Archive for Jose Guillen

Every season we have unexpected hot starts from a multitude of players around the Majors. Some are for real, some are just a tease. The home run is one of the more valuable fantasy categories in many leagues. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 home run hitters in the Majors and try to sort out who’s legit and who’s going to make novice fantasy players look silly in the long run.

At the beginning of the season, I would have called you insane for telling me Vernon Wells would be leading the Majors in homers. After all, he’s coming off of three pretty lousy seasons (1.5 WAR or worse). But I’ve seen him with my own eyes quite a few times this season and that swing is for real. The outfielder had wrist surgery this past off-season, for an issue that had been dogging for, well, apparently for about three years. His approach still makes me cringe, as he pulls absolutely everything (even wild pitches headed for the first base dugout), so his average is probably going to suffer. As long pitchers keep making mistakes out and over the plate, though, Wells is going to cream pitches for doubles and homers.

I’ve been touting Matt Kemp as a 2010 breakout candidate for a while now and it looks like he might be ready to make me look smart. He’s hitting for power and average, while also driving in most of L.A.’s runs (20 in 14 games). He has a legit shot at a 30-30 season if he improves his stolen base rate.

Mr. Late Bloomer Nelson Cruz is out to prove that his ’09 season was not a fluke. He’s going to strikeout a fair bit and he probably isn’t going to hit .300, but a 30+ homer season is definitely within reason. Oh, and check out the three steals… another 20+ SB season, would certainly make him an even more attractive fantasy player.

If you think Wells is a shocking addition to the home run leader board, you’re probably on the floor with a tingly left side now that you’ve seen Jose Guillen’s name on the board. I mean, it’s almost like his contract is up or somethi- What? Oh. Guillen is currently hitting like a man possessed, but who knows if or when the streak will end. Enjoy it while it lasts and don’t feel bad for picking him up and riding the hot bat. (And yes, I know he apparently almost died last year from a clot).

I don’t think we really need to get too in-depth here with Chase Utley. He’s the best offensive second baseman on the planet (and a pretty nifty defender to boot). End of story.

Uh, well, the same thing goes for Mr. Pujols. The home runs are no surprise and they should not let up any time soon. The scary thing is that he’s actually kind of slumping right now. And it says a lot about his talent when we consider a .423 wOBA a slump…

Apparently nobody told Dustin Pedroia that 5’9” second basemen are not supposed to hit homers. He’s hit some dingers in the past, but he’s on pace for more than 20 homers this season. Alex Gonzalez opened the season with a real bang. His power output has slowed down somewhat over the past week but he still has five homers and eight doubles. He has hit more than 20 homers in a season, so the home-run burst is not that out of character.

Colby Rasmus is showing everyone why you should never count out a top prospect after a rough rookie season. The power is for real. Konerko is no longer a .280-.300 hitter like he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is proving that he still has some pop left in the tank. You should not be surprised to see Mark Reynolds‘ name on this list.

When we took a look at the Royal shortstop situation on Thursday, it became obvious that the picture would not be complete without looking at the rest of the middle infield. And, as is our wont when it comes to position battles, we’ll have to consider defense – even if it doesn’t show up in our fantasy box scores.

There’s a lot of love for the incumbent at this position, and for good reason. Alberto Callaspo was, by wOBA, the second-best hitter on the Royals last year. His approach at he plate features gobs of contact (94.5% zone-contact last year, and 87.8% was the league average) and an average walk rate (8.2% last year, 8.9% ML average). Before last year, though, he didn’t show much power. Then he more than doubled his career ISO (.156 last year, previous career high was .071) and shot into fantasy relevance. The projections show some concern about that spike and all of them have him regressing in the power department in 2010. His minor league ISO (.119) would be an item in favor of that approach.

But if Callaspo can make all that contact with average power (.155 ISO is the league average), and play good defense at second base, he should win the battle with Chris Getz, right? Well, defense is an interesting question here. UZR does not love Callaspo, giving him a -2.9 UZR/150 in 209 games while Total Zone had him as pretty much a scratch defender at the position in the minor leagues. The fans? The fans, they don’t love him. The Fans Scouting Report has Callaspo as the fourth-worst fielder on the Royals, just below Jose Guillen. Ouch.

There’s a lack of consensus on the appraisal of the defense in the case of Getz as well. The Fans Scouting Report has him as significantly better in terms of range, speed and first step, giving him an average ranking of 3.3 to Callaspo’s 2.3. UZR doesn’t like him as much, but his -6 UZR/150 has only come in 101 games, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Total Zone rates him as solid but not spectacular. In any case, the overall picture is one of player that has the chance to be better than Callaspo on defense.

If the Royals agree with assessment and need D, they will get Getz’ glove in there. What will his bat provide? So far it looks like below-average patience (7.1% walk rate), below-average power (.084 ISO), and good speed (7.3 speed score, 5.0 is average). There’s hope for a little more, though. Getz walked more in the minors (10.2%) and players usually improve in that category as they age. He had a sub-.100 minor league ISO, though, so it will only be patience and speed from Getz if he wins the job.

This is a tougher battle to handicap than the shortstop situation. The defensive numbers are not as clear, and the bats in question are somewhat similar. Because Callaspo’s power last year hasn’t been duplicated on the major league level, and because the team decided to acquire another second baseman in a trade, you have to consider that he is on thin ice. Getz does have an option left, and it may behoove the organization to demote him to AAA while they pump up Callaspo’s value and perhaps trade him mid-season. If Callaspo’s already shaky defense gets worse as he ages, he will only become less valuable in the coming years. His bat gives him the current leg up, and Callaspo should get regular at-bats somewhere on the field no matter how this battle shakes down, but neither one of these guys gets an unequivocal thumbs up because of the risk, and they only make late-round fliers in deep leagues at best.

Hopefully sometime last week you were able to pull off a Kosuke Fukudome for Justin Upton trade. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of trade targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jose Guillen – Much like Raul Ibanez, Guillen goes through streaks where he just crushes the ball. In 2008 he had a 31-game stretch where he batted .369 with 8 HR and 29 RBIs. In 2007 he had a 53-game stretch where he batted .336 with 10 HR and 42 RBIs. He was hurt in 2006 but in 2005 he had a 30-game stretch where he batted .327 with 8 HR and 21 RBIs. So what, you may be thinking, you can find lots of guys with streaks like that if you cherry pick the end points. Well, how many of those guys are likely to be on the waiver wire or not valued highly by their current owners? Guillen spent a couple of weeks on the disabled list but now looks like he’s going on one of those hot spells. Get him and enjoy a month of great production at very little cost to you.

Cliff Lee – Okay, with a 1-4 record and an ERA approaching four, Lee is not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. But his peripherals show a pitcher who should be solid from here on out. Lee has a 2.80 K/BB ratio, his HR/9 is at a nice 0.69 percent and the 90.9 he is averaging on his fastball is a career best. Lee is being hurt by a .364 BABIP. His lifetime mark in the category is .304 and he has never had a mark over .315 in his career.

Kendry Morales – After failing to win a full-time job the past three seasons, Morales fell into the “Overrated Cuban Star” category. But with little competition for the first base job, Morales figures to get 500 or more at-bats this season. And the last two years at Triple-A, he has a .341 batting average. He is probably not a threat to hit 30 HR, but a guy who can hit .315 with 20-25 HR in your corner infield slot is not a bad thing to have.

Rich Harden – The usual MO with Harden is he’s great when he’s healthy but you have no idea how long he’ll be able to hold it together. This year he’s been (knock on Kerry Wood) healthy, but the results have been less than stellar, with two of his five starts being pretty awful. Right now he is being really hurt by walks and the long ball. Harden always walks his fair share of batters but the HR rate is likely to go down. He has a lifetime HR/9 of 0.73 and only once has he posted a rate over 1, with his 1.05 mark in seven games in 2007. Right now, Harden’s HR/9 sits at 1.82 after five starts. If you need to make up ground in pitching, this is a high-risk, high-reward gamble to consider.

Troy Tulowitzki – A 4-for-39 stretch is really dragging down Tulowitzki’s overall numbers at this point. But I like the .200 ISO and I just cannot see the combination of a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and a .245 BABIP lasting for much longer.

Trade

Hunter Pence – If you were going to describe Pence, how would you do it? Is he an average hitter or a HR guy or a SB threat? Perhaps he contributes in every category but does he really help you in any of them? His batted ball profile (12.8% LD, 60.3% GB, 26.9% FB) suggests average hitter, but he has a .300 AVG with a .319 BABIP. It is hard to imagine the average staying that high going forward. It looks like 2008 is the high end of what to expect from Pence, and that is only if he can keep his HR/FB ratio in double digits, something no one else of the 18 players with a GB rate over 50 percent was able to accomplish last year.

James Shields – The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, the home runs allowed are up and yet somehow Shields’ ERA is almost identical to where it was a year ago. It is funny what a .245 BABIP and an 81.7 percent strand rate can do for a fellow. Sell high before the hits start falling in against him.

Magglio Ordonez – The batting average will probably rebound some but the power is gone. He hit two home runs in April, which was the eighth-straight month in which he failed to hit more than five homers. See if you can find someone who remembers 2007-vintage Ordonez and views him as a buy-low candidate.

Jason Marquis – It was hard to imagine a worse fit than Marquis pitching in Colorado. He had a lifetime 1.42 WHIP and a 1.51 K/BB ratio. So of course right now he is sitting at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.42 K/BB and a 1.19 WHIP. It is going to be hard to find someone who wants to trade for him, but at the very least ask around and see if you can find a taker.

Jeff Francoeur – All we hear these days is how newspapers are in trouble. Papers are either shutting down or are on life support. Even the venerable Boston Globe is on shaky ground. But you never hear anything about the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And that is because they write at least one glowing article on Francoeur per week. He has reworked his swing and he is not striking out. This is a player that it seems people are actively rooting for to do well. Yet his average is nothing to get excited about and he is not hitting for great power. And it is debatable if he is going to maintain a K% less than half of his career average going forward.

*****

We are discussing having either a mail bag or a live chat to answer trade questions. So, instead of posting trade proposals and asking for feedback, please respond as to which of the two formats you would prefer seeing. A mail bag is easier on our end and is something we could get going sooner. A live chat offers a much quicker response but will require the RotoGraphs authors to coordinate our schedules, which may not match yours.

As always, comments on the individual players listed here are welcome and encouraged.

If you like your baseball careers unpredictable, than you will love Jose Guillen. The Pirates made him a full-time starter at the age of 21 and he looked overmatched. And then he regressed. After several years of irrelevance, Guillen bounced back with one of the most improbable years ever in 2003 when he put up an OPS+ of 142. Since then he’s posted three fairly productive seasons, one injury-marred campaign and last year’s mediocre effort.

In 2008, Guillen had three months where he batted .308 or better and three months where he hit .212 or worse. He had a 42-game stretch where he batted .176/.234/.294 but then rebounded to post an .865 OPS in his final 108 plate appearances.

The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is Guillen’s refusal to take many walks. Last year his BB% was a dismal 3.7 percent, which amazingly only tied him for the seventh-lowest mark in the majors. It was the lowest rate in his career since his age 22 season in 1998. Not surprisingly, Guillen ranked sixth in MLB in F-Strike% (63.8%) and 24th in O-Swing % (31.6%).

But despite all those flaws, Guillen is still someone to keep tabs on during your draft. Even with last year’s disappointing numbers, he still put up 20 home runs and 97 RBIs. In his last five full seasons, Guillen has averaged 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Those numbers alone make him a bottom-of-your-roster type guy.

The key for Guillen is his batting average. Last year his fantasy value was dragged down by his .264 average. But in 2007 he hit .290 and when you recall that he rarely walks, that becomes an AB-heavy .290, which helped make him a $20 player.

The perception is that Guillen is old and that he’s a malcontent. But while he’s been around forever, next year will be his age 33 season. And while he has worn out his welcome in several cities, managers will keep writing him in the lineup as long as he’s productive.

Guillen is an ideal late round pick. If his average rebounds (last year he had a 38-point BABIP drop) he is a plus player in three categories and an easy guy to ride during one of his frequent hot streaks. And if it doesn’t, he becomes an easy guy to cut when the 2009 Cliff Lee presents himself.