Downtime. Major leaguers have some right now. Most of us fantasy baseball players need some, at some point. Today’s first entry had been getting some a little more regularly because the appropriate teammates of his were healthy. Today’s second entry hasn’t really had much because his organization wanted him to continue to pitch, just not for the parent club, understandably.
On Monday I touched on the idea of examining how hitters have performed against specific types of pitchers to try and find good daily matchups. Because a batter’s performance against a specific pitcher is too small of a sample to be predictive, why not look at a batter’s performance against that pitcher and others like him?
Let me qualify everything I’m about to say by saying that this method of choosing batters is merely something I am exploring. Despite the increased sample size I can get by looking at a batter’s performance against similar pitchers, it’s still usually not a huge sample size. And I’m also doing a pretty crude job of finding similar pitchers. I’m considering strikeout and walk skills, groundball and flyball tendencies, frequency of fastball usage and velocity as my variables in finding similar pitchers.
It’s hardly scientific and nothing close to exact. But I’m almost positive it’s a better approach than just using simple batter-versus-pitcher data. But I’m not sure it’s better than just looking at how a batter has performed against either left or right handed pitching as a whole. Read the rest of this entry »
If you’ve never played a daily fantasy contest, you may be unsure what type of game to play. You have to make a few decisions to find the right game for you.
The first decision is salary cap or pick ‘em. Salary cap is exactly what it sounds like. You have a salary cap ($100,000) to pick your lineup which consists of three pitchers, one player at each infield position, three outfielders and a utility slot. In a pick ‘em contest, everyone picks one player from each tier. Tiers are just small groupings of players.
I prefer salary cap because it requires a little more effort. You have to sift through all the players in a cap contest as opposed to a small number of players in a pick ‘em. If you’re willing to put in the time required to find the value in a cap contest, you may have an advantage. Everyone in the contest may not be willing to take the time to find value. Read the rest of this entry »
Last year around this time I was sitting and watching a Royals spring training game and absolutely beaming with sheer delight every time either Eric Hosmer or Lorenzo Cain came to bat. I had just finished drafting in my primary keeper league and after holding over Hosmer from a rookie season of deliciousness, added his teammate to the mix for a reasonable sum of six bid dollars. The two of them were going off last spring. Batting averages consistently over .400, home runs, stolen bases, Hosmer was working in the outfield ready to add dual-eligibility to his resume and it was fixin’ to be one helluva season. But then the season opened and….well….you know. Cain got hurt and hit the DL within the first week and Hosmer went from super-stud to super-dud in a matter of minutes. Obviously you can’t predict injuries, but there were some warning signs with Hosmer that I guess I chose to overlook given the way he was playing at the time. So with that, I decided to look at some of the hot springs that may entice you to draft, but should probably be left alone for the season. Read the rest of this entry »
In the aftermath of the Justin Upton trade lies the messy entrails of fantasy baseball detail. Relative to third base, since the end of the 2012 season, the Atlanta Braves have gone from future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones to steady Martin Prado to Juan Francisco and a current Hall of Famer. That’s right, Chris Johnson is in the Stetson University Hall of Fame, and don’t you forget it.
As fantasy baseball goes, this probably helps Martin Prado but it muddies the water quite a bit in Atlanta unless you think Juan Francisco is going to hit like he currently is in the Caribbean at .307/.369/.575. But with Johnson coming over with Upton, the situation draws the potential for the dreaded platoon, which can effectively murder any value a player might have at a position. With this in mind, should you have Chris Johnson (and?) or Juan Francisco on your draft radar screen?
We read the tea leaves as best we can throughout Spring Training. Playing time, roles, platoons, etc., have a significant effect on the value of players on our fantasy teams. Despite the most reliable of crystal balls, once the season starts, you finally get to the truth about how players will be used. While the numbers are obviously far too small for us to do much dissecting at this point, the actual roles of players can be telling.
As much as I doubted that Mark Trumbo would see much action at third base, the two games he’s started have both been at the hot corner and it very much seem(ed) like the team was committed to playing him there routinely. In many leagues, he will qualify at third in just three more starts there and with that eligibility, Trumbo will be far more valuable. The burning question is whether his brutal defense will allow him to ever qualify. He’s already made three errors, he was left out of Monday’s starting lineup in favor of Alberto Callaspo, and it’s not likely that he’s going to displace Vernon Wells in the outfield anytime soon. While his defense was an ongoing topic of concern throughout the Spring, it’s certainly going to be under the proverbial microscope going forward. If Mike Scioscia loses any confidence he once had in Trumbo, it might not be long before Trumbo is a part-time player and irrelevant in fantasy circles. If he can somehow stick at third, however – he’s certainly worth owning, assuming you don’t play in an OBP league.
Injuries at this time of year, especially to your star players, can be absolutely brutal. Head to head league owners are playing in championship games and every little bit of production helps as your roto season winds down. With the likelihood that your waiver wire has been picked cleaner than a Thanksgiving turkey at Fatty McButterpants’ house, grabbing a last minute injury replacement just might be enough to carry you to the end. For you NL-only leaguers and deep mixed league owners, here are two you might consider.
In 2009, Cincinnati’s outfielders featured lackluster lumber. George Foster, Cesar Geronimo and Ken Griffey Sr. they were not. Collectively, Reds fly catchers posted a .318 wOBA, second-worst in the N.L. Considering that the Padres (.317 wOBA) play in a park that’s anathema to offense, it’s safe to say that Cincy’s outfielders were the least potent in the Senior Circuit.
However, better days are on the horizon. The Reds have a plethora of intriguing outfield options, some already in the majors and others just around the corner in the minors. Here’s a rundown of who may be guarding the gaps at the GAP in 2010 and beyond.
In the majors
The Boss entered 2009 with plenty of fantasy hoopla, but his final .223/.303/.470 triple-slash looks disappointing. Or does it? At age 22, Bruce walked more, struck out less and hit for a near-.250 ISO. The potent lefty batter swung at fewer pitches out of the zone, took at cut at more in-zone offerings and made more contact. In other words, Bruce matured at the dish.
His BABIP was shockingly low, at .222. Yes, his line drive rate (13 percent) was also down considerably. But even so, Bruce’s Expected BABIP, based on HR, strikeouts, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls, was .294. Bruce turns 23 in April. With his wrist healed, he’s poised to wreak havoc on pitchers in 2010. The fans seem well aware of Bruce’s talents, projecting a .271/.343/.497 line for Cincy’s right fielder.
The 8th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs made a favorable first impression in Cincinnati following his call-up last August. The University of Texas alumnus turned in a .267/.323/.439 line in 196 plate appearances (101 wRC+), swiping 10 bags in 14 attempts. Stubbs displayed a surprising amount of pop in the majors, with 8 HR and a .172 ISO.
A 6-4, 200 pound righty batter, Stubbs has long been adored by scouts for his range in center field. His TotalZone defensive numbers are glowing, too. Stubbs’ bat, however, has been subject to much debate.
While displaying a keen eye at the plate, Stubbs had issues making contact with the Long Horns. Those swing-and-miss tendencies have manifested in pro ball, with the gifted defender whiffing in 23.4% of his PA in the minors. His big frame hasn’t translated to a lot extra-base thump (career .132 ISO).
However, Stubbs continues to work the count well (11.9 BB%), and his base stealing has gone from haphazard (23 SB, 15 CS in Low-A in 2007) to fantastic (46 SB, 8 CS in AAA in 2009). As a plus CF with plate discipline and quick feet, the 25 year-old looks like a quality starter for the Reds. His base thievery makes him relevant in fantasy circles.
Dickerson’s 2009 season was cut short by shoulder and ankle injuries. In between the ailments, the 28 year-old performed up to expectations: he worked the count (13.3 BB%), punched out often (25.9 K%) and nabbed some bases (11 SB, 3 CS). Dickerson didn’t put a charge in the ball in the lower minors, but his work at AAA (.180 ISO) and with the Reds in 2008 gave some hope that the 6-3, 225 pound batter had found his power stroke. Alas, a near-fifty percent GB rate in 2009 produced a .098 ISO.
Dickerson straddles the line between highly useful 4th outfielder and acceptable starter (Chris helps himself with quality outfield D). Given his issues with lefty pitching in the minors (career .223/.328/.319 line), he figures to take on righties in a platoon role in 2010. If you’re in a deep NL-only league, you could do worse.
Acquired from Seattle last July for RHP Robert Manuel, Wlad has failed to translate his minor league feats of strength to the big leagues.
Balentien was Curacao’s version of Jeff Francoeur in the low minors, swinging at anything within a five mile radius of home plate. However, the big righty batter cleaned up his plate approach in AAA (10.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, .283/.359/.534 line).
Unfortunately, Balentien has been carved up in the majors. In 559 career PA, Wlad has a weak .221/.281/.374 line, with a 72 wRC+. He has been merely below-average against fastballs and changeups. But breaking stuff has baffled him entirely (-3.12 runs/100 against sliders, -1.5 vs. curveballs). As a result, Balentien’s 70% MLB contact rate is miles away from the 80-81% average.
You might think Wlad would be a decent platoon mate for Dickerson, but Balentien has a reverse platoon split. At 25, Balentien is entering a critical point in his career. He needs to tighten his strike zone and avoid looking like Pedro Cerrano against stuff that bends and breaks.
Outrighted by the Reds during the fall, Laynce was recently brought back to Cincy on a minor league deal. The 30 year-old lefty hitter is coming off of a season in which he popped 15 HR and posted a .236 ISO.
Once you factor in Nix’s hack-tastic approach (6.6 BB%) and favorable home ballpark, though, his offense was eight percent below the league average (92 wRC+; his career mark is a paltry 74). As a good defender who occasionally makes some loud contact against righties, Nix is a decent extra outfielder. But he’s not a fantasy option. If you’re stuck playing a guy with a career .277 OBP, you’re screwed.
What happens when a batting average-dependent player, with zero power or patience, doesn’t have those bloops and ducksnorts fall in? Ask Taveras. The 28 year-old was merely very bad at the plate in 2008 (74 wRC+). But in 2009, horror ensued.
Taveras’ bat was 51 percent worse than the league average (49 wRC+) as he battled a quad strain. Sure, he stole some bases (25 SB, 6 CS). But Taveras is the exact type of player that fantasy players should avoid. He gives production in one category, at the expense of severely hampering you in many others. Stubbs has Taveras’ speed and actually has a clue in the batter’s box. Willy figures to be either glued to the bench or in another city come spring.
Coming soon
A 17th round pick out of Division III Messiah (PA), Heisey vaulted up Cincinnati’s prospect list with an impressive 2009 season.
A career .298/.369/.460 hitter in the minors, Heisey possesses a broad, if short of star-caliber skill-set. He hits for some power (.162 ISO career, and a .214 ISO at AA in 2009), but he’s not a hulking over-the-fence threat. The right batter picks his SB spots well (career 84.3 SB%), though he wouldn’t be described as a burner. Heisey gets positive reviews for his outfield defense, but he’s likely a corner outfielder in the majors. The well-rounded prospect could be more selective at the dish: his career walk rate is a little over eight percent.
Baseball America said it best in its 2010 Reds Top 10 Prospects list: “Heisey could be termed a ‘cheap five-tool player.'” The 25 year-old isn’t far away from making his big league debut. He’s no star, but Heisey and his blend of talents could figure into Cincy’s left field picture.
At this point, few doubt that the former Rutgers star is going to pack a punch with his bat. The question is, where will his name be penciled in on the diamond? A 6-3, 215 pound righty hitter, Frazier has trekked all over the field.
He’s not going to stick at shortstop. The Reds had him pinballing from left field to first base to second base in 2009, with a couple appearances at the hot corner for good measure. Brandon Phillips, a plus defender at 2B who’s signed for two more years (with a club option for 2012), doesn’t figure to be moving. Scott Rolen is Reds property through 2012 following his restructured deal with the club.
As such, LF appears to be the place where Frazier (a career .296/.367/.491 minor league hitter) breaks into the majors. “Arm bar” or not, his bat figures to be potent.
Position switch?
The 6-2 lefty hitter made his major league debut last season, and has played almost exclusively at 3B in the minors. However, Francisco is tipping the scales at 210+ pounds already. His long-term viability at the position is in question. The 22 year-old has ample pop (.201 minor league ISO), but he has to do a better job of laying off junk balls. He has taken a free pass in just 3.8% of his PA, with a 23.4% K rate. Francisco would be best served spending a full season in AAA, lest big league pitchers take advantage of his eyes-to-ankles strike zone.
A first-round pick in the 2008 draft out of Miami, Alonso has a sweet lefty swing and has batted .293/.378/.459 on the farm. His ’09 season was slowed by a broken hamate bone, but Alonso still reached AA. While Yonder is not far away, there’s a sizeable road block at first base in Joey Votto. Sadly, the 6-2, 215 pound Alonso runs like tree sap in winter. Baseball America said “Cincinnati has toyed with playing him at third base, but his limited range would be a liability.” Perhaps the Reds will put him in left field, stomaching his defensive mishaps in exchange for his quality lumber.
The third base position in Cincinnati has been a busy place in 2009. Edwin Encarnacion began the year as the club’s starter before injuries and a subsequent trade to Toronto ended his storyline. Other players such as Adam Rosales, Drew Sutton, and Paul Janish have also spent time there, although the latter’s batting average of .217 tops the trio.
The trade of Encarnacion was made to bring in veteran Scott Rolen, a good defensive player who was having a solid offensive season with Toronto. Since coming back to the National League, Rolen has hit just .263/.342/.364 in 114 at-bats, and he was slowed with post-concussion symptoms after a beaning in one of his first games with the Reds.
Rolen is signed to a hefty contract for 2010 – and the Reds also paid a large price in young arms for him – so he’ll be the everyday guy next year, if healthy. That leaves the status of two upper-level third base prospects in limbo. Both Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are near-MLB-ready. In fact, Francisco was called up to the Majors in September.
Both players began the year in double-A. Francisco spent the majority of time at the hot corner. He hit .281/.317/.501 with 22 homers in 437 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then promoted to triple-A where he hit .359/.384/.598 with another five homers in 92 at-bats. That earned him his first big-league shot. On the downside of Francisco’s numbers, the 22-year-old prospect walked just 4.3% of the time in 2009, which sadly is a career high for him. A rate like that (along with a K rate of 22%) will not translate into much success in the Majors, regardless of how well he’s done in the minors. Francisco’s glove at third base also begs for the DH role in the National League.
Frazier moved to the outfield to accommodate Francisco in double-A in ’09. He’s also seen time at second base. His best position, though, remains third base. The 23-year-old prospect hit .290/.350/.481 with 40 doubles in 451 at-bats in double-A. A late-season promotion to triple-A resulted in a line of .302/.362/.476 with another five doubles in 63 at-bats. Overall, he also slugged 16 homes. His walk rate of 8.6% is not great, but it’s double what Francisco had to offer. Frazier’s strikeout rate was also about 10% lower than his teammate’s.
Neither player will see much time at the hot corner in Cincinnati in 2010, barring an injury to Rolen. Both players are still young, though, and someone will likely have to take over in 2011. The safer bet for that job would be Frazier as he is a better overall hitter and fielder. Francisco potentially has a higher upside but the walk rate is a huge concern, as the only big leaguers with a similar walk rate and strikeout rate are Clint Barmes of the Rockies and Aaron Rowand of the Giants.
Frazier could be a valuable player for the Reds, as well as fantasy managers, in 2010. He has a solid approach that leads to excellent gap power (that could easily turn into HR power with more experience) and he has the potential to hit for a solid average. His defensive versatility would also make him a flexible resource at numerous positions (2B, 3B, OF). Francisco’s three straight 20+ homer seasons may be more enticing, but Frazier remains the safer bet.