Archive for John Lackey

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto, 24, posted xFIP’s of 4.37 in 2008 and 4.57 in 2009. While by no means bad, those performances were mildly disappointing, given the way the right-hander shredded minor league hitters on his way to Cincy.

Perhaps Cueto is ready to take a step forward in his development as a major league starter. After owning the Pirates and Brewers in his last two starts, Johnny has 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 49 innings. He’s getting plenty of whiffs with his four-seam fastball (12 percent, double his MLB-average whiff rate on the pitch from 2009), and his slider is getting swings and misses 12.8 percent after eliciting whiffs 9.7 percent in ’09 (13.6 MLB average).

He’s getting behind in the count often, with a 52.2 first pitch strike percentage that’s well south of the 58-59% big league average, but Cueto’s contact and swinging strike rates have improved after he posted mediocre numbers in ’09. ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP for the rest of the season, with 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Brett Gardner, Yankees

Taken in the third round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, Gardner used his wheels to swipe bases at a high percentage clip (83.4 percent) and cover the gaps in the minors, while working the count for a 13.6 percent walk rate. Questions were raised about his bat, though, given Gardner’s lack of pop (.094 ISO) and 20 percent K rate.

While the 5-10, 185 pound lefty batter is unlikely to keep the .390 wOBA that he currently holds, Gardner has eased concerns about his offense. He’s drawing walks at a 10.3 percent rate this year, swinging at 20.2 percent of pitches outside of the zone (27.4% MLB average), and he’s making scores of contact (93.5 percent, compared to the 80-81% MLB average).

Gardner isn’t going to drive the ball with any frequency, but he controls the zone well and has proven to be one of the best stolen base thieves in the game: he’s 17-for-18 in 2010, and now has an 88.9 percent success rate in the big leagues. According to Baseball Prospectus’ base running numbers, Gardner has added nearly half a win with his legs (best in the majors), including about three runs on steal attempts. Add in his stellar outfield D, and Gardner might be the rarest of species: the unheralded Yankee.

Derek Holland, Rangers

After laying waste to Triple-A batters (38.2 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 8 runs allowed), Holland was recalled when Matt Harrison (biceps) was placed on the DL. While the 23-year-old lefty’s 2009 work with Texas looks grim at first glance (6.12 ERA in 138.1 IP), his underlying performance was much more promising: a 4.38 xFIP, with about seven whiffs per nine innings and 3.1 BB/9.

Holland has made two big league starts so far, and he has posted a 10/3 K/BB while allowing three runs. He has the stuff (low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve, low-80’s change), track record (9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America rated him #31 on its list of farm talents prior to 2009) to contribute in all fantasy formats.

John Lackey, Red Sox

Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract over the winter, Lackey has been lackluster this season. The long-time Angel dealt with right triceps and forearm injuries over the past couple of years and his contact rates had been rising, but his combination of solid K rates and quality control led to sub-four xFIPs from 2007-2009.

In Boston, Lackey has a middling 4.85 xFIP in 50 innings pitched. He’s striking out a career-worst 5.58 batters per nine frames, while walking a career-high 3.78 per nine. The 31-year-old’s contact rate has continued to increase: opponents have connected 85.8 percent in 2010, compared to an 80.4% career average, and Lackey is getting swinging strikes a paltry 5.6 percent (8.9% career average, right around the MLB average). He’s not locating well, either, with 45.7 percent of his pitches catching the plate (50.4% career average, 48-51% MLB average). Lackey’s curve has been worth +0.92 runs per 100 pitches during his career, but it has been thumped for a -1.96 runs/100 mark in 2010.

Owners are best off taking a wait-and-see approach with Lackey. His trade value is diminished right now, so it makes sense to hold on to him and hope that his stuff rebounds.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

When Milledge managed just a .308 wOBA and a .094 ISO in 2009, some were willing to forgive the shoddy offensive showing due to a fractured right ring finger that might have affected his bat control. However, the former Met and National is hitting like someone broke both his thumbs.

In 136 PA, Milledge has an anemic .286 wOBA, and he’s hitting for even less power than last season (.066 ISO). The 25-year-old continues to swing at plenty of junk pitches (30.3 outside swing percentage), and he’s chopping the ball into the dirt and popping up at an alarming rate. Milledge has a 57.4 GB% this year, and his infield/fly ball rate is 16 percent (twice the major league average). Couple the punch less hitting with…adventurous routes in left field, and it might not be long before the Pirates give Jose Tabata a shot.

Mitch Talbot, Indians

Freed from the Tampa pitching factory that had buried him on the organizational depth chart, Talbot was shipped to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach last December. Talbot’s got a 3.23 ERA in 47.1 IP for the Indians, but his peripherals suggest that bumpier days are ahead.

The 26-year-old right-hander showed strong ground ball tendencies on the farm (53.9 GB%), and he has continued to burn worms in the majors (49 GB%). Unfortunately, Talbot’s control has been ordinary (3.99 BB/9, with a 52.9 first pitch strike percentage) and he’s not fooling anyone. He has 3.61 K/9, his contact rate is near 90 percent and his swinging strike rate (4.1 percent) is less than half of the major league average. Talbot’s xFIP is 5.09. Unless he misses more bats or displays sharper control, expect that ERA to spike.

Here is the latest update to Week Six 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

BOS – John Lackey
FLA – Ricky Nolasco
TEX – Colby Lewis
STL – Brad Penny
TOR – Brandon Morrow
ANA – Joel Pineiro
HOU – Brett Myers
DET – Rick Porcello
NYM – Jonathon Niese
KCR – Brian Bannister
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

After getting roughed up by the Rays, Lackey has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts, picking up two wins in the process. His GB/FB ratio is essentially where it’s been the past few years, but Lackey is striking out fewer batters and issuing more walks. His 1.50 K/BB ratio is the worst of his career. Lackey is surviving thanks to a lower LD% and a lower HR/FB rate. He has posted a lower than average HR/FB rate in six of his eight seasons in the majors and so far this year it checks in at 7.1 percent.

Six of the seven homers allowed by Nolasco this year have come in his home park, where he has pitched 16 innings. The rest of the Marlins’ staff has allowed 7 HR in 135 IP at Sun Life Stadium. The average velocity on Nolasco’s fastball is down 1.1 mph and his K/9 has fallen from 9.49 to 7.26. A 1.82 BB/9 has kept his FIP and xFIP right around his ERA of 4.08, which checks in slightly better than the NL average of a 4.20 ERA.

A wicked slider which he throws over 30 percent of the time has helped make Lewis’ second stint in the majors go significantly better than his first. That has led to a 31.4 O-Swing% and a 10.24 K/9 rate. Somewhere on the West Coast, Carson Cistulli cracks a smile over this.

Last year Penny had a 1.13 GB/FB rate but it is back up to 1.49 this year. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan gets all of the credit for the turnaround yet Penny had a 1.63 GB/FB rate last year with the Giants. Penny is posting the lowest walk rate of his career (1.77 BB/9) and perhaps Duncan deserves credit for that. Still, Penny is pitching better than his peripherals, with an xFIP nearly two runs higher than his ERA.

In his last four outings, Morrow is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and has 34 Ks in 24.1 IP. The overall numbers still look bad because of the brutal first two starts but you should definitely check the waiver wire to see if he is still available in your league.

Pineiro still has tremendous GB and BB rates, so why is his ERA sitting at 5.30 or nearly two runs a game higher than last season? Check out that 15.6 HR/FB rate, over twice as high as last year’s mark. Pineiro has also been unlucky with a .351 BABIP. The bottom line is that his xFIP of 3.89 is just slightly higher than last year’s 3.68.

This week Myers has two road starts. He has a 2.57 ERA on the road this year and an 0-2 record.

The K/9 for Porcello has risen from 4.69 to 5.70 this season. Unfortunately his BABIP has risen from .281 to .396 and combine that with a 58.4 LOB% and you get a 7.50 ERA. Porcello’s FIP and xFIP are right in line with last year, when he posed a 3.96 ERA and 14 Wins.

Omar Minaya eschewed adding a free agent pitcher in the offseason, saying he liked his internal candidates as much as what was available after Lackey signed. Niese is trying his best to make Minaya look good and has a 3.60 ERA after six starts despite a .382 BABIP.

This season Bannister has made three starts during the day and three at night. He is 1-0 with a 2.41 ERA in the sunshine and 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA under the lights. In his career, Bannister is 18-8 with a 4.06 ERA in day games and 13-32 with a 5.26 ERA at night.

Monasterios was originally signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela. He was shipped to Philadelphia in the Bobby Abreu deal and was underwhelming in three-plus years in the Phillies’ farm system. This year he was selected by the Mets in the Rule 5 draft and then sold to the Dodgers. He has been effective in relief for Los Angeles and gets bumped into the rotation as Los Angeles looks everywhere for help for its rotation. However, his xFIP is two full runs higher than his ERA.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

According to MLB.com’s Ian Browne and Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman, free agent RHP John Lackey has signed a five-year, $85 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.

The 31 year-old has been remarkably consistent, posting xFIP marks of 3.99 in 2007, 3.88 in 2008 and 3.92 in 2009. Lackey has punched out 7.2 batters per nine innings during his big league career, while also displaying plus control with 2.64 BB/9.

Lackey comes at batters with a 90-92 MPH fastball, a low-80’s slider, a high-70’s curveball and a seldom-used low-80’s changeup. His heater is a decent pitch (+0.19 during his career). But his breaking stuff shines. The 6-6, 245 pound righty’s slider has been worth +0.29 runs per 100 tosses, while his curve checks in at +1.03. Lackey’s reluctance to pull the string seems well-grounded (-1.3 runs/100 for the changeup).

Big John’s recent opponent contact rates are middle-of-the-pack (80-81 percent, right around the league average), and his 8.55 swinging strike percentage over the past three seasons is above-average, but not elite (the average for starters is 7.8 percent).

Lackey’s contact rates have been trending upward lately, too:

In-Zone Contact%
2005: 86.3
2006: 88.9
2007: 90.6
2008: 91.3
2009: 91.3

(87-88% MLB average)

Overall Contact%
2005: 76.5
2006: 79.4
2007: 80.3
2008: 81.5
2009: 80.4

Because of the extra contact, it would be wise to expect a few less punch outs in the years to come.

Where Lackey really shines is getting ahead of the hitter: his first-pitch strike percentage from 2007-2009 is 64.5%, which ranks 5th among starters during that time period. He’s adept at putting the hitter in an 0-1 hole, but then he tends to rely on the batter’s impatience. Lackey’s overall percentage of pitches within the strike zone is just 46.5% since 2007, compared to the 49-51% MLB average. Hitters are chasing a lot of those out-of-zone offerings, though: Lackey’s outside-swing percentage from 2007-2009 is 29.7%. That ranks 6th among starters over that period.

Lackey averaged nearly 211 innings pitched per season from 2003-2007, but he has experienced some health issues over the past two years. He hit the DL with a triceps strain in 2008, delaying the start of his season until mid-May and limiting him to 163.1 IP. In 2009, Lackey suffered a right forearm strain that also kept him from toeing the rubber until the middle of May. He tossed 176.1 frames this past season.

The move from Angel Stadium to Fenway Park will likely hurt Lackey’s numbers a bit:

Three-year park factors for Angel Stadium and Fenway (data courtesy of ESPN.com)

Angel Stadium
Runs:1.04
HR: 1.01
H: 1.03
2B: 1.06
3B: 0.72

Fenway Park
Runs: 1.11
HR: 0.90
H: 1.06
2B: 1.44
3B: 0.87

Angel Stadium has played like a slight hitter’s park over the past few years, increasing run scoring by four percent. Fenway, meanwhile, has inflated run scoring by 11 percent compared to a neutral ball park. Homers are hard to come by for righties, but the Green Monster is a doubles-making machine.

If the terms of the deal are correct, then the Red Sox are valuing Lackey as something like a four WAR per season pitcher moving forward. It’s a mark he easily surpassed from 2005-2007, and basically matched in 2009. But there are certainly risks inherent in handing out a five-year deal to a guy who hasn’t been healthy enough to throw a pitch in April in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps the biggest mistake teams make is handing out free agent deals based on past performance.

Overall, Lackey’s contract seems like a gamble by Boston. But given the club’s deep coffers and position on the win curve, it’s defensible. As Dave Cameron explained, each additional win added to a team on the cusp of the playoffs is extremely valuable. The Rays have an absurd collection of young talent and a canny front office. The Yankees are coming off a World Series win. A.L. East baseball is not for the faint of heart.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to draft Lackey relatively high entering next season. Luckily, you only have to worry about how he’ll perform in 2010, not 2014. His value takes a slight ding with the move to Fenway, and his health problems are mildly disconcerting. But Lackey still looks like a top 30-40 starter for 2010.

Here is the latest update to Week 24 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
COL – Jimenez
TEX – Feldman
NYY – Chamberlain
SD – Correia
BOS – Matsuzaka
WSX – Garcia
KAN – Tejada

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

TAM – Niemann
STL – Smoltz
PIT – Duke
TEX – McCarthy
NYY – Gaudin
BOS – Byrd
NYM – Parnell
WSX – Torres
SD – LeBlanc
KAN – Chen

Lackey has gone 2-0 with a 0.35 ERA in his last three games. In that span he has 3 BB, 17 SO and 0 HR in 26 IP. He has road starts at Boston and at Texas. Lifetime, Lackey has ERAs above 6.00 in both places. In 15 games in Arlington his ERA is 6.12 while it is 6.34 in eight starts in Fenway.

Jimenez has a tweaked groin, which pushed back his scheduled start last Saturday to Monday. Prior to the injury, Jimenez has been on fire. In his last 11 games, all Quality Starts, he is 9-2 with a 2.60 ERA.

Feldman has won seven consecutive decisions. He is 16-4 overall and leads the American League in W. Feldman has two home starts this week, but he has been a better pitcher this year on the road. He is 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA at home, nearly two runs higher than his road ERA.

Chamberlain was cruising along with an 8-2 record before the latest version of the “Joba Rules” were unfurled. In his last six games, Chamberlain is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA. He has pitched exactly three innings in each of his last three starts, which kills his chances to pick up any more wins.

Correia has won three of his last four decisions. In his last nine games, he is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA with 3 HR allowed in 56.1 IP. Correia has a game both at home and on the road this week. In Petco Park, Correia has a .256 BABIP and a 3.68 ERA. On the road those numbers are .357 and 5.09, respectively.

Matsuzaka, who has been out since June 19th with a strained shoulder, is slated to be activated and start Tuesday. When healthy and active in the majors this season, Matsuzaka found things a lot tougher than he had in 2008. But few people expected him to repeat his 80.6 percent strand rate from last season.

Garcia was knocked around in his first start this season but has hurled Quality Starts in four straight outings since then, including two against the Red Sox and one against the Yankees. This week brings a road start in Seattle and a home game against the Royals.

Tejada has moved into the rotation for his last two games and has not allowed a run in 11.1 IP. He also has 14 strikeouts in that span. Tejada still has issues with command (5.74 BB/9) but a double-digit SO/9 rate will always get a fantasy player’s attention.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ANA – Lackey
TB – Shields
WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
ARZ – D. Davis
SEA – Bedard
OAK – Braden
TEX – Padilla
STL – Wellemeyer
OAK – B. Anderson
TOR – Mills

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

TB – Garza
LAD – Kuroda
WSX – Contreras
SEA – Vargas
OAK – G. Gonzalez
TEX – Holland

Lackey has a career high .337 BABIP and a career low 69 percent strand rate. But he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his last eight starts and has two home starts this week.

Shields also gets two home starts this week. He has 4 W and a 3.18 ERA at Tropicana Field this year. He has very similar rate stats to a year ago but in 2008 he averaged 4.92 runs per game and went 14-8. This year he receives 4.11 runs per game and his record is 6-6.

Buehrle has a .260 BABIP and a 78.4 percent strand rate. That’s led to a 4.09 FIP compared to a 3.09 ERA and an overall record of 8-2 despite HR, SO and BB rates the same or worse as last year’s 15-12, 3.79 ERA season.

Dempster has been unable to repeat the magic from his 2008 season. He is still performing at better than his career averages in most metrics but the 32-year old is a .500 pitcher. His fastball, which was such a good pitch for him last year, checks in at -10.4 according to Pitch Type Values.

Davis gets two home starts which is normally a good thing. But the big lefty is just 1-5 in Chase Field this year, where he has allowed eight of his 11 home runs.

Bedard is slated to return on Tuesday after missing a month with a sore shoulder. He threw a simulated game on Friday and Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu was impressed with the results of the 54-pitch outing.

Braden has gone at least five innings in each of his 17 games this season. He changes speeds, keeps the ball in the park (0.59 HR/9) and does not hurt himself with walks (2.37 BB/9). Braden’s best pitch is his changeup, which has an average speed over 15 mph slower than his fastball and one that checks in with a 7.8 Pitch Type Value.

Padilla is throwing as hard as ever but has the worst strikeout rate of his career. He has a career average of 6.15 SO/9 and last season posted a 6.68 rate. But in 2009 it is down to a 4.86 mark.

Wellemeyer has a .336 BABIP and it is lefty batters doing most of the damage. LHB have a .342/.417/.595 mark against him this year. Batting against Wellemeyer turns the average lefty batter into Prince Fielder. But oddly enough, Fielder has a .200/.333/.200 line against Wellemeyer this season in six at-bats.

Anderson averages 91.8 mph with his fastball but his slider is his best pitch. Anderson throws his slider 31 percent of the time, which would be the sixth-highest figure in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.

Mills has had good strikeout numbers throughout the minors and in his brief major league career. But he is hardly overpowering, instead he features a changeup as his strikeout pitch. Mills allowed a 43.5 percent fly ball rate at Dunedin last year and it was 48.3 percent when he was promoted to New Hampshire. This year in his brief tenure with Toronto, he has a 74.1 percent fly ball rate.

John Lackey’s ERA was the highest it has been since 2004, and his FIP was even higher. Should you be worried?

No.

In 2008, Lackey posted a 3.75 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. However, much of this can be attributed to an extremely high HR/FB. In fact, 15.3% of Lackey’s fly balls became homers last year, as compared to 7.3%, 5.7%, 6.6% and 9.0% over the previous four years, respectively. Lackey’s career HR/FB is 9.3% – just a tick under league average, and there’s no reason to think he suddenly became more homer-prone in 2008.

Lackey’s strikeout rate remained identical to his 2007 rate (and remember, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 2007), as he struck out 7.16 batters per nine in 08 and 7.19 per nine in 07. His walk rate also remained the same: 2.20 walks per nine in 08, 2.09 per nine in 07. Both his strikeout and walk rate have been trending down since 2005, and it appears that they have stabilized over the last two years.

Lackey’s batted ball data from 2008 was essentially in line with his career averages: batters hit line drives 20.2% of the time, ground balls 45.1% of the time and fly balls 34.7%. His career averages in these categories are 21.2% LD, 43.0% GB and 34.7% FB. Additionally, his pitch velocity and selection appear to be unchanged.

If you want to find something to be concerned about, it is worth noting that the amount of swinging strikes that Lackey has induced has gone down for four years running. In 2005, batters swung and missed at 10.2% of Lackey’s pitches; in 06 that fell to 9.7%, then 8.8% in 07 and 8.5% this year. This is still above average (league average for starters is 7.5%), but the downward trend is worrisome.

Overall, however, that’s the only warning sign for 2009, and it’s a relatively minor one at that. Lackey had a high LOB% in 2008 – he stranded 80.2% of the runners who reached base – and that number should regress towards his career average of 73.3%. However, that regression will likely be negated by the regression he should experience in his home run rate as well.

Lackey’s ERA probably won’t be 3.01 like it was in 2007, but it’s unlikely to be any higher than the 3.75 of 2008. A return to his 2005-2006 level of ERA is most likely. Lackey’s biggest problem may be the team around him, as I believe the Angels are in for a (perhaps serious) decline in 2009, one that could leave Lackey’s win total wanting. That, and his relatively low strikeout rate, probably prevent him from being a top-10 fantasy starter, but his durability and general skills probably leave him comfortably in the 11-20 range.

He’s still a very good pitcher, but his name recognition may slightly outpace his performance (even with an expected regression in HR/FB), perhaps leaving him a little overvalued in some leagues.