Archive for Matt Wieters

To answer the headline’s question, a Wieters is numerus ûnus catcherus prospectus… or in a language that is understandable by the rest of humankind: the number one catching prospect (if not the No. 1 prospect generally speaking) in all of Major League Baseball.

In case you haven’t heard, the Baltimore Orioles organization has promoted catcher Matt Wieters to the Majors and he is expected to make his long-awaited Major League debut tonight against the Detroit Tigers. The switch-hitting catcher’s promotion has been the most anticipated call-up of the season (with apologies to David Price, who actually debuted last year).

Selected fifth overall in the 2007 amateur draft out of Georgia Tech University, the talented backstop was in the mix to go No. 1 overall (Price was nabbed there by Tampa Bay instead) but his price tag and advisor (Mr. Scott Boras, come on down…) scared away the first four clubs in the draft. Probably no other club (and fan base) is more upset over the decision to pass on The Wieters than the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, which chose fourth and took college left-handed reliever Daniel Moskos out of Clemson University.

The Pirates converted Moskos into a starting pitcher, watched him post a 5.95 ERA and then threatened to send him back to the ‘pen. In 2009, as Wieters prepares to don his catching gear for his MLB debut, Moskos is struggling in double-A with a 4.53 ERA in nine games. He’s allowed 51 hits in 45.2 innings of work and he’s struck out just 17 batters… which is a dismally-bad 3.35 K/9. There had best be a blackout in the Pittsburgh area tonight for the Orioles’ broadcast on MLB.com. It could get ugly… and very, very depressing.

Anyway, back to happier thoughts. For Orioles fans, Wieters represents another cog in what should be a very good Orioles team over the next decade. Along with the new catcher, the club also has some impressive outfielders including Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold (and some guy named Felix Pie, if he ever realizes his potential). Second baseman Brian Roberts is a great veteran leader, and he’s still only 31 years old.

Within the next year, the club’s brutal pitching staff should receive help from a trio of talented starters: RHP Chris Tillman, LHP Brian Matusz, and RHP Jake Arrieta. RHP David Hernandez just had his solid MLB debut last night, and appears to have the potential to be a good No. 4 starter. And RHP Brandon Erbe should not be forgotten about, either.

Much like Wieters, don’t expect miracles with the club overnight. He is not going to instantly transform the club into a winner – and he’s probably not going to pull an Albert Pujols and become the best hitter in baseball within the first week of his career. Wieters, though, does have an outside shot at winning the American League Rookie of the Year award, if he can put up half decent numbers. The current race leader is probably Detroit’s Rick Porcello (whom, sadly, Wieters will miss facing in his debut series). Beyond that, there is not much to get excited about this year in terms of rookie performances (so far).

Speaking of rookies, Wieters (who turned 23 last week) should have better long-term potential then, say, last year’s National League Rookie of the Year (and catcher) Geovany Soto of the Chicago Cubs, who’s looked brutal this season (and pretty much every other year of the 26-year-old’s nine-year career, save for 2007 and 2008). Seriously, what’s up with Soto?

Wieters’ numbers have been down at triple-A in 2009, in part due to a slow start (.260 in April) and in part due to a minor injury that kept him out of the lineup for a few games. Overall, though, his numbers on the year are still solid at .305/.387/.504 in 39 games, which gives you a pretty good idea of just how awesome people expect him to be… because those numbers would be a pretty nice triple-slash line for a lot of people during their career year.

The best part about Wieters is, while he has the best offensive potential for any catcher this side of Mike Piazza, he’s not all offense. The Orioles prospect is also a very good (definitely not just average) defensive catcher. He threw out about 40 percent of base stealers last year, calls a great game and receives the ball very well.

The hype on Wieters is justified. Let’s enjoy the show.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a special talent, so it’s not really fair to compare other players to him. With that said, though, the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year’s performance last season has left a lasting impression that no rookie has been able to come close to in 2009. One-third of the way through the 2009 season, there are no clear-cut favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in either the American League or the National League.

In fact, two of the early favorites for the award, both outfielders, have already been demoted to the minors in Toronto’s Travis Snider, and Florida’s Cameron Maybin. The pre-season AL favorites, LHP David Price (Tampa Bay) and C Matt Wieters (Baltimore), have not been recalled from the minors yet. Time will be running out soon for those two players, as it gets harder and harder to justify giving the award to someone if they only play a partial season in the Majors.

The Favorite(s): Elvis Andrus has been one of the key reasons for the Rangers’ first-place play so far this season. The 20-year-old shortstop has displayed solid defense while also contributing a respectable offensive line of .270/.311/.417 in 35 games. If he showed a willingness to walk a little more and use his speed on the bases, Andrus could run away with the award. Japanese import Koji Uehara has been the Orioles’ best starter so far in 2009. He’s given up a few too many hits, but the right-hander has walked just nine batters in 47.2 innings of work. Uehara is already 34 years of age, though, so there likely isn’t any upside here. Another right-handed rookie in the American League has a ton of upside. Detroit’s Rick Porcello is just 20 years of age and he is one of the rare rookies this season that has shown vast improvements as the year progresses. His strikeout rate is still a little troubling at just 5.67 K/9 but he’s struck out five batters in each of his last two starts (10 Ks in 11 IP). Porcello is also inducing a ton of ground-ball outs.

The New Contestants: Baltimore recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold to the Majors after he hit .394/.485/.743 in 31 games. He’s had at least one hit in six of his seven MLB games so far, and he has two multiple-hit contests. Cleveland outfielder Matt LaPorta has a slightly higher ceiling than Reimold, but he’s had a slower start to his MLB career. Through 11 games, he’s hitting just .206 with one home run. Left-handed pitcher Derek Holland has been pitching well in the Rangers’ bullpen, which has earned him his first first MLB start this weekend. He has a 4.85 ERA in seven appearances, but five of the seven earned runs he’s allowed came in one outing.

The Long-Shot: Matt Palmer, a 30-year-old rookie, will not wow you with his stuff. The right-hander works in the high 80s with his fastball and relies on pitching to contact with a cutter. He has, though, allowed just 23 hits in 31.2 innings of work and he’s recorded wins in each of his five starts. Not bad for a minor league free agent pick-up out of the Giants organization.

The Favorite(s): St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is currently the NL RoY favorite almost by default, as no other player has stepped up in pursuit of the award. Rasmus is playing good defense and showing some power (.155 ISO), but he’s hitting just .250 with a .328 on-base percentage. The left-handed hitter is batting just .129 versus southpaws.

The New Contestants: Arizona recently promoted outfielder Gerardo Parra from double-A, where he was hitting very well (.361 avg, more BBs than Ks). He’s now hitting .333 with two homers in seven big-league games. Second baseman Chris Coghlan has been playing all over the field for Florida and has seen a fair bit of time in the outfield now that Maybin has been demoted. He’s likely the second baseman of the future, though, when Dan Uggla gets too expensive. Infielder Adam Rosales is another player who can play all over the field. He was promoted to fill-in at third base after incumbent Edwin Encarnacion went down with an injury in Cincinnati. Rosales was hitting .421 in 17 triple-A games, but he’s down to .240 in 20 MLB contests.

The Long-Shot: A 14th-round selection from the 1999 draft, Bobby Scales spent 10 seasons in the minors, mostly with San Diego. A career line of .285/.375/.432 was not enough to get him a chance in the Majors, in part due to poor defense as he played both the infield (mostly second) and the outfield. Scales spent parts of seven seasons in triple-A. He is a long shot for the NL RoY award because his playing time will be limited in Chicago.

Baltimore’s Matt Wieters, 23, is the best backstop prospect in all of professional baseball. He hit more than .350 last year with 27 home runs, 91 RBI and 82 walks, while splitting time between high-A and double-A.

But Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia was pretty good too. Playing at the same levels in 2008, the 23-year-old catcher hit .298 with 27 home runs and 105 RBI. His downfall, though, was his walk rate, which saw him take a free pass only 18 times in 510 at-bats.

Both catchers began 2009 in triple-A and both players had slow starts to the season, although Wieters was also hampered by a minor injury. Arencibia’s struggles may have been related to his approach at the plate and the better (smarter?) pitching he’s now facing. If you know a guy is going to swing at everything and won’t take a walk, why give him something to hit?

In 133 at-bats this season, Arencibia is hitting .314 when he’s ahead in the count. When he’s behind, though, he has a .179 average with zero walks. In April, Toronto’s top hitting prospect (now that Travis Snider is in Toronto) batted .224/.257/.358 with no home runs and no walks in 67 at-bats.

Fast-forward to May 19, though, and Arencibia is hitting .288/.356/.697 for the month (66 at-bats). Overall, his numbers have improved to a respectable .256/.308/.526 in 133 at-bats. He’s also slammed seven home runs this month. In his last 10 games, Arencibia is hitting .385 and has five of those home runs in just 39 at-bats.

Can we see any reasons why the numbers have improved? Well, it could be the warmer weather (although the club plays its home games in Las Vegas). It could be that his luck is improving and the BABIP (.257) is starting to creep up to where it should be. But it could also be the seven walks that the catcher has taken in May (16 games). The walks don’t directly equal success, obviously. But it means Arencibia is being more patient, seeing more pitches – and quite possibly hitting better pitches.

Only 16 picks separated Wieters, a Georgia Tech graduate, and Arencibia, from the University of Tennessee, in the first round of the 2007 draft. Wieters, selected fifth overall, will no doubt reach the Majors first – but Arencibia should not be far behind, especially if he continues to show a willingness to be more patience and selective at the plate.

Every Thursday throughout the regular season, we’re going to take a look at the some of the players in the minor leagues who are on the cusp of helping out Major League Baseball teams (and by association – Fantasy Baseball managers) in 2009. This week it is the all-hitter edition.

Matt LaPorta: We wrote about LaPorta last week, but the big man keeps knockin’ on the door to the big leagues. He’s at .368/.436/.706 in 68 at-bats for Triple-A and has hit .405 in his last 10 games. In a positive sign for a slugger, LaPorta’s strikeout rate is on the decline for the third straight season, despite facing better competition. Both Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner have been hitting well, which has helped keep LaPorta in the minors, but the latter player just hit the disabled list. Keep your eyes on the transaction wire.

Matt Wieters: The top hitting prospect in the minors missed a handful of Triple-A games after suffering a minor injury on April 17. He’s back now, but he’s hitting just .238 (5-for-21) since his return. On the season, the catcher has a triple-slash line of .267/.382/.378 in 45 at-bats. With Baltimore’s No. 1 catcher, veteran Gregg Zaun, hitting .111/.238/.185 in 54 at-bats, there isn’t much between Wieters and the beginning of his MLB career.

Adrian Cardenas: Oakland needs some serious offensive help, or the club is going to fade off into the AL West sunset. The team is last in the American League in batting average (.233), runs scored (75), doubles (24) and home runs (with a paltry eight, or one less than MLB leader Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres). Offensively, Cardenas would be a step up at second base, third base, or shortstop, where the trio of Mark Ellis, Eric Chavez and Orlando Cabrera have combined for a .201 average and zero homers. Cardenas, 21, is currently hitting .355/.410/.579 with 14 extra base hits, as well as a healthy dose of walks.

Wilkin Ramirez: Ramirez, 23, could offer Detroit an offensive boost, but where should the club play him? The outfield is full right now – although everyone but Josh Anderson is scuffling. Carlos Guillen is clogging up the designated hitter’s spot, but he too is struggling. As a result, Ramirez will have to bide his time in Triple-A and wait for an injury. The converted third baseman is currently hitting .313/.371/.438 with just one homer and six stolen bases. He missed the 20-20 club by one home runs in Double-A last season, and also hit more than .300.

Bryan Petersen: If the Florida Marlins organization decides center-fielder Cameron Maybin needs a little more seasoning in the minors (.190 avg, 38.1 K%), it might look like the club would have to rely on the likes of Brett Carroll, Jai Miller, or Alejandro De Aza. But take a look down into Double-A where a young prospect by the name of Bryan Petersen is currently playing. He’s more of a corner outfielder, but he has the speed to play center – at least in the short term. Things really started to click for Petersen, 23, in the second half of last season and that success has carried over into the 2009 season. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .288/.355/.424 with five stolen bases in 66 at-bats. The biggest negatives in his game right now are the strikeouts (22.7 K%) and the average against southpaws (.188). Petersen, though, has 20-20 potential.

Josh Whitesell: Poor Mr. Whitesell. He just cannot catch a break. The left-handed first baseman just turned 27 and he has a total of seven big league at-bats. Whitesell hit .328/.425/.568 in Triple-A last year and is tearing the cover off the ball again at the same level in ’09 with a line of .364/.475/.545 in 66 at-bats. He hits for average, power, drives in runs and walks more than his fair share. What does a guy have to do to get a break? Ah, but the D-backs have 36-year-old Tony Clark filling the pinch hitter/back-up first baseman role. After hitting .206/.338/.333 for Arizona last year, Clark is now following up that very successful campaign with a line of .160/.250/.400 and 13 strikeouts in 25 at-bats.

Matt Wieters had quite the start to his professional career.

The 5th overall pick of the 2007 draft began the season at high-A ball, where he destroyed poor souls on the mound to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 69 games. He also walked nearly as many times (44) as he struck out (47).

Wieters then took his one-man show to double-A, where the demolition continued. Wieters actually hit better with Bowie, smacking opposing pitchers around at a .365/.460/.625 clip, and blasting 12 homers in 61 games. He continued his impressive plate discipline as well, actually managing more walks (38) than strikeouts (29).

Wieters’s season is eerily reminiscent of another young catching prodigy: Joe Mauer, in 2003. That year, Mauer began the season at high-A ball, where he hit .335/.395/.412. Mauer too was promoted to double-A at mid-season, where he hit .341/.400/.453. Mauer also walked as often as he struck out, an impressive feat for any minor league hitter. The two biggest differences are the facts that Wieters was 22 years old this year, while Mauer was only 20 back in 2003; and that Wieters displayed more power this year than Mauer did in 03.

Fantasy players know what happened with Mauer: he developed into a consistent threat to win a batting title – although his power remains questionable to this day. However, Mauer is a solid comparison for what to expect from Wieters. Wieters began his professional career at a later age than Mauer, but also put up even more impressive numbers than Mauer did. So far, Wieters appears to be Joe Mauer with power.

The question is: how much power? Expect Wieters to hit for a solid average right away, as he not only posted very high averages in the minors this year, but he also showed extremely impressive plate discipline and the ability to put the ball in play. However, I wouldn’t expect Wieters’s power to translate entirely to the majors in 2009. Although he did hit 27 homers (in only 130 games) this year, he hit the ball on the ground a little too often: only 35% of his balls in play were fly balls.

Wieters is still a candidate to hit 10-15 homers and perhaps even approach a .300 batting average (although .280 or so is more likely), making him a fine catcher in 2009. His long-term potential is immense, and he’s tremendously valuable in keeper leagues. He will likely get the call to the majors relatively early in the season (perhaps as soon as April), and he should make an impact from day one. While he’s a good bet to have more power than Joe Mauer, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit 20-25 homers in his first season.