Archive for Padres

The Rays agreed to trade Tommy Pham, along with two-way prospect Jake Cronenworth, to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe and middle infield prospect Xavier Edwards on Thursday night, but this isn’t exactly a trade impact piece. I don’t see the deal having much of an impact on the fantasy value of any of the players involved, or at least not enough of an impact that the changes of scenery are likely to affect my 2020 rankings.

In sizing up how the trade might affect Pham’s fantasy value, I noticed something odd in his month-by-month trends from 2019. He had never recorded a BABIP below .333 in any of his four previous seasons, and through the end of May, Pham had a .346 BABIP that looked quite normal for him. Then, all of a sudden, he stopped BABIPing. Pham’s rates for the next three months were .288. ,265 and .303, though he did rebound for a .338 BABIP in September. His .299 BABIP over those four months combined is normal for most hitters but unusually low for him.
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A hitter doesn’t have to be selective in order to produce, but it certainly helps. Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Marcus Semien and Anthony Rendon were all among the top 10 percent of qualified hitters in terms of O-Swing% this season. In other words, they were among the choosiest hitters, swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone at exceedingly low rates.

Eddie Rosario, Tim Anderson, Javier Báez, Jeff McNeil, Nicholas Castellanos, Eduardo Escobar and Rafael Devers were in the bottom 10 percent for O-Swing%, proving that you can still be valuable in fantasy (and in real, actual baseball) without having even decent plate discipline. Some members of this group are simply good bad-ball hitters. Rosario, McNeil, Escobar and Devers were well above average at making contact with out-of-zone pitches. McNeil also made relatively high-quality contact on those offerings, posting an xwOBA (.314) that was 16 points above the average on out-of-zone pitches for hitters who saw at least 1,000 pitches this season.
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If, at this time a year ago, I had told you that between Manny Machado and Marcus Semien, one was going to finish sixth among shortstop-eligible players in 5×5 Roto value and one was going to finish 16th, there would have been no question about which player was going to rank where. But all of us (except for the most prescient) would have been wrong. Semien trailed only Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Ketel Marte and Jonathan Villar, while Machado — who played in all but six of the Padres’ games — amassed less value than either Elvis Andrus or Amed Rosario.
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During a limited slate of eight game, Monday could provide some clarity in the Rockies bullpen. Even though Jairo Diaz suffered his second blown save, he pitched in the ninth inning working after Carlos Estevez. Diaz recorded a strikeout of Dansby Swanson starting the ninth with a one run lead but yielded a triple to Francisco Cervelli. Billy Hamilton replaced Cervelli as a pinch runner and Diaz walked Rafael Ortega trying to set up a double play opportunity. However, a sacrifice fly by Adeiny Hechavarria tied the game. Diaz rebounded striking out Ronald Acuna to end the inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Not so long ago, when it came to pull-heavy power hitters, there was no equal to Brian Dozier. Based on developments currently unfolding this season, the genre could explode in 2020.

Back in 2016, Dozier was unique among major league hitters in his ability to pull flyballs at an extremely high rate consistently. Among hitters who launched at least 100 flies in both 2015 and 2016, Dozier was the only batter to exceed a 35 percent pull rate on flyballs in both seasons. He essentially lapped the field, surpassing a 40 percent rate in both campaigns. Then Dozier was the only hitter to pull off the feat in both 2016 and 2017.
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The Diamondbacks’ promotion of Josh Rojas has created some unexpected fallout, while the Rockies, Phillies and Cardinals have given their outfields a new look. Here are the most noteworthy lineup changes for each National League team.

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have used a number of different platoons throughout the season, but a brand new one may be emerging between David Peralta and Adam Jones. Peralta has been out of the lineup for four of the last six games featuring a lefty starter, while Jones has started only once over the last seven games with a righty starter, including Friday night’s game against Jeff Samardzija and the Giants. The apparent beneficiary of Peralta’s and Jones’ reduced playing time is Rojas, who has started four of the team’s five games since he was called up to make his major league debut on Monday. For the one game he didn’t start, Tim Locastro got the nod in left field over Peralta versus lefty Kyle Freeland. Locastro has since been demoted to Triple-A Reno.
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Thursday night’s schedule consisted of only eight games, and even for a small slate, there weren’t many high leverage situations to speak of. It was a big night, however, for some long relievers, so let’s check in on them and what they might have to offer us in fantasy.

Luis Cessa was one of only three relievers to notch a save on Thursday night, but his required him to pitch the final three innings of the Yankees’ 12-6 win over the Blue Jays. The 27-year-old righty has had issues with the long ball, and the one run he allowed was a Reese McGuire solo home run — the 11th homer he has allowed over 58.1 innings. He also tallied five strikeouts, giving him 61 on the season, which is as many as Ken Giles has and more than either Kenley Jansen or Sean Doolittle has. It was Cessa’s first save of the season, so he is nowhere close to Giles, Jansen or Doolittle in value, but in deeper formats,  you may not be able to find a reliever who can help more with strikeouts.
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By this time next week, several teams in the National League will probably have lineups with a different look. For now, managers are mostly tinkering on the margins. Still, there are a few players who have recently seen their playing time take a turn for the better or the worse.

Arizona

David Peralta made his return to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday after missing three weeks with a shoulder injury. He pinch-hit on Wednesday, but on Friday he started, and Christian Walker was the regular who made way for him. Going forward, Peralta’s presence could impact Jarrod Dyson and Tim Locastro, who had been splitting time in left field. A change in the batting order could be in the works, as Dyson and Locastro have been serving as the leadoff hitters. Peralta has batted exclusively in the third and fourth spots so far this season.
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The Rangers have not had a save opportunity since June 27, including in Sunday’s loss to the Astros. Yet Shawn Kelley, who had not pitched in a game in nine days, was warming up to enter the game with a three-run deficit in the eighth inning with two outs. Kelley felt soreness in his right biceps while throwing his warmup pitches and exited the game before throwing an official pitch. He is now expected to undergo an MRI.

Given that the Rangers have gone close to a month without a save opportunity, it’s hard to get a handle on what Chris Woodward’s preferences might be for handling save situations if Kelley has to miss time. Also, with the Rangers having lost seven games in a row and falling in the wild card standings, we can’t count on any particular reliever still being with the team on the other side of the July 31 trade deadline. However, it is highly unlikely they would trade Jose Leclerc, who signed a four-year, $14.75 million contract back in March, and it is also hard to see them dealing Chris Martin, who won’t be arbitration eligible until 2021.
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With less than three weeks to the trade deadline for teams to formulate decisions, bullpens will play a pivotal role in deciding whether to buy, sell or hold. Philadelphia lost on a two run home run allowed by Hector Neris to Juan Soto in the ninth inning yesterday. On the surface, it seems like a blip. However, this loss puts the Phillies on the outside looking due to the Brewers comeback win over the Giants. Injuries have ravaged the depth in Philadelphia’s bullpen but Neris took over as closer early on and did not look back. But, he’s blown two of his last three save chances and served up a home run in consecutive outings spanning the All-Star break.

Neris has shown the ability to bounce back from adversity all season long, so he should remain in his present role. Neris also issue a walk with the bases loaded in the eighth upon replacing Adam Morgan who allowed singles to Soto and Ryan Zimmerman preceding Victor Robles reaching on an error prior to the fateful ninth inning meltdown. Keep tabs on Tommy Hunter who turned in a clean seventh inning for his first hold and has not yielded a run in five outings since his return from the injured list. Philadelphia also awaits the return of David Robertson by the end of the month. (Update, post publish the Phillies placed Tommy Hunter on the injured reserve and promoted Edubray Ramos)

For the Nationals, Sean Doolittle closed the door on his 20th save working around a single by Maikel Franco. Since Washington prefers not to overwork Doolittle, he should receive Sunday off which opens the door for the Fernando Rodney experience in the ninth inning if a save presents itself. Wander Suero recorded his second win retiring the only two hitters he faced in the bottom of the eighth before the Nationals rally in the top of the ninth.

With teams circling the San Francisco bullpen as the trade deadline looms, Sam Dyson struggled during his outing on Saturday. Dyson coughed up three straight doubles to Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar and Keston Hiura resulting in two runs then a single to Eric Thames before exiting. All told, Dyson gets tagged with four hits and three earned runs to his ledger without recording an out. This results in his first blown save all year and the first runs he’s given up since June 20th in an ugly appearance. Derek Holland walked Yasmani Grandal then induced a sacrifice fly by Orlando Arcia before retiring Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to end the inning.

Just when it seemed safe for the Brewers, Jeremy Jeffress entered for the save chance with Josh Hader unavailable. Jeffress walked lead-off batter Brandon Crawford then allowed a one out singles to Austin Slater and Stephen Vogt. Two runs scored on Vogt’s single but only one earned due to an error by Lorenzo Cain with the ball going under his glove letting the second run score. Freddy Peralta was in line for the win walking two and striking out three in the top of the eighth, but Jeffress garners the win after the Brewers rallied in the bottom of the frame. Reyes Moronta took over in the ninth of a tied game but an error by Brandon Crawford allowed Ryan Braun to reach base. Moronta rebounded striking out Moustakas and Aguilar before issuing a walk to Hiura. Ben Gamel then doubled driving in the winning run and handing Moronta his fifth loss. Who says high leverage does not matter?

Another game deciding by the bullpens occurred in Texas. Roberto Osuna held on for his 20th save in the 11th inning. Osuna did serve up a lead-off double to Nomar Mazara who later scored on a Delino DeShields Jr. single during the inning. It’s been a rocky start to the second half for Osuna giving up runs in consecutive games along with two hits and a walk in each appearance. Of more concern, the four walks in his last three games after yielding only five in his previous 36 innings of work. Ryan Pressly struck out two in the eighth inning and Josh James gets his fourth win working two scoreless innings walking one while striking out two. Brett Martin of Texas takes the loss after giving up two runs in the top of the 11th on a Jose Altuve double and Myles Straw single.

Last, but not least, the Braves outlasted the Padres in San Diego. Kirby Yates suffered his second blown save entering the eighth inning after a lead-off walk issued by Gerardo Reyes forced him from the game. Yates allowed a single to Nick Markakis then induced a fielder’s choice ground out by Ozzie Albies but Josh Donaldson advanced to third with one out. A sacrifice fly by Austin Riley scored Donaldson tying the game handing Yates the blown save letting an inherited runner score. Yates finished two innings yielding two hits and striking out four. Luis Perdomo imploded in the top of the 10th giving up two hits, three earned runs and two walks for his second loss.

Sean Newcomb benefits for his third win after he walked two and struck out two in the bottom of the ninth for Atlanta. Luke Jackson once again held on for his 16th save but it was a wild ride. Jackson served up a solo home run to Manny Machado starting the 10th inning then faced a bases loaded situation with two outs but struck out Perdomo ending the game. All told, Jackson’s line did not look pretty with two hits, an earned run and two walks with a strikeout, but a save’s a save, right? Anthony Swarzak worked the eighth inning walking one and striking out one in his first outing off of the injured list. Swarzak’s been a stabilizing force for the Braves recording a 0.49 ERA in 18.1 innings during 18 appearances with the team since his acquisition.

Before delving into the Quick Hits, something to track in Toronto. Daniel Hudson notched his second save on Saturday afternoon with Ken Giles not available. Giles last worked on July fourth against Boston. This tweet updated to say the massage happened during the All-Star break, but be aware of Giles health going forward:

Charlie Montoyo says Ken Giles suffered some nerve inflammation in his elbow from a massage earlier in the day. He’s day to day per manager. #BlueJays

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) July 13, 2019

It could be nothing or it could be something, time will tell. Do know, it was Derek Law throwing with Hudson providing traffic in the ninth before recording the last out on a strikeout of Luke Voit. Also note David Phelps fired 1.1 clean innings of setup relief for his first hold with three strikeouts. This Blue Jays bullpen could be gutted at the deadline so it’s not crazy to think Phelps, with health, could get saves at some point. Stranger things have happened.

Quick Hits: Mychal Givens notched his seventh save firing two clean inning with two strikeouts in Game 1 versus the Rays. It’s his first save since June 11th. Richard Bleier gets his first win walking one in a scoreless seventh inning…Colin Poche suffers his second blown save and loss coughing up a two run home run to Stevie Wilkerson. Yes, Poche has blown the save in two of his last three outings, but heed his 27:1 K:BB to start his career. Emilio Pagan pitched a clean eighth with two strikeouts and Diego Castillo made his first appearance off the injured list in Game 2 recording two outs…Getting in work, Alex Colome allowed a hit, an earned run and a walk with a strikeout. Aaron Bummer tossed a clean eighth inning…Blake Treinen yielded two hits, two earned runs and a walk with no strikeouts. He’s given up runs in two of his three appearances since returning from the injured list…Ian Kennedy locked down his 13th save with a clean ninth striking out one. Kennedy’s converted 11 of his last 12 save chances with a 1.89 ERA and 19:4 K:BB since May 30th…Taylor Rogers pitched a clean ninth with a strikeout, but with a four run lead. Blake Parker logged 1.1 clean innings with two strikeouts for his eighth hold…Save number 20 for Edwin Diaz working around a hit with a strikeout. He’s converted four saves in a row. Seth Lugo gets his 13th hold working a clean eighth with two strikeouts….Strong outing for Carlos Martinez striking out three of the four batters he faced for his fourth save. Giovanny Gallegos recorded his seventh hold striking out two in 1.2 innings…A potential injury to Steven Wright could open the door for a Darwinson Hernandez promotion. Since transitioning to the bullpen at Triple-A, Hernandez has retired all 10 hitters he’s faced as a reliever…Two clean innings with two strikeouts for Julio Urias in Boston but he did not pitch the ninth so no save chance, sigh…Jared Hughes gets the one out win pitching in Colorado prior to a five run rally by the Reds. Michael Lorenzen did record his sixth hold with a clean inning.