Archive for Manny Machado

If, at this time a year ago, I had told you that between Manny Machado and Marcus Semien, one was going to finish sixth among shortstop-eligible players in 5×5 Roto value and one was going to finish 16th, there would have been no question about which player was going to rank where. But all of us (except for the most prescient) would have been wrong. Semien trailed only Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Ketel Marte and Jonathan Villar, while Machado — who played in all but six of the Padres’ games — amassed less value than either Elvis Andrus or Amed Rosario.
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In almost any way you look at it, Manny Machado’s 2017 campaign did not go well. He finished 12th out of 22 third base qualifiers in WAR and 19th out of that same group in Off rating. He ended the year with sizable decreases in just about every respect, ultimately finishing with a park-adjusted offense figure of just 102, painting him as a barely above average offensive player. That’s obviously not the Manny Machado that we’ve become accustomed to, and it’s certainly not the one that we should expect moving forward, as much of that production, or lack thereof, could be attributed to bad luck above all.

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A quick comparison between the tailspin of the Baltimore Orioles and the stat sheet of Manny Machado would seem to indicate that the third baseman is heavily responsible for the woes of the O’s over these last few months. However, the story of Machado’s 2017 isnt necessarily one of immense struggles, as his numbers might indicate, but rather one that remains something of an enigma. Despite numbers that pale in comparison to what he’s posted in two consecutive seasons of 6+ WAR, Machado hasn’t been nearly as bad as those figures might indicate.

The following represents Machado’s production over the last three years, with 387 plate appearances to his credit thus far in 2017:

His park-adjusted offense alone seems to indicate that he’s been a touch below average compared to his big league counterparts. It’s his defense almost exclusively that has him in the top ten among third basemen in WAR, given that his Off rating is just 0.2 to this point in the season, which ranks 17th out of 24 qualifying players at the position. That isolated power figure also represents a relatively significant disappointment, with Machado coming off of a year in which his power potential finally manifested itself in something statistically significant.

Interestingly enough, though, there isn’t a whole lot that should indicate Machado is as bad as his production would indicate. Obviously an average where it is and an OBP barely lingering above .300 is not representative of a player that is very likely among the top three at the hot corner. With that in mind, it’s certainly worth pondering if Machado’s 2017 is one that warrants any type of concern or can largely be attribute to bad luck more than anything. Especially considering how similar his contact trends are to his strong showing in 2016:

Obviously there’s the slight dip in his contact rate, with his whiff rate also slightly rising from 10.0 to 10.9%, but there isn’t anything outlandish that should indicate why Machado has experienced such a significant decline in overall production from one season to the next. Except that BABIP. In fact, Machado’s .253 average on balls put in play is the 13th lowest among 168 qualifying position players in Major League Baseball. With his soft and hard contact rates each trending in the ideal direction, it’s extremely difficult to account for the cause of such a startling fall in the BABIP game.

One potential explanation of where that drop comes from is where Machado has been swinging within the zone. Even if his overall swing rates and whiff rates have remained relatively constant, he has demonstrated something of a penchant for swinging at pitches on the outer part of the strike zone, something that wasn’t quite as prevalent in 2016.

Here’s his heatmap from 2016:

…Up against that of his heatmap from those almost 400 plate appearances to this point in 2017, which demonstrate the trend previously discussed:

This is significant because Machado has put the ball on the ground far more this year than he did in 2016, with a 43.2 GB% against a 37.6 mark from last year. It likely cannot be attributed as entire source of his woes, but such a rise in groundballs, in conjunction with a pull percentage that is actually higher (44.0% 41.9%) likely serves as some foray into the woes that Machado has experienced, at least to an extent. Trying to swing at those outside pitches and maintaining such a high pull rate is likely leading to some semblance of rolling over, hence the increase in groundballs.

The good news is that there are two encouraging things related to Machado’s output. For one, if this is, in fact, the source of at least some of his statistical shortcomings this year, it would appear to be an easy fix. Approach and zone awareness are far less concerning than if Machado were experiencing some sort of mechanical flaw that developed over the offseason. So perhaps we see an adjustment from Machado moving forward to get that GB rate back down and get back to the linedrive ways that he demonstrated last year.

Additionally, Machado has been far better in the month of July than he had been in the previous months. After months in which he hit .224, .191, and .242, Machado is off to a .351 start in July, through 62 plate appearances in the month. He’s putting the ball on the ground just a touch less, at a rate of about 40%. Perhaps more importantly, though, his BABIP for the month is sitting at .378.

And that’s more reflective of the type of output we should expect from Manny Machado moving forward. While he’s never been an extremely high BABIP guy, he isn’t doing anything that should indicate his BABIP, or overall production, should be as low as it is. Things tend to even out over time, and assuming Machado continues to make the type of contact that he is and perhaps get the ball on a line with any more regularity, there doesn’t appear to be any reason to be legitimately concerned about Machado moving forward in 2017.

It’s that wonderful time of year where preliminary positional rankings starting pouring out for the upcoming season. Because I needed another reason to look like a fool by the end of it. The third base position opens 2017 with plenty of intrigue, with a couple of newish faces to the mix and one notable name departing for a new position. Let’s all pour one out for Matt Carpenter. My goal is to be far more consistent on the rankings side in 2017, which means more opportunity for folks to ponder, “Just what in the world is this guy thinking?”

Let’s get to it with some cleverly named tiers:

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Okay, obviously the headline there is something that has become easily perceivable anytime anyone has watched Manny Machado pick up a bat in the last calendar year or so. One of the more prominent players at the third base position in a number of ways (again, I’m dealing in obvious statements here), one of the elements that folks were watching for early in his career was for that power to develop. Primarily a gap hitter early in his career, with 51 doubles during the 2013 season, it was only a matter of time before balls started leaving the yard. Here we are into Machado’s second completely healthy season in the last three years and that early expectation of more power has absolutely come to fruition.

In his first full season, back in 2013, Machado posted an ISO of just .148. The “just” qualifier is present only because of where he finds himself now. But he found the seats only 14 times across 700+ plate appearances. The 2014 campaign wasn’t completely a wash, but he was limited to appearances in 82 games because of injury. His ISO over that significantly smaller span came in slightly higher, at .153. But last year saw him break out in the power game.

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We haven’t done a good ol’ fashioned rankings since the start of the season, so the All-Star Break seems like the perfect time to re-examine some of the selections that were made in the initial 2016 set. Obviously things have changed, but given that it’s the middle of July, nobody is surprising us anymore. We know largely who is who and what they bring to the table, while others have dropped off due to positional eligibility. While there’s still room for bounce back or decline, we know where we stand at the season’s midway point.

While these rankings still remain somewhat subjective, based on the individual elements I tend to look at, neither Kris Bryant or Jake Lamb ended up no. 1, so the bias may not have shone through as much as it otherwise could have. Enjoy the rest of your break before the stove starts to heat up.

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As we approach the end of the first month of the 2016 Major League season, there’s obviously plenty to dissect. From a third base perspective, we’ll unpack a lot of that when we get to the first set of real, actual, less-leaning-upon-conjecture rankings in the coming days. But nothing says we can’t look at some things just a touch early.

For the most part, the top guys have been the top guys. If there was a “Stock Right Where It Was Expected to Be” category, these guys would fit the bill. Manny Machado leads the category, while Nolan Arenado and Josh Donaldson aren’t too far behind. Kris Bryant is right in the mix as well, keeping all of the top tier players from those initial rankings in that upper tier, just perhaps with some reordering. Beyond that top tier, though, there’s certainly going to be some shakeup. Some guys have emerged, some guys have fallen off the map almost completely, and some guys are just there. Looking at some of these stocks will give us a better idea of what the next set of rankings could look like.

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On Monday I looked at bust candidates according to the 2015 Steamer projections. I ran the projections through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and then compared the rankings at each position to early ADP data from NFBC drafts. Today we’ll look at a sleeper candidate from each position. Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore infield gave us quite a few fantasy relevant options last year. They had a player finish inside the top 12 at every position other than second base, and Chris Davis emerged as a complete stud. Their four fantasy relevant guys will return to their positions, but there are some questions about whether they’ll be able to repeat their value from last year.

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It’s a pretty exciting time for both baseball fans and fantasy players right now, isn’t it? Rosters don’t expand until September and yet we’re still seeing a slew of prospects getting called up and being handed regular playing time. The baseball fan in me loves seeing the next generation of superstars ushering in a new era while the fantasy player in me gets a nice inundation of fresh blood into the player pool, ready to be scooped up from the waiver wire and put to work as I push my way towards another fantasy championship. It’s win win, right?

Wrong.

Not everyone is totally jazzed up about some hot-shot rookie getting called up and handed an immediate starting role. Much like the debate in this country about immigrants coming in and taking jobs away from struggling, unemployed Americans, there are several in the baseball world that have a dissenting opinion here. Those veteran players who end up riding the pine as well as their fantasy owners are not a happy group of campers.

When Anthony Rizzo was summoned from Iowa to play first base for the Cubs, both Bryan LaHair and his owners were reassured that there would be no loss of playing time. He would move to right field, get his usual number of at-bats, and there was even the bonus of additional position eligibility. Forget about the fact that he was already sitting against most lefties and the handwriting was on the wall; his job was still supposedly safe.

But with the Cubs out of the playoff race, they decided to go and summon Brett Jackson, a highly touted outfielder in their system who, despite batting just .256 for the year in Triple-A was now being given a substantial opportunity to prove his worth on the major league level. But at whose expense? Yup. That’s right. We’re sorry Mr. LaHair, but we have no available table for you at this time. With Rizzo locking down first base, Jackson taking over center field and both David DeJesus and Joe Mather looking like better defensive options, LaHair’s time as a starter has come to a close and those fantasy owners that were still relying on him are now left to scour the waiver wire in search of a new hitter.

And it’s not just happening on teams that are already looking towards 2013. As the Orioles sit atop the wild card standings, they finally told a struggling Mark Reynolds, and those fantasy owners in deeper leagues still forced to use him, that his time was up when they promoted Manny Machado from Double-A on Thursday morning. They even switched the kid’s position in order to boot Reynolds from the starting lineup. It might not be happening all at once, but with the depth the Orioles have now in left field, first base and at DH, Machado occupying third now is pushing Reynolds further and further out the door.

Now obviously fantasy owners should be prepared for this type of thing. It’s something that happens virtually every year. But when you’re playing in deeper leagues and the player pool is scant with talent, these situations can be tough to avoid. It’s great to see new, young talent shine on the big stage, but when they’re stealing the spotlight from one of your guys, it becomes real difficult to appreciate.