Archive for Jordan Lyles

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com, which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Go Get ‘Em!

Merrill Kelly (10-14, 4.68) vs. CIN | 15%*

For only the second time this season, Kelly has put together three starts in a row with a SwStr% of at least 10 percent. It just so happens that those three most recent starts are the only ones in which Kelly has averaged at least 93 mph in fastball velocity. Across those outings, Kelly has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP to go along with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Factor in his .296 wOBA allowed in home starts plus a matchup with a Reds offense that ranks sixth in strikeout rate and 21st in wOBA over the last 30 days, and Kelly stands out as the best starter to add on this slate.
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It’s a shame that pretty much no one saw this coming. The question, then: What now?

Jordan Lyles, of the Colorado Rockies, has a 2.62 ERA. Yes, it’s after only seven starts (44 2/3 stanzas). But it’s kind of supported, with a 3.41 FIP, a 3.60 xFIP and a 3.76 SIERA. Those figures say that a correction is coming, but not necessarily the kind you’d expect for a pitcher who makes half of his starts at Coors Field and has a 13.6 K%. If you want real absurdity, check out his 1.25 ERA in three home starts (21 2/3 innings).

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In 2006, the major league baseball collective bargaining agreement scrapped Type C free agents, modified what it meant to be a Type A free agent and then gave us Type B free agents, affording the former employer a “sandwich” pick (thus, it no doubt should be referred to as the Eno Sarris pick) between the first and second rounds. This rule was first put into effect in 2007. A moderate amount of chaos ensued.

As the collective bargaining agreement is being currently re-worked, there have been rumors that Type-B free agents will be done away with, that Type-B compensation picks will be done away with, or both (we’ve recently learned that there will be Type-B free agents for this off-season). What’s at stake is fairly obvious, but it did get me wondering about the sandwich picks since 2008 and what has become of them. There are some pretty interesting names in here. While their teams wouldn’t be categorically annihilated, the absence of some of these players would certainly put a dent their respective farm systems, and in a couple cases their major league rosters.

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Houston Astros’ starting pitcher Jordan Lyles was optioned back to the minors on Sunday after posting an ERA over 5.00 in fifteen big league starts. Lyles, the Astros’ top prospect coming into the season, is a mere 20-years old and could have a nice major league future. He wasn’t a factor in standard leagues, but odds are he is owned in dynasty or large keeper leagues. With those leagues in mind, here are a few various notes about the young right-hander:

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Here is the latest update to Week 9 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: A. Sanchez, Hammel, Duensing, Guthrie, Lyles, Cobb

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Happ, Sonnanstine.

Let’s take a look at Jordan Lyles, the top pitching prospect for the Houston Astros, who will make his major league debut this week.

The Astros selected Lyles as a supplemental first-round pick in 2008, awarded for the loss to free agency for pitcher Trever Miller. Lyles has risen quickly through the organization. Last year he skipped Hi-A, as the Astros thought he could handle the jump, plus they were not eager to have him pitch in the hitter-friendly environment of Lancaster.

He excelled in Double-A, where he had an 8.15 K/9 as a 19-year old. Lyles had a late promotion to Triple-A, where he got knocked around in six starts. He began this season back in Triple-A, although this time in a different city, as Houston’s top minor league franchise is now Oklahoma City, rather than Round Rock.

In 10 starts this year in Triple-A, Lyles is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA. After posting a 1.86 WHIP in his first exposure to Triple-A, Lyles has a 1.24 mark so far this season. In his last three starts for the RedHawks, Lyles was 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed 0 HR and just 2 BB and fanned 10 batters.

Lyles is not overpowering but he has a deep repertoire and he throws strikes. It’s always impressive when a pitcher makes it to the majors at age 20. But you have to wonder if he is mentally ready to take on major league hitters and if Lyles will trust his stuff enough to thrive.

The matchups are not overly favorable for Lyles, either. He has two road starts and has to go up against Carlos Zambrano and Mat Latos. The tendency among fantasy players is to gobble up rookies when they get called to the majors, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Without dominating stuff, Lyles seems unlikely to be a fantasy stud in his first exposure to MLB.

Last week we looked at Carlos Villanueva. In his two starts, Villanueva picked up a win with a strong outing against the Yankees, where he allowed just two hits and one earned run in five innings. But his second start was a disaster, as he gave up 5 ER in 5 IP and was fortunate to come away with a no-decision.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals | 50% Owned (Y!) | 57.5% Owned (ESPN)
The young righty didn’t exactly start the season out on a high note, as he struggled to strike batters out, and his ERA paid the price. However, Zimmermann has turned a corner as of late, and is looking like a darn good starting pitcher once again. Behold, as I give on to you split stats!

April: 29.2 IP, 4.25 K/9, 2.90 FIP, 4.55 ERA
May: 24.2 IP, 9.49 K/9, 2.70 FIP, 3.28 ERA

While Zimm’s April FIP looks awfully nice, his xFIP came in at around 4.00, so most of his work was done by keeping the ball in the yard. In May, however, his xFIP is in the low-3s.

Looking at some pitch f/x data, Zimmermann’s average fastball velocity is exactly the same as it was before he went under the knife, so it’s not like he’s trying to deal with a different arsenal of pitches at his disposal. His biggest problem has been a mediocre curveball that hasn’t been fooling hitters, but his fastball-slider combo is good enough to get righties out. He’s looking like he’s mixed-league worthy right now, and his ownership rates reflect that.

Tim Stauffer, Padres | 36% | 6.4%
Stauffer’s FIP and xFIP numbers look pretty darn good, and they have been backed up by good performances for most of this season. Over his past couple of starts, though, Stauffer has been hit around, and he still hasn’t picked up a win this year. I had the chance to watch Stauffer when he played the Mariners this past weekend, and he did not look sharp. Even though he kept the ball down in the zone and got a good deal of grounders, his fastball looked a little flat and his command was shaky at times. In my opinion, he was lucky to escape with a six innings and three earned runs. I still like the idea of Stauffer on my fantasy team, but you have to keep and eye on him during his next couple of starts to make sure he doesn’t blow up. If he doesn’t, he’s a great guy to have around.

Jordan Lyles, Astros | 0% | 0%
Lyles is Houston’s top prospect, at least according to our own Marc Hulet. Lyles isn’t anything spectacular, but he has a decent arsenal and has consistently posted FIPs in the 3s throughout his minor league career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lyles up in the big leagues within a month or two, as the Astros need to take a look and see what they have long term with this guy. He won’t be great when he first comes up, but he could be a NL spot starter, at the very least.