Archive for Johnny Cueto

Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.

David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.

Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.

Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.

Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.

Trade

Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.

Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.

B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.

Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.

Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.

Stock Up

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto displayed his superb talent last season, though his tendency to cough up homers and occasionally lose the strike zone dragged down his overall line. In 2009, he’s made progress on both fronts. In 39.2 frames, Cueto has a 3.13 FIP, the product of a 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.32 in ’08) and 0.45 HR/9. There’s certainly been some lucky bounces here to produce that 1.59 ERA: Cueto’s BABIP is .260, his strand rate is near 90% and his 4.2 HR/FB% is extremely low.

On the bright side, he’s shaved a little more than one walk per nine innings off his 2008 total (2.50 BB/9 this year, 3.52 in ’08). While his K rate (7.26 K/9) is down from last season (8.17), the overall net effect is positive (as Justin pointed out in the comments section, Cueto’s K/PA figure is slightly higher this year due to his efficiency). Cueto’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP), based on a pitcher’s K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, checks in at 4.34 (4.62 last season).

Jay Bruce, Reds

It’s the all-Reds edition of Stock Watch! A 22 year-old lefty with immense power, Bruce has adapted to major league pitching faster than most anticipated. With a .391 wOBA, 10 big flys and a sweet .262/.342/.570 line, Bruce has certainly been The Boss in 2009. Happily, his control of the strike zone (his biggest hurdle) has improved. Bruce has drawn a walk 10.1% of the time in 2009 (7.4% last year), whiffed less often (20.6% in ’09, 26.6% in ’08), and has cut his Outside-Swing percentage from 30.4% to 25.7%. In other words, he’s already among the best outfielders in the game, and he’ll only get better from here.

Carl Crawford, Rays

Crawford has probably stolen about six bases since I started typing this sentence. Tampa’s swift left fielder has been an absolute terror on the base paths in 2009, going a perfect 22-for-22 on stolen base attempts. With 3 more thefts, Crawford will match his total from an injury-marred 2008 season. If we use Tom Tango’s SB run value of +.19, then Crawford is closing in on half a win added in the stolen base department already.

Fortunately, Crawford is showing progress in other facets of his game as well. His Outside Swing% is down to 24.8%, from last year’s hacktastic 31.5% mark (24.4% MLB average). His 8.8% walk rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is the highest mark of his career. With 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, Crawford has been one of the ten most productive position players in the game.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Let’s give credit where it’s due: Jackson has been pretty darned effective in 2009. He came to Detroit with a reputation as a radar-gun curiosity who didn’t miss many bats or control the zone particularly well, but he’s making strides. Jackson isn’t a 2.60 ERA pitcher (duh), but his K/BB ratio is an impressive 3.18. With 7 K’s per nine and 2.20 BB/9, Jackson holds a 3.51 FIP. He’s looking more legitimate by the start.

David Wright, Mets

Wright’s early-season scuffle raised both panic and ire, but he’s just fine now. His wOBA is back up to .367, and he’s popped enough extra-base hits of late to raise his Isolated Power to .174. Wright is batting .364/.436/.697 in May. Hopefully, you didn’t sell low. One aspect of Wright’s game that is curiously diminishing is his stolen base ability. He was 34-for-39 in 2007, 15-for-20 in 2008 and just 5-for-10 in 2009.

Stock Down

Scott Kazmir, Rays

What happens to a control-challenged southpaw when he loses his ability to dominate hitters? Take a gander at Kazmir to find out. The 25 year-old’s walk rate has increased for a fourth straight season (4.97 BB/9), but he’s just not fooling batters the way he used to (7.11 K/9). Kazmir’s fastball velocity has dipped from 91.7 MPH in 2008 to just 89.9 MPH in 2009, and his hard, mid-80’s power slider is now more of a low-octane frisbee (80.4 MPH). With just 46.4% of his offerings crossing home plate (48.9% MLB average) and opponents making contact 84.3% of the time (75.1% career average), something is wrong with the Rays’ former ace.

Mike Aviles, Royals

Tony Pena Jr. might be on the DL, but Aviles has compensated by doing his best impression. After an unexpectedly productive rookie season, Aviles’ bat has flat lined in 2009. Impatient to a fault (2.9 BB%), the 28 year-old isn’t getting any favorable bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP). His nefarious .226 wOBA is fifth-worst among all batters, and he’s been nearly a win below replacement level with the lumber already. With lackluster play in the field as well (-12.6 UZR/150), Aviles has been an anchor on Kansas City’s hopes of staying competitive.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks

Never exactly known for his feats of strength (career .150 ISO and .431 SLG%), Jackson has been downright punchless this season. His microscopic .071 ISO ranks among the worst in the game. Jackson is not this bad, mind you: his .210 BABIP is incredibly low, so he should revert back more toward his usual level of production as the season goes on. The question is: is that enough? Underpowered as a first baseman, Jackson’s work in left field is still under review. Singles-hitting corner players aren’t exactly in vogue, so the 27 year-old is going to have to show some thump to do more good than harm to Arizona’s dwindling playoff chances.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves

Francoeur is this generation’s Joe Carter, compiling counting stats that mask the fact that he’s sort of a drag on his team’s offense. Frenchy continues to show next to no progress in terms of plate discipline, wildly hacking at 34.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Not coincidentally, his First-Pitch Strike% is a career-high 71 percent (57.6% MLB average). Francoeur has gotten behind 0-1 or put the ball in play on the first pitch more than any other batter in the majors. With a wretched .290 OBP and little pop (.136 ISO), he’s produced a .299 wOBA. Showing apparent apathy toward working the count, Francoeur is an absolute mess at the plate right now.

Ian Snell, Pirates

Snell scarcely resembles the guy who posted a 4.01 FIP during the 2007 campaign. After walking 2.94 batters per nine innings during that year, Snell’s control took a giant leap back in ’08 (4.87 BB/9) and continues to go south in 2009 (5.4 BB/9). His K rate, 8.18 during his first full season in the big in 2006, checks in at just 6.08 this year (the continuation of a four-year decline). He’s not fooling much of anyone, and has put just 44.3% of his pitches within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average). Snell will continue to take his turns on a pitching-starved staff, but he hasn’t pitched like an above-average starter in quite some time. His FIP is 5.33.

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto created quite a stir last spring. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for just $3,500, Cueto tore through the minors in short order before making a lasting first impression in the majors, punching out 18 batters in his first two starts. The 5-10, 185 pounder alternated between dominant and flammable the rest of the year, showcasing plenty of talent while also making apparent his need for a more refined approach.

After signing for .001 percent of what 2004 first-round pick Homer Bailey received, Cueto got his professional career started for the rookie-level GCL Reds in 2005. In 43 innings, Cueto posted solid peripherals (7.95 K/9, 1.67 BB/9), but his ERA was an inflated 5.02 thanks to an unusually high hit rate (10.26/9). Impressed with his work, the Reds had Cueto make one start for Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, where he would strike out six and walk two in six frames. The Dominican was still largely unknown at this point, as the 2006 Baseball America Prospect Handbook did not rank Cueto as one of Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects and did not include him in the team’s depth chart.

In 2006, Cueto would go a long way toward making himself known to the scouting community, dominating between stops at Low-A Dayton (Midwest League) and Sarasota. In 76.1 frames at Dayton, Cueto would whiff an impressive 9.67 batters per nine innings, while allowing just 1.77 BB/9. His Nintendo-level 5.47 K/BB ratio translated to a 2.65 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Feeling that Low-A hitters were no match for his low-90’s heat and power slider, Cincinnati promoted Cueto to Sarasota for the second half of the season. His strikeout rate declined somewhat (8.9 K/9) and he walked more batters (3.36 BB/9), but those are still dominant numbers for a 20 year-old in advanced A-Ball, and translated to a solid 3.90 FIP ERA in 61.2 IP. Upon reaching Sarasota, Cueto began generating far more flyballs than he previously had in his career. His GB% was 54% at Dayton, but fell to 39% at Sarasota. Cueto’s flyball-centric approach would continue in the coming years, but we’ll discuss that in more depth later on.

Following the season, BA took note of Cueto’s performance in a big way, as he surged from unranked to rating as the 4th-best prospect in the Reds system. While cautioning that “Cueto’s size doesn’t lend itself to durability”, BA praised his “free and easy three-quarters delivery” that pumped fastballs reaching 96 MPH.

Cueto’s 2007 campaign would make his breakout 2006 season look downright tame by comparison, as he sprinted though three different leagues and terrorized batters at every stop. Cueto opened the season back at Sarasota, where he posted rates of 8.27 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9. His 3.43 K/BB ratio bested his 2.65 showing at High-A in 2006, and translated to a tidy 2.86 FIP ERA in 78.1 IP. Upon being bumped up to AA Chattanooga of the Southern League, Cueto would go bonkers. In 61 frames, he posted a 2.89 FIP ERA and punched out a stunning 11.36 batters per nine innings, issuing just 1.62 BB/9. Cueto’s home run rate climbed from an extremely low 0.34/9 at Sarasota to a more reasonable 0.89/9 at AA, but his 7.00 K/BB ratio made him look like the Southern League’s version of Pedro Martinez. Promoted yet again, Cueto would throw 22 innings for AAA Louisville of the International League. In his first and only taste of the IL, Cueto posted a 21/2 K/BB ratio and a 3.02 FIP ERA.

Now firmly entrenched on prospect lists everywhere, Cueto once again ranked as Cincinnati’s 4th-best farm product following the 2007 season. BA also rated him as the 34th-best overall prospect in the minors, commending Cueto for pitching “like a 10-year major league veteran, not a fresh-faced 21 year-old.” Noting his work with former Reds star Mario Soto, BA commented that Cueto’s changeup had come a long way under the tutelage of the three-time all-star. In addition, Cueto also featured a “93-94 MPH fastball that touches 96” and a “tight 83-88 MPH slider.”

Following his eye-opening, three-affiliate tour-de-force, Cueto impressed Cincinnati brass enough to win himself a rotation spot in the big leagues this past season. The 22 year-old showed the ability to miss plenty of bats, striking out 8.17 hitters per nine frames. However, his control came and went (3.52 BB/9), and he had serious trouble with the long ball, surrendering 1.5 HR/9. Cueto’s K rate was the 14th-best among all major league starters, but his home run rate was the 5th-worst in the game. Only Brandon Backe, teammate Aaron Harang, Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan were burned by the big fly more often than Cueto.

Cueto has established himself as an extreme flyball pitcher, having generated groundballs just 38.6% of the time in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, his home ball ballpark severely punishes such tendencies. Courtesy of the 2009 Bill James Handbook, we find that Great American Ballpark had a HR Park factor of 128 between 2006 and 2008. GABP increased home run production 28% over the past three years. Suffice it to say, that does not bode well for a guy who puts the ball in the air so often.

Johnny Cueto remains an extremely talented young pitcher. His 93 MPH fastball and mid-80’s power slider can be nearly impossible to hit at times, as evidenced by his minuscule 76.9 Contact% (9th-best in baseball, sandwiched between Cole Hamels and Johan Santana). However, he may want to utilize his changeup more often in 2009, as he threw his slider over 32% of the time (the 5th-highest rate in the big leagues) while using the change just 6.7%. When he threw it, Cueto’s change was a nasty looking pitch, with horizontal movement that was identical to his fastball and a whopping 7 inches of vertical drop compared to his heater.

Cueto has the tools necessary to establish himself as one of the best starters in the big leagues. However, fantasy owners might need to experience some of his growing pains first, as he learns to use his full repertoire and limit the long-ball damage.