Archive for Norichika Aoki

After 7 disappointing years under Jack Zduriencik (which followed 5 soul-crushing seasons under Bill Bavasi), new Mariners’ GM, Jerry Dipoto, raced up I-5 with a mandate to bring consistency and a fresh approach to the Emerald City. Faced with a number of holes to fill, the former Angels exec has already made a series of moves signaling a shift in the Mariners’ philosophy towards defense and on-base ability, a welcomed change from that of the last regime’s affinity for low on-base, immobile power hitters who strike out a lot. Huzzah.

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You know a team failed to make a big offseason splash when their biggest highlight is when some Grammy-winning artist from New Zealand says her big hit was inspired by George Brett signing a bunch of baseballs. But so it goes for the Kansas City Royals as they made just a few minor tweaks to get themselves ready for a run at the playoffs in 2014. One of the tweaks, though, was the acquisition of a new right fielder, somewhat of a problem spot for them last season. So let’s take a look at that move and what fantasy owners can expect from the Kansas City outfield this season. Read the rest of this entry »

This weekend I had the opportunity to attend Saber Seminar in Boston. It was a wonderful event full of presentations by some amazing people like members of the Red Sox front office staff, Harry Pavilidis and Dan Brooks, Keith Law, and Fangraphs’ own Dave Cameron and Bill Petti among others. I began writing this within 30 minutes of getting back from the airport last night.

For the purposes of daily fantasy strategy, the most interesting presentation of the weekend was that of SABR president, Vince Gennaro. Vince was lamenting the usage of batter-versus-pitcher (BVP) data by both managers and TV broadcasts. Likewise, I hate it when I see daily contest players rely on that data. Vince noted the small sample size issue with BVP data, but presumably he has also read the portion of The Book that proved BVP data is not predictive.

Vince wants to find a better way to play match ups. I assume he’s coming at it from the angle of finding a better way for managers to play match ups and to make both lineup and in game decisions. But his work is equally applicable to daily fantasy strategy. Vince looks at the following five categories in an attempt to determine the best match ups: Read the rest of this entry »

Home runs are obviously the best way to pick up points in a Draftstreet contest. You get credit for a point per total base, so home runs are worth four points. But in reality they are worth at least seven points because you also get a point and a half each for the run and the RBI. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to go for power in every slot on a salary cap team. The guys who hit consistently for power are priced accordingly, and you can’t afford to take a consistent power hitter in each slot.

Find yourself a stud or two with a favorable lefty-righty matchup against a bad pitcher and try to get your power there. But elsewhere, you’re going to have to find points in other ways. And one other way is to identify good situations for base stealers. A stolen base is worth two points, but really it’s worth 2.75-3 points because the player has to walk (.75 points) or get a single (one point) in order to attempt a steal.

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1. 70% of opening day closers won’t still have their jobs by the end of the year…

You don’t need me to tell you that closers are easily replaced, and so saying that we’ll see changes in the ninth inning isn’t really that bold. So if we’re going to make this exciting, let’s say that more than a full two-thirds of closers won’t last the season, either through injury or ineffectiveness. That may sound like a high number, but then again, remember who teams were counting on to finish games for them last April — guys like Alfredo Aceves, Javy Guerra, Jordan Walden, Brett Myers, Heath Bell, & Matt Capps. Even top-tier closers like Mariano Rivera & Brian Wilson weren’t immune, though of course for other reasons. By my count, only 10 closers made it wire-to-wire, and a few more (Carlos Marmol, Huston Street, etc) had to deal with changes at some point in the season. This really drives the point home that you can almost always find saves somewhere. The bell tolls for thee, Sergio Romo & Jim Johnson.
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Last December, the Brewers won the posting for 30-year-old Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki. The fee going back to his Japanese team was only $2.5 million; the deal he eventually signed in January was for another $2.5 million, but spread over two years (along with a team-friendly $1.5 million option for 2014). Aoki was so lightly thought of that he wasn’t really even in competition for a starting job in a Milwaukee outfield that already featured Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez, & Corey Hart. When Eno Sarris posted our initial thoughts about him in January, the most optimistic view was mostly, “well, at least Braun’s suspension is going to open up 50 games worth of playing time.” As we of course later learned, even that didn’t happen, leaving Aoki’s situation uncertain at best.

So when we say that expectations for Aoki were low entering the season, that might even be overstating it. Fantasy players routinely ignored him in drafts, and for good reason. What was the point in bothering with a largely unknown import who was expected to get little playing time, especially after – fairly or (mostly) unfairly – the last Japanese position player, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, had flopped so spectacularly? Read the rest of this entry »

With just three and a half weeks to go in the season, you should be targeting specific categories in which you can move most easily. Even if it’s just a couple of points, if you can take them, take them now.  In looking at the standings of my roto leagues, stolen bases still looks like the easiest category in which a move can be made in a short period of time, so here are readily available two guys who you might consider picking up to get a quick speed boost. Read the rest of this entry »