Notable Non-Tenders: Hitters

Saturday was the deadline for clubs to offer a contract to arbitration-eligible players. There were plenty of non-tenders yesterday. Let’s take a quick look at some of the more intriguing position players now hitting the open market. I included each player’s CHONE projection for the 2010 season.

Garrett Atkins (.275/.345/.440, .342 wOBA)

This 30 year-old righty batter has been billed in the past as a power-hitting third baseman. But when one considers his substandard D at the hot corner (career -5 UZR/150 at 3B) and adjusts for the context of Coors, Atkins isn’t all he’s cracked up to be:

Atkins’ Park Adjusted Batting Runs, by season:

2005: -2.1
2006: +38.5
2007: +13.1
2008: -2.6
2009: -16.3

Atkins isn’t the cipher that his 2009 numbers would suggest, as he suffered from a .247 BABIP. But his Isolated Power has dipped four years running: .228 in 2006, .185 in 2007, .165 in 2008, and just .116 in 2009.

John Buck (.223/.304/.399, .305 wOBA)

With the Jason Kendall era inexplicably beginning in Kansas City, Buck got the boot. The 29 year-old backstop has ample power for the position (career .171 ISO), though he struggles to make contact (26.1 K%). Buck posted a career-high .332 wOBA in 2009, but that figure is likely to regress next year. He posted a .309 BABIP in an ’09 season interrupted by a back injury, compared to a .283 career mark. As a slow-footed catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score) who pops the ball up a lot (12.2 IF/FB%), expect Buck to hit more around his career .304 wOBA.

(Update: Buck inked a 1-year, $2M deal with the Blue Jays.)

Ryan Church (.267/.339/.419, .332 wOBA)

Bothered by back problems and a pulled hamstring, Church didn’t hit with much authority in 2009 (.111 ISO). Injuries have plagued the 31 year-old the past two seasons, as post-concussion syndrome slowed him in 2008. But when he’s able to take the field, Church is a fairly useful player. He’s a career .272/.345/.441 hitter, displaying a decent eye (9.3 BB%) and average power for his position (.169 ISO). The former Expo, National, Met and Brave has done most of his damage against righty batters.

Jack Cust (.229/.365/.426, .349 wOBA)

Cust revived his career in Oakland, as he walked nearly 20% of the time and posted a near-.250 ISO over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The Three True Outcomes hero appeared to make a concerted effort to make more contact in 2009. His outside-swing percentage increased from roughly 14% in ’07-’08 to 17.5% (still well below the 25% MLB average), and his in-zone swing percentage climbed from 62% to 68% (65-66% MLB average). The result? Fewer K’s (relatively speaking: 36.1 K% in ’09, 39.5% career mark), and walks (15.3 BB% in ’09), as well as less pop (.177 ISO).

Ryan Garko (.273/.352/.444, .347 wOBA)

29 in January, Garko is a good, not great hitter at a position where players are supposed to mash. The average MLB first baseman swatted .277/.362/.483 in 2009 (.366 wOBA).

The former Indian has performed much better vs. southpaws during the course of his big league career. Here are Garko’s sOPS+ numbers against lefties and righties since 2007. sOPS+ compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, better than 100 indicates the hitter was above-average, less than 100 means he was below-average)

2007
vs. RHP: 123 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 128 sOPS+

2008
vs. RHP: 99 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 121 sOPS+

2009
vs. RHP: 97 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 126 sOPS+

Jonny Gomes (.247/.333/.487, .351 wOBA)

The archetypal slugger, Gomes bops (career .230 ISO) and plays defense like a guy wearing cinder blocks instead of cleats (-22.3 UZR/150 in the outfield). As such, his game might be more palatable to an A.L. club. In a fantastic environment for a pull-oriented righty, Gomes compiled a .373 wOBA for the Reds in 2009.

Kelly Johnson (.268/.346/.436, .341 wOBA)

Let’s compare Johnson’s 2008 and 2009 seasons:

2008: 8.7 BB%, 20.7 K%, .159 ISO, .344 BABIP, .346 wOBA
2009: 9.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, .165 ISO, .249 BABIP, .306 wOBA

The lefty batter (28 in February) walked a little more this past season, punched out less, and hit for a similar amount of power. Johnson’s BABIP, however, dipped nearly 100 points. Kelly’s XBABIP was .329 in 2008 and .313 in 2009. Here are what Johnson’s lines would have looked like in ’08 and ’09, based on his XBABIP figures (and this is assuming all additional hits were singles):

2008 actual line: .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA
2008 adjusted line: .272/.334/.431, .333 wOBA

2009 actual line: .224/.303/.389, .306 wOBA
2009 adjusted line: .288/.367/.453, .359 wOBA

Johnson is no great shakes at second base (career -7.4 UZR/150), but he can also man the outfield corners and looks to be a strong candidate to bounce back in 2010. He’s still a quality offensive player.