Something strange is happening in Tampa Bay. Matt Joyce is hitting in the month of April. Using monthly splits for analysis is a fool’s play, but throughout his career, May has been Joyce’s month to shine. Apparently, someone removed the month of April from his 2014 calendar because Joyce is off to a terrific start this season.
Platooning a left-hander and a right-hander is a fairly common practice for major league teams, but utilizing platoon partners on your fantasy team isn’t the best way to take advantage of platoon splits. This may seem super obvious to you, but it’s better to use two lefties on separate teams who are used as platoon players as opposed to using two players who are platoon partners on the same team. In other words it’s better to go with Matt Joyce and Daniel Nava than it is to go with Nava and Jonny Gomes. Read the rest of this entry »
When making waiver wire moves at this point in the year, you like to have some sort of comforting reassurance that you know what you’re getting when you pick a guy up. With all the unproven commodities arriving in September, sifting through the names can be aggravating at times because you aren’t quite sure how they’ll perform or how much playing time they’ll even get. That’s why I like to stick with what I know and one of the things I know is that you’re simply not going to find that five-tool fantasy dreamboat that you and everyone else craves. Could you catch lightning in a bottle with a random pick-up? Sure. But your odds of that are probably as good as hitting a lotto jackpot and being able to move out of your mom’s basement and into a command center of your own. Most players that you find available right now have some sort of flaw but are more than capable of contributing in some fashion because they are seeing consistent playing time and have proven where they are most capable. Like these, for example… Read the rest of this entry »
As we continue our leisurely stroll through the depth charts, we find ourselves in Tampa Bay where the Rays outfield is looking awfully similar to the 2012 version. Same names, same faces, but with one minor exception. Whether it’s May or June or even after the All Star Break, the Rays will likely make a change that should provide them with a substantial power boost. The wait could finally be over. He’ll be here soon. Read the rest of this entry »
About a year ago, I very happily traded Ian Stewart for Matt Joyce and Reese Havens in an ottoneu league. Joyce was just $3; Stewart was $12 (Havens was also $3 but that isn’t really relevant – this is not a story about my infatuation with MI prospects, which is how I ended up with Stewart in the first place).
I thought this was a steal but the feedback from other owners was basically, “meh.” I was pretty surprised. Sure, Stewart had been a very good player, but he was about to lose 2B eligibility and move to a position where his value was much lower (I also had Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Bautista). I had turned a guy with what I saw as questionable value and a too-high salary into a dirt cheap #2 or #3 OF. But since then, I have heard a ton about every outfielder on the Rays roster (Carl Crawford became a Red Sox, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon became Rays, Manny became retired, Sam Fuld became a legend, Desmond Jennings became a star, BJ Upton became trade bait), but Joyce seemed to get lost in the shuffle.
The Rays cashed in some of their starting pitching depth by trading Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for Matt Joyce. What can we expect from Joyce in 2009?
It looks as if Joyce will be the primary right fielder for the Rays in 2009. And if there’s one thing that Joyce has consistently shown throughout his career, it’s that he can rake against righties.
Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 in 277 plate appearances with the Tigers this year – including a .255/.333/.509 line against righties. His splits in the minors are even more dramatic: this season Joyce hit .270/.352/.550 in triple-A, but crushed righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610. These trends are visible throughout Joyce’s minor league career, except for his stint in double-A, where he hit lefties and righties approximately equally.
Joyce has shown the propensity to strike out quite often in his career, and looks like he may be a “Three True Outcome” player – although probably not to the same extent as someone like Adam Dunn. However, it’s unlikely that Joyce will hit for a particularly high batting average, even though his BABIP in the majors (.293) was lower than his BABIP in the minors from this year (.328) or last year (.319). Marcel projects his batting average to be .266, which seems reasonable, if a touch optimistic.
Joyce’s power, however, seems to be real. He hits a lot of fly balls – 47.5% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and appears to be strong enough to muscle a lot of them out of the park. In fact, 14.1% of Joyce’s fly balls left the park this year, and he hit 25 homers in only 442 at bats between triple-A and the majors.
The Rays are certainly aware of Joyce’s limitations against lefties, and are likely to pair him with another outfielder who can hit lefties better. Therefore, Joyce is unlikely to be an everyday player; however, that doesn’t mean he’s not valuable. This year he crushed 25 homers despite getting less than 500 at bats – there’s no reason why he can’t homer at that pace again next year. Joyce will be particularly valuable in leagues with daily updates, since you can bench him whenever the Rays face a lefty. However, Joyce will still be very valuable in weekly update leagues as well, since when he does face righties he’s likely to be very, very good.
Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.