Archive for Mike Leake

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 5.

R.A. Dickey – Last year’s feel-good story is off to a rough start this year, with a 1-3 record and an ERA nearly a full run higher than 2010. Walks have been a big problem for Dickey, as his 4.09 BB/9 is way above last year’s 2.17 mark. But after giving up 12 BB in his first 17.1 IP, Dickey has allowed just 3 BB in his last 15.2 innings. With home games against the Giants and Dodgers, look for Dickey to get back to last year’s results, where he was 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA at Citi Field, and get him into your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Last year, Hernandez got off to a hot start, which prompted Dave Cameron to call him: The Luckiest Man Alive. Regression hit in his final 21 starts (5-9, 4.48 ERA) and his overall numbers were what we would expect, save for a 5.8 HR/FB rate. Flash forward to this year and his 2011 numbers are similar to what he produced overall in 2010. His xFIP is nearly identical to what it was a year ago, but his ERA is 1.31 runs lower than his xFIP due mainly to a low HR rate. Here are the HR/FB rates for Hernandez the past five seasons, starting with 2007: 11.8, 10.7, 8.4, 5.8, 3.4.

Regression will hit Hernandez again this year, but the problem with regression is while we know it’s coming, we’re just not sure when. We do know that Hernandez faces two teams in the Phillies and Marlins this week that are below average in the National League in hitting homers. While Hernandez has had some trouble on the road this year, my feeling is that the good luck with HR will continue another week and I am going to have him in my lineup.

Jair Jurrjens – Since being activated from the disabled list, Jurrjens has been masterful in three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA. While that is accompanied by all of the unsustainable marks you would expect, like a 92.6 LOB%, one thing Jurrjens has impressed with and might be able to continue with going forward is his K/BB ratio. It currently sits at 2.80, thanks to a 2.05 BB/9. He goes up against the Brewers and Phillies, two teams that are below average in the NL drawing walks. Both teams are above average in scoring runs, so it certainly will not be an easy week for Jurrjens, but I like his chances.

Mike Leake – In a bit of unusual circumstance, Leake is 3-0 yet his xFIP (3.58) is lower than his ERA (4.40). In his second season in the majors, Leake has upped his K rate, going from a 5.92 K/9 a season ago to 7.63 this season. In his last three starts, Leake has 18 Ks in 20 IP. He’s pitched a Quality Start in four of his five games this year, stumbling only in a road game in Arizona. This week Leake squares off against the Astros and Cubs, two teams with a combined 19-30 record. Get the youngster into your lineup this week.

Josh Tomlin – A perfect five-for-five in Quality Starts, the previously unheralded Tomlin has been embraced by fantasy players, with ownership rates in CBS Sports leagues higher than Dickey, Hernandez and Leake. The righty Tomlin has an average fastball velocity of just 87.6, but throws four other pitches, does a nice job mixing them and has positive Pitch Type Values on all of his non-fastball offerings.

But while it has been fun to watch Tomlin come out of nowhere, he does have a .179 BABIP and a 91.7 LOB%. With two West Coast road starts this week against the A’s and Angels, this may be the time that regression shows up. Look for alternatives to Tomlin this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lester, Verlander, Haren, Beckett, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Gallardo, Lohse, Harang, Ogando, A. Sanchez, McClellan, Davis, Holland, Bumgarner, Guthrie, McCarthy, Colon, Buehrle, Rogers, Francis, Happ, Bedard, Penny, McDonald, Volstad, Chatwood, Gorzelanny, Ross, Saunders, Vogelsong, Bergesen, Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 3 pitchers and how they fared.

Beachy- Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.583 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.400 WHIP, 15 IP, 0 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 10 ER
Vargas – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, 11 IP, 8 ER
Zambrano – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 13 IP. 6 ER

The first three slots in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation are set — Johnny Cueto’s locked up long-term, Bronson Arroyo will keep on strumming Fenders and tossing benders after getting his own contract extension, and Edinson Volquez looks to polish his post-Tommy John stuff in front of paying crowds once his visa situation allows him to do so. But who will fill the fourth and fifth spots for the defending NL Central champs? Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates (listed in alphabetical order), along with their 2011 projections from Oliver, PECOTA and ZiPS.

Homer Bailey

Oliver: 7.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.61 ERA
PECOTA: 7.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 ERA
ZiPS: 7.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

Bailey, a former top 10 prospect who took some beatings as a 21 and 22 year-old breaking into the majors, made considerable progress on the mound last season. The difference between his 2009 and 2010 ERAs was minuscule — 4.53 in ’09, and 4.46 in ’10 — but his xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, improved from 4.58 to 3.91. Bailey upped his K rate from 6.83 per nine to 8.26, and he pared his free passes from 4.13 per nine to 3.3.

That whiff rate may come down some this year — his swinging strike rate last season was just average (8.4 percent), and his contact rate (81.8%) was actually a percentage point above the big league norm. Plus, Bailey does come with durability concerns. He missed nearly three months last season with shoulder inflammation, from late May to mid-August. Out of minor league options, Bailey looks to be the favorite for the fourth rotation spot. Maybe he’ll never be a phenom, but he’s capable of posting an ERA better than the league average if he can avoid further injury woes.

Aroldis Chapman

Oliver (as RP): 9.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.91 ERA
PECOTA: 10.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.36 ERA
ZiPS (split role): 10.6 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.00 ERA

By all accounts, Chapman is headed to the bullpen to start the season. As the above projections suggest, the Cuban’s triple-digit heat will elicit lots of late swings; hitters might just want to plaster their bats on their shoulders and hope for ball four. Chapman made 13 starts and 25 relief appearances at AAA Louisville last year, punching out 11.6 per nine while walking nearly five, and then averaged nearly 100 MPH with his fastball out of the Reds pen while throwing the fastest recorded pitch in MLB history.

The 23-year-old lefty won’t figure into the back-of-the-rotation conversation without a change of heart by management, but he’s plenty capable of pushing incumbent closer Francisco Cordero aside. Cordero’s K rate has fallen four years running, a period during which his xFIP has climbed from 2.82 to 4.53.

Mike Leake

Oliver: 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.08 ERA
PECOTA: 5.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.81 ERA
ZiPS: 5.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.34 ERA

The eighth overall pick in the ’09 draft out of Arizona state, Leaked leaped right to the majors and proved to be a quality, if not terribly exciting, starting option. Throwing everything but a Ephus — two-seamers, sliders, curves, cutters, changeups — Leake had 5.92 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, a 50.2% ground ball rate and a 4.31 xFIP. His rookie season did end on a dour note, as he was placed on the DL in late August with shoulder fatigue. Leake didn’t throw another pitch after that, as Cincinnati played it safe and shut him down for the rest of the year.

Leake currently appears to be the sixth man for the Reds, behind Bailey and Wood, and GM Walt Jocketty said in February that Leake could end up in the bullpen rather than going to the minors to keep stretched out if he loses out on a rotation spot. Of course, no team’s one-through-five ends up staying perfectly healthy and productive — Leake is one sore elbow or shoulder away from regular rotation turns. He’s not going to miss many bats, but Leake’s ground ball tendencies aid him in a park where warning track flys often turn into round-trippers.

Sam LeCure

Oliver: 6.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.12 ERA
PECOTA: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.86 ERA
ZiPS: 6.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.00 ERA

LeCure, a 26-year-old with a four-pitch mix (high-80s fastball, upper-70s slider, low-70s curve, and a low-80s change), faces the longest odds of any pitcher listed here. In 48 MLB innings pitched last year, divided between starting and relief, LeCure had 6.94 K/9, 4.69 BB/9 and a 4.86 xFIP. The former Longhorn has sharper control of his limited stuff than that sample suggests, but his career minor league walk rate of three per nine is more decent than Maddux-esque.

LeCure did generate more grounders last season (54% at AAA, 45.6% with the Reds). Considering that Great American Ballpark increases home run production by 20 percent for left-handed hitters and 33 percent for righties, he’ll need to retain those gains to be much more than replacement-level flotsam.

Matt Maloney

Oliver: 6.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.43 ERA
PECOTA: 6.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.26 ERA
ZiPS: 6.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 ERA

As a lefty who relies on pinpoint control to compensate for a fastball that needs a strong backwind to reach the upper-80s on the gun, Maloney’s game is the antithesis of Chapman’s pure power. That said, the former Phillies prospect has 7.9 K/9, 2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9 in well over 400 innings at the Triple-A level. Maloney has performed adequately in 61.1 MLB innings divided between starting and relief over the past two years, with about six whiffs per nine innings, 1.9 BB/9 and a 4.70 xFIP. On a lot of teams, he’d have a good shot at pulling down a rotation spot. In Cincy, however, he’s a long shot looking to secure a bullpen spot for Opening Day.

All three projection systems have Maloney coughing up ample home runs, and dingers may well be a problem for the fly ball-centric 27-year-old. According to First Inning, Maloney’s ground ball rates have ranged from 40 to 45% at AAA, and he has induced grounders about 35% of the time in the big leagues. Maloney needs his exquisite control to limit multi-run long-ball damage.

Travis Wood

Oliver: 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.87 ERA
PECOTA: 6.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.06 ERA
ZiPS: 7.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.64 ERA

A lithe left-hander who originally got scouts all hot under the polo shirt collar as high schooler throwing 95 MPH, Wood no longer touches that velocity but nonetheless looks like a good fantasy option poised to win the fifth starter’s gig. After posting rates of 8.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 3.23 FIP in an even 100 AAA frames, Wood got the major league call in July. While he averaged about 90 MPH with his gas, Wood’s cutter, change and curve enticed batters to expand their zones — his 32.8 outside swing percentage was well above the 29.3% MLB average. In 102.2 innings with the Reds, Wood struck out 7.54 hitters per nine innings and walked just 2.28 per nine on his way to a 3.51 ERA.

I said that Wood is a good fantasy option, but whether he’s a good value is another question. Wood’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (30.5 GB% in the majors), and his home run per fly ball rate (6.3%) figures to rise. So will his BABIP (.259 last year), though perhaps less than most given those aforementioned flyballing ways (fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders). If you draft Wood expecting an ERA somewhere in the neighborhood of four, you won’t be disappointed. Get caught up in his near no-no and mid-threes ERA, and you might end up pulling the trigger while better options are still on the board.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Phil Hughes – After starting the season 10-1, Hughes is just 3-3 in his last seven starts with a 5.58 ERA. He has been hurt with the long ball recently, and has allowed 9 HR in 40.1 IP. But the HR problem is almost exclusively at home. Of the 16 HR he has allowed this season, 15 of them have occurred in Yankee Stadium. Hughes has two road starts this week, including one against the Royals. His road ERA this year is 2.61 so make sure he remains active even despite his recent struggles.

Mike Leake – In his first 11 starts, Leake was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. In his last nine starts, he is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA. Over his last 53 IP, Leake has allowed 10 HR and 19 BB, compared to 28 Ks. In his first 73 IP, he surrendered just 4 HR. Nine of his 14 HR allowed have come at Great American Ball Park and Leake has two home starts this week. Slide Leake to the bench if at all possible.

Vin Mazzaro – In seven of his last eight games, Mazaro has hurled a Quality Start. He has a 4-2 record with a 3.10 ERA in that span. Most of that good pitching has come against sub-.500 teams but Mazzaro does get a game against the Mariners this week. Activate him this week, look for a good first start and then root for the Mr. Hyde half of Scott Baker to show up in Mazzaro’s second outing.

Vicente Padilla – Since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, Padilla is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA. In 60 IP he has 13 BB and 52 Ks. Yet he is owned in only 62 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is starting in just 38 percent. It’s a tough week for Padilla, with two East Coast road starts. His road splits are not pretty, but the majority of that damage came the first two games of the season, when he gave up 11 ER in 8.2 IP. Since he faces Kyle Kendrick and Mike Minor this week, the matchups are not awful so pick him up from the waiver wire and make him active.

Mike Pelfrey – In the beginning of the season, Pelfrey was riding high as the addition of a splitter helped him get off to a fast start, where he was 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a save in his first five outings. But since then he is 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA, or pretty much the same guy who went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 2009. In his last seven games, Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. He has 16 BB and 14 Ks in 30 IP in that span. This is an easy bench. And even if you think he is bound for regression – he does have a .468 BABIP in his last seven games – there are rumors that the Mets might skip one of his starts.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Price, Lester, E. Santana, J. Garcia, Dempster, Matsuzaka, Romero, Bumgarner, Baker, A. Sanchez, Jackson, Strasburg, Kennedy, F. Garcia, Zambrano, LeBlanc, Masterson, Matusz, Kendrick, Enright, Fister, Norris, Narveson, Galarraga, Parra, Arrieta, Moseley, Karstens, Davies, O’Sullivan.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to start. W, 3.29 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2 starts)
Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.53 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.184 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 6.10 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.839 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to sit. 3.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Silva – Advised to sit. W, 5.06 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.688 WHIP (2)

With the MLB amateur draft set to kick off its three-day celebration on June 7, I though it would be a fun time to take a look back at some interesting names to remember from the ’09 draft.

Kyle Heckathorn | RHP | Milwaukee: The knock on Heckathorn coming out of college was that he had never dominated despite very good stuff. That has changed in pro ball. The right-hander has a power-pitcher’s frame at 6’6” and 225 lbs. He has a fastball that can reach the mid-90s, as well as a slider that can be plus at times, and a good change-up. He also has pretty good control for a power pitcher and gets a good number of ground balls. In college, he wasn’t very good at pitch selection but he’s been helped by working with pro catchers and coaches, who have really sharpened his understanding of his craft. One caution, though: He is succeeding in low-A ball, so it will be nice to see him at higher levels, perhaps later this year.

Ryan Wheeler | 1B | Arizona: How is this for debut numbers from 2009: .361/.462/.540 in 263 at-bats. Sure, Wheeler was an advanced college hitter beating up on younger pitchers, but he’s at it again in 2010… this time in high-A ball. The left-handed hitter is batting .310/.364/.434 in 226 at-bats in the powerful California League. Wheeler isn’t showing a ton of over-the-fence power right now, but he has good raw pop and he has 17 doubles on the year. A report by Baseball America likened his potential to that of the Reds’ Joey Votto.

Brad Boxberger | RHP | Cincinnati: I’m fairly certain you’re familiar with the Reds’ first draft pick from 2009… a guy by the name of Mike Leake? Well, Boxberger didn’t zoom right from college to the Majors, but he is already is double-A and is one of the fastest-moving draftees not named after a bodily function. The right-hander has given up 47 hits and just 17 walks in 49.1 innings of work. He’s also recorded 57 strikeouts and has a solid ground-ball rate, which has helped him give up just two homers this season. He has a little bit of work to do to improve against left-handed hitters but an improved curveball could give Boxberger the edge that he needs. He repertoire also features a low-90s fastball, plus slider, and a change-up.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Eight.

Scott Baker – Despite recently touting Baker as an acquisition target, I think he is someone to keep on the bench this week if at all possible. Baker’s struggles are partly due to a high BABIP and this week he faces the Yankees and the Rangers, two of the three best average-hitting teams in the league. I expect regression to take place eventually, just not this week.

Clay Buchholz – He has won four of his past five decisions. Buchholz is outpitching his peripherals, mainly due to a 4.5 HR/FB rate. He squares off this week against the Rays and the Royals, two teams that are below average in the AL in HR. So, ride the hot hand in Buchholz and make sure he is active this week.

Aaron Harang – After getting off to an 0-3 start with an 8.31 ERA, Harang has pitched much better in his past five games. In that time span he has 5 BB and 30 Ks in 30.2 IP. But his ERA is 4.40, due to 4 HR and a .311 average-against. This week Harang faces the Pirates and Astros, who are the bottom two teams in both AVG and HR. Look for Harang to put up Quality Starts and make sure he is in your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Dave Cameron called him the luckiest man alive earlier this week but the clock is ready to strike midnight for Hernandez. He allowed 11 hits and 8 line drives in his past 12.1 IP, compared to 20 H and 12 LD in his previous 27.1 IP. While he faces two teams that will not be confused for offensive powerhouses in San Francisco and San Diego, Hernandez has to make both of them on the road. We all know the crash is coming and I say it happens this week. Sell him if you can, bench him if you cannot.

Mike Leake – Like Harang, Leake gets home starts against PIT and HOU this week. He has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gotten his BB trouble from earlier in the season under control. After allowing 12 BB in his first 13.2 IP, Leake has given up just 9 BB in his last 39 IP. He has outpitched his peripherals this year, but if Leake can keep the ball in the park, he has a good shot to keep his QS streak intact.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Eight are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lester, Danks, Peavy, Shields, Burnett, J. Garcia, Braden, I. Kennedy, Wolf, Davis, Garland, Saunders, A. Sanchez, Chacin, Cecil, Moyer, Gorzelanny, Masterson, Guthrie, Maholm, Meche, Wellemeyer, Paulino, Kawakami, Ortiz, Burress, Dickey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Six pitchers and how they fared.

Cook – Advised to sit. 3 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.667 WHIP (1 start)
LeBlanc – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 2.31 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2)
Maine – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 2.091 WHIP (2)
Olsen – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Westbrook – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.20 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.133 WHIP (2)

Mike Leake went from Arizona State to the Arizona Fall League to Goodyear, Arizona to Cincinnati in the blink of an eye. The Reds selected the 6-1, 190 pound right-hander with the eighth pick in the 2009 draft, and after impressive fall league and spring training performances, Leake cracked the major league rotation to open 2010.

Leading up to the draft, Baseball America said the following about Leake:

What he lacks in pure physicality, he makes up for in athleticism and results. Leake pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits 88-92 mph. He can dial it up to 94, but prefers to work at lower speeds to get more movement. Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, he gets a lot of armside run and sink on his fastball that results in a lot of groundballs. He also throws a changeup, slider and cutter that grade out as above-average offerings.

In five starts so far, Leake has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9, with a strong 54.5 percent ground ball rate. His ERA (2.94) outpaces his expected FIP (4.37), as Leake has benefitted from a low .263 batting average on balls in play, a 6.9 home run per fly ball rate (the big league average is around 10-12 percent) and a 77.7 percent strand rate that’s probably going to come down some. That’s not to take a negative outlook on his start: for a guy with very limited professional experience to reach the majors and perform at a league-average clip from the get-go is quite impressive.

Leake has placed 48.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (right at the MLB average), while getting a first pitch strike 58.9 percent (57.7% MLB average). After issuing 12 free passes against the Cubs and Pirates, Leake has shown much better control over his last three starts. Hitters are making contact 82.8 percent of the time (80.7% MLB average), and tallying swinging strikes 6.4 percent (8.3% MLB average).

That BA scouting report noted Leake’s laundry list of pitches, and the Sun Devils star hasn’t been bashful about mixing all of them into his game plan. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, Leake is showcasing an 88-89 MPH sinker, an 80-81 MPH slider, an 83 MPH changeup, a 77 MPH curveball, an 89 MPH cutter and an 88-89 MPH four-seam fastball (it could probably be lumped in with the sinker, but the pitch has slightly less tailing action in on righty batters). Here are the strike and whiff percentages for the pitches so far, compared to the major league average:

Leake’s sinker is getting strikes, if few whiffs. His slider and changeup have been excellent, getting batters to swing and miss at rates well above the major league average. Those hitters are having a hard time laying off the slider and change: they have swung at the slider 54.1 percent (47.7% MLB average) and the changeup 60 percent (48.1% MLB average). The less-utilized curve and cutter aren’t hitting the mark or fooling opponents.

Overall, Leake’s beginning in the majors has to be considered a success. He’s throwing strikes after a bumpy beginning and getting plenty of grounders. The 22 year-old hasn’t missed a lot of bats, and he might not be a huge strikeout pitcher in the long run. But with an expansive repertoire, average K rates, good control and a tendency to keep the ball down, Leake could become a poor man’s Tim Hudson.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Burke Badenhop, Florida Marlins (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Part of the haul received from the Tigers in the Miguel Cabrera trade, Badenhop had a surprisingly effective rookie season in 2009, with both his FIP and xFIP below his 3.75 ERA. Additionally, Badenhop posted a 7.13 K/9 along with a 2.09 GB/FB ratio in 72 IP for the Marlins. In five games so far this year for Florida, Badenhop is bettering all of those marks. He has allowed just 1 ER in 9.2 IP, has 8 SO and a 2.17 GB/FB ratio. He is a late-inning reliever for the Marlins and has already picked up a save this season. Bladenhop should be next in line for Saves should anything happen with Leo Nunez and has the makings of a valuable setup man for owners who like to stock up on non-closers.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (owned in 8% of Yahoo! leagues)

The eighth player selected in the 2009 Draft, Leake advanced to the majors without pitching a single game in the minors. He did pitch in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.37 ERA with 15 Ks, 3 BB and 20 hits allowed in 20 IP. So far in the majors, Leake has pitched Quality Starts in both of his outings and has an impressive 2.63 ERA. Walks have been a problem (12 in 13.2 IP), but that is not his M.O. In his junior year at Arizona State, Leake issued just 24 BB in 142 IP. Both his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than his ERA, as Leake has a low BABIP (.265), a high strand rate (82.6%) and has yet to allow a HR. But he has a spot in the rotation and has room to improve with his walk rate. Leake is not overpowering, so do not expect much help in Ks. But he should be able to take the ball every five days and give his team a chance to win. Leake is a mid-rotation (#3/4) starter available on the waiver wire and should be added in most leagues.

Jim Thome, Minnesota Twins (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

The past two years Thome has been a low AVG slugger and things are shaping up the same way in 2010. He sports a .318 ISO, which speaks as much about his SLG (.545) as it does his AVG (.227). Currently, Thome is in a platoon situation, having just 2 PA versus LHP. That is a situation likely to continue the rest of the season, but one not necessarily much of a handicap for a player who will turn 40 later this year. RoS ZiPS projects him to hit 18 more HR this season, a total not many people on the waiver wire can match.

(I couldn’t help myself.)

It seems that Mike Leake has taken the Reds’ fifth starter job, making him the first player to skip the minors since Xavier Nady in 2000 and the first pitcher since Darren Dreifort in 1994. (Shame on him for outpacing our crack staff here at FanGraphs, but his player page will be up as soon as he plays a game.) Prospect Maven Marc Hulet will be giving us a detailed scouting report on Leake shortly, so I will focus here on finding a good comp for Leake. That might help us appraise his chances for success in the coming year.

Darren Dreifort doesn’t really make a for a good comp because he had what was considered at the time to be plus-plus tools or stuff, and he also came up as a reliever. Nady’s obviously not a good comp, though with Leake taking the ball for Dusty Baker, he may have as many TJ surgeries in his future as the Cubbies’ outfielder (zing!). Yes he pitches with a different hand, but could Jim Abbott provide us the best comp for Leake?

Abbott was also a first round draft pick that skipped the minor leagues. Just as there’s some skepticism about Leake’s eventual upside, there were rumblings around baseball that the Angels decision to bring Abbott up so quickly was about ticket sales and publicity. Leake is considered a good athlete for his position but his tools are doubted. Abbott was a little taller than Leake (6’3″ to Leake’s 6’0″), but they seem to be of similar build, clocking in around 200-210 pounds each. Mariano Rivera once talked of Abbott hitting home runs in batting practice, and he tripled in a spring training game once, so Abbott was an athletic guy too.

Abbot’s bread and butter was a fastball-curveball combination and eventually succeeded for a while because of slightly above-average control. Leake’s best two pitches are a fastball and a curveball and has above-average command of those two pitches. If only they pitched with the same hand, they’d seem to make a solid comparison.

In some ways, the Abbott comp could be seen as a compliment. After all, Abbott is one of only fourteen left-handers to have more than 12 wins at the age of 21 in the last 80 years. But of course, that’s a terrible stat to use to measure a pitcher, and it’s the other statistics that we are more interested in. Abbott did win those 12 games with a below-average ERA (97 ERA+ in 1989), and aside from the inspirational aspect, his career was not particularly long or distinguished. Given the possibility of an above-average lineup behind him, Leake could win some games in 2010. But those picking him should probably not hope for much more from the Reds’ starter than Abbott gave the Angels in his debut season. Abbott had a 3.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 5.71 K/9 that year.