2016 MLB Third Base Tiered Rankings: All-Star Break Edition

We haven’t done a good ol’ fashioned rankings since the start of the season, so the All-Star Break seems like the perfect time to re-examine some of the selections that were made in the initial 2016 set. Obviously things have changed, but given that it’s the middle of July, nobody is surprising us anymore. We know largely who is who and what they bring to the table, while others have dropped off due to positional eligibility. While there’s still room for bounce back or decline, we know where we stand at the season’s midway point.

While these rankings still remain somewhat subjective, based on the individual elements I tend to look at, neither Kris Bryant or Jake Lamb ended up no. 1, so the bias may not have shone through as much as it otherwise could have. Enjoy the rest of your break before the stove starts to heat up.

Tier 1 – The Elite

Josh Donaldson

Kris Bryant

Manny Machado

Nolan Arenado

Matt Carpenter

This was our group before the season began, and at that point, there really wasn’t an incorrect order in which to put them. That is still the case, as each is having a stellar season in his own right. Josh Donaldson is still the best offensive third basemen on the planet. His Off rating, serving as something of a summation of his offensive exploits, is at 33.6 for the year, easily no. 1 among the group. He hits for power, he hits for average, he hits the ball just about as hard as anyone playing the position (42.6% Hard% is no. 2 among 3B).

If anything, Bryant has completely solidified his spot at no. 2 which I presented him with in the preseason rankings. He’s still striking out at a rate over 20%, but it’s completely compensated for in an 11+% walk rate, 25 home runs, and an on-base percentage over .380 that trails only Donaldson and Matt Carpenter among the third sackers. His ascent is thanks, in part, to his leveled-out swing, which has led to more consistent contact and less punchouts.

Everyone tends to make a scene about Arenado’s performance away from Coors, which seems a perfectly reasonable concern. He does have 11 home runs on the road compared to an even dozen at home, but his ISO takes a significant dip, from .331 in home games to a still-respectable-but-sharply-declined .233 in games out on the road, while his OBP drops almost 60 points from the .385 mark that he’s posted at home.

Carpenter is a newcomer to the group, but it was too hard to keep him out of the fantasy elite. He’s having a stellar year (or was before his recent injury) and leads third basemen with a 44.5% hard hit rate, while reaching base at a .420 clip that also leads the position. His ISO, at .270, ranks fifth, and he’s walking at an impressive 16.5% rate. Really the only reason that he trails these guys so significantly in the WAR game is because of his negative defensive value, which we’re not really concerned with from this perspective.

Tier 2 – The Whatever-Comes-After-Elite

Jake Lamb

Evan Longoria

Kyle Seager

This group has shrunk significantly since the initial season rankings. Lamb has been a pleasant surprise for the disappointing Arizona Diamondbacks, and it’s a bandwagon I’ve been on virtually (and probably actually driving) since the start of the season (and, boy, have I made that known). Like Bryant, he also tinkered with his swing, which has led to more contact and more power. His .322 ISO leads all third basemen, while his .983 OPS trails only Donaldson and Carpenter.

Longoria would probably be getting more attention for what has been an extremely impressive season if the Tampa Bay Rays weren’t so terrible. Seager has done everything well, hitting for average (.287), power (.251 ISO), and reaching base at a cool rate of .365. He’s just getting overshadowed by his brother.

Tier 3 – The Good

Adrian Beltre

Anthony Rendon

Justin Turner

This group probably could have been named the “You Know Exactly What You’re Getting From Them” tier. Steady, if unspectacular, really helps to sum up this trio. There’s not a lot of power coming from this group, as illustrated by ISO figures of .161, .152, and .189, respectively. But they’re all getting on base at over a mark of .330. Turner is intriguing because his battle with BABIP has become rather significant this year (.268). If he can fight that off, it’ll be interesting to see if he can rise up a tier.

Tier 4 – The Guys Who Lack Name Recognition, But Have Been Solid

Nick Castellanos

Martin Prado

Eduardo Nunez

Travis Shaw

Jose Ramirez

Coming into the season, many people were hoping that we were finally seeing that breakout campaign from Nick Castellanos. To an extent, that has happened. He has a better ISO than almost anyone you’ll find in the bottom half of the third base group and has a nice .342 OBP thanks, in part, to a Hard% up over 37%, which ranks 11th at the position. The issue is that he’s still striking out quite a bit (24.3%) and walking very little (5.6%). Like Turner, he’s a guy in this group who could definitely rise into the next one before the next rankings drop.

Prado gets on base a ton, with a .373 OBP on a quietly good Miami Marlins team, but isn’t really intriguing in any other way. There isn’t a speed element that could help to compensate for the lack of power in the fantasy game. Ramirez represents an almost identical entity: high OBP, not much of anything else. Travis Shaw has tailed off since a hot start, something we were all sure was coming.

Tier 5 – The Veterans and Maikel Franco

Todd Frazier

Luis Valbuena

David Freese

Chase Headley

Maikel Franco

I couldn’t, in good conscience, put Frazier in the tiers above this, even if he does have 25 home runs to his name. He’s hitting only .213 and is reaching base at a rate that’s clinging to life above .300. The bulk of that can be attribute to a paltry BABIP of just .202. There’s a lot going on there, though, so he may be a topic of conversation for us next week.

Valbuena strikes out a bunch, walks a ton, and . He might actually be the most intriguing player out of this group because of his versatility and the fact that he provides some power at the position. Freese has been steady with Pittsburgh, reaching base at a rate over .370 and providing some pop. Headley reaches base quite a bit, with less pop. Maikel Franco has been a disappointment, but was off to a good start in July after poor months of May and June. He’s my guy to watch in the bottom half of these rankings moving forward.

Tier 6 – The Largely Disappointing

Matt Duffy

Aaron Hill

Eugenio Suarez

Yunel Escobar

If you’re employing these guys, you’re either desperate and injury-ravaged, or in an extremely deep league where you cashed in at other positions. I had hope for Duffy early in the season, but he’s actually brought negative value as far as his offense is concerned. Hill, Escobar, and Suarez are just kind of there at this point.