Archive for Jonny Gomes

Platooning a left-hander and a right-hander is a fairly common practice for major league teams, but utilizing platoon partners on your fantasy team isn’t the best way to take advantage of platoon splits. This may seem super obvious to you, but it’s better to use two lefties on separate teams who are used as platoon players as opposed to using two players who are platoon partners on the same team. In other words it’s better to go with Matt Joyce and Daniel Nava than it is to go with Nava and Jonny Gomes. Read the rest of this entry »

With Jacoby Ellsbury immersed in the free agent frenzy, the Red Sox seem to be making plans for life in Boston without him. The latest rumors have them looking at Carlos Beltran for right field with Shane Victorino moving to center and Daniel Nava playing left. But the Sox are obviously kicking the tires on a few others and apparently, one thing helping them is Nava’s versatility. With his ability to play either corner position, the Sox can keep their options open and not limit themselves to just the short list of quality right fielders out there. But the real question here is, how do the Sox envision their outfield structure for 2014 and how exactly does Nava fit in? Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday Blake Murphy updated something I looked into awhile back, which was hitters with a reverse platoon split. This reminded me of another unusual split I came across earlier this season. Despite the fact that Arizona has a the 4th most hitter-friendly basic park factor and is the 8th most homer-friendly home run park for right-handed hitters, right-hander Paul Goldschmidt has been better on the road in his career. During his call up season and first full season (2011-2012), Goldy had a .338 wOBA at home and .382 wOBA on the road. Some of that was a strikeout rate that was 3% lower on the road, but that alone isn’t enough to account for a 44 point difference in wOBA.

He has been basically as good at home and on the road this season, but he has still been slightly better on the road. This just seems so strange because the average basic park factor for his road games (weighted for the number of games he has played in each park) is 99.27, and the HR as R factor for his road games is 99.17. That’s compared to a 105 basic park factor and 105 HR as R factor at home in Arizona. In other words, Goldy has had conditions 6% more favorable at home in his career, yet his wOBA is significantly higher on the road.

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We’ve spent so much time on these Would You Rathers with respect to keeper leagues that it’s time we threw some out for those that re-draft each year.  Taking long term benefits out of the way, which player would you rather draft this season — Yoenis Cespedes or Bryce Harper?

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Just when you thought the cost to draft Bryce Harper couldn’t get any higher, the Nationals’ 19 year old phenom gives you yet another reason to allocate more of your draft day budget his way.  With a single in his first at-bat during Tuesday’s game between the Scottsdale Scorpions and the Peoria Javelinas, Harper extended his hit streak to 11 games in the highly competitive, prospect-laden Arizona Fall League.  In his second at-bat, he drilled a two-run shot to centerfield and posted his fourth multi-hit game in his last five and fifth in this 11 game run.  After a slow start in which he had just three hits in his first 27 at bats, Harper has made the necessary adjustments and is now hitting .290 with 5 HR and 20 RBI through 16 games.  He’s also kicked in three stolen bases, has a .357 OBP, and owns a .913 OPS right now.  There is no blue-light special to be had here.  If you want him, it’s time to get your fantasy checkbook ready.

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Saturday was the deadline for clubs to offer a contract to arbitration-eligible players. There were plenty of non-tenders yesterday. Let’s take a quick look at some of the more intriguing position players now hitting the open market. I included each player’s CHONE projection for the 2010 season.

Garrett Atkins (.275/.345/.440, .342 wOBA)

This 30 year-old righty batter has been billed in the past as a power-hitting third baseman. But when one considers his substandard D at the hot corner (career -5 UZR/150 at 3B) and adjusts for the context of Coors, Atkins isn’t all he’s cracked up to be:

Atkins’ Park Adjusted Batting Runs, by season:

2005: -2.1
2006: +38.5
2007: +13.1
2008: -2.6
2009: -16.3

Atkins isn’t the cipher that his 2009 numbers would suggest, as he suffered from a .247 BABIP. But his Isolated Power has dipped four years running: .228 in 2006, .185 in 2007, .165 in 2008, and just .116 in 2009.

John Buck (.223/.304/.399, .305 wOBA)

With the Jason Kendall era inexplicably beginning in Kansas City, Buck got the boot. The 29 year-old backstop has ample power for the position (career .171 ISO), though he struggles to make contact (26.1 K%). Buck posted a career-high .332 wOBA in 2009, but that figure is likely to regress next year. He posted a .309 BABIP in an ’09 season interrupted by a back injury, compared to a .283 career mark. As a slow-footed catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score) who pops the ball up a lot (12.2 IF/FB%), expect Buck to hit more around his career .304 wOBA.

(Update: Buck inked a 1-year, $2M deal with the Blue Jays.)

Ryan Church (.267/.339/.419, .332 wOBA)

Bothered by back problems and a pulled hamstring, Church didn’t hit with much authority in 2009 (.111 ISO). Injuries have plagued the 31 year-old the past two seasons, as post-concussion syndrome slowed him in 2008. But when he’s able to take the field, Church is a fairly useful player. He’s a career .272/.345/.441 hitter, displaying a decent eye (9.3 BB%) and average power for his position (.169 ISO). The former Expo, National, Met and Brave has done most of his damage against righty batters.

Jack Cust (.229/.365/.426, .349 wOBA)

Cust revived his career in Oakland, as he walked nearly 20% of the time and posted a near-.250 ISO over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The Three True Outcomes hero appeared to make a concerted effort to make more contact in 2009. His outside-swing percentage increased from roughly 14% in ’07-’08 to 17.5% (still well below the 25% MLB average), and his in-zone swing percentage climbed from 62% to 68% (65-66% MLB average). The result? Fewer K’s (relatively speaking: 36.1 K% in ’09, 39.5% career mark), and walks (15.3 BB% in ’09), as well as less pop (.177 ISO).

Ryan Garko (.273/.352/.444, .347 wOBA)

29 in January, Garko is a good, not great hitter at a position where players are supposed to mash. The average MLB first baseman swatted .277/.362/.483 in 2009 (.366 wOBA).

The former Indian has performed much better vs. southpaws during the course of his big league career. Here are Garko’s sOPS+ numbers against lefties and righties since 2007. sOPS+ compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, better than 100 indicates the hitter was above-average, less than 100 means he was below-average)

2007
vs. RHP: 123 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 128 sOPS+

2008
vs. RHP: 99 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 121 sOPS+

2009
vs. RHP: 97 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 126 sOPS+

Jonny Gomes (.247/.333/.487, .351 wOBA)

The archetypal slugger, Gomes bops (career .230 ISO) and plays defense like a guy wearing cinder blocks instead of cleats (-22.3 UZR/150 in the outfield). As such, his game might be more palatable to an A.L. club. In a fantastic environment for a pull-oriented righty, Gomes compiled a .373 wOBA for the Reds in 2009.

Kelly Johnson (.268/.346/.436, .341 wOBA)

Let’s compare Johnson’s 2008 and 2009 seasons:

2008: 8.7 BB%, 20.7 K%, .159 ISO, .344 BABIP, .346 wOBA
2009: 9.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, .165 ISO, .249 BABIP, .306 wOBA

The lefty batter (28 in February) walked a little more this past season, punched out less, and hit for a similar amount of power. Johnson’s BABIP, however, dipped nearly 100 points. Kelly’s XBABIP was .329 in 2008 and .313 in 2009. Here are what Johnson’s lines would have looked like in ’08 and ’09, based on his XBABIP figures (and this is assuming all additional hits were singles):

2008 actual line: .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA
2008 adjusted line: .272/.334/.431, .333 wOBA

2009 actual line: .224/.303/.389, .306 wOBA
2009 adjusted line: .288/.367/.453, .359 wOBA

Johnson is no great shakes at second base (career -7.4 UZR/150), but he can also man the outfield corners and looks to be a strong candidate to bounce back in 2010. He’s still a quality offensive player.

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Roy Oswalt and Tim Stauffer last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Obtain

Kevin Youkilis – His AVG has taken a big hit since coming off the DL, falling 89 points. But nobody seriously expected him to challenge for .400, either. He is riding a modest six-game hitting streak and more importantly, is showing good power. In his last 16 games, Youkilis has a .281-5-14-13-0 fantasy line. He seems like a good bet to match last year’s power numbers, which many people doubted Youkilis could do again in 2009.

Oliver Perez – I can hear the groans already. Perez is terrible, he has no control and he is just as likely to get shelled as he is to pitch a good game. But in his first two games since being back, Perez has delivered exactly what a fantasy owner should expect from him – a W, good strikeout numbers (8 in 11 IP) and a high but acceptable ERA (4.09). I would recommend not actually watching him pitch, but in his 14 or so remaining starts if Perez delivers 6 W, a 4.00 ERA and his current 7.71 K/9, I think that would be nice production for the back of a team’s rotation from a guy likely available on the waiver wire.

Garret Anderson – Stat heads hate him because he does not walk and posts poor OBP numbers. But fantasy players like his AVG and respectable numbers in other categories. In mid-June, Anderson was hitting just .254 but since then his bat has been heating up. Over his last 30 games, Anderson is batting .336 with 17 RBIs in 107 ABs. He is no longer an everyday player, but Anderson still has the ability to hit for a high AVG and not kill you in the power categories.

Mat Latos – This week’s Padres pitcher recovering from an injury is Latos. He was ranked as one of the top HS pitchers in the 2006 draft but fell due to signability concerns. The Padres took him on the 11th round and he ended up at Broward CC. After a good JuCo season, San Diego gave him a seven-figure signing bonus before the ’07 draft. Latos missed most of the 2008 season with a strained intercostals muscle. But he was very impressive this season in the minors, going 8-1 with 1.37 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 72.1 innings combined between Single-A and Double-A, with the majority of his work occurring in the Texas League. Latos has already made one start for the Padres, where he showed a fastball that averaged 94.9 mph. He is on a strict pitch count for right now, which may limit his W potential, but he is a talented pitcher who may be under the radar of many fantasy owners.

Miguel Montero – For most of the first three months of the season, Montero was a huge disappointment. But he has a .413/.439/.683 slash line over his last 16 games. After teasing fantasy owners with glimpses of talent the past two seasons at the major league level, Montero apparently is putting it together here in July.

Exchange

Todd Helton – After last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Helton has bounced back with an impressive .324 AVG. In his last 22 games, Helton is batting .346 but it is the “emptiest” .346 you are likely ever to see. He has just 1 HR, 10 RBIs and 8 R in that span and 0 SB. Helton’s .359 BABIP is not out of line with marks he has put up in his past but it would surprise virtually nobody if that mark fell some and at this point, AVG is the only category that Helton is a plus player anymore.

A.J. Burnett – The strikeouts are down while the walks and HR allowed are up from 2008. Yet his ERA is 26 points lower than a season ago. Burnett’s FIP checks in at 90 points higher than his ERA. A slightly lower than normal .283 BABIP helps but the big thing right now is a career-best 79.5 percent strand rate. Burnett is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last six games, but that includes 14 shutout innings against the Mets, a team he will not see again this season.

Alfonso Soriano – A .279 BABIP gives hope for a second-half rebound for Soriano, but as R.J. Anderson pointed out earlier in the month, pitchers have altered their approach to Soriano and his season-long slump shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs to Soriano and his numbers have declined across the board. Outside of RBIs, Updated ZiPS has him failing to reach the fantasy numbers he put up in 2007, when he played in 135 games. Soriano is on target for 155 games this year.

Brad Penny – The good news is that he pitches for a team that scores 5.16 runs per game and his FIP is 81 points lower than his ERA. The bad news is that his spot in the rotation is hardly guaranteed. He has been a decent option in deep mixed leagues or AL-only ones, but time appears to be running out. His first start after the All-Star break (5 IP, 6 ER) was not encouraging.

Jonny Gomes – A .304/.395/.549 slash line looks great for a player bound to see more playing time with the injury to Jay Bruce. But Gomes has a .397 BABIP and he is unlikely to maintain his 18.2 HR/FB ratio going forward. Also, the Cincinnati fan base turned on Adam Dunn for his propensity to strike out often. How will they treat a full-time Gomes who has a 32.4 percent K rate this season, which would look right in line with Dunn’s Reds career?