Archive for Khris Davis

I swore when I started at RotoGraphs that I’d never write any self-serving articles about my fantasy teams. But I also swore that I’d start bringing in lunch to work, that I’d never pay more than $10 for a bottle of beer, or force my child to root for the A’s while growing up in Seattle. Today, I’m having pho for lunch after paying an unpalatable amount yesterday for a merely palatable beer. And this is my one-year old son’s room.

But 2016 marked my first foray into the world of Ottoneu and, as such, this is my first Ottoneu off-season. Admittedly, a little intimated after a decade of playing only roto and head-to-head leagues on the standard sites, a few friends of mine took the plunge and created an Ottoneu 4×4 league. I can’t really tell you why we decided to go roto instead of the full FanGraphs points experience but it doesn’t really matter. I’m hooked. So, when the opportunity came to adopt a second team, this time in the FanGraphs Staff Two league, I jumped at it. And I’ve got some work to do.

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On Friday, Adam McFadden wrote a piece in which he recommended nine players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Adam’s work inspired me to do some digging of my own, and I managed to find some more widely unowned players who could give your team a serious boost down the stretch.

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He’s Back!

Drew Smyly (47%) – Although he looked pretty rusty in his first start since May on Sunday, Smyly needs to be owned pretty much across the board. He was dropped in a ton of leagues when he tore his labrum, to the point where he’s available in over half of Yahoo leagues. Dropping him was understandable, as the Rays initially said he was out for the year, only to retract that statement a week later.

I managed to snag him in a 12-team mixer where he had gone unnoticed on the waiver wire. Maybe you can too.

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It has begun! May your leagues bring you much joy. What follows is one approach to auctions that should bring you future joy.

I participated in two auction drafts. In both, I decided to spend little on pitching. In The Fake Baseball’s Friends and Family League (TFBFFL), I spent almost the minimum on our (co-own the free team with Zach Sanders) rotation and bench. I spent $16.00 on 12 pitchers ($2 max), but the results were not horrible: Drew Hutchison, Homer Bailey, Carlos Martinez, Henderson Alvarez, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Sean Doolittle, Carlos Rodon and Rafael Montero. I dropped Chad Qualls already for Zach McAllister. We have enough bats to upgrade.

In my next auction, I wanted two better pitchers, but I still gave myself a $40 cap. I wound up spending $45 on the following:

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You have seen some Tout and LABR reviews for the past few weeks here on the site. We all can’t be so lucky to participate in such glorious leagues. On the other hand, we can all take part in NFBC leagues.

NFBC’s $150 NFBC Draft Champions leagues are a perfect format for me:

a) I have impending time constraints including my first child in June!

b) I didn’t have to ask my wife for permission to use our mutual bank account.

c) I was able to dwell on each pick if/when needed (8 hours to make a pick) and

d) There are no trades or free agent pick-ups once the draft is complete. This feature is my wife’s favorite, and I appreciate the preventative collusion measures. I am also much more interested in draft strategy and player projections/rankings/draft position than I am jumping on small sample sizes in-season.

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The Milwaukee Brewers’ outfield is home to a pair of highly sought outfielders in fantasy baseball leagues. Khris Davis, after a .279/.353/.596 showing in 153 plate appearances in 2013, was the clear favorite to hold down the third spot coming into the 2014 campaign. He was a pretty popular sleeper (among outfielders, ADP: 46^th, RotoGraphs consensus rank: 43^rd) as well.

For the most part, he didn’t disappoint. Davis finished 40^th among outfielders in money earned thanks to his .244/.299/.457 slash line, with 22 home runs and four stolen bases, in 549 PAs. Fantasy owners, especially those in OBP leagues who probably took a bit of a loss, might have hoped for a little more, but the left fielder’s traditional rotisserie production was a clear win, even if it wasn’t much of one.

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Yes, I’m late to the Bold Predictions party. What else is new? I’m going to be late for my own funeral, guaranteed.

Anyway, last year’s bold predictions didn’t fare entirely well, as discussed here, but the author feels that .400 is within the realm of possibility this time around.

10. Khris Davis will hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases.
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As with the vast majority of the Brewers’ roster, their outfield presents few question marks in terms of roster construction. Ryan Braun will transition to right field after the organization shipped Norichika Aoki to Kansas City to clear room for 26-year-old Khris Davis, who took the NL Central by storm with a .406 wOBA in his brief major-league debut last season.

Braun and Davis will anchor the corners, while Carlos Gomez projects to roam center field once again — a year after his breakout +7.6 WAR season in which he hit .284/.338/.506 with 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Such a tremendous season helped catapult Gomez into elite fantasy-status. He was the sixth-best fantasy outfielder in 2013, according to Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings.

The Brewers should have Logan Schafer on the bench once again, providing a left-handed bat off the bench and above-average defense at any of the three outfield positions. He hit .211/.279/.322 last season, and while he’s certainly a better hitter than those numbers suggest, he doesn’t project to be relevant in any leagues, due to both a lack of playing time and a lack of impact tools with the bat.

The fifth outfielder role isn’t set in stone, but Caleb Gindl will stroll into camp this month with the inside track. His overall .242 batting average won’t impress anyone. However, his 12.9% walk rate and .197 ISO helped compensate for the low batting average, likely impacted by his low BABIP in such a small sample size, and suggest he could be a solid bench bat. And if Khris Davis proves to be nothing more than a platoon guy in left field, Gindl could become a useful platoon partner at the league minimum.

But before we dig our teeth into Khris Davis and Carlos Gomez, the elephant in the room must be addressed. What should fantasy owners expect from Ryan Braun next season?

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The Milwaukee Brewers suffered through a season they’d like to forget in many ways. The club finished 14 games under .500 and trudged through the media firestorm that was the Ryan Braun suspension. Furthermore, Yovani Gallardo took a significant step backward, Corey Hart missed the entire season, Aramis Ramirez battled through a knee injury and Rickie Weeks was borderline unplayable prior to his season-ending injury.

For fantasy owners, however, the Brewers season had several bright spots. Jean Segura was the best shortstop in baseball, Carlos Gomez enjoyed a breakout year and Scooter Gennett showed flashes late in the season. Often overlooked, though, is the fact that Khris Davis established himself as a sleeper candidate, and even displayed some skills that could make him an impact outfielder if they carry over into 2014.

He launched 11 home runs in only 153 plate appearances, and he finished the season with an impressive .406 wOBA. If you’re looking for a single number, his lofty .316 ISO illustrates the impressive power display in August and September. It’s not really fair to do this because of the small sample size, but his .316 ISO ranked second in Major League Baseball (min. 100 PA) behind only his near-namesake Chris Davis.

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This is it. We’re getting real close to the end here. August is nearly finished and then we’re into the home stretch. The waiver wire will start to fill up a little more once we hit September and MLB rosters expand, but for right now it’s a matter of sifting through the rubble and seeing if there’s anyone out there who can help you in some way. There’s really no more time to sit and wait for someone to turn things around. They’re either producing or they’re not and if they aren’t, you need to make a switch fast. Time is running out. Maybe these two can be of some help… Read the rest of this entry »