Archive for Marlins

As daunting as chasing saves can be, adding in the pending trade deadline to trade rumors makes it difficult to publish an early report. But here we are. News of a hugwatch broke out on Twitter suggesting Jeurys Familia could be on the move. He did not enter an obvious save opportunity against the Yankees on the road leaving Robert Gsellman in for the two inning save. While news broke on which teams would not be adding Familia, it appears the focus centers on Oakland trying to obtain his services to add to their already stocked bullpen. If the A’s do not wish to overpay in a scarce starting pitcher market, why not try to shorten games with a deep bullpen? Familia’s yet to allow a run in seven scoreless outings in July yielding one hit in them. He’s also been scoreless in 10 of his last 11 appearances. It needs to be pointed out Familia should setup if he joins the A’s due to his inability to get left-handed hitters out this year (.288 batting average against).

However, since there’s no official word as of this writing, the charts will not be updated until teams announce a deal. As for the Mets, it appears Robert Gsellman could transition to the closer role with Anthony Swarzak struggling and Seth Lugo needed for multiple inning outings. Gsellman did give up two unearned runs against the Yankees on two hits and two walks with two strikeouts during his two inning save. It’s his fifth save this year but Gsellman will need to rebound in the second half in order to appeal to fantasy owners. He’s coughed up 13 earned runs over his last 12 games (14.1 innings) resulting in a 8.18 ERA. Perhaps the break will help him bounce back, but it could be a bumpy ride if he does ascend to the ninth inning. Read the rest of this entry »

While fantasy owners lament when Brandon Morrow does not receive a save opportunity, it’s time for them to adjust to his usage going forward. Morrow received three days off after working in consecutive outings this weekend. On the season, Morrow’s pitched in back-to-back games five times all season. He’s 20-for-22 in save chances with a terrific 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but the Cubs will continue to handle him with care with an eye on the playoffs. Roster limitations can affect attempting to handcuff this bullpen so it’s time to adjust to the situation at hand instead of hoping it evolves going forward. Of course, missing out on saves stinks, but having Morrow healthy during the second half outweighs fantasy implications.

With at least three members of the Marlins bullpen linked in trade rumors, racking up extra inning games does not help limit usage. Kyle Barraclough allowed three hits while striking out the side to keep the game tied last night but has surrendered nine hits his last six innings after holding hitters to six hits his first 30 games. Regression to the mean happens all the time in baseball, so noting Barraclough’s 1.31 ERA accompanies a 3.61 FIP along with a 92.4 left-on-base percentage hints more could be on the way.  Drew Steckenrider blew his third save giving up two hits and two earned runs with a walk while striking out two. After recording 19.2 straight scoreless innings, Steckenrider’s allowed runs in back-to-back games on four hits and two walks. Read the rest of this entry »

It seemed like Kenley Jansen would close out his 22nd straight save with a two strike count against Shohei Ohtani in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. However, Ohtani battled back drawing a walk, then stole second base during which an errant throw allowed him to move to third. A single by David Fletcher tied the game, then a single to right field by Ian Kinsler eventually scored Fletcher after a bobble and an overthrow to home let the winning run score. On the surface, it’s tough loss. Jansen owned not backing up home on the play which resulted in the winning run scoring, saying and I quote, “That’s my fault.” The blown save is Jansen’s first since April 17th when he fell to two-for-four in saves with an inflated 8.10 ERA. Since then, Jansen whittled his ERA down with a 1.06 ERA over 34 outings converting 21 straight saves, until last night.

However, when targeting a closer at Jansen’s average draft position, it’s to own an elite closer with strong ratios. Jansen’s accrued 23 saves so far this year but with a 2.40 ERA, 3.01 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. Very good, but not in the upper echelon of closers this season. Perhaps it’s his losing a tick off of his velocities on his fastball and cutter or it’s the cumulative effect of pitching in the postseason each of the last five years including into the World Series last season. He’s only blown three saves but the strikeout percentage drop of over 16 percent, Jansen’s swinging strike percentage decrease of almost six percent along with his contact allowed up over nine percent. Getting the All-Star break off could help Jansen but due to his peripheral statistics lagging compared to past performance, he will be fine going forward, just not his to his usual elite status from seasons prior. Read the rest of this entry »

A two-start streak — good or bad — is typically not enough for drawing strong conclusions about a pitcher’s value, but hey, a meaningful upturn or downturn has to start somewhere.

For Wei-Yin Chen and Kyle Gibson, a change in fortune would not be totally unexpected. Chen’s three-year tenure with the Marlins has been marred by injury and a level of performance that has paled in comparison to that which he enjoyed with the Orioles. Perhaps we’re finally starting to see the version of the lefty the Marlins expected when they signed him to a five-year, $80 million deal. Gibson, on the other hand, is enjoying the best season of his career, but could he be on the precipice of regression?
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For the skills over role consensu, Kyle Barraclough continues to thrive as the closer for the Marlins in spite of starting the season as the primary setup reliever. Barraclough notched his fifth save firing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts in his fourth outing over the last five days. He’s yielded no runs his last 16 games spanning 15.2 innings and only allowed one hit in these appearances. During the season, Barraclough’s not given up a hit in 25 of his 32 outings and been scoreless in 28 of them. Although he’s battled control issues in the past, Barraclough’s 1.15 ERA and 0.80 WHIP suggest he’s settling into the role quite well. Just plan on Miami giving him a day off on Saturday if possible to keep him healthy going forward.

It feels like one step forward and two steps back with Felipe Vazquez this season. He did record his 13th save allowing a hit but striking out two, including Joey Votto, to secure a win for the Pirates on Friday night. On the surface, Vazquez has blown four of his last eight save chances with an ERA of 4.55 yet a FIP of 2.87, so which number should fantasy owners focus on? Vazquez has cut down his hard hit percentage allowed by 5.6 points. However, he’s traded ground balls for line drives. His underlying discipline statistics do not display complete erosion of his skills as his swinging strike percentage approaches his 2016 numbers, but owners drafted Vazquez for the upside he displayed in the first half of last year. Over the last 14 days, Vazquez has worked 5.1 innings with nine strikeouts against five walks with a 3.38 ERA and 2.53 FIP. Almost a encapsulation of his season so far with hints of upside paired with the high amount of walks. Perhaps he can turn this around like Kenley Jansen did in April, but it’s not for the risk averse. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy owners tend to give good hitters on bad teams short shrift, and that was certainly the case for Justin Bour this spring. Even though he was coming off a breakout season in which he batted .289 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI in 429 plate appearances, Bour fell to the late rounds in many leagues, lagging behind the less accomplished Greg Bird and Josh Bell in ADP.

Two-and-a-half months into the season, the Marlins first baseman seems to be validating owners’ fears. He ranks 29th in a largely-disappointing pool of first basemen in terms of Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater). Bour is batting just .242, and despite posting a .375 OBP, he has scored just 24 runs. With 10 home runs and 27 RBI in 253 plate appearances, he is well behind last season’s pace for both stats. It’s little wonder he is widely available in 12-team mixed leagues.
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The Pirates may have been insisting that Felipe Vazquez is healthy, but something appears to be wrong. After rebounding from a string of subpar performances with solid outings on Tuesday and Wednesday, Vazquez blew his fourth save in 12 days on Thursday night against the Cardinals. He was entrusted with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning, but before he could get an out, he loaded the bases and then gave up a two-RBI single to Luke Voit. (In fairness to Vazquez, Tommy Pham reached base by way of a Sean Rodriguez fielding error.) On Vazquez’s very next pitch, Yairo Munoz homered on a 96 mph fastball in the middle of the plate for a walk-off victory.

Clint Hurdle summed up his closer’s performance when he said Vazquez “couldn’t get any swings outside the zone and they barreled up everything in the zone.” That has not only been the case for Thursday’s performance. Over his last six appearances, Vazquez has induced chases on only 26.0 percent of his pitches that have missed the strike zone. He has allowed 23 hit balls over this stretch, and nine of them have been line drives. These trends have contributed to Vazquez allowing nine runs (seven earned) on 12 hits and three walks over just 3.2 innings.
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As bullpen usage continues to evolve, chasing saves could become even more difficult. For example, over the last seven games the Phillies have used three different pitchers in save opportunities. A week ago Saturday, Seranthony Dominguez notched the first major league save of his career. On Monday, Hector Neris returned to the ninth inning en route to his ninth save. Yesterday, Dominguez worked 1.1 innings, one out in the seventh and the eighth inning paving the way for Luis Garcia to pitch the ninth. Garcia yielded one hit and struck out one for his first save of the season. Four players on the roster have registered a save this month, including Edubray Ramos. Due to Philadelphia’s depth in the their bullpen, this could persist through the remainder of the season with other teams watching closely.

Losing Andrew Miller to the disabled list (knee inflammation) will continue to test the already fragile psyche of Cleveland’s bullpen. For one day at least, they rebounded to close out the Astros. Zach McAllister did give up a run during his 1.1 innings of work but held on for his third hold. Tyler Olson and Dan Otero shared the eighth inning with Olson getting one out and Otero pitched two-thirds of an inning. Cody Allen, the saving grace so far, notched his eighth save in a clean ninth inning with a strikeout. Allen’s made 18 scoreless appearances out of 22 this year and over his last seven games has worked 6.2 innings with a 2.69 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and seven strikeouts. He will be tested with a shaky bridge leading up to him going forward. Read the rest of this entry »

San Diego’s record may preclude fantasy owners from realizing how strong the bullpen remains to be. Brad Hand notched his 13th save working 1.1 innings giving up his first hit to a left-handed hitter all year (a double to Corey Dickerson) with two strikeouts. This marks his 15th scoreless outing over his last 17 and lowered his ERA to 2.31 on the season. Kirby Yates recorded his seventh hold allowing a walk with two strikeouts. He’s only given up one earned run in his last 17 appearances comprising 15 innings of work, limiting hitters to a .140 batting average against with 20 strikeouts so far, but 11 in his last 5.2 innings.

Also underappreciated, Blake Treinen closed out his ninth save in a 1.1 inning outing with three strikeouts in Toronto. In May, he’s accounted for a win and converted all six save chances in eight games. During these 9.2 innings, Treinen’s yielded seven hits, one earned run and three walks with 11 strikeouts. He’s nine for 11 in save opportunities this year with five of them requiring him to record more than three outs along with having to pitch more than one inning in nine of his 16 outings this year.  Read the rest of this entry »

After the Phillies announced there would be a committee approach to the ninth inning, fantasy owners should worry. Gabe Kapler’s still plying his trade as a first year manager armed with an emerging bullpen. Hector Neris started the year in the traditional closer role, but lost the role following a blown save last Friday. Edubray Ramos recorded his first save on Sunday yet no clarity arose. On Wednesday, Philadelphia started with Ramos in the top of the ninth in a save situation and he responded by striking out both hitters he faced on six pitches, both being right-handed batters. Then, they brought in Neris to pitch to Chris Davis, a left-handed slugger, who grounded out to second base securing the win. For the Phillies, the win will be the important factor, not preventing Ramos or Neris from notching a save. This will be important to remember when trying to chase saves in this bullpen going forward, especially given Ramos has limited left-handed hitters to a .200 batting average against this year compared .184 for Neris. No matter how the team spins the ninth, it’s going to be match-up based which will mean headaches for the saves chasers looking at this bullpen. All being told, it may be easier to avoid until clarity arises.

One day removed from suggesting a fluid bullpen, Atlanta provided Arodys Vizcaino with a redemption save chance last night. Vizcaino responded with his first clean save of the season. It’s Vizcaino’s eighth save and even though he has his warts, he’s closed out 20 of 23 save chances dating back to July 30th of last year. Of course, overlooking his 10 walks in 20.2 innings of work this year would be shortsighted, but dropping him due to the latest committee warning would be as well. A.J. Minter garnered the win in relief working one inning giving up a hit and striking out one. Many will keep tabs on Dan Winkler, and rightly so, due to his minuscule 0.98 ERA and 0.65 WHIP with 27 strikeouts versus 67 total batters faced (40.3 strikeout percentage) in 18.1 innings. With Vizcaino working the last two games, perhaps Winkler will get an audition on Thursday? Read the rest of this entry »