Archive for Mark Trumbo

Humor me for a second. Pretend that you don’t already know this post is about Mark Trumbo. OK, good.

As of Monday morning, through 48 plate appearances, Bryce Harper hit six home runs, stolen three bases and walked twice as often as he struck out. It’s ridiculous to extrapolate, but acknowledge that Harper has basically replicated Barry Bonds‘ historic and infamous 2001 batting line through a small sample size, and it gives you a sense of just how monstrous of a start Harper has had — at just 23 years old.

Now, try to comprehend that Harper, per weighted runs created (wRC+), isn’t even the best hitter in the game right now. There must be luck involved, you think to yourself, and you’re certainly right in one instance: Daniel Murphy and his .500 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) have vaulted Murphy to the top of the leaderboard.

But right below him, sandwiched between him and Harper, mere decimal points of a percentage point of wRC+ better than Harper, is Mark Trumbo. Mark Trumbo, of the career 110 wRC+, is, in a sense, hitting like peak Barry Bonds. They got there in different ways, but numbers are numbers. I guess everyone is due for a good week, Trumbo included, right? Or is there something more to this?

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Earlier this week, Jeff Zimmerman presented Early 2015 Hitter Projections using Steamer and/or ZIPS averaged ROS projections. The main contingency at this time: all values are set to 600 plate appearances. If I had all the time in the world, I would go through the list and manually adjust the PA based on lineup position, career PA/G, etc, but I’m not that much of a Mensch.

The next day, Mike Podhorzer highlighted some of the surprises ranked in the top 30. Again the 600 PA contingency is clear as Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson and Corey Dickerson make the list although if Dickerson doesn’t get platooned, I (and Mike) think he’ll surpass expectations. His splits page tells us there is no good reason to platoon him.

In Mike’s intro, he also referenced that there is no adjustment for position in Jeff’s SGP rankings. That’s where this post comes in.

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Either I do way too many mock drafts and have personally skewed the ADP numbers everywhere or the word is out. Mark Trumbo is a hot commodity this season. Though his positioning found here in our “consensus rankings” at both first base and in the outfield  doesn’t exactly scream, “You want Mark Trumbo,” I firmly believe that you do. Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks shocked much of the baseball community when they parted with a pair of promising young players — Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton — to acquire a legitimate home run threat in Mark Trumbo. Thus, the remaining trio of Gerardo Parra, A.J. Pollock and Cody Ross will now jockey for regular playing time in center and right fields instead of splitting major time in all three positions.

Home run power doesn’t solely define an outfielder’s overall value. On-base skills, contact skills, speed and defense are vitally important, but when it comes to the Trumbo addition, it’s not difficult to understand why Kevin Towers and the Diamondbacks felt they needed to upgrade their power at the outfield position. Last season, their collective outfield finished dead last in home runs and ISO.
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Remember when Mark Trumbo came up in 2011 and finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting, thanks largely to things like “29 homers and 87 RBI”, and we all laughed because his .291 OBP made him seem like a one-dimensional slugger who had caveman skills and little else? It seemed he’d be further marginalized in 2012 when Albert Pujols arrived and Kendrys Morales returned, but after a laughable attempt to play third base, Trumbo found a home in the outfield, as well as getting 38 starts at first base and DH. He maintained the power, but increased the OBP to .317, helped by a walk rate that went from an atrocious 4.4% to a still-not-great 6.1%.

Headed into an age-27 season and bolstered by the trade of Morales as well as the health concerns of Pujols, Trumbo looked like he might be in for a big season, but whether you consider his year successful or not really depends on how you perceive such things. From a standard 5×5 fantasy point of view, it was a very good year. Trumbo hit 34 homers, scored 85 runs, and drove in 100 — career highs, all — more than enough to make up for a poor .234 batting average. Read the rest of this entry »

If you were to pick an area of the Angels that was their Achilles heel last season, you’d have to start with a look at the failures of their starting pitching. Yet during the offseason, the Angels made the biggest splash in the free agent market when they opted to throw another $125 million into their outfield and continued to transform their lineup into a premium offensive juggernaut. For fantasy owners looking for both power and speed in the outfield, the Halos have become a one-stop shop that can easily satisfy all of your needs. Read the rest of this entry »

Headed into 2012, Mark Trumbo stood pretty close to the top of the “most overrated lists” from the perspective of most advanced baseball sites. Yes, 29 homers, 87 runs batted in, and a second-place finish in the Rookie of the Year ballot in 2011 looked really nice on the surface, but you didn’t have to look too hard to see signs of concern beyond that. The ugly .291 OBP stands out, of course, but the high strikeout rate and total inability to take a walk were even more concerning. Of the 145 qualified hitters in 2011, only two had a lower BB/K mark, and beating out Miguel Olivo for anything should hardly be a cause for celebration. It wasn’t hard to think that pitchers could exploit that weakness in Trumbo’s second time around the league, especially when he would also have to contend with attempting to learn a new position. With the imported Albert Pujols and the recovering Kendrys Morales taking most of the first base / designated hitter time, Trumbo was asked to try to convert to third base.

This all made for a very uncertain forecast for the 26-year-old Angel, one that tempered many expectations… and then he defied us all by getting off to a crazy hot start. By the end of a phenomenal May, Trumbo was sitting at .348/.396/.632, and while third base hadn’t quite worked out, his bat was reason enough for the Angels to cut Bobby Abreu and minimize Vernon Wells in order to give Trumbo regular playing time in the outfield corners. Over the next two months, the average and OBP dropped as you’d expect, but the power remained, with 17 blasts over June & July along with a place on the American League All-Star team. Read the rest of this entry »

As Eno laid it out for you yesterday, this week is dedicated to handing out some of RotoGraphs most coveted and dubious fantasy awards. For this installment we’re going to look at the American League Fantasy Hare, an honor bestowed to the AL player who came out of the gate white-hot, was a fantastic sell-high candidate, and then fizzled out in the second half. Those who sold him we’re obviously overjoyed while those who paid the steep price to own him in the second half, were left banging their heads against a wall. The title of the post gives away the winner, but let’s look a littler deeper into it and who else Mark Trumbo edged out for the honors. Read the rest of this entry »

We read the tea leaves as best we can throughout Spring Training. Playing time, roles, platoons, etc., have a significant effect on the value of players on our fantasy teams. Despite the most reliable of crystal balls, once the season starts, you finally get to the truth about how players will be used. While the numbers are obviously far too small for us to do much dissecting at this point, the actual roles of players can be telling.

As much as I doubted that Mark Trumbo would see much action at third base, the two games he’s started have both been at the hot corner and it very much seem(ed) like the team was committed to playing him there routinely. In many leagues, he will qualify at third in just three more starts there and with that eligibility, Trumbo will be far more valuable. The burning question is whether his brutal defense will allow him to ever qualify. He’s already made three errors, he was left out of Monday’s starting lineup in favor of Alberto Callaspo, and it’s not likely that he’s going to displace Vernon Wells in the outfield anytime soon. While his defense was an ongoing topic of concern throughout the Spring, it’s certainly going to be under the proverbial microscope going forward. If Mike Scioscia loses any confidence he once had in Trumbo, it might not be long before Trumbo is a part-time player and irrelevant in fantasy circles. If he can somehow stick at third, however – he’s certainly worth owning, assuming you don’t play in an OBP league.

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I didn’t expect to do another post on recent developments at third base until after the season began, but there were several relevant (some more than others) circumstances that could impact any of you doing emergency, 12th-hour drafts the day before the season begins.

I’ve written far too much about Ryan Roberts over the past six months, and part of that is probably because I have a hard time figuring out if I like him in fantasy baseball, and in what kinds of formats he might be useful, if at all. Well, it turns out that Kirk Gibson might be having the same thoughts kicking around in his skull relative to real baseball as he’s given Geoff Blum quite a bit of praise recently and failed to commit to Roberts as his every day third basemen when questioned. I have to believe that Roberts will see the majority of the time at third and maybe this is the way a former “gritty” player rewards a player with “veteran savvy” who is having a decent spring. But if you own Roberts, take notice.

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