Mike rolled out our American League Starting Pitcher Rankings on Thursday and although the ensuing debate seemed far more concerned about everyone’s favorite band, there were some names towards the bottom of the barrel worth keeping an eye on for draft day (or the wire in the case of already-drafted leagues, of course). One in particular that I’ve been tracking is Marc Rzepczynski.
If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!
Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).
PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.
The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.
Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.
Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).
Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.
Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.
That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.
The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.
Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.
Last week we talked about Felipe Lopez coming back and Brendan Ryan struggling. We recommended picking up Lopez because he would probably take the starting shortstop job. Now that he’s back, and it’s looking like that’s the case, we’re the ones looking stupid for not having followed our own advice. And yes, that’s the royal ‘we.’ On to this week’s recommendations.
Casey Blake (47% owned)
Bet you didn’t know that Casey Blake was 36 years old, did you? The fact that he debuted old (30 years old) isn’t good news for the bell curve of his career. We do know that players that debut later usually leave the league earlier, too. That seems to be the case whether that’s because players that debut later need to be closer to their peak in order to be MLB-quality, and therefore drop out earlier as they age because they fall from that peak level, or whether it’s for some other reason. Well, Blake has had a decidedly okay run, but things aren’t looking great. He’s got a six-year low in ISO and a career high in strikeout rate. It’s not luck that’s keeping him down, at least not batted-ball luck – his BABIP is .291. Instead, he’s seeing a career-low of pitches in the zone and swinging at a career high of pitches outside the zone. His contact rate is at a career low. Hmmm… why would you want to pick him up again? Well, because .260-hitting corner infielders with a little bit of power don’t just grow on trees. In certain leagues, he’ll be useful. In just such a league of mine he was dropped. Just don’t go trading your starting 3B because you picked him up is all I’m saying.
Jim Thome (5% owned)
Thome’s ownership levels are surprisingly low for a guy that’s blasted five home runs in only 75 at-bats. The good news is that he’s still his old three-true-outcome self – walking (17.6%), striking out (27.6%) and jacking dongers (.267 ISO). Though he’s also seeing a career-low pitches in the zone, the rest of his swing rate statistics are mostly in line with his career. It seems that he’s in a crowded house, but 75 at bats over 39 games is on pace for about 311 at-bats, and if he keeps hitting home runs, he’ll get more time against righties, against whom he’s done well this year (.280/.438/.600) and career (.294/.429/.614). If you have a space on your bench and can be vigilant about who is starting in Minny on a daily basis, Thome will collect you some home runs for sure.
Marc Rzepczynski (1% owned)
Maybe this is my ‘hunch,’ but Rzep/Scrabble just made his first rehab start today and might join the Jays within a week. Then again, he gave up nine runs in 2 1/3 innings in that re-hab start and Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are enough a part of the future and have shown enough this year that they should keep their jobs even when Scrabble returns. So that leaves Dana Eveland as the crux of the argument. Certainly his ERA (4.98) doesn’t argue for his inclusion in the rotation, and his secondary stats are even worse (4.15 K/9, 5.19 BB/9, 5.58 xFIP). Doesn’t seem like too much is in Scrabble’s way. As long as he can find his old groundballing (51.2% last year) and strikeout (8.8 K/9 last year) ways, he’ll be a much better solution. Hopefully the Jays will also see things this way.
Ownership numbers from Yahoo Fantasy Sports.
The 2010 season figures to be a year of transition and development for the Toronto Blue Jays. It will be year one A.H. (After Halladay), and the Jays have little chance of contending with the baseball super powers in the Bronx, Boston and Tampa.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA pegs the current Toronto roster for a last-place finish in the A.L. East, with a 72-90 record and a -91 run differential. An infusion of prospects (Brett Wallace, Kyle Drabek and Travis D’Arnaud chief among them) suggests better days may be ahead, but it will be an uphill climb to contention in a division where anything less than excellence won’t cut it.
Sans Halladay, the Blue Jays feature a youthful, lefty-laden rotation. While Marc Rzepczynski doesn’t have the draft pedigree of Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil, Toronto’s lesser-known southpaw could be a sleeper heading into the 2010 season.
A U.C. Riverside product, Rzepczynski was taken in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. The 6-1, 205 pounder missed a portion of his senior season with the Highlanders with elbow soreness, as well as a broken knuckle on his pitching hand. Baseball America liked Rzepczynski’s four-pitch mix, though, noting a tailing fastball sitting at 88-91 MPH, a low-80’s curve and slider, and an occasional changeup. While cautioning that command had always been “a major problem” for Rzepczynski, BA said he had middle-of-the-rotation potential.
The play-by-play announcer’s worst nightmare made his pro debut in the short-season New York-Penn League, where he posted rates of 9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 45.2 innings pitched. Rzepczynski waged a ground assault on less experienced batters, using his sinker to the tune of a 65.6 percent groundball rate.
Prior to 2008, Rzepczynski checked in at #21 on Baseball America’s list of Blue Jays prospects. BA praised his 87-89 MPH sinker, boring in on same-handed hitters and occasionally cracking the low-90’s. Rzepczynski also featured a hard slider and a changeup. His “long, slinging arm action” from a three-quarters arm slot added life to his pitches, though the english on those offerings came at the expense of fine touch around the corners of the plate.
In ’08, Rzepczynski spent the whole year at Lansing of the Low-A Midwest League. Marc missed April with a fractured pitching hand, but he returned to screw with A-Ball hitters as a member of the Lugnuts. He authored a 2.60 FIP in 121 IP, punching out 9.2 hitters per nine innings and issuing 3.1 BB/9. While that microscopic FIP was influenced by a very low home run rate (0.15 HR/9), it’s hard to find many faults when a hurler is whiffing over a batter per inning while inducing grounders at a 66.5% clip.
Rzepczynski jumped up to ninth on Toronto’s prospect list leading up to 2009. BA noted that he pounded the bottom of the zone with an 88-90 MPH fastball, supplementing the sinker with a sharp low-80’s slider, an average changeup and a “show-me” curveball. They did voice some concern about the disconnect between Rzepczynski K rates and his stuff: “though he got plenty of swings and misses in low Class A, Rzepczynski lacks a true out pitch.”
This past year, Rzepczynski zipped from Double-A to the majors. He began 2009 in the Eastern League, compiling a 2.64 FIP in 76.2 innings with 10.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. Rzepczynski’s stuff passed the two-level jump with flying colors, and he burned worms with a 61 GB%. After just two starts at Triple-A (11.1 IP, 16/4 K/BB), Rzepczynski reached the majors in early July.
In 11 starts and 61.1 innings with Toronto, the 24 year-old had a promising 3.70 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent ERA, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate). He struck out 8.8 hitters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 and a 51.2 percent groundball rate. Not wanting Rzepczynski to zoom past the previous year’s innings pitched total (he threw 28.1 more IP in 2009 than in ’08), the Jays shut him down in early September.
Rzepczynski tossed his 88 MPH sinker 55 percent of the time with Toronto, going to his 80 MPH slider a whopping 39 percent and sprinkling in some 82 MPH changeups (six percent). It’s difficult to glean much from such a small sample size, but Rzepczynski scuffled with the sinker (-1.05 runs per 100 pitches) while baffling batters with the slider (+2.9 runs/100).
Control was an issue during his first big league stint, as Rzepczynski located just 42 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average). His first-pitch strike percentage was just 52.1 percent (58% MLB average). Despite the high strikeout rate, Rzepczynski’s contact percentage was about league average, at 80.4 percent.
In 2010, CHONE has Rzepczynski posting a 4.05 FIP, with 8.7 K’s per nine innings and 4.4 BB/9. It’s going to be interesting to see how his punchout rates translate long-term to the majors. Despite not having the archetypal power pitcher’s arsenal, Rzepczynski has deftly avoided lumber at each level of competition. His control needs work, but this lefty’s combination of whiffs and worm burners could make him The Dude to target late on draft day.
Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Blue Jays club that finished fourth in the American League East division with a record of 75-87. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -3.08, which was 18th in the Major Leagues and ninth in the American League.
The Good: Aaron Hill, 2B
A lot of things went wrong in Toronto in 2009, but a few players had true breakout seasons, including Adam Lind, Marco Scutaro, and Hill. The second baseman was recently named Comeback Player of the Year after missing a good portion of the 2008 season thanks to a concussion, which makes his ’09 performance all the more impressive. Not even the biggest Aaron Hill fan envisioned a 36 homer, 108 RBI season occurring at any point in his career. His ISO of .213 was fifth amongst MLB second basemen, behind Ben Zobrist (.246), Ian Kinsler (.235), Chase Utley (.226), and Dan Uggla (.216). Toronto has Hill locked up through 2014 (’12-’14 are option years) and paid him just $2.6 million for a four-win season in ’09.
Hill is not likely to repeat his 30+ homer season, but he did hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in ’07. That suggests that a 20-25 homer year would not be out of the question. If he continues to hit out of the two hole in the lineup, he’s not a lock for 100 RBI… 80 would be more realistic, especially if lead-off man Scutaro leaves town.
The Bad: Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
How many teams can compete – especially in the American League East – when three members of the starting rotation are lost to serious injuries? Not many, if any, and Toronto struggled to fill the gaps. Rookies Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski each had their moments, with Rzepczynski showing the most potential for the future. Another rookie hurler, Ricky Romero, was the rotation’s second-best pitcher behind Roy Halladay and has an outside shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the AL. Marcum is expected to be back from Tommy John surgery by spring training 2010. McGowan’s timetable is fuzzy after struggling to comeback from shoulder surgery – while also dealing with subsequent nagging injuries. Litsch’s return date from Tommy John surgery looks to be mid-to-late 2010. With a new direction in the front office perhaps Toronto can figure out why its young pitchers keep getting hurt.
From a fantasy perspective, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch have little value at this point. However, all three should be monitored closely. Marcum, in particular, has a chance of putting together a string of solid starts in 2010 if his stuff bounces back to pre-surgery form. As for the ’09 rookies, Rzepczynski is an excellent sleeper candidate, especially in AL-only formats. Romero is the type of player that might attract the sophomore curse, while Cecil probably needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready to be an impact arm at the MLB level.
Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.
Tyler Colvin: You have to give a break to this former (surprise) No. 1 draft pick by the Cubs. He had a pretty lousy approach at the plate, which resulted in walk rates of 6.0% and 3.0% early on in his career. After a lousy double-A season in 2008, the organization demoted him to high-A to begin the year. Still only 23, the outfielder changed his ways to a degree and increased his walk rate to 10.4%, although he hit just .250/.326/.357 with just one homer in 112 at-bats. Colvin was rewarded with a trip back to double-A, where he is hitting .319/.342/.652 with six homers in 69 at-bats. The bad news, though, is that he’s reverted to his old ways and has a walk rate of 4.2%. Toronto’s catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should be paying attention.
Kila Ka’aihue: Despite breaking out in a big way in 2008, Ka’aihue failed to impress the Royals’ management, which went out and acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins, who is now hitting .231/.314/.431 with 10 homers in 216 at-bats. And he’s doing it for $3.5 million. Ka’aihue, on the other hand, hit 38 homers last year in the minors and has a triple-A line of .273/.417/.498 with 10 homers in 227 at-bats and could be doing that in the Majors at the league minimum. The 25-year-old first baseman has also posted an ISO above .200 for the past three years. Right now, he’s a wasted resource. As of late, you don’t hear quite as much love expressed for Royals’ GM Dayton Moore as you did this past off-season.
Chris Carter (Oakland): Another powerful first baseman, Carter (not to be confused with the one in Boston) has made a lot of improvements to his game over last year – and that’s saying a lot considering he hit 39 homers with 104 walks. Although he’s not hitting for as much power, Carter has reduced his strikeout rate, while also increasing his batting average over last year when he hit .259 in high-A. This year in double-A, he has a line of .292/.396/.496 with 11 homers and 23 doubles in 284 at-bats. The 22-year-old prospect is probably less than a year away from helping out at the MLB level.
Michael Taylor: The Phillies organization has to be ecstatic with the development that Taylor has made over the past two seasons. A good, but not great, player at Stanford University, Taylor exploded in 2008 and hit .341/.408/.553 with 19 homers combined between two A-ball affiliates. In double-A in 2009, the 6’6” 250 lbs outfielder is hitting .340/.399/.579 with 13 homers in 247 at-bats, proving last year was no fluke. He’s even stolen 11 bases in 15 attempts. The 23 year old is a bit of an unusual prospect – not unlike San Diego’s Kyle Blanks.
Jarrod Parker: Another first-round prep pitching gem from the 2007 draft, had a nice debut season in 2008. His stuff has been even crisper in 2009 and he was promoted to double-A from high-A after just four starts (0.95 ERA, 12 hits in 19 IP). At double-A, the right-hander has been a little more hittable with 51 hits allowed in 47.1 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 4.18 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.32 K/9. Only 20, Parker is holding his own at a level dominated by 23 year olds. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and improvements being made on the secondary pitches, Parker could develop into a No. 2 starter, if not a No. 1, which will be good news for the Arizona organization if ace Brandon Webb has to undergo shoulder surgery.
Marc Rzepczynski: A senior draft pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, this southpaw has improved with each minor league step he’s taken. Not only does Rzepczynski strike out his fair share of batters (almost 10.0 K/9 in his three-year career), the hurler also gets a mind-boggling number of groundball outs (career 64.6 GB%). His fastball is more like a bowling ball that can touch 92 mph and he also has a good slider and sinking (of course) changeup. With all the pitching injuries in Toronto, Rzepczynski could be up before the end of the season. His ultimate ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter.
Travis Wood: Wood is a perfect example of why you never give up on a good arm. The left-hander is a former second-round pick out of high school from 2005. He’s battled injuries and inconsistencies. Last year in 17 double-A starts, Wood posted a 7.09 ERA and allowed 91 hits and 48 walks in just 80 innings. This year, though, things have clicked again and he’s leading the minors in ERA with a 1.27 mark (2.82 FIP) in 15 starts. He’s allowed just 62 hits in 92 innings, along with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.63 K/9. Only 22, Wood has allowed just one homer this year.
Kasey Kiker: The club’s first-round selection out of high school in the 2006 draft, Kiker sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all the other great prospects in the Rangers’ system. The left-hander is having another solid year, this time in double-A, with a 3.25 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 64 hits allowed in 72 innings. He also has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. Only 5’11” 185 lbs, Kiker could eventually move to the bullpen, where his fastball has hit 95-97 mph in shorter stints.