Archive for Julio Teheran

When Julio Teheran takes the mound against the Mets at SunTrust Park on Thursday night, he will be looking to extend a hot streak that extends back to the beginning of July. Over his last seven starts encompassing 42.1 innings, Teheran has registered a 1.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Since July 1, Teheran ranks 30th in Roto value among starting pitchers (per CBSSports.com rankings), and he would place in the top 20 if not for inconsistent run support and a Luke Jackson blown save that cost him a win against the Nationals on July 19. Despite excellent ratios, Teheran is just 2-1 over this stretch.

When a pitcher gets more strikeouts and reduces walks and home runs, an increase in fantasy value is to be expected, and Teheran has recently been accomplishing all three things. The decrease in his walk rate is the most dramatic of the improvements and also the most needed. Over the preceding season-and-a-half, Teheran’s walk rate was a lofty 11.7 percent, but over his last seven outings, that rate is a slightly-below-league-average 8.1 percent. He did not have a home run problem over the first three months of this season, as evidenced by his 1.05 HR/9, but since then, he has been even better at keeping the ball in the park with an 0.85 HR/9.
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Jeff Sullivan pointed out that Stroman discovered Roy Halladay’s Sinker and presented his arsenal change (Fourseam and Cutter swapped for more Sinkers):

Stroman upped his Sinker usage and was comfortable using the pitch despite the count situation. From Sullivan’s post on 2/13:

Stroman was comfortable using the sinker when behind in the count against all hitters. Same when he was ahead in the count. Same when he was even. Same on the first pitch. Same with two strikes. He’s got other pitches, a lot of other pitches, and he still has his four-seamer, too, when he wants to elevate some heat, but the sinker has given Stroman something he didn’t have: a groundball pitch he can locate and use to get quick outs.

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On Monday I ran the 2015 Steamer projections for starting pitchers through Zach Sanders’ Fantasy Value Above Replacement system and compared them to early NFBC ADP data to identify some possible bust candidates. I looked at four guys specifically, but there are a few more names that I think are worth discussing.

Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres

Despite having a 2.55 ERA last year, early drafters seem to recognize that Cashner has some limitations. He’s going 35th among starters, but given his ERA last year and some perceived name value, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was going at least in the top 30. Presumably concerns about his ability to pitch a healthy number of innings and his lack of strikeouts in recent years have tempered Cashner enthusiasm. But according to Steamer, drafters are still too enthused as Cashner comes in 67th in the Steamer rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

Mock. Yeah. Ing. Yeah. Draft. Yeah.

You can follow our 12 team, standard 5×5 roto mock draft. Else, here is a summary of the first two rounds and our first outfield battle.

My first battle is my self-battle on Zack Greinke. After 63 picks in, I tweeted an image of my rankings, which had Zack Greinke literally all alone at #23 overall. Everyone else in the top 40 were gone by pick 63 except for Greinke and Prince Fielder whom I wound up drafting once pick 6.72 came around.

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For many in my generation, when one thinks of starting pitching, the focus immediately turns to Atlanta. It’s been an overwhelming constant for the Braves, whether we’re talking Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson or (at least last year) Mike Minor. In fact, since The Strike, the Atlanta Braves have enjoyed the best starting pitching in Major League Baseball. Their cumulative 3.73 ERA is well-ahead of the pack, with the Los Angeles Dodgers being the only other team with a sub-4.00 ERA from their starters since the 1995 season.

Thus, it’s not surprising the Braves trotted out yet another effective rotation last year. Even without the injured Brandon Beachy, their rotation featured three top-30 fantasy starters in Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen. The trio are poised to headline the rotation once again in 2014, so in terms of a fantasy outlook, there’s plenty to like.

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After making just five starts in 2013, Gavin Floyd landed on the disabled list and headed in for Tommy John surgery which, obviously, put him on the shelf for the duration of the season and put his estimated return time to somewhere around mid-May of 2014. Not really the way you want to head into your walk year, is it? But the surgery was successful and all reports on his recovery have been positive. No one is jumping up and down and raving about his newly reconstructed arm, but the reports have been good. As such, Floyd was given a one-year, $4M contract by the Atlanta Braves and he will now finish his rehab under their watch. How things shake out in May, though, will be taken as they come. Read the rest of this entry »

September call ups are almost here, so some new names will enter the daily fantasy pool. This is probably more true on other daily sites besides Draftstreet, but call ups tend to be undervalued. Because pricing models are based on previous statistics, it makes sense that guys without a track record would be somewhat conservatively priced. Here are just a few call ups that could be useful in the final month.

Nick Castellanos – OF – Detroit Tigers

Castellanos didn’t destroy Triple-A or anything, but he hit for a little power (.168 ISO) and displayed good plate discipline (16.4% K%, 9.3% BB%). He’s unlikely to see regular starts, but that’s the beauty of daily fantasy. We don’t need him to play everyday to have a use for him. He may take some starts from Matt Tuiasos0po against left-handed starters. He had a .852 OPS in 109 PA versus lefties in Triple-A, so if he’s cheap enough he could be an option when starting. Read the rest of this entry »

I love the commenters on this site. I write elsewhere, and the audience is more interactive here than anywhere else I’ve seen. And it’s not just that they’re involved; it’s that their they’re smart. I’ve gotten several ideas for posts from commenters, and they frequently point out things that I miss. But I think they may have one thing wrong. Or at least there may be something upon which they’re placing too much weight.

When picking pitchers, the first thing I look at is the quality of the pitcher’s opponent against pitchers of the same handedness. Well, I take that back. The first thing I look at is whether the pitcher is any good or not. But I don’t usually have to look that up. After those initial hurdles are cleared, I look at conditions. I’m looking for cooler temperatures and winds blowing in (with a few exceptions). All of these factors generally go toward run prevention.

But commenters often point out a pitcher’s strikeout ability and/or the strikeout percentage of the opposing team. They note the importance of strikeouts on Draftstreet. I myself used to look at the opposing team’s K% as one of the more important factors, but I seemed to have more success when I placed most of my attention on run prevention. But was I right to favor run prevention over strikeout potential? Or are the commenters right? Is strikeout percentage the most important factor? Read the rest of this entry »

Heading into 2012 the Atlanta Braves were considered by many to have some of the best depth in their rotation. Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson were the veterans atop the staff, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy were the young guns ready for the rotation, and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado were highly thought of prospects. But the rotation looks quite a bit different heading into 2013. Hanson and Delgado are gone. Beachy is out until the summer with an injury. Minor had an up and down year, and Teheran had an ERA over 5.00 in 26 starts at AAA.

But things are not as bad as that last paragraph would make them seem. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: The Orioles put a pebble in the way of their top prospect’s path while creating some competition with a back-end arm; the Mets have a new reason not to rush their best young pitcher; and the Cubs might not be counting on much from an outfielder with cataclysmic contact concerns.

But first, a quick take on the prospects who were affected by the Justin Upton trade, which is being covered aplenty by my fellow RotoGraphers.

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