Archive for Phil Hughes

For a different publication I have recently looked at the hitters that all three of Steamer, ZiPS, and Mike Podhorzer’s projections like more and like less than their current ADP. I like this little exercise as a tool to find value. It’s admittedly not a great way to identify sleepers in the sense of identifying breakout players. But it is a good way to identify sleepers in the sense of identifying guys who should give you good return on investment, even if the margins aren’t huge.

To do this little exercise, I simply ran the Pod and ZiPS projections through the old Zach Sanders z-score method, and I took the Steamer rankings from the Auction Calculator. I based the rankings on a 12-team mixed league with 25 roster slots (aka the standard ESPN setup). I then compared the rankings to the ESPN, Yahoo, and NFBC composite ADP from FantasyPros and found the 34 guys that all three projection systems like more than their ADP. Below I’ll discuss a few of the pitchers with the biggest gap between the rankings and ADP, and at the end of the post I’ll list all 34. On Wednesday I’ll look at the pitchers that all the rankings like less than their ADP. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday I took a look at the pitchers who have generated the most weak contact this year. Today I want to take a look at the other side of the coin and examine the guys getting hit the hardest. Let me start by saying I haven’t updated the data since I calculated it last Tuesday. Calculating the relevant data takes a whole lot of time, and I doubt it’s changed all that much after one turn through the rotation.

The reason the data takes so long to calculate is because I’m calculating sOPS+ for batted balls. You could find each pitcher’s sOPS+ on their b-ref page, but that takes walks into consideration, and walks obviously have nothing to do with batted ball quality. I have taken each pitcher’s sOPS+ for each specific batted ball type, factored in how often a pitcher generates each batted ball type and calculated their sOPS+ just on balls that are put into play.

If you’re unfamiliar with sOPS+, it is just the OPS allowed by each pitcher relative to league average. It’s similar to wRC+ or ERA-. In this case, numbers below 100 are better than average while those above 100 are worse.

The idea is that this is supposed to tell us more about the quality of the hits a pitcher is giving up. In this way the stat is much more relevant than something like BABIP because BABIP gives all hits equal weight. I like this stat for the same reason Michael Salfino likes ISO allowed. BABIP includes singles, which are the most common outcome and doesn’t even consider home runs. But sOPS+ considers all hit types and weights them. This means sOPS+ is much more likely to tell us if a pitcher has been ‘lucky’ than BABIP is. If you see a pitcher whose ERA is much lower than ERA estimators, sOPS+ will give you a much better indication of whether the pitcher is due to regress than BABIP will.

That said, here are the qualified starters with the worst sOPS+ so far this year. Read the rest of this entry »

The Minnesota Twins had the worst starting pitching in baseball in 2013. That’s no secret. It’s highly likely that the Twins starters didn’t get used very often in most standard fantasy formats as they were chock full of low strikeout arms with crummy peripherals and unlikely win prospects. But for Twins fans, and your fantasy team, there’s reason for some optimism in the Minnesota rotation in 2014.

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When I was on The Sleeper and the Bust with Mike Podhorzer a few weeks ago, he told me about his process for finding value in daily contests. The basic idea is that he breaks the rest-of-season ZIPS projections down to a fantasy points per game basis and then compares that to cost to find the biggest values. As I’ve learned, that process takes a bit of work, so I’m going to walk you through it.

The first step is to get the rest-of-season ZIPS projections into a spreadsheet. You can find daily updated projections from the ‘Projections’ tab at the top of the site. Then you need to eliminate the stats and columns that are not needed in order to calculate how many fantasy points a player is projected to score for the rest of the year. But don’t delete the games column; you’ll need it later to calculate projected points per game. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m probably not the only person checking the Weather Channel for reports of Hell freezing over. One day you’ve got All-Stars at every position and the next you have Juan Rivera, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, and Vernon Wells occupying starting roles. I actually find it an endearing crew of misfits to root for, but I’m not sure many Yankee fans would agree with me. But this post isn’t about the lineup, it’s about the rotation, where the Yankees have had at least a modicum of stability through the winter.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Phil Hughes – After starting the season 10-1, Hughes is just 3-3 in his last seven starts with a 5.58 ERA. He has been hurt with the long ball recently, and has allowed 9 HR in 40.1 IP. But the HR problem is almost exclusively at home. Of the 16 HR he has allowed this season, 15 of them have occurred in Yankee Stadium. Hughes has two road starts this week, including one against the Royals. His road ERA this year is 2.61 so make sure he remains active even despite his recent struggles.

Mike Leake – In his first 11 starts, Leake was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. In his last nine starts, he is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA. Over his last 53 IP, Leake has allowed 10 HR and 19 BB, compared to 28 Ks. In his first 73 IP, he surrendered just 4 HR. Nine of his 14 HR allowed have come at Great American Ball Park and Leake has two home starts this week. Slide Leake to the bench if at all possible.

Vin Mazzaro – In seven of his last eight games, Mazaro has hurled a Quality Start. He has a 4-2 record with a 3.10 ERA in that span. Most of that good pitching has come against sub-.500 teams but Mazzaro does get a game against the Mariners this week. Activate him this week, look for a good first start and then root for the Mr. Hyde half of Scott Baker to show up in Mazzaro’s second outing.

Vicente Padilla – Since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, Padilla is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA. In 60 IP he has 13 BB and 52 Ks. Yet he is owned in only 62 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is starting in just 38 percent. It’s a tough week for Padilla, with two East Coast road starts. His road splits are not pretty, but the majority of that damage came the first two games of the season, when he gave up 11 ER in 8.2 IP. Since he faces Kyle Kendrick and Mike Minor this week, the matchups are not awful so pick him up from the waiver wire and make him active.

Mike Pelfrey – In the beginning of the season, Pelfrey was riding high as the addition of a splitter helped him get off to a fast start, where he was 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a save in his first five outings. But since then he is 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA, or pretty much the same guy who went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 2009. In his last seven games, Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. He has 16 BB and 14 Ks in 30 IP in that span. This is an easy bench. And even if you think he is bound for regression – he does have a .468 BABIP in his last seven games – there are rumors that the Mets might skip one of his starts.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Price, Lester, E. Santana, J. Garcia, Dempster, Matsuzaka, Romero, Bumgarner, Baker, A. Sanchez, Jackson, Strasburg, Kennedy, F. Garcia, Zambrano, LeBlanc, Masterson, Matusz, Kendrick, Enright, Fister, Norris, Narveson, Galarraga, Parra, Arrieta, Moseley, Karstens, Davies, O’Sullivan.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to start. W, 3.29 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2 starts)
Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.53 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.184 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 6.10 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.839 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to sit. 3.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Silva – Advised to sit. W, 5.06 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.688 WHIP (2)

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

During the first three full years of his major league career, Zimmerman combined fantastic D with an above-average bat — his wRC+ from 2006-2008 was 110. Since then, the fourth pick in the 2005 draft has kept the slick leather and improved his lumber. He posted a 132 wRC+ in 2009 and holds a 160 wRC+ in 2010.

Zimmerman’s power production has soared, with his Isolated Power figures going from the high 100’s to .233 in ’09 and .295 this season. ISO tends to become reliable around 550 plate appearances, and Zimmerman has been hitting for elite pop for nearly 900 PAs now. His rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .289/.361/.522 triple-slash, with a .233 ISO. Remember Scott Rolen’s peak? Zimmerman, 25, is now that type of player.

Phil Hughes, Yankees

Though he has seemingly been a topic of conversation for years, Hughes turns just 24 this month. And he has been great as a starter — in 56.2 frames, he has 9.05 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.63 xFIP. The 6-5, 240 pound right-hander is doing a great job of getting ahead in the count, with a 67 first pitch strike percentage (58% MLB average), and he’s getting batters to chase out of the zone 34.8% (27.8% MLB average). That’s the sixth-highest chase rate among MLB starters tossing at least 40 innings.

How is Hughes getting the job done? With 92-93 MPH fastballs and high-80’s cutters that hitters can’t seem to lay off. The 2004 first-rounder has gone to his fastball about 52 percent, getting a strike 70.2 percent of the time (64.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 9.3% (6% MLB average). Batters have offered at the four-seamer 51.9 percent (45.2% MLB average).

The cutter, used about 27 percent of the time, has been thrown for a strike 75.1% (66.7% MLB average). It’s getting whiffs 10.4% (8.4% MLB average) and has been swung at 63.1% (50% MLB average). Hughes’ curve isn’t faring as well, with below-average strike, whiff and swing rates, but the fastball and cutter have made him death on righties (2.88 xFIP) and acceptable against lefties (4.40 xFIP).

If Hughes is still available in your league, well, what are you waiting for? ZiPS projects 8.51 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 3.68 FIP from here on out. The Yankees are going to be cautious with his workload, but he’ll continue to deal when he’s on the mound.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates

The 29-year-old switch-hitter has a Tolstoy-length injury history — a torn hamstring in 2006, a concussion as well as a wrist and ankle sprain in 2007, a fractured thumb in 2008 and a wrist injury that required surgery in 2009 — but when he’s not hurting, he’s mashing.

After posting a 126 wRC+ during a (moderately) healthy 2008, Doumit’s production dipped considerably in 2009 (85 wRC+). Some of that was poor luck on balls put in play, but he hacked at a career-high 33.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone.

In 2010, Doumit has chased 24.2% of off-the-plate pitches, and he’s drawing walks at a career-best 10.3% clip. His first pitch strike percentage is just 44.6 — that’s lowest among MLB batters with at least 100 trips to the plate. Doumit has a 127 wRC+ in 175 PA, with a .281/.371/.451 line. ZiPS projects a .277/.339/.458 showing for the rest of 2010, which is plenty useful for a backstop. But if Doumit continues to work the count well, his value gets a boost.

Of course, all of this is assuming he doesn’t hit the DL tomorrow.

Akinori Iwamura, Pirates

Picked up from Tampa Bay over the off-season for RHP Jesse Chavez (who was subsequently sent to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano), Iwamura has effectively lost the starting gig at the keystone spot for Pittsburgh to Neil Walker.

CHONE (108 wRC+) and ZiPS (107 wRC+) both forecast Iwamura for a solid offensive season, getting on base at a characteristically high rate while displaying little pop. Instead, Aki has a 49 wRC+ in 181 PA. He’s drawing a walk 12.1% of the time, but an incredibly low BABIP has made him one of the worst players in the majors to date.

During his major league career, Iwamura has a .330 BABIP. CHONE projected a .343 pre-season BABIP, and ZiPS .345. Aki’s 2010 BABIP? .198. He has had fewer batted balls classified as line drives (13.3%, compared to a 19.4% career average), and his ground ball rate has spiked to 58.6% (47.3% career average). That helps explain why his ISO is .076, below his pre-season projections of .109 from CHONE and .114 from ZiPS, as well as his career .108 mark.

Those aren’t promising developments, but Iwamura probably hasn’t totally lost it — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .262/.337/.369, with a .319 wOBA. Even so, the Pirates’ decision to give Walker (profiled here) a shot is defensible. The 24-year-old has a .262/.307/.449 rest-of-season ZiPS. It remains to be seen how he’ll handle second base, and he’s no top prospect these days. But Walker could be part of the next relevant Pirates team, while Iwamura won’t be.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

Since returning from a neck/back strain, Matsuzaka has been a pain in the neck to Sox fans and fantasy owners alike. Dice-K has 6.55 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 5.49 xFIP in 34.1 innings pitched. He has put 46.4% of his pitches within the zone (47.5% MLB average), and he’s getting first pitch strikes just 52.4%. Matsuzaka also isn’t missing bats — his swinging strike rate is 6.4%, compared to the 8-8.5% MLB average and his career 9.7% average.

During his first two seasons state-side, Dice-K was basically a league-average starter (4.31 xFIP in 2007, 4.70 in 2008). He was control-challenged, but at least compensated with good K rates. Last year’s shoulder ailment and 4.83 xFIP, coupled with more injury concerns and lousy pitching this season, make him hard to recommend. The upside here would appear to be a 4.25-4.50 ERA. Is that worth all the aggravation?

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Beckham went from Athens to the South Side in short order, putting up a .270/.347/.460 triple-slash and a 112 wRC+ in 2009. CHONE (115 wRC+) and ZiPS (111 wRC+) predicted more of the same for the 23-year-old, and Beckham’s value received an extra boost fantasy-wise with his shifting from third to second base.

Flash forward two months into the 2010 season, and Beckham is owned in just 42% of Yahoo leagues. He has a ghastly .196/.286/.239 line in 187 PA, with a 45 wRC+.

It would be rash to sell low on Beckham in keeper leagues, as he remains a valuable long-term talent, but he looks lost at the plate at the moment. After swinging at 24.8% of out-of-zone pitches during his rookie year, Gordon has gone fishing 30.6% this season. His groundball rate is up 10 percentage points (40.4% to 50.4%), and his pop up rate has increased — 14%, compared to 11.9% last year and the 7-8% big league average. Beckham’s .043 ISO puts him in the illustrious company of Jason Kendall and teammate Juan Pierre.

He’s not going to keep a .238 BABIP, but Beckham is surely testing the patience of owners who have stuck with him through his struggles.