Archive for mat latos

For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching.  You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two.  With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters.  In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »

In this edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we go with players returning from injury and those who are directly affected by it.

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It’s Friday, you’re ducking out the door early, and you got somewhere to be and some adult beverages to drink. That makes sense. But here are a couple waiver wire candidates to ponder while you are still supposed to be pretending to work.

Carlos Lee, Houston (77% owned)
He’s 34, overweight at best, and in the middle of a very obvious and painful decline. His HR/FB, line drive rate, and ISO have all dropped off precipitously in the last three years. Let’s not mince words. But he’s hitting better recently – .277 with four home runs and two stolen bases over the last thirty days – and he has some regression coming in his favor, too. Even for a low-BABIP player (.287 career BABIP), his current .244 BABIP would be the worst of his career. That should normalize, even if, not surprisingly, his line drive rate is currently the second-worst of his career. He doesn’t strike out a lot – that part of his game has remained steady (10.1% this year, 12.9% career) – so all those balls he puts in play should help the BABIP regression along. He’s still 70 or so plate appearances away from having a reliable ISO, so his career-worst ISO (.161) has a chance to grow over the next few weeks as well. He’s pretty much a DH in the field, and without his power he will be nigh useless, but owners looking for an offensive shot in the arm from their bench should look his way. El Caballo will trot around the bases a few more times before he’s turned into glue.

Chris Young, San Diego (7% owned)
Young is having shoulder troubles, and that’s never good. But supposedly he’s pain free and ready to pitch a simulated game this weekend, which would have him on track to join the major league rotation in early September. It’s not immediately obvious who would drop from the rotation, but the Padres have talked about limiting the innings for Mat Latos (so great he only needs one ‘t’) and his young arm, so he could spot start there. Also, Kevin Correia has oscillated between starting and relieving over his career, and is currently sporting a 4.64 FIP. Young has never relieved and has a career 4.22 FIP even after all the damage he’s put on his career numbers with his recent injury-addled performances. The point is, the team could use him, and if he’s finally healthy again, maybe he can find his old control (3.5 BB/9 career, over four the last three years) that makes his stuff play better. We know Young likes PetCo – his 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP there in 255.1 innings is almost reason enough to pick up Young and stash him on your deep league disabled list.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.

Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.

Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.

SELL

David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.

Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.

Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.

HUNCH

Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Geo was a prime bounce-back candidate entering 2010, given that his strong walk and power numbers in ’09 were obscured by his batting average on balls in play taking a nose-dive. CHONE projected a .358 wOBA for the Cubbies backstop prior to the season, and ZiPS projected a .352 mark.

So far, Soto has outpaced those forecasts with a .386 wOBA. His BABIP, .246 last year, has shot up to .316 (his career average is .306), and he’s still driving the ball fairly often (.151 Isolated Power). The biggest reason Soto has scorched those pre-season forecasts, though, is his Bondsian walk rate — Geo has taken ball four in 22.1 percent of his plate appearances. That’s tops in the majors among batters with at least 100 PA.

Soto was a patient hitter in 2007 (20.1 outside-swing percentage) and 2008 (17.8 O-Swing). But this year, he has chased just 13.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches (second in the majors). Geo likely won’t keep this pace up, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection –.262/.357/.456, with a .360 wOBA –still makes him one of the best fantasy options at his position. Yet, Soto is still available in one-quarter of Yahoo Leagues. That makes me wanna take a Lou Pinella-like tantrum.

Mat Latos, Padres

As a 22-year-old starter who dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries on the farm, logging a career-high 127.2 innings between the minors and the majors in 2009, Latos isn’t likely to be burdened with a full-season big league workload in 2010. Still, he’s showing the excellent stuff — a 93-94 MPH fastball, an upper-80’s slider and a mid-80’s change — that allowed him to whiff 10.5 batters per nine frames as a prospect.

In 55.1 IP, Latos has 6.83 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 and a 3.81 xFIP. While the walk rate suggests he’s pounding the strike zone, that hasn’t been the case. Latos has placed 41.7% of his pitches in the zone, well below the 47.7% MLB average. Rather, the 6-6, 225 pound righty has induced swings on pitches off the plate 30.6% (27.6% MLB average). Latos has also gotten swinging strikes 9.3%, compared to the 8.3% MLB average. He’ll be handled cautiously, but Latos is a premium young arm in a pitcher’s paradise.

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

The former Pirate has already popped 14 home runs in 2010. For reference, he went deep 16 times in 2006, 15 in 2007 and 2008 and 13 in 2009. Bautista has a .325 ISO, basically doubling up on his pre-season projections (.163 CHONE, .162 ZiPS), and his wOBA is .393 (.320 pre-season CHONE and ZiPS).

He’s lofting the ball more than ever, with a 52.3 FB% (43.7% career average), and those fly balls are finding the stands a whopping 20.9% of the time (11.5% career average). Odds are, “Joey Bats” (as he was known in Pittsburgh) hasn’t become a hulking, elite power hitter. But you can’t just pretend that his power surge hasn’t happened, either.

The best course of action is to take those pre-season projections and incorporate the extra data points we’ve gotten on Bautista over the past two months. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .339 wOBA for Bautista, with a .201 ISO.

Ted Lilly, Cubs

Lilly has been one of the best free agent signings among starting pitchers since he inked a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs prior to 2007. The lefty compiled 10 WAR from 2007-2009, providing about $44 million in value. However, Lilly hasn’t looked as sharp in 2010.

The 34-year-old, who began the season on the DL recovering from left shoulder and knee surgery, has 5.02 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.83 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Lilly has never been known for velocity, but his heater is down to an average of 85.3 MPH in 2010 after sitting 87-88 MPH in recent seasons. His slider, typically around 82 MPH, is averaging 79.4 MPH.

Keep in mind the sample size, but Lilly’s whiff rates are down across the board (data from texasleaguers.com):

Lilly has garnered swinging strikes 5.9% this year, compared to a 9.5% career average. His contact rate is 87.5% (79.7% career average, 80-81% MLB average). Perhaps this is just a blip, but Lilly needs to start missing more bats to be an above-average big league starter.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

Granted, LaPorta spent more time on the surgeon’s table than in the batting cage this past off-season — he had surgery on his left hip and left toe. But the 25-year-old, Cleveland’s supposed big catch in the CC Sabathia deal, has been extremely disappointing this season.

The career .291/.384/.557 minor league hitter has a paltry .240 wOBA in 110 trips to the plate. LaPorta showed decent patience as a prospect with a 10.3% walk rate, but he has hacked at 32.7% of pitches off the plate this year. The most surprising aspect of his season, however, is a total lack of pop — his ISO is in Juan Pierre territory, at .059.

While fantasy owners shouldn’t write him off entirely, LaPorta has an uninspiring .329 rest-of-season wOBA projection from ZiPS. League-average hitting from a defensively-challenged corner outfielder/1B/DH just isn’t very valuable.

Randy Wolf, Brewers

Signed by Milwaukee to a three-year, $29.75M deal during the winter, Wolf benefitted from a low BABIP and a high rate of stranding base runners during a contract year in 2009. The result was a 3.23 ERA that outpaced his xFIP (4.17) by nearly a run.

Both CHONE (4.22 pre-season FIP projection) and ZiPS (4.19) predicted that Wolf would be more serviceable starter than top-shelf arm in 2010. So far, the new Brewer has fallen short of that level of performance. Wolf has 6.09 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and a 4.96 xFIP. The 33-year-old got swings on pitches out of the zone around 24% of the time in recent years, but that’s down to 20% this season. After putting about 53% of his pitches in the zone in 2008 and 2009, Wolf’s Zone% is 48.8. His swinging strike rate, around the MLB average recently, sits at 6.1%.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.85 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP. Wolf will likely pitch better from here on out, but that low-three’s ERA hurler from ’09 isn’t coming back.

Fantasy managers are no doubt already beginning to panic. Don’t fee bad, I’m currently 10th overall in a 10-team mixed (auction) league. If you’re already combing the waiver wire for help (mind you, it’s far too early to panic), there is some potential value to be found. Add these players to your watch lists if they’re not already there.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Toronto (8% owned)
Thankfully in fantasy baseball we don’t have to put up with Encarnacion’s brutal glove, which has already seen him make two errors in as many games. Still just 27, the third baseman has 25+ home run power and the Jays offense around him should be pretty good (it’s the pitching we really have to worry about). His batting average hasn’t been anything special over the past two seasons, but he’s also posted low BABIPs of .264 and .245 so there is plenty of room for improvement in that area. An average walk rate of 10.6% over the past two seasons suggests that Encarnacion has a pretty good eye at the plate and he’s shown a reasonable rate of strikeout in his career (for his power output).

J.J. Hardy | SS | Minnesota (21%)
One bad season all is forgotten in fantasy baseball. Hardy slugged 24 or more home runs in both ’07 and ’08 but slipped to 11 last season and also spent time in the minors. That was still good for the 12th most homers by a shortstop in the Majors in ’09; he has a chance to be more valuable in 2010 than some other ’09 shortstops such as Alexei Ramirez (2.2), Miguel Tejada (2.6), and Jason Bartlett (4.8), all of whom are owned in most leagues. Just 27, he’s poised for a rebirth in 2010 as a member of the Twins. Despite his struggles, Hardy has seen his walk rate improve each of the past three seasons.

Nick Johnson | DH | New York (23%)
I have to admit a little shock at the fact that Johnson is only owned by 23% of fantasy managers. He’s a proven veteran who just happens to be hitting at the top of a potent lineup. It must be the injury thing. I understand that but, when he’s healthy, Johnson can be a real benefit to a fantasy team in teams of runs scored and batting average. He even has 15-20 home run potential. If you’re playing in an on-base league, then you really should have the Walking Man. Johnson’s walk rate was 17.2% last season, third highest in the Majors last year and just behind Adrian Gonzalez and Adam Dunn. Interestingly, Johnson had just four intentional walks, while Gonzalez had 22 and Dunn had 16.

Mat Latos | RHP | San Diego (14%)
Youth + Power arm + Cavernous Park = Potential Stud. The 22-year-old Latos appears to be one of the best kept secrets in baseball. Everyone is jumping up and down about the Stephen Strasburgs and the Tommy Hansons, but they’re overlooking this kid. The right-hander held his own in 10 big league starts for the Padres in ’09. His walk rate of 4.09 BB/9 in the Majors was a tad high but was solid in the minors… especially for his age. He also displayed positive values on three of his four pitches. If he can show a little better control and improve ground-ball rate (36.1) he will be an absolute beast.

Ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

The 2010 San Diego Padres don’t figure to pose much of a threat in the NL West. CHONE projects a fourth-place finish for the club, while Oliver and PECOTA have the Pad people bringing up the rear in the division. San Diego will feature a lineup filled with players such as Kyle Blanks (23 years old) Everth Cabrera (23), Chase Headley (25), Nick Hundley (26), Tony Gwynn Jr. (27) and Will Venable (27) who are trying to establish themselves as fixtures in the team’s long-term plans.

However, the most highly regarded young Padre resides in the starting rotation. Mat Latos, 22, will open the year as San Diego’s fifth starter.

A 6-6, 225 pound right-hander from Florida, Latos dropped to the 11th round of the 2006 draft despite touching the mid-nineties during his senior season in high school. Teams were concerned about his bonus demands, but the Padres took a flyer. Latos attended Broward Community College in Florida, and eventually signed with San Diego through the now-defunct draft-and-follow process for a cool $1.25 million bonus.

Making his pro debut in 2007, Latos threw 56.1 innings for Eugene of the Short-Season Northwest League. He struck out 11.82 batters per nine innings and walked 3.51, posting a 2.19 FIP and rising to third on Baseball America’s list of Padres prospects. BA liked his “potential for three plus pitches”: 92-97 MPH gas, a hard curveball and a changeup.

In 2008, Latos was sidelined with variety of ailments. According to BA, Latos lost innings with “shoulder, oblique and attitude problems.” He tossed just 56 frames across three levels (Rookie Ball, Short-Season and High-A), whiffing 11.1 per nine innings and issuing 2.1 BB/9 with a FIP around three. Latos moved up a spot to #2 on the Padres’ prospect list, as he was praised for “ridiculously good” stuff but dinged for a “flippant attitude.”

This past year, Latos pummeled High-A and Double-A hitters before reaching the big leagues in July. He was sidelined with an ankle injury early in the season, but posted rates of 9.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a sub-two FIP (aided by an extremely low HR rate) in 72.1 innings between Fort Wayne and San Antonio.

Latos made 10 starts over 50.2 innings for the Padres, with 6.93 K/9, 4.09 BB/9 and a 4.67 xFIP. He showcased 94 MPH velocity, mixing in low-80’s breaking balls and changeups.

Considering the sample size, it’s best not to slice and dice Latos’ major league numbers too much. But we did get an indication of the quality of his stuff, as his contact rate (77.9 percent) came in below the 80-81% MLB average and his 10 percent swinging strike rate was above the 8.6% MLB norm.

In the long term, there’s a lot to like with Latos. He’s very talented, and he’ll have the benefit of making his home starts in a park that decreases run scoring around 25 percent compared to a neutral venue.

As for 2010, Latos could be a nice late-round pick. CHONE and ZiPS both predict that he will be an above-average starter:

CHONE: 87 IP, 7.66 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.98 FIP
ZiPS: 83 IP, 6.31 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 4.02 FIP

The big question regarding Latos is, how often will he pitch? The Padres will keep a close eye on his workload, given that Latos hasn’t come anywhere near throwing a full major league season’s worth of innings. Considering San Diego’s likely also-ran status, as well as Latos’ long-terms promise and durability concerns, expect the righty to be handled conservatively.

Latos is a strong pick in keeper leagues, and he should be pretty good when he pitches in 2010. Just don’t draft him expecting a big innings total.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 18

Scott Baker – Home runs have been the downfall of Baker this season. In his first 10 games of the season, Baker allowed 15 HR in 59.2 IP. But since then, Baker has permitted just 5 HR in his last 50.2 innings. He is 5-1 in that stretch with a 3.86 ERA. Make sure Baker is active for his two road starts this week. Away from the Metrodome, Baker’s ERA is a full run lower than his home mark.

Mat Latos – Despite some trouble with the gopher ball (4 HR in 16.2 IP), Latos has been very impressive in his first three starts. He has a 3.25 K/BB ratio and is averaging 7.02 K/9. Latos’ fastball averages 94.7 and he relies upon it heavily, throwing it over 72 percent of the time. Get him on your roster and active for his home starts this week against the Braves and Mets.

Charlie Morton – Six of his first eight starts for the Pirates have come on the road. This week the people of Pittsburgh will get to see their recent acquisition live two times. In his first two appearances at PNC, Morton has allowed just three runs in 14 IP. Morton has been solid overall for the Pirates, posting a FIP nearly identical to his ERA and averaging 6.52 K/9. Most likely still available on the waiver wire in your league, Morton is a potential keeper for the rest of the season and a nice play for his two home starts this week.

Brad Penny – In his last seven outings, Penny is 1-3 with a 5.31 ERA. He is not getting better with regular work and depending on what the Red Sox do later today, with the trade deadline looming, his rotation spot could disappear, too. So, do not expect two starts from Penny and if he does go twice, do not expect performances that will help your fantasy team.

Randy Wells – His last two full seasons in Triple-A, Wells allowed BABIPs of .345 and .325 with identical 69.5 percent strand rates each year. So, this year in the majors he has a .278 BABIP and an 80.6 percent strand rate. This seems like as good a week as any for the luck to run out, with road starts at the Great American Ball Park and at Coors Field. Put him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 18 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Greinke, Cain, J. Vazquez, Haren, J. Johnson, Lackey, Kershaw, Chamberlain, Duke, Kazmir, Harang, Kuroda, Feldman, B. Anderson, Hochevar, Bergesen, Parra, Moyer, Kawakami, Tillman, Hammel, Contreras, Rowland-Smith, Hampton, Stuaffer, G. Gonzalez, French, Holland, Laffey, Petit, Mock, Martin

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 16 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to sit. 13.50 ERA, 0 K (!), 2.31 WHIP (2 starts)
Cecil – Advised to start. W, 0.64 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.29 WHIP (2)
Gaudin – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.38 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to sit. 4.91 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.27 WHIP (2)
E. Santana – Advised to start. W, 10.24 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.76 WHIP (2)

Hopefully you were able to pick up Roy Oswalt and Tim Stauffer last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Kevin Youkilis – His AVG has taken a big hit since coming off the DL, falling 89 points. But nobody seriously expected him to challenge for .400, either. He is riding a modest six-game hitting streak and more importantly, is showing good power. In his last 16 games, Youkilis has a .281-5-14-13-0 fantasy line. He seems like a good bet to match last year’s power numbers, which many people doubted Youkilis could do again in 2009.

Oliver Perez – I can hear the groans already. Perez is terrible, he has no control and he is just as likely to get shelled as he is to pitch a good game. But in his first two games since being back, Perez has delivered exactly what a fantasy owner should expect from him – a W, good strikeout numbers (8 in 11 IP) and a high but acceptable ERA (4.09). I would recommend not actually watching him pitch, but in his 14 or so remaining starts if Perez delivers 6 W, a 4.00 ERA and his current 7.71 K/9, I think that would be nice production for the back of a team’s rotation from a guy likely available on the waiver wire.

Garret Anderson – Stat heads hate him because he does not walk and posts poor OBP numbers. But fantasy players like his AVG and respectable numbers in other categories. In mid-June, Anderson was hitting just .254 but since then his bat has been heating up. Over his last 30 games, Anderson is batting .336 with 17 RBIs in 107 ABs. He is no longer an everyday player, but Anderson still has the ability to hit for a high AVG and not kill you in the power categories.

Mat Latos – This week’s Padres pitcher recovering from an injury is Latos. He was ranked as one of the top HS pitchers in the 2006 draft but fell due to signability concerns. The Padres took him on the 11th round and he ended up at Broward CC. After a good JuCo season, San Diego gave him a seven-figure signing bonus before the ’07 draft. Latos missed most of the 2008 season with a strained intercostals muscle. But he was very impressive this season in the minors, going 8-1 with 1.37 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 72.1 innings combined between Single-A and Double-A, with the majority of his work occurring in the Texas League. Latos has already made one start for the Padres, where he showed a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph. He is on a strict pitch count for right now, which may limit his W potential, but he is a talented pitcher who may be under the radar of many fantasy owners.

Miguel Montero – For most of the first three months of the season, Montero was a huge disappointment. But he has a .413/.439/.683 slash line over his last 16 games. After teasing fantasy owners with glimpses of talent the past two seasons at the major league level, Montero apparently is putting it together here in July.

Exchange

Todd Helton – After last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Helton has bounced back with an impressive .324 AVG. In his last 22 games, Helton is batting .346 but it is the “emptiest” .346 you are likely ever to see. He has just 1 HR, 10 RBIs and 8 R in that span and 0 SB. Helton’s .359 BABIP is not out of line with marks he has put up in his past but it would surprise virtually nobody if that mark fell some and at this point, AVG is the only category that Helton is a plus player anymore.

A.J. Burnett – The strikeouts are down while the walks and HR allowed are up from 2008. Yet his ERA is 26 points lower than a season ago. Burnett’s FIP checks in at 90 points higher than his ERA. A slightly lower than normal .283 BABIP helps but the big thing right now is a career-best 79.5 percent strand rate. Burnett is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last six games, but that includes 14 shutout innings against the Mets, a team he will not see again this season.

Alfonso Soriano – A .279 BABIP gives hope for a second-half rebound for Soriano, but as R.J. Anderson pointed out earlier in the month, pitchers have altered their approach to Soriano and his season-long slump shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs to Soriano and his numbers have declined across the board. Outside of RBIs, Updated ZiPS has him failing to reach the fantasy numbers he put up in 2007, when he played in 135 games. Soriano is on target for 155 games this year.

Brad Penny – The good news is that he pitches for a team that scores 5.16 runs per game and his FIP is 81 points lower than his ERA. The bad news is that his spot in the rotation is hardly guaranteed. He has been a decent option in deep mixed leagues or AL-only ones, but time appears to be running out. His first start after the All-Star break (5 IP, 6 ER) was not encouraging.

Jonny Gomes – A .304/.395/.549 slash line looks great for a player bound to see more playing time with the injury to Jay Bruce. But Gomes has a .397 BABIP and he is unlikely to maintain his 18.2 HR/FB ratio going forward. Also, the Cincinnati fan base turned on Adam Dunn for his propensity to strike out often. How will they treat a full-time Gomes who has a 32.4 percent K rate this season, which would look right in line with Dunn’s Reds career?

Well, it’s the last day of June. There are still three more months of baseball to play before the post-season begins, but a few teams can all but pack it in. Today, we’re going to take a look at the five teams that have the misfortune of being the furthest down in the standings. I am going to highlight one minor league player for each club that could (should) come up in the second half of the season and offer a spark for fantasy baseball managers in dire need of some help.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (18.5 games back):
Arizona’s No. 5 pitchers have been downright awful this season and No. 5 starter Jon Garland has not been much better. If it eats a little salary, the club might be able to spin 2008/09 free agent signee Garland (who’s on a one-year deal) to a playoff contender before the trading deadline. Right-handed pitcher Cesar Valdez is having a nice season in triple-A and is the top option to receive a look in the second half of the year. He has modest fastball velocity, but Valdez possesses a plus changeup, a pretty good splitter and knows how to change speeds. So far this season in triple-A, he has allowed 72 hits in 76 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of just 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.16 K/9. He’s not flashy, but Valdez should be a more-than-adequate No. 4 starter for an organization that lacks premium prospects at the upper levels of the farm system.

The Washington Nationals (17.5 games back):
We’ve already seen quite a few young pitchers perform for the Nationals this season and the organization is still recovering (especially in the upper minors) from years of MLB control, which hampered draft budgets. With starting pitchers like Craig Stammen and Ross Detwiler having modest-at-best results, the club could still afford to take a look at a couple triple-A hurlers who have yet to receive a taste of the Majors this season: Collin Balester and J.D. Martin. I won’t get into Martin’s case too heavily, since Dave took a look at the former Cleveland prospect the other day over on the FanGraphs side of the site and made a pretty convincing argument for his promotion. Balester, on the other hand, made 15 starts for the 2008 Nationals and showed that he still had work to do after allowing 92 hits in 80 innings and posting an ERA of 5.51 (5.11 FIP). This season in triple-A, he’s still been a little too hittable with 89 hits allowed in 81.1 innings, but he’s trimmed his home run problem from a rate of 1.60 to 0.33 HR/9. Balester has also trimmed his 2008 triple-A FIP of 4.92 down to 3.59 this season.

The San Diego Padres (15 games back):
PETCO Park and Mat Latos just might be a match made in heaven. The 21-year-old right-hander has been absolutely dominating in the minors this season – originally in high-A ball and now in double-A. In 11 combined appearances, the hurler has a 1.28 ERA and has allowed just 37 hits in 63.1 innings of work. At double-A, he has a walk rate of 2.13 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.00 K/9. His FIP is 1.99. Latos, though, is a fly ball pitcher (despite allowing just one homer this season). It helps that he has a repertoire that includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph, a wicked slider and a developing changeup. With help from PETCO’s larger-than-average dimensions, he could be a very dominating pitcher in short order.

The Baltimore Orioles (13 games back):
The organization has already debuted the most highly-anticipated rookie of 2009 in catcher Matt Wieters. It also has outfielder Nolan Reimold making a legitimate charge at the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. With rookie starters Brad Bergesen and Koji Uehara also pitching well, you might think the high-level prospect cupboard would be bare, but it’s not. The triple-A rotation contains three promising rookie pitchers in Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Troy Patton. Tillman, though, is probably the closest to being MLB-ready. The right-hander, unlike the other two hurlers, has spent the entire season in triple-A and he has posted a 2.97 ERA (2.80 FIP). Tillman has allowed 62 hits in 72.2 innings of work and he’s posted rates of 2.60 BB/9 and 9.29 K/9. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, plus curveball and good changeup.

The Cleveland Indians (12 games back):
You’ve already seen him once and he struggled a bit in his first taste of MLB action, but it’s hard to keep a good prospect down. Left-fielder Matt LaPorta hit just .190/.286/.286 in his first 13 MLB games, but he’s gone back down to the minors and worked hard. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from more than 20% in his career down to 16.7%. The former college catcher has also continued to hit above .300 while also hitting the ball with authority (.219 ISO, 22.7 LD%). Sooner or later, the club is going to tire of Ben Francisco’s (lack of) hitting: .225/.303/.356 in 236 at-bats.