Archive for Johnny Cueto

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

On the surface, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto is busting out in 2010. The 24-year-old, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for a modest $3,500, dominated minor leagues hitters to the tune of 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a low-three’s FIP. Cueto rated as a top prospect on the basis of his sharp fastball/slider combo, and his major league ERA has fallen three seasons in a row — 4.81 in 2008, 4.41 in 2009 and a sparkling 3.42 this year. The sterling track record on the farm, the admiration he earned from scouts, the linear improvement in his MLB ERA — all of these signs point to a star emerging in Cincy.

I’m not sold, though. Take a look at some of Cueto key peripheral stats over the 2008-2010 seasons. I highlighted the most notable changes in, appropriately enough, red:

Cueto’s walk rate has fallen over the years, but his strikeout rate has declined considerably as well. He handed out a free pass to batters in 8.8% of their plate appearances in 2008, 8.2% in 2009 and 7.8% in 2010 (8.8% MLB average, according to Baseball-Reference). He’s doing a particularly good job of locating his 93 MPH fastball — According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cueto’s throwing the pitch for a strike 64.9% of the time this year (62-64% MLB average).

So, his control has gone from average to above-average. However, his SO/PA numbers have dropped a good deal — 20.6% in ’08, 17.8% in ’09 and 17% in ’10 (17.8% MLB average). Cueto has gotten in fewer 0-and-2 counts (24% in ’08, 19% in ’09 and 17% this year; the MLB average is 22%), and he’s struggling to put away batters when he gets into two-strike counts:

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 means that the pitcher is worse than most in that area. As you can see, Cueto has been between 23 and 37 percent worse than the average NL pitcher when he gets in two-strike counts.

In those two-strike situations, Cueto goes to his mid-80’s slider often:

Baseball America once dubbed that slider the best in the Reds’ system, but hitters haven’t been as impressed. Cueto’s breaking ball has been whiffed at just 10.4% of the time overall in 2010 (13.6% MLB average). He’s throwing the pitch for a strike 56% (63.4% MLB average). Cueto’s best whiff pitch, relative to the league average, is his fastball — 8.8% (the MLB average is 5-6%).

As Cueto’s expected FIP (xFIP) shows, the pared-down walk rate and lower punch out rate have essentially canceled each other out. His xFIP this season is over a run higher than his actual ERA. The main reasons that he’s got a pristine ERA and an ace-like win-loss record (8-2)? A very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. Chances are, Cueto won’t escape danger quite so adeptly in the second half of the season. He’s not pitching any better with men on base…

…and his HR/FB percentage is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers (Cueto’s career HR/FB% is 11.2). Cueto’s home, Great American Ballpark, actually increased homers per fly ball hit by 14 percent compared to a neutral venue over the period of 2006-2009. If Cueto had surrendered homers per fly ball hit at an average rate on the road (11 percent) and 12.5 percent at home (1.14 times the league average), he would have given up 16 home runs so far (1.3 HR/9) instead of his actual total of nine (0.73 HR/9).

Currently, Cueto throws his fastball for strikes and gets a solid number of whiffs with the pitch. However, his breaking ball lags behind, both in terms control and getting hitters to come up empty. It’s worth noting that he has gone to his changeup more often this season. It has been average in terms of strikes gotten (60.8%, 60.7% MLB average) but below-average in getting whiffs (11%, 12.6% MLB average). Right now, he doesn’t have a second pitch that can put away batters.

The purpose of this post is not to sharply criticize Johnny Cueto, or to suggest that he won’t reach ace status one day. The purpose is to point out that he’s not there yet. Fantasy players run the risk of falling prey to confirmation bias with a player like Cueto — he was supposed to be a star, and a quick glance at his numbers makes it seem as though he has reached that level. But, upon further inspection, Cueto’s still got work to do.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Johnny Cueto – He cleaned up in May (4-0, 3.00 ERA, 29 Ks in 33 IP) but struggled in his first June start. Overall, his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 4.09 ERA. Cueto has been above average in both Ks and WHIP and should be in everyone’s starting lineup with his two home games this week. He gets the Giants and Royals, two teams below average in runs scored, at the Great American Ball Park, where Cueto has a 3.19 ERA this season.

Edwin Jackson – In three of his last four starts, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start. But each of those QS were on the road and Jackson has two home starts this week. In Chase Field, he has a 5.44 ERA and has been prone to the gopher ball, having allowed eight of his 10 HR at home. While Atlanta is not a big HR team, St. Louis is above average and the Cardinals have done most of their damage on the road, where they have hit 32 of their 50 HR this season. The Cardinals game has potential for disaster, so leave Jackson inactive if you have other options.

Colby Lewis – After posting a 2.76 ERA in April, Lewis fell to a 4.11 mark in May and allowed 4 ER in 6.1 IP in his first June outing. Lewis’ success is due to his slider but he faces the Mariners, whose sparkplugs Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins both do well against the pitch, and the Brewers, who have two of the best slider hitters in Casey McGehee and Prince Fielder. The combination of struggling pitcher and bad matchups make Lewis a player to stash on your bench this week.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – This season has been a struggle for Matsuzaka because he puts too many runners on base and has been unlucky with his strand rate. He did not allow a walk in his last outing, a game where he notched 7 Ks and picked up the win. Matsuzaka squares off against the Indians and Phillies, two teams that are essentially league-average in walks. With the Red Sox having scored 72 runs in their last 12 games, if Matsuzaka can keep from walking the ball park he has a good shot to pick up Wins this week.

Kevin Slowey – With his last two outings, Slowey broke a streak of six consecutive starts where he failed to complete six innings. He combined for 13.2 IP in his last two games and allowed just 2 ER and 2 BB. Slowey gets two home starts this week. He has a good ERA at Target Field (3.79) despite trouble with the gopher ball. Slowey has allowed six of his eight HR at home. But both the Royals and the Braves are below average in hitting HR, so make sure Slowey gets the start this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Weaver, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, Lee, Gallardo, Cain, Hughes, Hamels, Haren, Pelfrey, Niemann, Marcum, Zito, Lilly, Lowe, Kazmir, Sheets, B. Anderson, Richard, Carmona, Wells, Floyd, W. Rodriguez, Francis, Medlen, Feldman, Galarraga, Volstad, LeBlanc, Hammel, Kendrick, Davies, Wakefield, Bergesen, Monasterios, Eveland, Huff, LeCure.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Eight pitchers and how they fared.

Baker – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.364 WHIP (2 starts)
Buchholz – Advised to start. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.69 ERA, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Harang – Advised to start. 2 W, 7 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP (2)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. 8Ks, 4.77 ERA, 1.412 WHIP (2)
Leake – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 0.68 ERA, 1.575 WHIP (2)

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto, 24, posted xFIP’s of 4.37 in 2008 and 4.57 in 2009. While by no means bad, those performances were mildly disappointing, given the way the right-hander shredded minor league hitters on his way to Cincy.

Perhaps Cueto is ready to take a step forward in his development as a major league starter. After owning the Pirates and Brewers in his last two starts, Johnny has 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 49 innings. He’s getting plenty of whiffs with his four-seam fastball (12 percent, double his MLB-average whiff rate on the pitch from 2009), and his slider is getting swings and misses 12.8 percent after eliciting whiffs 9.7 percent in ’09 (13.6 MLB average).

He’s getting behind in the count often, with a 52.2 first pitch strike percentage that’s well south of the 58-59% big league average, but Cueto’s contact and swinging strike rates have improved after he posted mediocre numbers in ’09. ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP for the rest of the season, with 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Brett Gardner, Yankees

Taken in the third round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, Gardner used his wheels to swipe bases at a high percentage clip (83.4 percent) and cover the gaps in the minors, while working the count for a 13.6 percent walk rate. Questions were raised about his bat, though, given Gardner’s lack of pop (.094 ISO) and 20 percent K rate.

While the 5-10, 185 pound lefty batter is unlikely to keep the .390 wOBA that he currently holds, Gardner has eased concerns about his offense. He’s drawing walks at a 10.3 percent rate this year, swinging at 20.2 percent of pitches outside of the zone (27.4% MLB average), and he’s making scores of contact (93.5 percent, compared to the 80-81% MLB average).

Gardner isn’t going to drive the ball with any frequency, but he controls the zone well and has proven to be one of the best stolen base thieves in the game: he’s 17-for-18 in 2010, and now has an 88.9 percent success rate in the big leagues. According to Baseball Prospectus’ base running numbers, Gardner has added nearly half a win with his legs (best in the majors), including about three runs on steal attempts. Add in his stellar outfield D, and Gardner might be the rarest of species: the unheralded Yankee.

Derek Holland, Rangers

After laying waste to Triple-A batters (38.2 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 8 runs allowed), Holland was recalled when Matt Harrison (biceps) was placed on the DL. While the 23-year-old lefty’s 2009 work with Texas looks grim at first glance (6.12 ERA in 138.1 IP), his underlying performance was much more promising: a 4.38 xFIP, with about seven whiffs per nine innings and 3.1 BB/9.

Holland has made two big league starts so far, and he has posted a 10/3 K/BB while allowing three runs. He has the stuff (low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve, low-80’s change), track record (9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America rated him #31 on its list of farm talents prior to 2009) to contribute in all fantasy formats.

John Lackey, Red Sox

Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract over the winter, Lackey has been lackluster this season. The long-time Angel dealt with right triceps and forearm injuries over the past couple of years and his contact rates had been rising, but his combination of solid K rates and quality control led to sub-four xFIPs from 2007-2009.

In Boston, Lackey has a middling 4.85 xFIP in 50 innings pitched. He’s striking out a career-worst 5.58 batters per nine frames, while walking a career-high 3.78 per nine. The 31-year-old’s contact rate has continued to increase: opponents have connected 85.8 percent in 2010, compared to an 80.4% career average, and Lackey is getting swinging strikes a paltry 5.6 percent (8.9% career average, right around the MLB average). He’s not locating well, either, with 45.7 percent of his pitches catching the plate (50.4% career average, 48-51% MLB average). Lackey’s curve has been worth +0.92 runs per 100 pitches during his career, but it has been thumped for a -1.96 runs/100 mark in 2010.

Owners are best off taking a wait-and-see approach with Lackey. His trade value is diminished right now, so it makes sense to hold on to him and hope that his stuff rebounds.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

When Milledge managed just a .308 wOBA and a .094 ISO in 2009, some were willing to forgive the shoddy offensive showing due to a fractured right ring finger that might have affected his bat control. However, the former Met and National is hitting like someone broke both his thumbs.

In 136 PA, Milledge has an anemic .286 wOBA, and he’s hitting for even less power than last season (.066 ISO). The 25-year-old continues to swing at plenty of junk pitches (30.3 outside swing percentage), and he’s chopping the ball into the dirt and popping up at an alarming rate. Milledge has a 57.4 GB% this year, and his infield/fly ball rate is 16 percent (twice the major league average). Couple the punch less hitting with…adventurous routes in left field, and it might not be long before the Pirates give Jose Tabata a shot.

Mitch Talbot, Indians

Freed from the Tampa pitching factory that had buried him on the organizational depth chart, Talbot was shipped to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach last December. Talbot’s got a 3.23 ERA in 47.1 IP for the Indians, but his peripherals suggest that bumpier days are ahead.

The 26-year-old right-hander showed strong ground ball tendencies on the farm (53.9 GB%), and he has continued to burn worms in the majors (49 GB%). Unfortunately, Talbot’s control has been ordinary (3.99 BB/9, with a 52.9 first pitch strike percentage) and he’s not fooling anyone. He has 3.61 K/9, his contact rate is near 90 percent and his swinging strike rate (4.1 percent) is less than half of the major league average. Talbot’s xFIP is 5.09. Unless he misses more bats or displays sharper control, expect that ERA to spike.

Last offseason, we took an in-depth look at Johnny Cueto’s rookie season with the Cincinnati Reds. The Dominican-born right-hander, equipped with low-90’s gas and a sharp slider, ripped through the minor leagues. With Cincy, Cueto tossed 174 innings, with a promising 4.37 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) in 2008. I concluded:

Johnny Cueto remains an extremely talented young pitcher. His 93 MPH fastball and mid-80’s power slider can be nearly impossible to hit at times, as evidenced by his minuscule 76.9 Contact% (9th-best in baseball, sandwiched between Cole Hamels and Johan Santana). However, he may want to utilize his changeup more often in 2009, as he threw his slider over 32% of the time (the 5th-highest rate in the big leagues) while using the change just 6.7%. When he threw it, Cueto’s change was a nasty looking pitch, with horizontal movement that was identical to his fastball and a whopping 7 inches of vertical drop compared to his heater.

Cueto has the tools necessary to establish himself as one of the best starters in the big leagues. However, fantasy owners might need to experience some of his growing pains first, as he learns to use his full repertoire and limit the long-ball damage.

One year later, it appears as though Cueto didn’t make a whole lot of improvements to his game. In 2008, he punched out 8.17 batters per nine innings, with 3.52 BB/9. This past year, the soon-to-be 24 year-old compiled a 4.57 xFIP in 171 frames, with 6.93 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. His ERA dipped from 4.81 to 4.41, but that was largely due to a decrease in BABIP (.309 to .296) and home run per fly ball rate (13.9 percent to 11.2 percent).

Cueto was among the toughest starters to make contact with during his rookie year, but hitters put the bat on the ball 82.7% of the time in 2009 (80-81% MLB average). His percentage of contact within the strike zone increased from 85.4% to 88.1% (87-88% MLB average).

While Cueto’s walk rate did fall, he actually located fewer pitches within the zone (51.2% in ’08, 47.6% in ’09; the MLB average is 49-51%) and garnered fewer first-pitch strikes (59.4% in ’08, 56.5% in ’09; 58-59% MLB average).

His pitch selection essentially remained the same. Cueto tossed a fastball about 62 percent of the time, while supplementing the heater with mid-80’s sliders (30 percent) and occasional changeups (8 percent). As Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool shows, the fastball and slider didn’t generate as many whiffs this past season:

2008

Fastball: 6.8 Whiff%
Slider: 15.8 Whiff%
Changeup: 11.9 Whiff%

2009

Fastball: 5.8 Whiff%
Slider: 9.7 Whiff%
Changeup: 14.1 Whiff%

Overall, Cueto’s swinging strike rate fell from an excellent 10.1 percent in 2008 to 7.5 percent (7.8 percent average for starting pitchers).

A look at Cueto’s Pitch F/X data shows that the slider didn’t show near as much horizontal break in 2009. In ’08, the pitch broke away from righty batters 2.6 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. In ’09, it broke away from same-handed hitters just 0.8 inches (the average for RHP is between 2-2.5 inches).

One could make the argument that late-season injuries dragged down some of these totals. According to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, Cueto dealt with a hip flexor injury in early August, then hit the DL with shoulder inflammation shortly thereafter. He also missed a late-season start with the flu. Here are Johnny’s month-by-month numbers:

He clearly struggled to locate his pitches in July and August.

Entering 2010, Cueto’s value is hard to gauge. Is he healthy? While his innings totals haven’t been abusive, Cueto has logged a significant workload in the majors at a young age. And, can he regain the bite on that once-plus slider, while honing his changeup? To this point, his fastball has been a slightly below-average offering (-0.3 runs per 100 pitches), with the slider also in the red at -0.09 runs/100. The neglected changeup checks in at an ugly -1.12.

Cueto is plenty talented and has time on his side. But in order to take the next step, he must show durability and develop those secondary offerings.

Even though this isn’t officially a mailbag post, the idea for this analysis came from someone with a question, who wishes to remain anonymous:

“I’m in a dynasty league, with no rules about rounds or dollar values for keepers. I have Slowey, Joba, and Cueto as potential keepers, but can only keep two of them. Which one should I trade or drop?”

Kevin Slowey only pitched through June, missing the last three months of the season after undergoing surgery on his wrist. Slowey looks poised to return by the beginning of the season, so his injury isn’t of much concern, especially in dynasty leagues. Slowey has superb control, so his WHIP should benefit from it. His high ERA in 2009 was inflated a bit by a fluky BABIP, but his home run rate will need to go down before he can be considered a top fantasy starter.

Joba Chamberlain is a hard player to project, because his role is up in the air. The Yanks are going to give him every opportunity to be a starter, and will be easing up on the “Joba Rules” next season. His strikeout rate as a starter is 8.40 per 9, while his K/9 as a reliever is 11.9. He also walks more batters as a starter, which is not a good sign of possible future success.

Johnny Cueto just finished up his second season as a starter for the Reds, lowering his ERA 40 points, and lowering his FIP 31 points. He did this by lowering his walk and home run rates, but he sacrificed strikeouts to do so. The Reds defense is good, so Cueto’s increased ground ball rate is another good sign. However, he doesn’t have much of an arsenal, and he looks to be maximizing his potential already, without much more of a ceiling to reach.

Of these three, I am keeping Slowey for sure. He is a safe bet to give you wins and a reasonable ERA and WHIP each year, with a decent strikeout total. This leaves the decision between Chamberlain and Cueto. Chamberlain still has more upside than Cueto does, so I would keep him as well. Cueto is a hard guy to cut loose, but you may be able to find a trade partner for him.

To sum it up, in a vacuum I’d rather keep Slowey and Joba over Cueto.

Here is the latest update to Week 25 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
DET – Jackson
CHC – Wells
TEX – Millwood
CIN – Cueto
ARI – Davis
BOS – Wakefield
MIL – Bush
TEX – McCarthy
CHW – Carrasco

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Beckett
CHC – Marquis
CHW – Floyd
CLE – Laffey
TEX – Nippert
ARI – Buckner

Rodriguez has two home starts against pitchers coming off injury/illness this week. Perhaps no elite pitcher has a bigger home/road split than Rodriguez. In Minute Maid Park, he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.979 WHIP. In road starts Rodriguez is 5-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.440 WHIP.

Jackson has allowed five earned runs in back-to-back starts. In his last five games he has a 6.03 ERA yet has gone 2-2 in that stretch.

Wells has also given up five runs in back-to-back starts but in the former outing, four of those were unearned. In his last eight starts, Wells has allowed five-or-more runs four times. He is 2-5 in those eight outings but his ERA is a respectable 3.83 in that stretch.

Millwood is 10-10 this season. Since 2004, he is exactly 63-63. This year the average ERA in the American League is 4.45 and since 2004 Millwood checks in with a 4.38 mark. Despite that average-ness, Millwood is enjoying a fortunate season in 2009. His 4.91 FIP is a career high while his 78.5 percent strand rate is the second-highest of his career.

Cueto had his start last week pushed back due to the flu and is now scheduled to go Tuesday against the Pirates. He finally broke a six-game losing streak on the last day of August and in his last three games before getting ill, Cueto had a 2.76 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 16.1 innings.

Davis has received two runs or less of support in 12 of his 31 games, which helps explain his 7-13 record despite a 4.01 ERA. He has five Quality Starts in his last seven games, yet is 0-3 in that stretch.

Wakefield is scheduled for two starts this week in his first action since receiving a cortisone injection in his spine on September 10th. The veteran knuckleball pitcher had been experiencing weakness in both his back and legs the past few weeks.

Bush is tied with Cueto for the major league lead with 14 HBP. It is even more impressive when you consider that Bush missed over two months with a torn triceps muscle. He does not even have enough innings to show up on the FanGraphs leader boards. Five times this season, Bush has hit multiple batters in a game, including plunking three hitters in an April game versus Pittsburgh.

McCarthy has been unimpressive in three starts since recovering from a stress fracture in his right shoulder. He has limited batters to a .203 average in those three games but has a 5.17 ERA. Two starts ago it was the long ball which did McCarthy in, as he gave up two homers in 6.1 innings against Cleveland. In his last outing he allowed seven baserunners in three innings against Oakland.

Carrasco has just one start this season for the White Sox, but is 5-1 with a 3.24 ERA as a reliever. His primary pitch is a cutter, although he also throws a four-seam fastball and a slider. Carrasco is not a good pickup for his two starts, as he has not exceeded four innings nor 67 pitches in an outing this season.

Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – Lester
COL – de la Rosa
CIN – Cueto
MIN – Blackburn
CLV – C. Carrasco

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

BOS – Wakefield
OAK – Cahill
TEX – Nippert
TOR – Tallet
CIN – Lehr
CLV – Huff
COL – Fogg
MIN – Gabino

Lester has just one decision in his last six outings but has put up a 2.97 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 39.1 innings in that span. Overall, Lester has been pitching better this year than a season ago both by FIP (3.10 – 3.64) and tRA (3.46 – 4.52) but has neither the wins nor the ERA from last year.

de la Rosa has experienced feast or famine recently. He has five Quality Starts in his last eight games and missed another by 1/3 of an inning in an outing where he allowed 0 ER and struck out nine. But in the other two games he permitted 13 ER in 11 IP. Overall de la Rosa remains a good start with 12 W already and a 9.20 K/9 mark.

Cueto is slated to be activated from the disabled list in time to start in Game Two of the Reds’ double header versus the Pirates. Cueto had been sidelined with a sore shoulder. He started the season on fire, going 8-4 with a 2.69 ERA but was 0-6 with a 10.64 ERA in his final eight games before hitting the DL.

Blackburn had an 8-4 record on July 10. Since then he has lost five consecutive decisions and has an 8.22 ERA over eight starts. Just further proof how hard it is to succeed in the majors with a low strikeout rate. Blackburn has a K/9 of 3.79, which is the second-worst mark in the majors.

Carrasco, one of the players acquired from the Phillies in the Cliff Lee trade, is slated to make his major league debut after going 5-1 at Triple-A Columbus following the deal. Carrasco has a good fastball and a plus pitch with his changeup. He pitched into the seventh inning in five of his six starts for Columbus and had 7 BB and 36 Ks in 42.1 IP.

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

A live-armed, 28 year-old lefty who has already been traded four times in his pro career, de la Rosa has intrigued (and frustrated) many big league franchises. However, the Monterrey native finally seems to have found a home in Colorado. de la Rosa’s 4.78 ERA looks just passable, but bear in mind he’s toiling in the best offensive environment in the majors, in front of some generally lackluster defenders (Jorge’s BABIP is .319, and the Rockies rank 24th in team UZR).

In 111 innings this year, de la Rosa has whiffed 9.08 batters per nine frames, with a career-low 3.81 BB/9. That’s not razor-sharp control, but it’s a considerable step above his career 4.68 BB/9. de la Rosa’s fastball continues to be nothing special (-0.84 Runs/100 pitches), but his secondary stuff is deadly. His mid-80’s slider has a +2.04 run value, with Jorge’s changeup coming in at +2.34. de la Rosa’s FIP sits at 3.70 for the season.

Brett Cecil, Blue Jays

The Jays have seemingly filtered through a couple dozen rotation options this season as the club deals with a rash of injuries to its hurlers, but Cecil may be the best of them all. A closer at the University of Maryland, Cecil was converted to the rotation on the basis of his sturdy 6-3 frame and four-pitch arsenal (91 MPH fastball, 85 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve, and 82 MPH change).

The former Terp tore through the minors, striking out over eight-and-a-half hitters per nine innings while posting a groundball rate in excess of 60 percent. Cecil’s control could use some sharpening (he walked about four per nine innings at AAA and has issued 3.66 BB/9 in the bigs), but he has had little problem fooling hitters at the highest level (7.47 K/9). Cecil has a 4.36 XFIP (based on K’s, BB, and a league average HR/FB rate) in 59 innings for Toronto in 2009. He’s basically a league-average starter right now, with considerable room for growth.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Pronk Smash! For better or worse, the Indians owe Hafner roughly $52 million from 2009-2012, meaning he would have to produce somewhere around 11.5 Wins Above Replacement over that period to be “worth” the cash (an average of 2.8-2.9 WAR a year). That’s a mighty tall order for a 32 year-old DH with a recent history of shoulder ailments, but Hafner has produced a .399 wOBA when able to take to the batter’s box in 2009. After seeing his ISO dip to a paltry .125 during an injury-riddled 2008, Hafner has bumped that number up to a healthy .259. Pronk is looking like an anchor on Cleveland’s book keeping, but there’s still some fantasy value to be had here.

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Someone needs to inform Mr. Beckham that this whole…Major League Baseball thing? It’s not supposed to be this easy. The 2008 first-rounder out of Georgia zoomed to the South Side after just 259 minor league plate appearances (.322/.375/.519), and he has performed admirably as a 22 year-old rookie. Beckham holds a .289/.368/.447 line in 175 PA, good for a .352 wOBA. Gordon has displayed very good control of the zone, walking 10.6% of the time while punching out just 15.1%. Beckham has plenty of value in keeper leagues, but you could certainly do worse in the here and now.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

For the majority of his major league career, Blanton had been an Average Joe. His combination of moderate quality (4.17 FIP) and quantity (he made between 32 and 34 starts from 2005-2008) made Blanton a pretty valuable commodity (averaging 3.45 WAR over ’05 to ’08), but the shape of his production has been different in 2009. The former Kentucky Wildcat has a career K rate of 5.52 per nine innings, but he has punched out 7.76 per nine this season while walking 2.59. Blanton had some early-season issues with the home run (his HR/FB% is still bloated at 14.5), but his XFIP (3.91) is a career-best.

How is he garnering the extra punch outs? It’s difficult to say, really. He’s not garnering a ton of outside swings (22.1 O-Swing%, 21.4% career average), his contact rate (84.3%) is about four percent above the MLB average and a near match for his career mark (84.8 percent). Joe’s called and swinging strike percentages are actually down from 2008. About the only discernable trend I can find is a gradual increase in the percentage of fouls Blanton has gotten off of his stuff. What say you, Phillies fans?

Stock Down

Rick Porcello, Tigers

There’s much to like about Porcello in the long term. He won’t turn 21 until December. He possesses a 91 MPH sinker that really bores in on the hands of righty batters, and has helped him generate grounders at a 56.1% clip. He also totes a mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup that are in the development stage, as well as a low-80’s slider that the Tigers basically had him scrap.

In the here and now, though, he still understandably has some things to work on. Porcello has located 47.9 percent of his offerings within the strike zone (below the 49.3% MLB average), with a First-Pitch Strike Percentage (55.5%) that’s also under the big league norm (58.1%). The 6-5 New Jersey prep product has dished out plenty of souvenirs (1.57 HR/9, 19.1 HR/FB%). Given his groundball tendencies, that doesn’t portend to be an issue in the long run. But it could be the product of command that seems to come and go. Porcello is nearly at the 100-inning mark, and the Tigers will likely tread cautiously when it comes to his workload.

Erik Bedard, Mariners

Sigh. I would imagine that by this juncture, Mariners fans get kinda twitchy just at the mention of Bedard’s name. Six years of team control over Adam Jones and Tillman, plus some decent work by closer George Sherrill was the high, high price of acquiring the Baltimore ace. So far, Bedard has tallied just 3 WAR for the M’s. The 30 year-old free-agent-to-be has turned in a typical season in 2009: tantalizing pitching (3.51 FIP in 83 IP) interrupted by a seeming avalanche of physical problems. The latest, shoulder inflammation, sends Bedard to the DL yet again. Now the Mariners likely can’t shop his services, and Bedard won’t bring back a draft pick this winter, either.

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

Coming up with the Dodgers, the junior LaRoche was a walks and doubles machine. He posted a tasty .310/.400/.538 line during his minor league career, which caught Pittsburgh’s eye enough to make him the principal player acquired in last year’s Bay-Manny swap. While few expected LaRoche to be a brute, over-the-fence threat in the majors, his lack of thump is becoming a bit disconcerting. He’s doing a nice job of controlling the zone in 2009 (8.7 BB%, 16K%), but Andy’s work has been bereft of pop. LaRoche’s ISO sits at just .117 for the season. To put that into context, the weak-hitting fellow to LaRoche’s left (Jack Wilson) has a .121 ISO this year. His fielding has improved (+4.3 UZR/150 at 3B), which will give him a little more leeway. But from an offensive standpoint, LaRoche has been pretty boring.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton missed part of the season following surgery to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle, and he still looks rusty at the dish. The 28-year-old lefty batter has hit just .228/.279/.402 in 201 PA, with a .299 wOBA. Josh has gradually become more of a free swinger since his career re-birth in Cincy a few years back:

2007: 26.9 O-Swing%, 56.7 F-Strike%
2008: 34.7 O-Swing%, 60 F-Strike%
2009: 36.3 O-Swing%, 63.5 F-Strike%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 58.1%, respectively)

Hamilton has walked just 6.6% of the time, with a 27.2% K rate. He’s hammering fastballs (+0.89 Runs/100 Pitches), but secondary stuff is giving him the heebie-jeebies (-1.32 for the slider, -1.79 for the curve, -3.33 for the change).

Johnny Cueto, Reds

That Cueto has regressed shouldn’t come as a total and complete shock:

April: 2.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP
May: 2.72 ERA, 4.15 FIP
June: 3.60 ERA, 4.79 FIP

..But Johnny has turned in a pretty rough July (7.61 ERA, 5.97 FIP) in which his 20008 tater problems have re-appeared with a vengeance (1.90 HR/9 this month). He’s certainly been hit-unlucky (.393 BABIP), but Cueto has also issued nearly 5 walks per nine innings.