Archive for Justin Smoak

Between the rash of injuries and the flurry of trades we’re seeing right now, your league’s waiver wire should be a hotbed of action. It may or may not be depending on how many owners in your league have given up and turned their attention to the upcoming fantasy football season, but if you’re in a heated competition with just the two months remaining on the baseball season, then you should be keeping up to date with any player that is starting to sniff some regular playing time and can contribute to your cause. Here are two that may help you out…

Casper Wells, SEA  |OF|  Ownership:  ESPN – 14.5%  Yahoo – 5.0%

In the wake of the Ichiro Suzuki trade and the demotion of Justin Smoak, the Mariners appear to be going with Wells and Carlos Peguero in the corner outfield spots with recent call-up Mike Carp likely taking over first base duties.  All three are in line to receive major increases in playing time, but Wells, seems to be the most seasoned of the three and likely the one to play with the most consistency.  Sure, people will talk about Peguero’s power potential, but I look at his strikeouts and see a guy who could do more harm than good to your team.  Carp has some promise, but given the shoulder concerns and the weak numbers he showed in Triple-A this season, Wells might just be the safer bet here for some added power.

There are definitely some flaws in Wells’ game right now between the low contact rates and the excessively high SwStr%, but he’s never had a full-time job before and a lot of his impatience at the plate could be him trying to do too much because he feels like he has a limited number of at-bats to prove his worth.  That’s likely true to some extent, but now, in a situation like this where the Mariners are folding up their tents for the season, there’s little or no reason for him to put excessive pressure on himself.  It’s not that he can just coast the rest of the way, but he can certainly take some time to relax at the plate and get back to the basics.  With ISO numbers so strong at every level, there’s no question that the power is for real.  With a full-time job for two months and little or no pressure, Wells finally has the opportunity to blossom and show what he can do.

Josh Rutledge, COL  |SS|  Ownership:  ESPN – 13.4%  Yahoo – 8.0%

With so much still up in the air regarding Troy Tulowitzki’s return, Rutledge is looking like a solid pick-up if you need help in your middle infield.  Tulo insists that he will be back at some point in August, but as it stands right now, he hasn’t even picked up a bat yet.  Rutledge has filled in admirably recently and over a quick 10-game span, has his .368 with six runs scored, one home run, six RBI and three stolen bases.  His .382 BABIP is pretty inflated, but in looking at his recent minor league totals, he’s routinely posted high BABIP totals.  If he can continue to make strong contact and keep the ball in play like this, the hits should continue to fall.  True the sample size is small, but we’re also now dealing with a two month long season not six.  Short-term help can be quite beneficial, especially if the guy can get on-base regularly and can kick in with some speed.

But there’s also the chance that Rutledge sticks even when Tulo makes it back, so long as he’s playing well.  It’s not like Jordan Pacheco is tearing it up at the plate and the Rockies have made the rest of the league well aware that Marco Scutaro is available.  If Scutaro goes, then Rutledge can slide over to the keystone once Tulo returns or, if he doesn’t, then perhaps he gets a chance to play some third.  He’s an interesting choice for the short term and could easily pan out to be a full-time guy over the next two months.

Today’s Roto Riteup will not include suggestions for who to pick today in The Game, since the day’s game will have already started by the time this goes live. When games don’t start at ungodly hours, you should expect to see suggestions for the current day’s games.

Since fantasy owners watch games with a certain slant, here are some notes on things you may want to look for during the first few games of the year.

–  One thing to take note of over the first week or two of the season is Jemile Weeks’ approach at the dish. The speedy second baseman walked a good deal in the minors, but he tended to opt to put the ball in play during his stint with the A’s last season. Last season the switch-hitter averaged 3.85 pitches per plate appearance and swung 42.7% of the time, so use those numbers as a sort of benchmark going forward. If he decides to walk in the majors, his OBP could make him supremely valuable.

Read the rest of this entry »

You’re gonna have to learn your clichés.  You’re gonna have to study them, you’re gonna have to know them. They’re your friends. Write this down:  “We gotta play it one day at a time…I’m just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub…I just wanna give It my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things’ll work out.” — Crash Davis

While the influx of baseball chatter and interviews is sincerely welcomed at this time of year, we, as fantasy owners, must maintain a clear head and corral that child-like jubilation that a new baseball season brings.  You’re going to hear a number of comments regarding players and teams from both coaches and general managers, as well as from the players themselves.  You’re going to hear things that get you excited about a particular player and if you don’t take things with a grain of salt, you could get swept up in the pomp and circumstance of spring training, lose sight of what’s actually in front of you, and fall victim to the hype.

So with that, let’s look at some common phrases you’ll hear and how you might want to react to them. Read the rest of this entry »

– Unofficial crowdsourcing question: Will Dan Uggla be overvalued next season because of his hitting streak, or will he be undervalued because of his extremely slow start? You may not say he will be valued appropriately, because we all know that never happens.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the second half of the season beginning this weekend and your league’s trade deadline rapidly approaching, keeper league owners are making the same tough decision that numerous MLB teams are making.  Are they buyers or sellers?  If in contention for a top finish, keeper league owners are deciding which stud protect to deal off to bolster their roster for a run at the title while the bottom-feeders are licking their chops, ready to give up the world to get their man.  It turns into quite the ugly battle in most leagues and is usually a primary source of fantasy angst.  But like it our not, it’s reality.  Welcome to the dump trade. Read the rest of this entry »

When I first sat down to write this week’s column, I was all set to spend my time bashing Adam Dunn.  You know, talk about how I built up the rest of my infield with the first two picks, grabbed King Felix in the third round and then, when all the other first base mashers were off the board, swoop in and steal Dunn and his 40 bombs in the fourth.  It was the “perfect” strategy right up until the part where Dunn decided he couldn’t hit anymore.  But then, as I was wrapping up my introduction, I got a text that changed my whole plan.  You know the text I’m talking about — the one from that guy in my primary league. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s really no need to be embarrassed.  It’s a very common problem.  In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners.  I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time.  No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better.  It happens to everyone.  Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some first basemen.

Billy Butler
Butler continued to increase his walk rate while simultaneously cutting back on the K’s. The batting average is always there, but owners are still waiting for the power to come along. He’s only 24, so a power surge is still possible, but it’s probably going to take a slight adjustment in his swing, and that may not be worth the risk. Somewhere down the road, he has a 30 HR season or two in him, but how long are you willing to wait?
Crude 2011 Projection: .315/.395, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as he keeps churning out a high average, I’m willing to wait for more power.

Kendry Morales
Morales had a chance to duplicate his 2009 success until he snapped his leg like a twig. He’ll still be in his peak years when he returns, so the leg is likely the only thing to hold his value back.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.345, 28 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you got him in the fourth, he’s still worth it.

Matt LaPorta
It feels like I’ve been here before. You? For someone who’s supposed to be a great power hitter, LaPorta has a sub-.400 slugging percentage. The only good thing to come out of this year is his improved BB%, and a ton of MLB experience. He’s still only 25, so maybe he’s a late bloomer?
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.320, 16 HR
Verdict: Cut. Not looking like a stud, may never even be average.

Justin Smoak
He disappointed early this season, but Smoak has been on fire since he was recalled. He’s kept the strikeouts to a reasonable level, is working walks and is still hitting for power. Sure, it’s a small sample, but I like what I’m seeing right now.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. Too much potential to let him go.

Ike Davis
I’m not going to lie and say I saw this coming. Davis has been very good this year, and has gotten overlooked quite a bit. He has the Mets job going forward, and will be a big part in their rebuilding plan.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.365, 23 HR
Verdict: Keep. He may never be a superstar, but he’ll put up good numbers.

If you have a first basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

With the end of (fantasy baseball) days coming, some owners will need to look towards next year. Here are three first baseman who are widely available, and could provide some spark for you in the coming years at a very cheap price.

Brandon Allen | D’Backs | 1% Owned
Allen’s game is very simple, and reminds you of another Arizona slugger. He will hit home runs, and strike out more than any human being should, and will have an average walk rate. The hope is that he can keep the batting average above .250, allowing him to at least have some value to your team. Allen’s not playing everyday…yet. Adam LaRoche will likely try to find another home this offseason, freeing up the first base job for Allen and his stick. If he can stay healthy next year and get the bulk of the playing time, I wouldn’t be shocked to see at least 20 homers with a batting average hovering around the .245 mark. It’s not great, but if you’re a rebuilding team, it’s a step in the right direction.

Freddie Freeman | Braves | 0% Owned
While Freeman’s minor league numbers are nothing to laugh at, just glancing at them on the surface doesn’t make you want to scream “top prospect!” However, Freeman’s minor league career consists of hitting well at levels that are advanced for his age, something that cannot, and should not be overlooked. He doesn’t walk as much as you’d hope, but he has limited the strikeouts nicely and has provided enough pop to have Braves fans dreaming about him in next year’s lineup. Freeman’s only 20, so he still has lots of room to develop as a player, and the Braves may not be ready to have him make the next step. Keep an eye on him (and Derrek Lee) this offseason, but Freeman is a nice guy to keep stashed in your system.

Justin Smoak | Mariners | 3% Owned
We don’t have much new information when it comes to Smoak, except an update on how he’s done in a new minor league system (and ballpark). Smoak has a .271/.377/.481 line as a Rainier, hitting seven dingers in only 159 plate appearances. If he can work on limiting his strikeouts, his line drive stroke and pop will translate over beautifully into the big leagues. The Mariners are going to give him plenty of chances to play everyday next year, and it could be a big one for the Smoak Monster.

It’s just one of those things. I feel good at the plate, but I hit it right at them.

— Justin Smoak, to the Fort Worth Star Telegram

You can’t just hit the ball hard and not get any luck…. Justin is holding his own, and we’ll just leave it at that.

— Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington, to the Star Telegram

In late April, the Texas Rangers called up first baseman Justin Smoak from Triple-A Oklahoma City. The club hoped that the switch hitter’s keen strike-zone awareness and power would provide an upgrade over the scuffling Chris Davis. Smoak’s first taste of the majors has been bitter — he’s batting .207/.318/.364 in 255 plate appearances. His wOBA is .306, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA is 16 percent below average (84 wRC+). That’s not quite what the Rangers thought they’d get from the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft. However, both the South Carolina product and his manager are correct in a sense. Smoak’s getting some bad bounces, but he also might need to make an adjustment at the plate. Overall, he’s holding his own in the majors.

Back when the Rangers popped Smoak and handed him a $3.5 million bonus, Baseball America lauded his “superior pitch recognition.” That skill has been on full display since he signed — Smoak’s career minor league line sits at .293/.411/.461 in 599 plate appearances, with a 16% walk rate. With the Rangers, Smoak’s working the pitcher for a walk 14.1% of the time. He’s not getting a lot of pitches within the strike zone (44.7%, compared to the 47.2% MLB average), and he’s doing a good job of laying off those offerings. Smoak’s outside swing percentage is 25.7%, well below the 28.5% big league average. Adeptly discerning balls from strikes, Smoak isn’t falling behind the pitcher often — his first pitch strike percentage is just 52.2% (58.6% MLB average).

He’s also hitting for solid, if not spectacular power. The 23-year-old has a .157 Isolated Power, with 13.6% of his fly balls hit turning into home runs. Smoak’s power output in the minors wasn’t off-the-charts (.168 ISO), but that may have been the result of a rib cage injury suffered in the middle of the 2009 season. Few question the 6-4, 220 pounder’s ability to put a charge into the ball.

If Smoak’s taking his walks and showing decent pop, why is his line so lousy? The answer appears to be a combination of poor luck and perhaps a timing issue when he decides to pull the trigger.

His BABIP on the season is extremely low, at .234. Among big league hitters with at least 250 PA, Smoak has the fifth-lowest BABIP. Part of the reason for that low BABIP is that he’s hitting a bunch of pop-ups — Smoak’s infield per fly ball rate is 18.6%, the third highest rate in the majors and far higher than the 7-8% MLB average (for reference, Smoak hit pop ups 9.2% of the time in the minors). But even with that IF/FB rate, Smoak’s expected BABIP is .315.

Meanwhile, at Triple-A, Davis is hitting .340/.389/.533. Given that line, it might be tempting to make a change. That performance includes good pop (.193 ISO), but also a modest walk rate (7.4 BB%) propped up by a .420 BABIP. If the Rangers stay the course with Smoak, they’ll likely be rewarded.