Archive for Mark Reynolds

Tiers seem to unearth the mighty wrath of fantasy baseball enthusiasts, but since we’ve already seen the third base consensus rankings and my general reactions to them thereafter, it’s time to categorize the gentlemen at the five into tidy little compartments of descending desirability.

As you well know, the tiers are not hard and fast — they change (sometimes dramatically) over the course of the first few months of the season. In fact, there’s been movement in these tiers even before I had a chance to publish them! It’s important to remember that these are not keeper tiers — they simply attempt to arrange rough approximations of value in standard 5×5 leagues as you prepare for what might be your final draft(s).

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By the time you reach the last few rounds of your draft, your remaining options can look pretty scary.  Some people are grabbing middle relievers and potential save vultures, some people are picking up middle infield depth, and some are just stockpiling minor league players hoping that if you throw enough against the wall, something’s bound to stick.  For you, there can be another option and given the fact that we’re so far into the draft, the risk is minimal with a potentially enormous upside.  Laugh if you will, but Baltimore’s Chris Davis can make for an outstanding late round sleeper pick this year.

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As you well know by now, some dutiful readers of RotoGraphs took it upon themselves to virtually duke it out in an online mock draft, putting to test what we have repeatedly analyzed in the past several weeks — that is, just exactly where should we expect some of our favorite players to be taken?

There is of course a great deal of risk in relying solely on one source for your average draft positions, and while the draft was conducted in Mock Draft Central, having some well informed individuals making the selections instead of what could be third graders and well trained monkeys for all we know, provides us with a nice window for analysis.

For today, third base will be under the microscope.

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As the winter draws to an end and we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the Baltimore Orioles have yet to fill the role of their designated hitter, a spot left vacant when the club opted not to offer Vladimir Guerrero arbitration. 

Obviously there’s still the ability to sign a DH-type player such as Hideki Matsui, Carlos Pena or Johnny Damon, but according to Buster Olney and MLB Trade Rumors, they don’t seem too high on the idea. If that’s really the case and the Orioles fill the job in-house by using the DH-by-committee approach, then that fact coupled with the recent Nick Markakis abdominal surgery opens the door for a very interesting late round sleeper pick — Matt Angle.

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To recap the third base keeper series, we had Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria comprising the first tier, which probably could have been just one player, but nobody likes to attend the party stag. The second tier was far more crowded with Brett Lawrie, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Kevin Youkilis.

Now, perhaps Alex Rodriguez leading off the third tier is a little unfair, but we’re talking keepers here. While he’ll likely occupy a space in the second tier for fantasy drafts, his being relatively old (36) and fragile (hasn’t played a full season in four years) makes him a risky play — and considering most owners have him in high rounds or own him for big money, keeping him is may be unwise. Should you be in a very deep league and the remaining options are just downright putrid, perhaps paying the premium for his services makes some sense. If Rodriguez remains healthy all year and gives you 650 plate appearances, you can practically guarantee yourself 25 home runs and 100 RBI. But this is the fourth season of decline relative to wOBA and should that decline remain or continue either because of injury or ineffectiveness, he’s not worth the top shelf price tag.

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A great band name?  Definitely.  Especially if you’ve got a series of gigs in downtown Cincinnati.  But we’re going to stick to fantasy baseball here and talk about the fact that Drew Stubbs’ league leading 205 strikeouts (yes, that’s right, he struck out more than Mark Reynolds) may just help you land what could be one of 2012’s most valuable fantasy assets.  Sure, his 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases will keep him on most people’s radar, but the .243 average, those strikeouts, and the overall decline from 2010’s breakout season should help keep the price down and allow you to grab him at a more bargain cost.

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Just when you were getting used to the “new normal,” it normalizes on you.

A lot has been written about Mark Reynolds this year, and rightly so, as he’s had one of the more head-scratching performances of the season. Back in May, he looked like he was on a “designated for assignment” path as he was hitting 9th in the batting order and every single one of his offensive statistics were just laughable. Many people pointed to his increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts as improvement and yet the results only got worse.

In an earlier post, I observed that pitchers seemed to have changed their repertoire versus Reynolds, that he was having somewhat rotten luck on batted balls, and that he was struggling mightily versus left handed pitchers, and I’d like to revisit both charts, as well as delve into the remarkable turnaround he’s seen in the last two months.

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There’s a new development at third base as we head into the All-Star Break: optimism. Third base surely isn’t considered a deep position but there have been some recent performances that make third base not such a hold-your-nose proposition as it used to be. We have had several third basemen come off the disabled list recently as well as a number of guys sustaining performance that smelled a little fishy just a month ago. On to the rankings!

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There are a few hot hands at the hot corner worth mentioning, and for anyone without a dead team, you know that third base hasn’t exactly been the deepest position in 2011. I’m not going to take a stab at what these gentlemen may produce from here on out, leaving that to the rest-of-the-season-machines, but I wanted to shed light on a few emerging developments over at the five.

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RotoGraphs is embarking on a series of player pro/con debates in an effort to thoroughly cover players that are particularly popular in either a positive or negative way.  Today, I’ll be discussing the pros of Nationals 1B/OF Mike Morse and Eno Sarris will tackle the cons on Monday.

The title of this post actually says it all and if I wanted to just type out his batting line over the last few weeks with the phrase, “nuff said,” that would probably cover it.  But for the sake of argument, and knowing that Eno will shred me if I don’t come up with enough evidential proof as to why Mike Morse is, indeed, fantasy gold, we’ll go a little further. Read the rest of this entry »