Archive for Padres

Two factors could make this a very intriguing trade deadline. First, with seven teams within seven games of each other in the Wild Card race in the American League along with 11 teams in the National League, the sellers face tough decisions. Second, due to a rule change, the July 31st trade date will be a hard deadline with no waiver transactions in August. So, the onset of the second half will not only dictate which players may be traded, it could change how teams finish within their divisions. Read the rest of this entry »

Kirby Yates doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this column, because he has literally been automatic. Entering Sunday’s series finale with the Pirates, he had converted all 26 of his save opportunities this season. Only twice had he allowed more than one hit in an appearance, and he had yet to allow more than two hits in an outing.

Yates entered uncharted territory on Sunday, as he did not protect the Padres’ 7-4 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning. His inning began with Elias Diaz reaching as a result of a Manny Machado error, and he subsequently allowed an Adam Frazier double and RBI singles to Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds. Yates would not allow any more hits, but thanks to Starling Marte‘s sacrifice bunt that advanced Newman and Reynolds, Melky Cabrera’s lightly-hit grounder down the first base line was enough to bring Newman home to tie the game. Cabrera was out at first, and then Yates retired Colin Moran to send the game into extra innings.
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Owning Raisel Iglesias comes with its ups and downs. His multiple inning usage can cap save totals year to year, but he’s saved 71 since the start of 2017. Last night, Iglesias once again struggled with his command leading to his removal from the game in the ninth inning without recording a save. Instead, Iglesias gets his second hold of the season to the dismay of his owners. In the eighth inning, Iglesias entered with a runner on base and one out. He induced a pop out to shortstop by Robinson Chirinos but walked Tyler White in the next at-bat. Iglesias ended the inning on a Tony Kemp ground out and returned for the ninth inning. But, he walked lead-off hitter Myles Straw then retired Alex Bregman on a pop out to first base. Read the rest of this entry »

Another packed Friday night of high leverage events makes for a busy Saturday trying to sift through them. Starting with a wild game in Coors Field, the Rockies blew a seven run lead after the seventh inning, the largest blown lead, win or lose, since June 15th of 2017 according to Elias Sports. Mike Dunn started the ninth inning with the Rockies ahead by six. However, he served up four hits, including a three-run home run to Hunter Renfroe, before departing with four runs against while recording one out. Wade Davis entered allowing back-to-back singles to Wil Myers and Ian Kinsler before getting Austin Hedges to lineout. But, a wild pitch during Manuel Margot’s at-bat ending up in a walk loaded the bases for a Fernando Tatis Jr. two-RBI single before ending the inning with a strikeout of Josh Naylor. Read the rest of this entry »

For a change, the meat of this week’s lineup update on the Padres does not involve the outfield. Also, changes could be on the way for the Cardinals and Nationals. Read all about it in the team-by-team lineup breakdown for each National League squad.

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have faced only one left-handed starter in their last nine games, but that has not meant steady playing time for Jarrod Dyson. He and Wilmer Flores have been splitting time against righties (with Ketel Marte typically moving to center field when Flores plays second base), so Dyson has started only five of the last nine games.
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May the fourth be with you, and the force be strong in the unyielding chase for saves. During a game with twists and turns in the win probabilities, the Giants outlasted the Reds despite trailing by eight runs at the end of the third inning. Raisel Iglesias incurred his second blown save giving up a game tying home run to Stephen Vogt in the top of the ninth inning. It’s been a tumultuous season for Iglesias, who seemed to be turning the corner of late, but he’s been asked to record more than three outs in three of his last four outings and five times of his 14 outings this season.

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Once again, owners of Anthony Swarzak may be sleepless due to his recent performances with Seattle. Swarzak incurred his second blown over his last three appearances coughing up a game tying home run to Shin-Soo Choo in the ninth inning. Of more importance, Swarzak’s allowed a run in three straight outings within this stretch. After throwing 38 pitches on Thursday, Roenis Elias threw two more innings last night. Elias did record two clean innings with two strikeouts garnering his second win in relief this season. He’s been a solid add in fantasy due to his ability to close out games of late with four saves since the start of April. With Swarzak scuffling of late, keep tabs on Connor Sadzeck. Read the rest of this entry »

In my most recent post, I lamented that I waited too long to take Greg Allen in my TGFBI draft, even though his ADP is well outside the top 300. It was as crushing a blow as one can have in Round 18 of a 15-team draft, as players with the potential to steal 20-plus bases are hard to come by, even in the earlier rounds. THE BAT projects 22 players to steal at least 20 bases this season, and Steamer projects only 19 players to reach that threshold. (ATC is more optimistic, admitting 29 players into the 20-plus projected steals club.)

Worse yet, a number of those players are across-the-board contributors (most notably Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor) who will be long gone before the time you realize you need to catch up on steals. The reality is that it’s hard to make up for lost ground in stolen bases in the final rounds of your drafts, but that’s precisely the time you can toss up a Hail Mary. There are a handful of players who not only could give you 15 steals, but some moderate power as well, making it more worth your while to target them.
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Initially, I was not going to include the Padres in this series about bullpens on non-contending teams. I realize that sounds ludicrous, because I don’t actually expect the Padres to hold their own against the Dodgers and Rockies. My focus on selecting teams, however, has been more about effort to contend than about the current makeup of a given roster. Still, even with their pursuit of players like Corey Kluber and Miguel Andujar and all of their emerging young talent, the team could very well be sellers at the trading deadline.

That means incumbent closer Kirby Yates could find himself pitching the latter part of the season someplace where he will have fewer opportunities for saves and fish tacos. There is a case to be made that Yates would be worth keeping around for the 2020 season when the Padres could be in a much better position to contend. However, if they wanted to trade Yates in order to fill another need or get reinforcements for the farm system, they have enough depth to provide a replacement closer and still have quality relievers for other roles.
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Trying to discern between second half breakouts as seeds sown for growth compared to a potential bust makes preseason preparation exciting. One name sure to be popular in the new year will be Franmil Reyes. During his 87 game sample in the majors last year, Reyes launched 16 home runs with a .280/.340/.498 slash line in 261 at-bats. It did not come without some adversity. He arrived to the majors with a propensity to hit for power along with racking up strikeouts.

This proved to be true during Reyes’ first 104 at-bats during May, June and nine games in July prior to his demotion. Reyes hit six home runs but only walked seven times with 42 strikeouts resulting in a .221/.270/.423 slash line. Less than ideal. Getting a reset in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, Reyes finished with a robust 16 home runs in only 58 games at Triple-A with a .324/.428/.614 line. This led to his return to San Diego on August fourth.

From this point forward, Reyes surged. Over his last 157 at-bats he scored 22 runs with six doubles, 10 home runs, 24 RBI and an eye popping .318/.385/.548 slash. He also hit safely in 20 of his 25 games in September benefiting fantasy owners who held tight or took another chance on Reyes upon his return to the majors. More encouraging, Reyes walked 17 times compared to 38 strikeouts in this time sample, showing growth in his plate discipline after his reboot in the minors.

During Reyes’ time at Triple-A, he walked 14.8 percent of the time versus a 23.6 strikeout percentage. While this rate of discipline should not carry over to the majors, there’s room for growth seeing his 9.7 and 9.8 walk rates in August and September provide hope going forward. In these same two months, Reyes reduced his strikeout percentages to 23.6 and 20.6 respectively as well. In both May and June, Reyes produced strikeout rates at or above 40 percent.

When trying to assess his potential average in 2019, some will depend on his ability to build on the gains in discipline during his second go around in the majors while he continues to adjust to hitting at this level. Reyes will also need to improve against right-handed pitching if he’s going to hit at or above his Steamer projection. At Triple-A, Reyes hit .359/.519/.564 against southpaws while slashing a very respectable .316/.404/.626 against right-handed pitchers in his limited 216 at-bat sample last season. When going back to his 2017 Double-A statistics, Reyes hit appreciably better against right-handed pitching (.292/.349/.514) than he did against left-handed pitching (.147/.233/.293).

While this intimates Reyes remains a work in progress, he should be able to improve upon his splits from last year in the majors. Reyes hit .247/.298/.449 versus right-handed pitching with 10 home runs in 178 at-bats. Against southpaws, he slashed .349/.426/.602 with six home runs in 83 at-bats. It’s tough to predict how Reyes will fare versus each type of pitcher in 2019, but planning on some movement to the mean in each category seems salient. So, improved plate discipline baked in with past production versus each type of pitcher should allow Reyes to hold his own going forward.

Transitioning to his batted ball data, Reyes should be able to achieve his Steamer projection of 69 runs, 28 home runs, 79 RBI, two stolen bases and a .251/.319/.456 line in 531 at-bats over 146 games. With home run production down last year, these will not be numbers to overlook. When trying to gauge his home run totals, Reyes displayed power throughout the minors along with the 32 he hit across two levels last season. But, trying to predict a total higher than Steamer’s will be difficult. Could he surpass this total? Absolutely. However, paying for more could be risky.

According to Statcast data, Reyes averaged an exit velocity of 96.4 MPH on his fly balls and line drives put into play of his 181 batted ball events. Last year, Reyes made the most of his 33.3 and 23.9 fly ball percentages from August fourth on, but he’s not recorded a season with a fly ball percentage above 40 percent, once, during his debut season in 2012 in Rookie ball. It’s encouraging Reyes produced a hard hit percentage (44.2) and home run per fly ball rate (29.6 percent) above the major league averages. He’s also within five-plus percent of the major league average in fly ball percentage. Not trying to downplay his home run upside, but his ground ball rates of 45.8 percent in August and 53.5 percent in September cannot be ignored when projecting his best case scenario.

Using xSTATS data, Reyes had an expected home run total of 12.7 last year with an expected slash of .268/.330/.465, an xBABIP of .346 and .OBA of .344 last year. These numbers along with his Steamer projection translate to upside. It’s apparent Reyes will be targeted from the 10th round on. In the #2EarlyMocks orchestrated by Justin Mason, Reyes carried an average draft position of 208.1 with a high pick at 165 and a low of 260 within the nine leagues. Due to his strong finish along with his power despite the ground ball to fly ball rates, Reyes will be worth the risk. As intimated above, using the Steamer projection as a guide to his baseline value, targeting “Franimal” to balance a draft with power and an average which will not tax the category makes perfect sense. Reyes could hit 30 home runs, or 24. Either way, he’s a half season hero who deserves the hype.