Archive for Phillies

You’ve been waiting for it…Gabe Kapler finally made a change to his lineup, and it’s not one of those one-and-done types of changes. That — and some changes impacting catchers — are among the more notable developments in National League lineups this week.

Arizona

There are no major changes here. With Wilmer Flores (foot) going on the IL, there is an opportunity for Ildemaro Vargas to get some starts against left-handed starters. Perhaps Ketel Marte will play a little more often at second base, giving Jarrod Dyson a slight boost in playing time in center field. Maybe Dyson’s start against left-handed Matt Strahm on Tuesday was more than just a random occurrence.
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The ground ball has been Luke Jackson’s best friend this season, and on Tuesday night it was his worst enemy. Jackson is one of only two qualified relievers to have a ground ball rate above 70 percent (Zack Britton is the other), and that had helped him to compile a 2.31 ERA with six saves heading into the Braves’ series in San Francisco. He was called on to protect a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning on Tuesday night, and he began predictably enough by getting Evan Longoria to hit into a groundout. Then Brandon Crawford stung a line drive for a single, but Jackson struck out Steven Duggar to get on the cusp of his seventh save.

That’s when the parade of ground ball singles began. Kevin Pillar and Pablo Sandoval both got base hits on grounders that had xBAs of .250 and .090, respectively. Pillar’s single scored Crawford, and then both Pillar and pinch-runner Mac Williamson scored on a Joe Panik grounder that just eluded the outstretched glove of Ozzie Albies, giving the Giants a walk-off win.
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Even for a 10-game slate, Thursday wasn’t a very eventful day for closers or for relievers in general. The most interesting development may have been the Twins’ promotion of 32-year-old righty Austin Adams. That created the possibility of dueling Austin Adamses in their series against the Mariners. On Thursday night, neither Adams made an appearance in the Twins’ 11-6 victory.

The Twins’ summoning of Adams actually was an important development, as he replaced Trevor Hildenberger on the team’s active roster. Hildenberger was demoted to Triple-A Rochester late on Wednesday, shortly after retiring only one of four batters he faced in the ninth inning against the Angels. He had an effective first month of the season, and despite struggles in early May, Rocco Baldelli used him in some high leverage situations. However, Hildenberger had allowed seven runs over his last three appearances covering 2.1 innings.
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For the first three weeks of the season, the Phillies’ closer situation was as murky as any in the majors. That all seemed to change when, in the span of four days, Hector Neris picked up a pair of saves and also pitched a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at Colorado. Neris’ two performances at Coors Field were especially impressive, as he pitched 2.2 innings without allowing a baserunner and tallied five strikeouts.

Neris was the Phillies’ closer around this time last season, but by late May, he was out of the saves picture. The flyball-prone righty did not lack for whiffs or strikeouts, but too much of the contact he allowed was hard. That propensity hurt Neris again on Thursday night, as he gave up a game-winning home run to Starlin Castro in the 10th inning of the Marlins’ 3-1 victory. To his credit, Neris has been getting more ground balls so far this year, but flyballs and line drives have been hit against him with an average exit velocity of 98.0 mph.
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Perplexing bullpen situations did not get less perplexing on Sunday.

After the Phillies’ 3-1, 14-inning win over the Marlins, I am leaving their portion of the closer grid untouched, but that hardly means that the saves picture is getting clearer. Brian Anderson‘s home run in the bottom of the sixth inning knotted the game up at 1-1, and it would stay that way for seven-and-a-half innings. Because the Phillies were the visiting team, it’s hard to read too much into Gabe Kapler’s choice to use Pat Neshek in the seventh, Adam Morgan and Hector Neris in the eighth and David Robertson in the ninth and 10th.
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The past week in lineups has featured some interesting developments, including a couple of bottom-of-the-order hitters being highly productive and the outfield mixes for the Padres and Giants shifting a bit. I’m breaking the lineups down, team-by-team, starting…now.

Arizona

With Jake Lamb (quad) out for at least five more weeks, first base appears to belong to Christian Walker, as he had started every game since Lamb went on the IL up until Thursday night’s game against the Padres. Jarrod Dyson has started six of the seven games with a right-handed starter, all in center field. That hasn’t resulted in a reduced role for Ketel Marte, as he has started every game so far, playing second base when Dyson is in center field. It’s Wilmer Flores who has gotten squeezed out of playing time, starting only seven of the team’s 13 games.
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When trying to predict the machinations of the Phillies bullpen, it’s frustrating. Gabe Kapler’s very public about his disregard for traditional bullpen roles, so investing in any reliever on his team will accompany ups and downs. One day removed from Hector Neris notching his first save in a clean outing, Pat Neshek faced the Nationals at home with the save opportunity. Seranthony Dominguez turned in a clean sixth inning and garnered the win in relief with a strikeout. Adam Morgan notched his fourth hold with a clean seventh and a strikeout. David Robertson worked around a Victor Robles single and struck out one in the eight. Neshek did record his first save of the year, but allowed a home run to Brian Dozier along with a double to Anthony Rendon. Through 5.2 innings this year, Neshek owns a 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, but the average exit velocity of his five balls in play last night, 96.9 MPH. There’s no clear reliever to own in this bullpen, so target accordingly. Read the rest of this entry »

The other day, my wife asked me what my next column was going to be about, and I told her it would be my annual Bold Predictions piece. She wanted to contribute a prediction, and when I asked her what it would be, I realized it would be the perfect addition to this column.

So the first-ever Bold Prediction for Mary Beth Melchior is this: J.T. Realmuto will break the all-time single-season record for home runs for a catcher.
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As we anticipate Dallas Keuchel finding a new home this offseason, we should probably be wondering more about where he will be locating his sinker in 2019 than where his moving van is headed.

Sinker location has been key to Keuchel’s success, and his mostly-consistent five-year run has been nearly unique this decade. When he shaved more than two runs off his ERA from 2013 to 2014, Keuchel had a dramatic breakout that may have been most notable for what didn’t change. He didn’t throw substantially harder. He wasn’t notably better at throwing strikes or getting whiffs, chases or freezes. Keuchel did induce more grounders, but his biggest improvement came in his avoidance of hard contact. His rate dropped from 29.3 percent to 19.7 percent, and in the four seasons that followed, Keuchel continued to demonstrate that skill — as long as his sinker was down and away from righties.
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Soon enough, we will be mocking liked we’ve never mocked before, practicing for our real drafts that are now a mere three months away. Like many in the industry, I embarked on my mock drafting almost immediately after the season. I was fortunate to have taken part in Justin Mason’s 2 Early Mocks, and since then I have participated in a mock draft for Lindy’s and the ongoing Pitcher List Experts slow mock (I have made 18 picks out of 23 as of this writing).

Already, it is becoming apparent that I have a few favorites who I am targeting. There are 10 players who I have picked in at least two of the three drafts, and five in particular strike me as good values if their early mock draft positions hold steady into the real drafts come March.
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