Archive for Matt Wieters

Negotiating trades in fantasy baseball can always be tough in competitive leagues.  Everyone is trying to gain the upper hand and each time you ask for that better starting pitcher or that more powerful outfielder, you end up taking some kind of grief for over-valuing your own players.  So why not try and get that extra boost in numbers from a low-profile spot like behind the plate?  Negotiate a deal and then try to throw in your over-performing catcher for their under-performing one who you think has the potential to improve.  You just might be able to squeeze some more out from their end.  Looking at early season BABIP and xBABIP, here’s a look at some “throw-ins” you just might want to try out… Read the rest of this entry »

It’s backstop day at the RG, as we debuted our rankings and then profiled the top five targets and some deep sleepers. Now it’s time to look at the middle of the rankings, identify some guys that are falling in this year’s drafts, and decide if they merit more love.

Matt Wieters
Once projected to be a superstar in his rookie season, the shine has seemingly come off of Wieters, and he’s all the way down to near-double digits in our rankings. Here’s a thing I discovered while researching this piece about Carlos Santana, however: it does seem that catchers take a little longer to develop their offense. Whether it’s because they focus on defense and game calling first, or because they are one of the worst offensive positions overall, it takes a few years. Switch-hitting catchers from Victor Martinez to Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada all took until 25 or later to bust out. Wieters is 24 and that, as well as his minor league record, is probably the best statistic in his favor. With incremental improvements in his walk rate, strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and ISO, there are other statistics that back up the idea that perhaps Wieters shouldn’t be sliding this far. Consider taking him slightly ahead of his ADPs (130.04 at MDC, 111.2 at Yahoo) in order to snag his upside.

Jorge Posada
If age is the reason to be up-beat about Matt Wieters, then it’s the reason that Jorge Posada is falling in drafts and rankings this year. And of course we have to temper any expectations that we might have for him because of his age. The record for at-bats for a catcher over 39 is Carlton Fisk with 454 (second is Fisk at 452, third is Bob Boone at 405, and those are the only seasons over 400). Fisk is also the only person to ever hit more than double-digit home runs after 39, as he hit 23 at 39, 19 at 40, 13 at 41 and 18 at 42. So, if you’re taking Posada, you’re basically hoping he’ll be the best or second- best old catcher ever. Of course, that’s possible, because Posada’s 22 home runs in 2009 were the third-best number ever by a catcher over 37. He’s done it before. Oh, and he’s going to DH this year, which will have to be counted as a positive even if he hasn’t done so well in that role before. It should, at the very least, help him get more ABs.

Miguel Montero
Montero is young-ish (27), and once hit .294 with 16 home runs, and yet he’s falling in drafts this year (125.6 ADP in MDC, 158.2 in Yahoo). The ADPs might be reasonable, but is he worth picking after the tenth round is completed? Maybe (hah). A full, healthy season from Montero could produce a home run total in the mid-teens and a decent batting average for a catcher, judging from his career .267 number in the category. Can he stay healthy? He’s only officially hit the DL twice in his carer – for right knee surgery in 2010 (62 days missed) and for a fractured finger in 2008 (31 days missed) – and yet he’s averaged only 313 PAs since 2007. It looks like Montero is best drafted as part of a quantity, not quality approach late in your drafts. Pick him and Posada late in the game and you’ll probably have a decent catcher this year, one way or the other.

The 2011 baseball season is almost upon us, so we here at RotoGraphs put our collective heads together to come up with some aggregate positional rankings.  I’ll be taking the lead all year with the catchers, but as a group, here’s what we came up with for now:

Despite last year’s power decline, we know the potential is there so Mauer gets the nod for the top spot.  Welcome to the big time, Buster!

Happy to have any one of these guys on my roster.  Santana is on the rise, but this could be the last chance for Wieters in the fantasy trust department.

Stable group of guys who can just tow the line for your backstop position.  Martin could be a nice sleeper in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

No major investment needs to be made here.  Some will rise, some will fall.  Arencibia’s power potential puts him at the top of the sleeper list.

Maybe a pair of diamonds in the rough in Lucroy and Snyder, but I wouldn’t want to invest more than a buck on the rest of the lot.

You’ve got to be pretty desperate to be living with these guys on your roster.

We’ll all be chiming in throughout the week with more detailed thoughts on some of the backstops and the overall rankings will be updated on a monthly basis, so stay tuned for more!

Earlier in the week we showed that you can still get a comparative advantage over your fellow drafters by drafting an elite catcher that will rack up 10-12% more plate appearances than other catchers. But that’s only half the picture – what the catchers do with their plate appearances is the rest of the picture. If you can’t get too much of a comparative advantage in terms of the other statistics, the plate appearances won’t matter much.

In order to do that, we’ll take a look at some of the projections for catchers that should go early and catchers that go later. We’ll use draft picks from the Stupidly Early Mock Draft over at RotoHardball.com to approximate ADP (but there’s more help coming from RG when it comes to rankings and mocks, don’t worry).

First, let’s just take the Bill James projections for the top 12 catchers, grouped not in tiers, but just in groups of four. These jerry-rigged tiers will allow us to compare the top, middle, and bottom catchers without too much discussion about getting them into the correct tiers. A straight average of the groups should put this into focus.

2.10 Joe Mauer .338 BA, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI
4.1 Brian McCann .280 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI
4.2 Victor Martinez .298 BA, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI
4.3 Buster Posey .308 BA, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI

Top-“Tier” Average: .306 BA, 20 HR, 2 SB, 76 R, 88 RBI

7.5 Geovany Soto .276 BA, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI
7.8 Carlos Santana .280 BA, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI
9.4 Matt Wieters .288 BA, 16 HR, 0 SB, 55 R, 74 RBI
12.11 Mike Napoli .246 BA, 24 HR, 4 SB, 62 R, 66 RBI

Mid-“Tier” Average: .273 BA, 21 HR, 3 SB, 64 R, 76 RBI

14.6 Jorge Posada .260 BA, 16 HR, 2 SB, 49 R, 60 RBI
14.7 Miguel Montero .273 BA, 14 HR, 0 SB, 51 R, 58 RBI
15.9 Ryan Hanigan .281 BA, 5 HR, 0 SB, 39 R, 37 RBI
16.12 Kurt Suzuki .266 BA, 13 HR, 4 SB, 65 R, 73 RBI

Bottom-“Tier” Average: .270 BA, 12 HR, 1 SB, 51 R, 57 RBI

It looks like you get what you pay for, but the middle tier might get you the best value. The bottom tier looks pretty bad, but if you replace Hanigan with John Buck, whose projections are a little rosier (.248 BA, 17 HR, 0 SB, 47 R, 60 RBI), then your averages for the bottom tier look a little nicer – .262 BA, 15 HR, 53 R, 63 RBI.

While the top three in plate appearances will show a comparative advantage over the rest of the field, plate appearances can be hard to predict. Going by projected performance, it looks like the best plan may be to wait, but not wait too long.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at four catchers.

Matt Wieters
Wieters is one of the most common keepers that owners are on the fence about, and that’s no surprise. Unless you expected a catcher to have a .350+ BABIP for the rest of his career, his 2010 numbers aren’t that much of a shock. Wieters improved in a lot of categories (BB%, K%, SwStr%, Contact%), but saw a drop in his line drive rate forcing his BABIP to trend lower.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.345, 14 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’ll probably fall in drafts, so you’re better off waiting for him.

Geovany Soto
This one’s pretty simple, at least in my eyes. All of Soto’s problems stem from Sweet Lou and playing time, and he’s already gone. Plus, even with reduced PT, Soto was one of the best catchers this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.380, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep.

Ryan Doumit
A constant frustration thanks to his injury problems, Doumit may not be quite the same risk heading into next season. With the Pirates starting to give him time in the outfield, some of the injury worries should melt away. I wouldn’t expect much more than 450 plate appearances, but that’s a number you can live with.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 15 HR
Verdict: Cut. If you can, forget about his 2008 season as soon as possible.

Carlos Santana
Before the horrendous collision with Ryan Kalish, Santana was an automatic keeper going into 2011. He’s shown good power, fantastic patience, and a good stroke at the plate. Heck, he even stole a few bases. Knee injuries and catchers are scary stuff, so you need to be extra cautious with this one.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.400, 12 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as you don’t have to pay too high a price, he’s worth the risk.

Tyler Flowers
Once considered the White Sox obvious catcher of the future, his fate is not so clear now. Chicago will have a vacancy to fill, but will they hand it over to Flowers?
Crude 2011 Projection: .225/.300, 10 HR
Verdict: Cut. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for a high enough average to justify keeping him.

JP Arencibia
After his spectacular debut, JPA didn’t do much in the limited playing time the Blue Jays gave him. He can still mash, and it should be his job to lose coming into spring.
Crude 2011 Projection: .245/.295, 15 HR
Verdict: Keep. He has too much power to send him packing.

If you have a catcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

This edition of catcher notes focuses on three young backstops who could help your team now, and in the future.

Carlos Santana | Indians | 64% owned

Santana had huge expectations hoisted on his shoulders when he was called up, and he has exceeded them. Mark my words: Carlos Santana will be the best fantasy catcher for the rest of the year. Seriously, I’d be willing to put money (er, gummy bears) on it. Since he only owned in 64% of leagues, it’s worth your time to check the waiver wire and add him if he’s available.

Matt Wieters | Orioles | 66% owned

One of the most hyped catchers on draft day has been a major disappointment, but there is still hope. In the past 30 days, Wieters has hit .304 while driving in 11 runs. Keep in mind, during the past 30 days, Wieters has missed time due to injury and the All-Star break, so his sample size is small. Still, you can color me optimistic. He has a great offensive pedigree, and when he returns to the bigs when his DL stint is up at the end of the month, I expect great things. I’ve seen him dropped in some leagues (even a keeper league), so he could be a good buy-low guy if you are looking to build for the future.

Jonathan Lucroy | Brewers | 1% owned

The Brewers “catcher of the future,” Lucroy has hit well in his first big league season. Lucroy wasn’t supposed to see a lot of time in the majors this year, but Gregg Zaun’s injury opened up playing time for the youngster. Marc Hulet rated Lucroy as the Brewers 5th best prospect coming into the year, noting his offensive reputation. Lucroy is hitting .280/.316/.376 right now, so he isn’t a good value in OBP or OPS leagues, but could deserve a pickup in keeper and NL-only leagues. He won’t play every day, but he plays enough to justify a roster spot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

A sour season for Matt Wieters owners got even more frustrating on Friday, as the switch-hitting would-be savior was placed on the DL (retroactive to July 10th) with a strained right hamstring. Wieters has been battling the bad hammy since tripping while rounding second base during a July 9th game against the Texas Rangers.

The fifth overall pick in the ’07 draft laid waste to minor league pitching in 2008 (a combined .355/.454/.600 between High-A and Double-A) and 2009 (.305/.387/.504 in Triple-A) before the O’s called him up last May. Wieters turned in a very impressive rookie season — while not reaching the hyperbolic expectations set by some, he hit .288/.340/.412 with a .331 wOBA in 385 plate appearances. League-average offense from 23-year-old backstop in the AL East is nothing to scoff at.

Wieters was supposed to take several steps forward in 2010, with both ZiPS (.282/.346/.427, .342 wOBA) and CHONE (.289/.355/.460, .356 wOBA) predicting improvement at the plate. Instead, the former Georgia Tech star has stung those who used a prime draft pick on him — Wieters holds a sluggish .245/.315/.357 line in 298 PA, with a .298 wOBA.

While Baseball America lauded the 6-5, 230 pound Wieters’ 30-homer potential, that pop has not yet been on display in the majors. He had a .124 ISO last season, and that mark has fallen slightly in 2010, to .112. For comparison, ZiPS projected a .145 ISO and CHONE had a .171 ISO.

Part of the problem is an increase in ground balls hit. Wieters hit grounders 41.9% in 2009, and that ground ball rate has climbed to 46.4% this year. It also doesn’t help that the quality of pitches that he’s swinging at has declined. Here are Wieters’ swing rates on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (O-Swing) and within the zone (Z-Swing) in 2009 and 2010. I also included Wieters’ O-Swing and Z-Swing rates as a proportion of the MLB average:

Wieters is chasing a slightly higher percentage of pitches thrown off the plate (relative to the MLB average), but the big change is his swing rate on pitches over the plate. He’s taking more offerings thrown within the zone, which has contributed to his getting behind in the count more often. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage was 53 last season, but it has climbed to 60.7% in 2010 (58-59% MLB average). According to StatCorner, Wieters took a pitch for a strike 29.5% of the time in ’09. This year, he’s taking a pitch for a strike 33.8% (31% MLB average).

Our Pitch Type Run Values suggest that Wieters is struggling on a per-pitch basis against fastballs — his runs/100 value against the heat is -0.49 this season, compared to +0.71 in 2009. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Wieters swung at 45.8% of fastballs seen in ’09, and 41.3% in 2010. When Wieters got a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat in 2009, his strike percentage was 54.4. This season, he’s got a 62.2 strike% when a pitcher throws him a fastball to begin an AB. It seems as though he’s having a hard time distinguishing balls from strikes against the gas.

Despite his struggles, Wieters is still one of the most valuable properties in the game. ZiPS has a .274/.343/.407 rest-of-season projection for him, and CHONE predicts a .276/.341/.431 line. Even if the power doesn’t manifest when he returns, Wieters isn’t a sub-.250 hitter. His .317 expected BABIP is 26 points higher than his actual .291 BABIP.

I can’t stress this enough — please, please do not trade this guy for fifty cents on the dollar right now. That goes ten-fold for keeper leagues — you’ll be kicking yourself later if you let the aggravation caused by Wieters’ tepid 2010 overshadow his superb track record and prospect pedigree.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Zack Greinke – Last Player Picked has Greinke’s 2010 season valued at $0 so far this season, the same as Brandon League and Hisanori Takahashi. Clearly, that is not what owners expected when they spent a second or third-round pick on him. He is underperforming in every category, especially Wins, where he really has a chance to turn things around from here on out. Many fantasy owners abhor chasing Wins but with Greinke we have a player with a .200 winning percentage who has an outside shot to finish above .500 for the season. (R) ZiPS sees him going 8-6 and while that won’t get him to .500 it will make him a much more valuable pitcher going forward.

Pablo Sandoval – Coming into 2009, most fantasy owners thought Sandoval would hit for a good AVG but not give much in HR. Then he went out and put up a .330-25 season and expectations went through the roof for 2010. Sandoval has not met those expectations, instead putting up numbers more in line with preseason 2009 projections. Currently, Sandoval is struggling on the road, where he has a .261 BABIP and a .100 ISO. He is also scuffling versus LHP, with a .229 AVG. Last year Sandoval hit .379 versus southpaws. Sandoval is not going to revert to 2009 levels but there is room for growth in both power and especially AVG.

Matt Wieters – Subjectively, Wieters looks terrible at the plate. Objectively, Wieters has been similar to what he was in 2009 except for poor luck on BABIP. His ISO of .115 is right in line with the .124 he put up last year. His BB/K of 0.38 is similar to last year’s 0.33 and his HR/FB rate of 9.1 compares favorably to last season’s 8.4 percent. But last year Wieters had a .356 BABIP while this year it checks in 90 points lower. Any owner who has watched him play will be happy to trade him. Anyone who believes in regression could see him being a serviceable fantasy catcher the rest of the year.

SELL

Cole Hamels – One of the most common questions asked in these columns is “What could I get for Player X in trade?” That’s an impossible question to answer because there are so many variables involved, not the least of which is an individual owner’s trading skills. But since he was listed as a “buy” above, how about trading Hamels for Greinke? Here are the current numbers:

CH – 6 W, 3.75 ERA, 85 Ks, 1.31 WHIP — $3
ZG – 2 W, 3.94 ERA, 83 Ks, 1.20 WHIP — $0

And here are the (R) ZiPS projections:

CH – 7 W, 3.98 ERA, 109 Ks, 1.23 WHIP
ZG – 8 W, 3.41 ERA, 121 Ks, 1.18 WHIP

Kevin Kouzmanoff – After a slow start, Kouzmanoff has been raking in the month of June, with a .402 AVG, 5 HR and 13 RBIs, and a week still to go to pad the counting numbers. Kouzmanoff has a good chance to reach 20 HR but he has never been very good with his BABIP, which currently sits at .320 for the season. His current AVG seems inflated and this feels like the right time to execute a sell-high move.

Ty Wigginton – Perhaps a bit past the peak time to sell high, Wigginton still has good overall numbers. He has additional value due to his position eligibility. He has played over 20 games at both 1B and 2B, which combined with his eligibility at 3B from last season, makes him available to fill multiple holes for potential owners. While the forecast is not pessimistic for Wigginton going forward, owners have to be concerned about playing time. He is a butcher in the field and with the Orioles going nowhere, he could easily lose ABs down the stretch to younger players.

HUNCH

Alfredo Simon – Earlier in the year it looked like Simon was grabbing hold of the closer’s role. But an injury put everything in flux and the Orioles have David Hernandez and Mike Gonzalez as immediate and future competitors for the position. But I like Simon’s chances to nail down the role. (R) ZiPS really can’t be used as a comparison in this case, as it sees him making some starts the rest of the season. But Simon has 7 Saves currently and has a shot to finish the year with 20.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here. As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (.438 wOBA)
2. Victor Martinez, Boston (.375 wOBA)
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.359 wOBA)

It should come as no shock that the reigning American League MVP is the top target amongst catchers. Mauer’s value should be helped by a full season from Justin Morneau, as well as the additions of second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom will reduce the playing time for the offensive vacuum known as Nick Punto. A better-balanced lineup can only help Mauer’s RBI and run totals.

Martinez is a great player to have in your fantasy lineup because he is eligible at both catcher and first base, which gives you added flexibility. A full season in Boston (He was traded from Cleveland midway through 2009) should have a positive effect on his numbers – especially in terms of RBI opportunities, and he should see better pitches now that he has more protection in the lineup.

McCann got off to a slow start in ’09 and April was pretty much a write-off thanks to vision problems, which are no longer a concern. On the downside, the Braves lineup is not significantly better than it was in ’09 so he will have limited protection in the lineup if Chipper Jones and/or Troy Glaus start to show their age.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jorge Posada, New York AL (.378 wOBA)
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (.330 wOBA)
6. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.357 wOBA)
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles NL (.307 wOBA)
8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles AL (.362 wOBA)

Clearly, Posada had an outstanding year in ’09 but he appeared in just 111 games and the 38-year-old can’t swim in the fountain of youth forever (although New York should obviously try bottling whatever Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are drinking). On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wieters is just coming into his own. You even might be able to draft the catcher in a favorable spot if your fantasy baseball owners are still feeling let down by his ’09 season. Wieters had an encouraging debut for a 23-year-old catcher, but expectations were incredibly (and unfairly) high for him.

Montero seized the starting gig away from Chris Snyder in ’09 thanks to an injury but fantasy managers would probably feel a little bit better if Snyder was off-loaded to another club in spring training (after proving his health). Martin appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness a couple years ago, but his power has dried up. Still, there aren’t many backstops that can steal you 10-20 bases in a season and he’s reportedly bulked up a bit in an effort to hit more taters. Napoli would perhaps be more deserving of a higher ranking if A) Jeff Mathis projected to have fewer at-bats, or B) The club would give more at-bats to Napoli at DH. Unfortunately, the addition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui will eat up most of the DH opportunities.

The Leftovers:
9. Geovany Soto, Chicago NL (.310 wOBA)
10. Chris Iannetta, Colorado (.346 wOBA)
11. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (.321 wOBA)
12. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.308 wOBA)
13. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.337 wOBA)
14. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (.306 wOBA)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago AL (.326 wOBA)

Of the “leftovers,” the highest potentials come from Soto, Iannetta, and Doumit. Soto was not in great playing shape last season and he’s reportedly motivated to recapture his past Rookie of the Year glory. Iannetta has the offensive bonus of playing in Colorado, but the free agent signing of Miguel Olivo could mean fewer at-bats, unless the youngster breaks out in a big way. Doumit’s ’09 season was ruined by injuries and he appeared in 75 games. He has good power for a catcher but he’s also hurt by a below-average offense in Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The First Basemen

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.

Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.

The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.

The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.

Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?