Archive for Kevin Slowey

In standard drafts, the late round flyers are some of my favorite picks because on the one hand they “cost” you extremely little and on the other, there’s always the chance that you’ve picked up a gem on the cheap. Position battles are perfect spots to look for hidden value because many managers aren’t willing to float a pick for someone without a regular gig. With that in mind, there are a few starting pitching battles which might actually feature arms worth rostering.

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Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Kevin Slowey
LAD – Vicente Padilla
CIN – Aaron Harang
STL – Kyle Lohse

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

TEX – Cliff Lee
MIN – Francisco Liriano
SDP – Wade LeBlanc
FLA – Chris Volstad
BAL – Jake Arrieta
PIT – Jeff Karstens
CLV – Carlos Carrasco
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

In his last five games, Slowey has four Quality Starts and is 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He has a good chance to keep up his strong pitching with a home game against the Royals and a road game in Cleveland.

Padilla has been on the disabled list with a bulging disk in his neck and has also been slowed by a contusion in his left leg. But he is scheduled to return to the mound Monday against the Padres and Mat Latos. Padilla has a second road start on tap Saturday in Houston versus Wandy Rodriguez.

Harang made his first start of the second half last Tuesday after missing time due to a lower back strain. Harang threw 91 pitches in four innings in his first outing back and allowed eight hits. He starts in Colorado versus Ubaldo Jimenez before having a home start against the Pirates this week.

In three starts since returning from forearm surgery, Lohse is 1-2 with an 11.48 ERA. He has allowed 4 HR in 13.1 IP. Lohse’s first start this week is Tuesday in Milwaukee, which is the fifth easiest park to hit a homer in this season, according to the ESPN Park Factors. His second start also comes on the road, this time in Atlanta.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Johnny Cueto – He cleaned up in May (4-0, 3.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 33 IP) but struggled in his first June start. Overall, his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 4.09 ERA. Cueto has been above average in both Ks and WHIP and should be in everyone’s starting lineup with his two home games this week. He gets the Giants and Royals, two teams below average in runs scored, at the Great American Ball Park, where Cueto has a 3.19 ERA this season.

Edwin Jackson – In three of his last four starts, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start. But each of those QS were on the road and Jackson has two home starts this week. In Chase Field, he has a 5.44 ERA and has been prone to the gopher ball, having allowed eight of his 10 HR at home. While Atlanta is not a big HR team, St. Louis is above average and the Cardinals have done most of their damage on the road, where they have hit 32 of their 50 HR this season. The Cardinals game has potential for disaster, so leave Jackson inactive if you have other options.

Colby Lewis – After posting a 2.76 ERA in April, Lewis fell to a 4.11 mark in May and allowed 4 ER in 6.1 IP in his first June outing. Lewis’ success is due to his slider but he faces the Mariners, whose sparkplugs Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins both do well against the pitch, and the Brewers, who have two of the best slider hitters in Casey McGehee and Prince Fielder. The combination of struggling pitcher and bad matchups make Lewis a player to stash on your bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – This season has been a struggle for Matsuzaka because he puts too many runners on base and has been unlucky with his strand rate. He did not allow a walk in his last outing, a game where he notched 7 Ks and picked up the win. Matsuzaka squares off against the Indians and Phillies, two teams that are essentially league-average in walks. With the Red Sox having scored 72 runs in their last 12 games, if Matsuzaka can keep from walking the ball park he has a good shot to pick up Wins this week.

Kevin Slowey – With his last two outings, Slowey broke a streak of six consecutive starts where he failed to complete six innings. He combined for 13.2 IP in his last two games and allowed just 2 ER and 2 BB. Slowey gets two home starts this week. He has a good ERA at Target Field (3.79) despite trouble with the gopher ball. Slowey has allowed six of his eight HR at home. But both the Royals and the Braves are below average in hitting HR, so make sure Slowey gets the start this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Weaver, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Lee, Gallardo, Cain, Hughes, Hamels, Haren, Pelfrey, Niemann, Marcum, Zito, Lilly, Lowe, Kazmir, Sheets, B. Anderson, Richard, Carmona, Wells, Floyd, W. Rodriguez, Francis, Medlen, Feldman, Galarraga, Volstad, LeBlanc, Hammel, Kendrick, Davies, Wakefield, Bergesen, Monasterios, Eveland, Huff, LeCure.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Eight pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.364 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.69 ERA, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Harang – Advised to start. 2 W, 7 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP (2)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. 8Ks, 4.77 ERA, 1.412 WHIP (2)
Leake – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 0.68 ERA, 1.575 WHIP (2)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Three.

Homer Bailey – Long touted as one of the top young pitchers in baseball, Bailey is having the same struggles early in 2010 as he has had throughout his career in the majors – too many walks and trouble with gopher balls. Bailey has a 5.23 BB/9 and has allowed 2 HR in 10.1 IP this year. Bailey has two starts this week at home, where he has allowed 16 of his 25 homers. While neither the Dodgers nor Padres are big HR teams, Bailey at home for two starts is still a good recipe for disaster. Making things even worse is the slow start offensively for the Reds, who are 15th in the NL with an average of 4.30 runs per game.

Brandon Morrow – The good news for Morrow is that his xFIP is half of his ERA. The bad news is that his ERA is 12.00 after two starts. Control has always been an issue for Morrow and he has allowed 6 BB in 9 IP this year. Adding to his problems are that his velocity is down, which may be contributing to the troubles this year with his changeup. His change is already 2.5 runs below average. Morrow is trying to compensate by throwing more curves, but that pitch sits at 1.8 runs below average. Even with a home start against the Royals, put Morrow on the bench until he shows something better than he has so far this season.

Brett Myers – To the dismay of my Razzball team, Myers has been decent so far this season, including a tough loss to the Cardinals in his last outing in which he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. His fastball velocity still sits below 90, but Myers has cut way back on the number of times he has thrown his heater, down to throwing just 40.5 percent fastballs. Instead, he is now an off-speed pitcher, throwing his curve nearly 32 percent of the time and his slider over 24 percent. The result has been more swings out of the strike zone and more ground balls, two positive changes. Try riding Myers in his home starts this week against the Marlins and Pirates. With the Astros finally winning a game, anything is possible now!

Mike Pelfrey – Before the season started, I thought Pelfrey and his one-pitch repertoire was destined for the bullpen. Instead, he has been the best pitcher for the Mets the first two weeks of the season, with a 2-0 record and a 1.38 ERA. In his last outing against the Rockies, in which he threw seven innings of shutout ball in Colorado, Pelfrey threw five pitches. He threw 13 sliders, 10 curves and 7 changeups according to PitchFX. And 65 percent of his pitches were strikes, including 21 of his 30 off-speed pitches. He gets home starts this week against the Cubs and Braves. It feels like bizarro world recommending both Myers and Pelfrey.

Kevin Slowey – Uncharacteristically, Slowey has had trouble with walks so far this season. After three straight seasons of BB/9 rates under 1.50, Slowey has a 5.23 mark so far this season. But he faces two teams that are below average in the American League in drawing walks, including the 13th-place Royals. Slowey is also a notorious fly ball pitcher, his 0.69 GB/FB mark is the 12th lowest in baseball, and the concern is that he will get roughed up with some home runs. But the Indians are tied for 12th in fewest homers hit. The matchups look good, so make sure Slowey is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Lackey, Hanson, Cain, de la Rosa, Billingsley, Zambrano, Price, Vazquez, Porcello, Penny, Kazmir, Wells, Niemann, Masterson, Pineiro, G. Gonzalez, Cook, Lewis, Volstad, Wakefield, Richard, Willis, Bush, Niese, Bannister, Bergesen, Kendrick, Fister, Olsen, Morton, Stammen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Even though this isn’t officially a mailbag post, the idea for this analysis came from someone with a question, who wishes to remain anonymous:

“I’m in a dynasty league, with no rules about rounds or dollar values for keepers. I have Slowey, Joba, and Cueto as potential keepers, but can only keep two of them. Which one should I trade or drop?”

Kevin Slowey only pitched through June, missing the last three months of the season after undergoing surgery on his wrist. Slowey looks poised to return by the beginning of the season, so his injury isn’t of much concern, especially in dynasty leagues. Slowey has superb control, so his WHIP should benefit from it. His high ERA in 2009 was inflated a bit by a fluky BABIP, but his home run rate will need to go down before he can be considered a top fantasy starter.

Joba Chamberlain is a hard player to project, because his role is up in the air. The Yanks are going to give him every opportunity to be a starter, and will be easing up on the “Joba Rules” next season. His strikeout rate as a starter is 8.40 per 9, while his K/9 as a reliever is 11.9. He also walks more batters as a starter, which is not a good sign of possible future success.

Johnny Cueto just finished up his second season as a starter for the Reds, lowering his ERA 40 points, and lowering his FIP 31 points. He did this by lowering his walk and home run rates, but he sacrificed strikeouts to do so. The Reds defense is good, so Cueto’s increased ground ball rate is another good sign. However, he doesn’t have much of an arsenal, and he looks to be maximizing his potential already, without much more of a ceiling to reach.

Of these three, I am keeping Slowey for sure. He is a safe bet to give you wins and a reasonable ERA and WHIP each year, with a decent strikeout total. This leaves the decision between Chamberlain and Cueto. Chamberlain still has more upside than Cueto does, so I would keep him as well. Cueto is a hard guy to cut loose, but you may be able to find a trade partner for him.

To sum it up, in a vacuum I’d rather keep Slowey and Joba over Cueto.

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th:

Kevin Slowey shows us that it’s not enough to just not walk guys. If your stuff is hittable, batters will earn their bases on the field.

That said, Slowey had a very nice year last year, and with a K/9 right around the league average (6.90 K/9), there was some hope that he would build on the campaign and take another step forward this year.

So far, fans and fantasy managers are still waiting for that step forward. Instead, Slowey’s strikeout rate has fallen almost a full run (6.02), and his 1.54 WHIP is full of dinks, dunks and blasts. It’s certainly not walks, as Slowey still sports an elite walk rate (0.89 BB/9). The question lingers: how much of this poor start is lousy luck and how much is due to mediocre stuff?

Luck has surely played a big part. His BABIP is .370 and his FIP is 4.44, so his ERA is a little bloated by the luck of the bounce. But even the secondary statistics can’t agree about his luck. He’s sporting a 35.4% infield fly ball rate, which is unsustainably lucky (it’s 15% for his career). Also, he’s stranding 76.6% of his baserunners, which is slightly lucky. And for a guy with a career home run rate over 1 per game, his 10.8% home run per fly ball rate is very neutral.

He’s also giving up a career high 24.1% line drive rate, which is a good spot to start talking about his stuff. With an 89 MPH fastball, an 84 MPH slider, a 74 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, there’s just not enough differentiation in speed between his pitches to really keep the hitters off balance. He’s usually in the zone (see his walk rate), and his 91.3% contact rate in the zone puts him at 24th worst in the league in that category. (Teammate Glen Perkins ‘leads’ the league with batters making contact on 98% of pitches inside the zone, and Nick Blackburn is 23rd, so there’s something in the water in Minnesota, it seems.)

A quick look at some pitch F/X samples doesn’t provide too many clues. Slowey’s slider is actually breaking a couple inches more this year, and the rest of his stuff seems intact, with one major caveat. Slowey has lost almost a mile per hour on his fastball (89.9 to 89.2). His slider has lost one and a half miles per hour (85.7 to 84.1). Since he wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, and his stuff isn’t very fierce either, this slight velocity loss may be some of the reason for his poor start this year. Without more velocity history, it’s hard to tell if this is a temporary blip or not, but a peek at his next pitch f/x data would be a good idea for those thinking of acquiring him. A few ‘90’s on the gun would serve him well.

Another interesting question that arises when looking at Slowey’s numbers is if he should pitch outside the zone a little more. Batters are reaching on 26.2% of his offerings outside the strike zone, a number in line with his past (25.9% career). That number also puts him right next to such strikeout luminaries as Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy. Since batters make contact on 72.9% on those pitches, it may be possible that Slowey could expand his zone a little for better results.

After last week’s bonanza of two-start pitchers, there are considerably fewer to choose from this week. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Kevin Slowey – Is off to a poor start this year and things do not look to get any easier this week. His first start is against the Tigers, against whom he has a 5.74 lifetime ERA. His second start is in New York, where the Yankees have hit 23 HR in 13 games. Slowey has a 1.57 HR/9 so far this year.

Justin Masterson – He has had two rough starts in a row and has to go on the road in both starts this week. But both starts he got beat up in his last inning and I like him this week in his matchups against Anthony Ortega and Carlos Silva.

Mike Pelfrey – He does not strike anyone out and the ERA is terrible. But after taking time off for a strained forearm, Pelfrey is 3-0 with 4.00 ERA. With starts at Citi Field and AT&T Park, Pelfrey should be able to keep the ball in the park and continue to lower his ERA.

Jordan Zimmermann – After allowing six runs in the first inning of his last start, Zimmermann pitched five scoreless frames and limited further damage, a nice thing to see from a young pitcher. Like Pelfrey he’s had trouble with the HR ball, but hopefully a road start in San Francisco followed by a home start will limit that damage.

Mike Hampton – After three solid starts to begin the year, Hampton has been knocked around in his last three outings. Expect that trend to continue with road starts at Colorado and at Chicago.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Halladay, Peavy, Lowe, Burnett, Harden, Cain, Kershaw, Floyd, Johnson, Duke, Jimenez, Arroyo, Garland, Parra, Sonnanstine, Wellemeyer, Moyer, Sanchez, Pavano, Feldman, Cabrera, Miner, Park, Silva, Sowers, Ponson, Hendrickson, Ortega.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 4 and how they did.

Blanton – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a bad one, as he allowed 6 ER in 4.1 IP. In his next start, which was pushed back to Week #5, Blanton picked up win while allowing just 1 ER in 6 IP.

Jackson – Advised to start. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one, with 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday. He pitched six scoreless innings and then gave up five runs in the seventh.

Lohse – Advised to sit. Only made one start during the week and it was a good one. 6 IP, 0 ER but a no-decision. His next start was also pushed back to Monday and he gave up 6 ER in 4.1 IP.

Young – Advised to sit. Finally one who pitched two starts. He allowed 9 ER in 10 IP.

Zito – Advised to start. He made two starts, pitched 13.1 innings and allowed 3 ER.

Kevin Slowey had a solid year for the Twins, posting a 3.99 ERA in 160 innings. Slowey’s biggest strength is his impeccable control – he issued only 24 walks in 160 innings, the lowest walk rate (1.35 per nine) of any pitcher who pitched at least 100 innings this year.

However, Slowey also struck out his share of hitters, accumulating 123 strikeouts. But what’s more, Slowey appeared to improve his strikeout rate as the season wore on.

In his first ten starts of the season, Slowey sported a solid 4.37 ERA, and had walked only nine batters in 57 innings. However, true to scouting reports, had struck out only 39 – for a rate of 6.15 per nine. This was more than enough to get by, considering his incredibly low walk rate, but it was far from dominant.

But then Slowey had a start in San Diego.

I don’t know if there is a pitcher in baseball better suited for PETCO Park than Kevin Slowey – a flyball pitcher who attacks the strike zone. Slowey predictably pitched very well on June 24 in San Diego, allowing no runs or walks in six innings, and striking out seven. And for only the second time all season, Slowey induced ten swinging strikes in his start.

Slowey carried this into his next two starts, inducing seventeen and ten swinging strikes in them, respectively. And from that point forward, Slowey was a different pitcher.

Starting with his June 24 start in San Diego, Slowey finished the season with a 3.77 ERA in 102 innings. He still walked a phenomenally low amount of hitters – 15, to be exact – but his strikeouts went up. In those 102 innings, he struck out 84 batters, for a rate of 7.41 per nine. He remained homer-prone, allowing 12 long balls during the stretch, but the increase in strikeouts was coupled with an increase in the amount of swinging strikes he induced as well.

Before June 24, batters swung and missed at 7.9% of Slowey’s pitches. After (and including) June 24, batters swung and missed at 9.2% of his pitches. During this time, Slowey received approximately the same percentage of called strikes. In other words, batters were taking pitches for strikes just as often, but were swinging and missing more often, leading to additional strikeouts.

It would be okay for a pitcher who walks as few batters as Slowey to only strike out six batters per nine. But if a pitcher like Slowey can get that strikeout rate up over seven per nine, then we’re talking about someone with a good chance of posting an ERA around 3.50 (or lower) – even with his propensity to give up homers. Furthermore, Slowey’s absurdly low walk rate helps keep his WHIP low, giving him increased value in fantasy leagues.

Slowey has always been a fly ball pitcher – almost 45% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and, since he doesn’t throw particularly hard, he is almost certainly going to be prone to the long ball. However, he’s so stingy with free passes that many of the homers hit against him are going to be solo shots. Furthermore, if he can maintain the pace at which he was striking batters out during the second half of the season, he will curtail his homer total simply because batters won’t put as many balls in play.

Think of Kevin Slowey as someone who can post an ERA of around 4, a WHIP of around 1.15 or 1.20, with a strikeout rate of approximately six batters per nine (which equates to 133 Ks over 200 innings) who plays on a good-but-not-great team. It’s unlikely that Slowey will be much worse than this.

However, if the Slowey we saw in the second half of the season is for real, he is capable of putting up an ERA of around 3.40-3.60, with a WHIP in the 1.10 range and a strikeout rate of 7.5 per nine (equaling 167 Ks over 200 innings). This may be optimistic, but Slowey has shown that he is capable of putting up these numbers for an extended period of time.

Draft Slowey expecting the conservative set of numbers – which are still pretty good. But don’t be surprised if he exceeds those expectations.