Archive for Kyle Blanks

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Exciting, nail-biting position battles for the Giants are nowhere to be found. Buster Posey is the starter behind the plate, and working around the horn from first base to third base, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy will fill out the starting spots in the infield. Prior to signing Denard Span in early January, an intriguing starting battle could have been in the cards in the outfield, alas, the starting spots are sewn up out there, too. Span will slot in center field, Angel Pagan will man left field and Hunter Pence will handle right field duties. The lineup battles for the Giants are reserved for, um, the reserves. Standard mixed-leaguers are unlikely to garner much value from this piece, but large mixed-league gamers and NL-only gamers might find some names to file away for watch lists. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s nothing like the threat of being sent down to light a fire under a player, and while Kyle Blanks had started his climb out of the depths before he was given his reprieve, Yonder Alonso’s broken hand may yet prove to be the turning point in Blanks’ season.

Simply put, Blanks doesn’t hit well when he doesn’t start. So far this season, Blanks has come into the game as a sub in 12 of the 41 games he has played in. In those 12 games, Blanks has hit .182/.250/.273 without a single home run or even an RBI; if he isn’t in the starting line up, he isn’t providing any type of fantasy value. If he does start, Blanks hits .311/.395/.538 with all six of his home runs, 21 RBI, and a stolen base for good measure, and this is where Alonso’s injury comes into play. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re down to about the last seven weeks of regular season baseball and entering into a period where managers start to tweak their teams in reaction to categorical standings (thinking rotisserie style, that is). Due to any combination of injury, ineffectiveness, or incompetence, you may be looking for a little lightning in a bottle off the waiver wire to boost a category here or there. What follows are more deeper-league options, but a couple of these guys even might provide value in standard league formats depending on where you need a shot in the arm.

Read the rest of this entry »

At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, Kyle Blanks looks like he would be more comfortable protecting Philip Rivers’ blind side than patrolling the outfield at Petco Park.

The right-handed hitting behemoth has a bat that’s big league ready, but his future position in San Diego depends upon whether Adrian Gonzalez (owed just $4.75 million in 2010, with a “duuuh” $5.5M option for 2011) remains Padres property. Blanks appeared in the outfield in just two rookie ball games prior to 2009. But he saw time in the outfield corners this past year in an effort to get his lumber in the same lineup as Gonzalez.

A 42nd round pick in the 2004 draft, Blanks was a draft-and-follow selection who eventually inked for $260,000. Scouts got few looks at him during his prep career in New Mexico, but the Padres were impressed with his work at Yavapai Junior College in Arizona.

Blanks wasted no time in showcasing his intriguing blend of patience, power and contact ability. In 200 plate appearances in the rookie level Arizona League in 2005, he hit .299/.420/.500. Baseball America said that Blanks had the best power in the organization, but also cautioned that “his approach at the plate is single minded-every swing is designed to hit the ball a mile.”

In 2006, Blanks batted .292/.382/.455 in 359 PA in the Low-A Midwest League. He drew a walk in 10 percent of his plate appearances, while punching out 22 percent of the time. Unfortunately, a leg infection ended his season in July. During the lay-off, Blanks ballooned to nearly 300 pounds. Baseball America dropped him from the 15th-best prospect in the Padres’ system to 29th, claiming that he needed “a big power year in high Class-A to re-establish himself as a prospect.”

Blanks did indeed turn in a big power year in 2007, with a 24 home runs and a .301/.380/.540 line in the High-A California League. Taking 531 trips to the plate, he walked 8.3 percent and improved his K rate to 18.5 percent. Blanks’ ISO soared from .163 in ’06 to .239 in ’07.

The Cal League’s Southern Division does feature some of the best hitter’s parks in the minors, but Lake Elsinore didn’t inflate offense. BA bumped Blanks up to 10th in the Padres’ system, ascribing some of that extra power to “adding a stride” to his swing “instead of just turning and rotating.”

Spending the 2008 season in the Double-A Texas League, Blanks bashed to the tune of .325/.404/.514 in 565 PA. A near-.370 BABIP helps to explain the batting average spike, but Blanks maintained most of his pop (.189 ISO) while taking ball four 9.4% and punching out 18.3%.

Having proved himself at the upper levels, Blanks jumped up to number one on San Diego’s prospect list prior to the 2009 season. He had slimmed down to 280 bills, and BA liked that fact that he “exhibit[ed] strong bat control instead of always selling out for power.” However, they also noted that such an approach cut into his ability to drive the ball at times. Blanks had a “tendency to hit with dead hands” because there’s “minimal load to his swing.”

At Triple-A Portland in 2009, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 in 280 PA. His whiff rate climbed in the Pacific Coast League (27 percent), but Blanks’ secondary skills shined (14.3 BB%, .202 ISO).

He hit the ground running in San Diego as well, with a .250/.355/.514 line and a 138 wRC+ in 172 plate appearances. It’s unwise to infer too much from such a small sample, but Blanks hit 10 homers with a .264 ISO. He drew a walk 10.8 percent of the time, though he punched out 37.2 percent. Unfortunately, a right foot injury in late August ended his season early.

So, what should we expect from the 23 year-old Blanks in 2010? He’s currently penciled in as San Diego’s starting right fielder. Petco will do its best to sabotage his offense, as the park has depressed run scoring by 24 percent and homers by 27 percent compared to a neutral venue from 2007-2009. Even so, CHONE (which takes park effects into account) projects a .265/.353/.459 line next season, with a 119 wRC+.

It’s frustrating that Blanks will reside in such power and run-sapping environs, but he has the offensive skills to merit fantasy interest regardless. The only question is what position he’ll play.

We checked out right field this week and found that once again the outfield provides serious value late in the rankings. Jermaine Dye, the fourteenth-ranked outfielder in those rankings, is a good bet for close to 30 home runs and a decent batting average next year. But let’s take a look at some of the guys that will be fringe picks in most mixed leagues. They’ll be relevant in most leagues.

J.D. Drew got some love from Big Oil in the comments, and rightly so. At first glance, he had an almost exactly average JD Drew season last year. His wOBA (.389 in 2009, .386 career), BABIP (.320 last year, .321 career), OPS (.914 last year, .896 career), O-Swing % (15.3% in 2009, 15.8% career) and walk rate (15.4% in 2009, 14.7% career) are all eerily close to his career averages. So if it wasn’t a lucky year, he should be a lock for a .280 average and 20+ home runs in 500 plate appearances – and therefore a boon to players that can change their lineups daily.

That is not to say that Drew is without his own asterisks. There’s always the health question with him, as he’s averaged only 480 plate appearances a year for his entire career. Last year, his speed score dropped dramatically, from 5.2 in 2008 (5 is average) down to 3.7. Bill James seems to think the drop is a harbinger for a lower BABIP and a lower batting average in 2010 and projects a batting average about ten points lower than the fans do. Looking at Drew’s batted ball profile – he’s hitting more fly balls every season – it does seem to follow that he’s hitting more like a prototypical slugger as he ages. It’s possible his batting average drops next year, but with a five-year high in ISO in 2009, it’s possible that he makes up for the missing hits with a little extra power.

Kyle Blanks is an all-or-nothing hitter that hits like a prototypical slugger already. The Shaq-like (285 pounds!), afro-sporting behemoth of a first baseman will be manning the outfield (poorly), striking out (37.2% in 2009), and punishing the ball for the Padres next year (.264 ISO). The good news is that he should be able to improve that strikeout rate considering his 22.3% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues. If he can get that rate under 30%, he should be able to bring the batting average to a respectable level so that his fantasy owners can enjoy his power without pummeling their batting average.

A lot has been written about Alex Rios over the past year, and he’s certainly a lightning rod for discussion. Because he’s once hit 24 home runs and stolen 32 bases in his career, he’s been saddled with some unreasonable projections that had him challenging for .300/30/30 numbers. He’s just not that kind of player, though, as his groundball percentage (42.8%) is just too high for him to produce real power. On the other hand, the speed is real (76.9% career success rate) and by all accounts he had an unlucky year last year (.277 BABIP in 2009, .321 xBABIP in 2009, .323 BABIP career). If you revise those old predictions to a more realistic .280/20/20, you’ll likely find yourself pleased at years-end.

Elijah Dukes deserves a mention despite the fact that his speed is not currently playing at the major league level (50% success rate) and he just can’t stay healthy. But some year he just might stay healthy, and if you prorate Bill James’ projections for him to 500 at-bats, you’re looking at a .263/17/13 player that will probably cost you very little. He’s periodically shown ISOs over .200, and the James projection only has him at .176 in that department, so there’s even a sliver of upside in those power numbers.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Hammel (30%) – Hammel’s overall numbers do not suggest a pitcher who is a worthwhile fantasy option. But this is the classic case of a pitcher to plug into the lineup depending on circumstances and as you might guess for a Rockies pitcher, activate him when he is on the road. This year in home starts, Hammel has 2 W, 7.02 ERA, 35 Ks and a 1.920 WHIP. Meanwhile, away from Coors Field, he has 6 W, 2.88 ERA, 52 Ks and a 1.227 WHIP.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Kyle Blanks (24%) – Power is one of the hardest things to find on the waiver wire so it is refreshing to see someone who is in the lineup virtually on a full-time basis who carries a .247 ISO. Since the All-Star break, Blanks has a .284/.392/.608 slash line in 120 PA. He has 9 HR, 17 RBI and 20 R in 35 games (28 starts) in the second half.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Lastings Milledge (19%) – In a very small sample of 83 PA, Milledge has been decent since returning to the majors with the Pirates. And those numbers would be better if they did not include a 1-for-15 trip to the Windy City. Milledge can hit a few HR and notch a few SB down the stretch and not kill you in AVG. He is an everyday outfielder on the waiver wire with some upside.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Luis Valbuena (3 %) – In the second half of the season, Valbuena has a .298/.365/.521 line in 104 PA. He has 13 RBIs and 17 R in that span, which covers 27 games (25 starts). Currently, Valbuena is riding a 7-game hitting streak and he has 3 HR in that stretch. The 23-year old hails from Venezuela and was acquired by the Indians from the Mariners in the three-team trade this past winter. In the deal Cleveland also picked up Joe Smith from the Mets and dealt away Franklin Gutierrez.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Rajai Davis (47%) – He has very little power but Davis is a big-time SB threat who hits for a good AVG. Since settling in as the A’s starting center fielder, Davis has a .344 AVG with 16 RBIs, 17 R and 14 SB in his last 25 games. For the year he has a .344 BABIP but he also has a 21.1 percent LD rate. The Dutton/Carty xBABIP Quick Calculator gives him an xBABIP of .319 for the season.

It’s always exciting when an organization promotes its top prospect, and that’s just what has happened in San Diego with the promotion of LF/1B Kyle Blanks. However, enthusiasm should be tempered for the 6’6” 280 lbs rookie, whose raw power will be muted by his home ballpark.

Yes, he’s probably almost ready for the Majors from an offensive standpoint. This season, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 with 12 homers in 233 at-bats at triple-A. He did, though, see his strikeout rate increase from 18.3 K% to 27.0 K% over the past year. Blanks’ walk rate rose five percent. His track record is good throughout his minor league career. He drove in more than 100 runs in both 2007 and 2008 and hit more than .300 in each of those seasons. Blanks’ career line is .304/.393/.505 in parts of five minor league seasons.

Defensively at his new position of left field, Blanks makes other questionable fielding converts like Matt LaPorta and Brett Wallace look like Adam Everett or Elvis Andrus. His range is… limited, to be kind. At first base, though, he actually shows good athleticism for a player his size and actually has the potential for some above-average defense.

Unfortunately, the presence of Adrian Gonzalez at first base makes it highly unlikely that Blanks, 22, will play regularly at the position any time soon. However, given how much Gonzalez’ value has risen this season – and given the utter hopelessness of the big-league club – San Diego would probably be smart to listen to offers for the incumbent’s services. And that may very well be why he has been promoted to the big-league club with just a month to go before the trading deadline.

Overall, Blanks is worth keeping an eye, but don’t expect much fantasy baseball value from him in 2009. Like Gonzalez, his offense will be much more potent on the road than it will be at home in San Diego.

An already-thin position took a hit this week with Aramis Ramirez hitting the DL with a separated shoulder. With the prognosis leaving him out for at least a month, owners are hitting the waiver wire in search of some short-term Maalox.

Let’s take a look at some of the possible short-term patches. Not all of them will soothe equally.

Adrian Beltre – Don’t think that Beltre is done just because it seems like he’s been around forever. You may be surprised to learn that he is only 30 years old. Possibly because of an oscillating line drive percentage (19% career, 15% currently), Beltre doesn’t own a great career BABIP (.291). That said, he’s current .260 number is unsustainable, and even if he ‘only’ pushes that number up to last year’s .279 level, the average will climb shortly. Perhaps it would help him center the ball if he quit swinging at more than 40% of balls outside the strike zone. Get that back to regular 30% levels and the line drive rate, BABIP, and average should all follow.

Mike Fontenot – How about A-Ram’s real-life replacement? Newly-acquired Ryan Freel and Fontenot will split up the at-bats at the hot corner for the Cubs, and both are decent players. While Freel is more of a speedy player, Fontenot actually has some nice pop. He’s hitting over 40% fly balls, and his double-digit HR/FB percentage (15.6%) looks sustainable when seen against last year’s totals. There are some black marks against the diminutive (5’ 8”, 170 lbs) infielder, however. His 10% line drive rate means that his .250 BABIP won’t necessarily move on it’s own accord. Since most of his contact, walk and strikeout percentages have been steady, it’s just a difficulty making solid contact that’s keeping Fontenot from being the best fantasy and real-life replacement.

Casey Blake – While Beltre is younger than most may think, Blake is older than most would guess. At 35 years old, his bat may also be slowing down. His contact rates are down across the board, and his current line drive rate (16%) is the worst of his career. He’s never had great batting averages, and calling the cavernous Dodger Stadium home (.857 park factor for home runs in 2008) doesn’t make him any more attractive.

Chase Headley – There’s some news in Padre-land, and it’s important to their third-base situation. Huge first-base prospect Kyle Blanks (6’ 6”, 270 lbs) is taking fly balls in left field, meaning that the team is at least considering pushing Headley back to third, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to a reserve role. The good news about Headley is that he’s cut down his strikeouts and is swinging less at balls outside the zone. There’s no number that leaps out and says that he’s been unlucky, but if he continues his natural progression and walks more like he did in the minors, he still has major upside.

Scott Rolen – Rolen may actually be the best short-term replacement for Aramis Ramirez. His BABIP is a tick high (.326) and his fly ball percentage a tick low (38.5%), but the best news is that he feels healthy and his lineup is providing him many ducks on the pond. The biggest worry, his 32% line drive rate, can’t be seen as too much of a negative. Sure, it’s a little high, but at least he’s seeing the ball well. As the line drive rate comes down, perhaps the fly ball rate will increase. Either way, he’s a solid run-producer that should put up the best batting average of the possible replacements.