Archive for Marlins

The Marlins pulled into the top of the ninth inning with a 7-3 lead against the Reds on Friday night, and even though it was not a save situation, it felt a little odd to see Junichi Tazawa — and not A.J. Ramos — take the mound. It had the feel of an audition for the closer’s role, given that Ramos was likely to be moved at any time. After letting Scott Schebler lead off the inning with a no-doubter blast to right field, Tazawa set the next three Reds down in order.

Shortly after the game, it became apparent why Don Mattingly didn’t call upon Ramos. The Marlins dealt their closer to the Mets in exchange for a couple of prospects: righty Merandy Gonzalez and outfielder Ricardo Cespedes. Before going to Tazawa, Mattingly brought in Dustin McGowan to hold the game at 3-3 in the seventh inning, and in the eighth inning, he summoned Drew Steckenrider to protect the four-run lead built in the bottom of the seventh. With Kyle Barraclough (shoulder) and Nick Wittgren (elbow) on the DL, it would not be surprising to see McGowan and Steckenrider in some future high-leverage situations. However, according to MLB.com, the Marlins are expected to activate Brad Ziegler (back) on Saturday. He will probably present the strongest challenge to Tazawa as the team’s future closer, though Ziegler has been out for more than a month, so he could conceivably start off in some lower-leverage situations upon his return.
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Before getting on with the business of breaking down Friday’s bullpen developments, there was one closer situation worth checking in on from Thursday’s short slate of games. The Angels brought a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning against the Twins, and manager Mike Scioscia entrusted it to Jose Alvarez, rather than Bud Norris. The Twins had Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario coming up — in other words, a pair of lefties sandwiching a switch hitter who is batting .218 against southpaws. As it turned out, Alvarez blew the save and was tagged with the loss, as he stuck around long enough to give up a single to Jason Castro (another lefty) that scored Polanco and Rosario.

Norris came in after the Castro single to face Brian Dozier, so this had the look of a closer platoon. However, Scioscia told reporters he did not bring Norris in to start the ninth inning because of his lingering knee soreness. While Huston Street has had a setback in his rehab stint, experiencing tightness in his right triceps, Cam Bedrosian is expected back next week. Not only are Norris’ days as the Angels’ closer possibly numbered, but it doesn’t appear he will be a reliable source of saves between now and when Bedrosian returns. Read the rest of this entry »

I mean, it’s not that surprising. It’s the only outfield with a Giancarlo Stanton, which would be enough to elevate any outfield out of the cellars. It has a Christian Yelich, too, who hits the ball hard but had been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment, having failed thus far to live up to any kind of power potential he once had.

Still, the Marlins are the game’s second-best offensive outfield, per wRC+ (weighted runs created). That’s kind of surprising. I mean, we knew the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield, which currently ranks first, would be good. And we probably thought the Chicago Cubs’ outfield, with all its talent and depth, would generate solid offensive numbers, but they’re only 10th.

While it’s a feel-good story riding on the high of a finally-vindicated Marcell Ozuna, it doesn’t look entirely sustainable. But it doesn’t mean we can’t dream, and there are some reasons to be optimistic about the already-established Stanton and Yelich as well as the still-young Ozuna.

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My best friend is an Atlanta Braves fan. He was born and raised in Puerto Rico and since TBS broadcasted games, that became his team. He’s stuck with them now as we are both into our 40’s, but after the Marlins shellacked Alex Wood 9-0, he sent me a text overnight – “Marlins are stealing signs at home, I’m convinced of it.”

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Episode 91

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Seattle Mariners and the Miami Marlins.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 67 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

Rookies of the Year have a mixed record of success after their first season. Some, like Albert Pujols, Justin Verlander, and Ryan Braun, go on to have many productive seasons and great careers. Others, like Bobby Crosby, Dontrelle Willis, and Angel Berroa collect their trophy and promptly crater. It’s too early in Chris Coghlan’s career to unceremoniously drop him in that second category just yet, but his wRC+ in 2012 was five. That’s it, just five, or the equivalent of 95 percent below league average, so he was certainly headed in the direction of obscurity. Recently, however, not only has Coghlan (ESPN: 6.7 percent owned; Yahoo!: 3 percent owned) received consistent playing time in a way he hadn’t in previous seasons, he has been hitting the cover off the ball. Read the rest of this entry »

In his third season in the majors last year, Dan Uggla set career marks in HR (32) and RBIs (92) and re-gained 15 points in average that he lost from the year before. It would appear that Uggla is on a fantasy upswing but there are just enough warning signs to make owners leery about investing too much in him.

Uggla has an ADP of 59 according to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, making him a late fifth-round pick and putting him in the second tier of second baseman along with Alexei Ramirez and possibly Robinson Cano.

But Uggla hit under .200 versus LHP last year and continued a career pattern of fading in the second half of the season. In 2008, Uggla had a .739 OPS after the All-Star break, compared to a .978 mark before it. Major League pitchers fed Uggla a steady diet of off-speed pitches. He saw a fastball on just 50.2 percent of his at-bats last year, the second-lowest mark in the majors.

Ordinarily, these numbers would not mean too much. But in the off-season, the Marlins acquired Emilio Bonifacio, a speedy second baseman with an excellent defensive reputation. Uggla’s reputation in the field is not good (although defensive metrics show a big improvement in 2008) and his performance in the All-Star game certainly didn’t help any.

There have been all kinds of rumors about what Florida plans to do with its infield, with speculation having one or the other between Uggla and Bonifacio moving to the hot corner.

Either way, it seems unlikely that the Marlins acquired Bonifacio to be a bench player. How will Uggla react if he has to switch positions? If Bonifacio opens the season as a super-sub, will the Marlins keep Uggla on a short leash if he gets off to a slow start? How will Uggla’s arbitration case with the team affect his status?

It seems silly to have to worry about a player who has averaged 30 HR a season for his three years in the majors. But the Marlins have not been embracing Uggla here in the off-season. Besides the trade for Bonifacio, they refused to even consider a long-term contract for Uggla, despite his desire to team up with Hanley Ramirez as the team’s double play combo for years to come.

These concerns can be dismissed as idle speculation. But when it comes to a high draft pick, it seems unnecessarily risky to spend a fifth-round pick on a guy about whom his current team seems to be lukewarm.

Matt Lindstrom can throw a baseball 100 miles per hour. And if that was not good enough, the Marlins traded Kevin Gregg in the off-season, clearing the closer’s job for Lindstrom. With Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor as his main competition, it appears Lindstrom should be the team’s closer on Opening Day. So, why isn’t there more excitement surround Lindstrom? He does not crack the top 200 in early ADP reports.

Last year, Lindstrom’s walk rate was less than good. He suffered through a minor back injury and spent some time in the minors. But when he was with the Marlins, he posted a 4.08 BB/9 which led to a 1.45 WHIP. His previous track record with walks is spotty. Lindstrom was very good with the Marlins in 2007, with a 2.82 BB/9, but his minor league record shows seasons in line with 2008.

Gregg notched 61 saves for the Marlins over the past two seasons with a walk rate similar to Lindstrom’s mark last season. But let’s not get bogged down with his walks. In addition to his velocity, Lindstrom is also a groundball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio last year was 1.54, which led to a microscopic 0.16 HR/9, the fourth-lowest total among relievers. Some might think that he’s in for a major regression but in 2007 his HR/9 checked in at 0.27 for the year.

The combination of a top-notch fastball, lots of ground balls and very few home runs allowed is an attractive one for a potential closer. One thing to be wary of is that Lindstrom has agreed to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Instead of spending Spring Training refining his slider and firmly establishing himself as the team’s closer, Lindstrom will be setting up Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Broxton and others.

While that is a concern, it should not override a guy with an excellent shot of posting 30+ saves with solid strikeout numbers. In his two years in the majors, Lindstrom has a 7.60 K/9 rate. That’s a nice combo for a guy going in the lower 20 percent of mock drafts currently.