Archive for Joe Saunders

Nine teams currently have a wRC+ over 100 for the season. Anytime you’re looking to stack hitters from the same team, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to just pick a team or two out of that group of nine with the best matchup for the day. But this is just a quick reminder that some of those top offensive teams are much better against pitchers of a certain handedness.

For example, the Blue Jays are tied with the Angels for the best wRC+ in the league at 112. But the Jays have a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which they see two-thirds of the time, and have just a 102 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. The simple fact that the majority of pitchers are right-handed is what makes them the best offense in the league. If the majority of pitchers were left-handed, the Jays total wRC+ might be something like 104. Long story short, they’re not as good of a stacking option against lefties. Which makes sense because their lineup features left-handers Adam Lind, Juan Francisco and Colby Rasmus as well as two switch hitters who are better from the left side of the plate in Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera.

Here is a chart showing you how the top nine offensive teams fare against pitchers of either handedness.

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Hey, sometimes you have to dig deep, right?

If you’re in a hole in innings pitched and/or you’re scrambling for wins any way you can find them, there are a couple names in Henderson Alvarez and Joe Saunders who are extremely likely to be available in your leagues. And as it happens, they’ve been pitching pretty decent. Should you take the risk?

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When I look at the Seattle Mariners projected pitching rotation, the 1987 Chicago Bulls leap to mind. Except Felix Hernandez really doesn’t even have a Charles Oakley behind him. And I guess that makes Joe Saunders Dave Corzine. Two sentences and a digression already. The fact is, the Seattle Mariners have a bonafide star, and then they have what amount to a gaggle of #4 starters and then a handful of question marks.

I don’t need to tell you much about Felix Hernandez. I have a suspicion that this whole MRI-elbowgate thing relative to his record-setting contract might move him down a slot or two for the suspicious type. And yes, I’ll be curious about his velocity in Spring Training. But chances are, you’ll be able to comfortably hang your hat on The King to carry your staff should you be fortunate enough to procure his services. From there, it gets kind of interesting.

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If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Jose Reyes – Those owners who gambled on Reyes might be ready to cut bait. In addition to his .232 AVG, Reyes’ walk rate is less than half of what it was a season ago, he has yet to hit a single HR after reaching double-digits in his last three healthy seasons and he ranks fifth in the majors with a 20.0 IFFB%. But since returning to the leadoff spot 10 games ago, Reyes is batting .283 with 8 R and 3 SB. It’s too late to get him for pennies on the dollar but RoS ZiPS shows him with 30 SB the rest of the way. And those will be worthy paying for if they come with above average R and AVG marks.

Wandy Rodriguez – His BB/9 is up, while his K/9 and HR/9 are down from a year ago. It adds up to an ERA 1.31 higher than it was in 2009 and an xFIP 76 points above last year’s mark. Rodriguez has struggled this year with his curveball. The pitch which had been such a strong offering for the previous three seasons now checks in with a wCB/C of -2.55, a change of 4.5 runs from 2009. It is hard to imagine his curve being so poor the rest of the season – the most likely scenarios are that he either improves with it from here on out or ends up on the DL. If his back can hold up, Rodriguez is a good buy-low candidate.

Ervin Santana – His numbers look solid overall but Santana has pitched very well after getting roughed up in his first two starts of the year. He allowed 9 ER in his first 11.2 IP but since then Santana has given up 19 ER in 57.1 IP for a 2.98 ERA. While his average FB velocity is still down from his big 2008 season, Santana is getting good mileage with his slider. On Tuesday’s start against the Blue Jays, Santana got 14 swinging strikes with his slider. His xFIP and RoS ZiPS both show Santana as a sell candidate but with each start he looks further removed from 2009’s 5.03 ERA and closer the 2008 version, even without the great fastball.

SELL

Adrian Beltre – Many people expected Beltre to bounce back in 2010 with his move to Fenway Park. Safeco Field suppressed power from RH hitters and many thought that Beltran would at least get back to his mid-20s HR power, if not more than that. But Beltre has a career-low 28.9 FB%, making a big HR season virtually impossible. Right now Beltre’s value is tied up in his .327 AVG, which is the result of his .381 BABIP. Beltre has topped .300 just once in his career. He has a .293 lifetime BABIP and his career-best is the .325 he posted in 2004.

Alex Rios – He has rebounded nicely from last year’s dismal performance and is on pace for 34 HR and 53 SB. But Rios has a career-high 14.3 HR/FB rate and a 45.7 FB%, also a personal-best. And not only is Rios hitting more fly balls, he has a 53.9 FB% in his home park, where he has hit six of his nine HR. Perhaps Rios has a completely different approach at the plate at home than he does on the road. But it is more likely to be a fluke. Odds are against Rios hitting 34 HR and even the 24 that Updated ZiPS projects might be optimistic. Clearly, at age 29, a career-high in HR would not be unexpected, but do not expect him to shatter his previous best of 24 HR. Also, Rios’ career-high in SB is 32 and in his other five full seasons in the majors, he has averaged 17 SB per year.

Alfonso Soriano – George Steinbrenner once dubbed Dave Winfield “Mr. May” and that moniker might work for Soriano, too. He is batting .347 with 6 HR and 16 RBIs this month with six games left to play. Lifetime, Soriano has 67 HR in May, the most of any month in his career. Soriano currently has a .363 BABIP and a .306 ISO, both of which would easily be career-bests. Fantasy owners likely got Soriano at a huge discount after his poor season in 2009. While they should not just give him away, neither should his owners look to get too greedy with a player who has missed 98 games the past two seasons.

HUNCH

Joe Saunders – I am a big Saunders fan because he consistently delivers Wins despite poor peripherals. Even with a 3-6 record this year, Saunders has a 51-28 lifetime record. After starting the season 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA, Saunders has seemingly gotten back on track in his last four games, going 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. I like him to better his RoS ZiPS projection of a 9-8 record and 4.84 ERA.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 25.

Joe Blanton – In the second of back-to-back starts versus the Nationals, Blanton rebounded from allowing eight runs to pitch six shutout innings. This week he faces two teams he has not seen recently, with both starts coming on the road. While the gopher ball has been a problem this season for Blanton, he has allowed them in bunches both home and away. If you have the depth to sit Blanton, consider giving him this week off.

David Purcey – This season has been a rough go for Purcey so far, but he has favorable matchups this week. He has two home starts and does not go up against a top pitcher in either outing. First up is the Orioles, who have struggled this year versus southpaws. Next are the Mariners, making the cross-country trek. I like his chances to post a win this week and Purcey is someone to consider picking up from the waiver wire, as he is owned in only six percent of CBS Sports leagues.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – The strikeouts may be inconsistent, but Rowland-Smith has otherwise been a reliable pitcher lately. He has authored a Quality Start in each of his last five outings, with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.098 WHIP. Yet during this hot streak, Rowland-Smith has two losses and a no-decision. On top of that, he has two starts this week in the Eastern time zone. Expect one really bad outing and put him on the bench this week.

Joe Saunders – On June 24th, Saunders was 8-4 and on top of the world, continuing to confound the experts who predicted a collapse due to weak peripherals. And then it all came crashing down. In his next eight starts, Saunders went 1-3 with a 9.63 ERA and the experts just nodded their heads, welcoming the regression they spent nearly two years predicting. But in his last five games, Saunders is back to his winning ways. He is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA since returning from a trip to the disabled list due to tightness in his shoulder. I do not care if it goes against all statistical common sense, I make sure Saunders is active for his two home starts this week. Maybe he is the exception that proves the rule.

Barry Zito has 12 consecutive starts in which he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer, with a 2.36 ERA in that span. He lowered his overall ERA from 5.01 to 3.94. Zito is also picking up a few more strikeouts lately. In his last outing he fanned nine in seven innings. Earlier in the season Zito was pitching much better at home but he has closed the gap considerably. Start him this week with one home and one road game.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Greinke, Beckett, J. Johnson, Cain, Marquis, Pineiro, Floyd, Pettitte, Lowe, de la Rosa, Kuroda, Blackburn, Looper, Laffey, Tillman, L. Hernandez, LeBlanc, Tallet, Nippert, McCutchen, Gorzelanny, Misch, Buckner, Mujica, E. Gonzalez, DiNardo.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 23 and how they did.

Bailey – Advised to start. 3.27 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.91 WHIP (2 starts)
Mock – Advised to start. 7.20 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.80 WHIP (1)
Richard – Advised to start. 9.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.67 WHIP (2)
Romero – Advised to sit. W, 4.97 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Sonnanstine – Advised to sit. 19.64 ERA, 2 Ks, 2.45 WHIP (1)

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17

Jon Garland – Earlier in the year it was pretty easy with Garland. You simply benched him for his home starts and inserted him back in the lineup for his road outings. But Garland in his last five starts has a 2.73 ERA and two of those games have been at home and both were Quality Starts. A home start versus Philadelphia could be dicey, but that should be made up for in a road start in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the punchless Mets.

Tommy Hunter – After getting pounded in his major league debut last season, Hunter has had an impressive five outings for the Rangers in 2009. And yes, he has unquestionably been lucky so far, with a .256 BABIP and an 87 percent strand rate. But I like the 23-year old to maintain his good fortune for at least one more week with home starts against the Tigers and Mariners.

Jason Marquis – Usually I avoid recommending starting the top pitchers. But since not everyone has gotten the memo on Marquis, I figured I would mention him. Can anyone else remember a season where the NL leader in wins after the All-Star break might be available on the waiver wire in your league? Marquis is a free agent in 51.5 percent of ESPN leagues. He does have a blister problem but is scheduled this week for road starts at the Mets and at the Reds.

Joe Saunders – Through the first 15 games of the season, Saunders was living large and was cruising along with an 8-4 record and 3.66 ERA despite rotten peripherals, continuing his path from 2008. But in his last five outings Saunders has a 9.82 ERA and only some fine work by Angels hitters have kept his record at 0-2. Maybe it is a bad stretch or maybe it is regression finally catching up to him, but either way it is hard to put him in the lineup this week for two starts.

Randy Wolf – After undergoing a rough patch in June, Wolf has rebounded with five straight Quality Starts with 25 Ks in 31.2 innings in that stretch. His peripherals still suggest a pitcher benefiting from luck, but owners should role the dice with Wolf this week. He has two road starts, but has been a better pitcher away from Chavez Ravine. Wolf has a 4-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in road games this year, a full run lower than his home ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Wainwright, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Burnett, Beckett, Carpenter, Oswalt, Billingsley, Zambrano, Weaver, Jurrjens, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Shields, Harden, Danks, Washburn, Romero, Arroyo, Pelfrey, Buchholz, Galarraga, Maholm, Zito, Correia, Bannister, Pavano, Moyer, O. Perez, Cahill, Perkins, Padilla, Suppan, H. Bailey, Mazzaro, Stammen, Geer, Hill, Burns, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Matt Holliday and trade Russell Branyan last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Jermaine Dye – He is striking out more than he ever has and his AVG is a disappointing .270 so far. His fantasy value is being propped up by HR but he has a 25 percent HR/FB rate. These are reasons why his current owner might trade him. But Dye has just a .243 AVG at home, thanks to a .234 BABIP at U.S. Cellular. He’s batted over .300 at home two of the last three seasons and has never had an AVG that low in his previous four years in Chicago. Dye is also uncharacteristically struggling versus LHP, against whom he has just a .152 AVG. Lifetime he is a .284 hitter versus southpaws. Even with a regression in HR, the updated ZiPS projects him to hit 24 the rest of the season and finish with 36 HR, which exceeds all of the pre-season projections.

David Aardsma – Since Brandon Morrow blew back-to-back saves on May 13-14, Aardsma has three saves and Morrow has none. Additionally, Morrow has pitched multiple innings in the sixth and seventh in his last three outings. Walks have always been a major issue for Aardsma and this year is no different. But this is a guy who is at the very least in the running for saves and is available on the waiver wire in over half of ESPN leagues.

Aubrey Huff – The updated ZiPS forecast shows Huff finishing below last year’s output in every fantasy category. But Huff is also a notoriously slow starter. At this point last year, Huff was batting .240-6-24 and he finished .304-32-108. It’s almost impossible to predict the finish that Huff enjoyed last season, but since he’s starting from a higher baseline, he doesn’t have quite so far to go. Huff already has a nice .209 ISO and his BB/K numbers are better than a year ago. He currently has a .277 BABIP, 20 points below his lifetime mark and 42 points below what he hit last year.

Joe Saunders – There is not one advanced metric that suggests you should pick him up. But at some point we have to stop looking at what we think he should do and instead look at what he has done. Saunders has a lifetime .691 winning percentage with a sub-four ERA in 73 games. The updated ZiPS forecast is not pretty; it shows him going 9-9 with a 4.40 ERA from here on out. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the pre-season projections forecasted for him. If you can acquire him for the price of his expected ZiPS for the remainder of 2009, I like Saunders’ chances of beating that projection.

Coco Crisp – His .751 OPS is identical to what it was a year ago. But in 2009, Crisp is achieving that with a .250 BABIP compared to a .322 mark last season. He may not crack double-digits in HR this season, but it would not be a surprise to see him bat .300 with 20 SB the rest of the way.

Trade

Jason Bartlett – At some point fantasy owners will start to take Bartlett seriously. Currently, his .373-7-30-32-14 line makes him the third-best fantasy player overall according to CBS Sports. The key for Bartlett owners is to find the moment when other owners feel enough time has elapsed to make him a serious acquisition target. Some owners may never consider Bartlett a trade target. That’s okay. The updated ZiPS shows him compiling a .293-5-36-52-15 line from here on out. Yes, a huge decline from where he is now, but still a valuable fantasy SS that could help most clubs. Bartlett owners have already “won” with his production until now. If they can get equivalent value for Bartlett’s RoS ZiPS at a position of need, that should be a win-win deal for both sides.

Zach Duke – He should be an attractive target for clubs that need pitching with his 2.60 K/BB ratio and 3.56 FIP. But Duke has a .261 BABIP and a 5.9 percent HR/FB ratio. Linear Weights shows his fastball turning from an awful pitch the last three seasons to one that is neutral despite having no increase in velocity. His RoS ZiPS shows him with an ERA of 5.24 and a 5-10 record.

B.J. Upton – The time to get a good return on Upton has come and gone. Now we are left with trying to salvage something for the rest of the year. He is striking out at an alarming rate (31.5%) and hitting for no power (.097 ISO). RoS ZiPS sees him hitting .257 with 11 HR. It is possible his trade value still exceeds that meager production.

Johnny Cueto – Everyone expected Cueto to improve upon last year’s numbers, although not many predicted what he’s produced so far in 2009. But Cueto’s lofty numbers carry several warning signs. His 3.64 FIP is well above his 2.37 ERA. Cueto has benefited from an 83.1 percent strand rate and a .253 BABIP. His K/9 is down 1.2 from a season ago and his HR/9 is less than half of what it was in 2008.

Michael Bourn – A one-category performer (SB), Bourn has actually been a plus in three categories so far, adding runs and AVG to his ledger. But the .366 BABIP won’t last and you should actively shop him to someone looking to make up ground in SB.

Stock Up

Andruw Jones, Rangers

Remember the state of Jones’ career one year ago? He was coming off an incredulously bad beginning with the Dodgers (.159/.282/.250 last April), on his way to an apocalyptic .234 wOBA and -17.9 Batting Runs in just 238 PA. It was a startlingly abrupt fall for a guy who had posted 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in a “down” 2007 season. Essentially given a settlement package by the Dodgers to leave LA and never, ever return, Jones has crushed the ball thus far with the Rangers. The corpulent out-maker of ’08 is nowhere to be found, as the 32 year-old has a .507 wOBA (.333/.500/.718) in 52 plate appearances. With Jones channeling his inner Barry Bonds, David Murphy getting in touch with his inner Juan Pierre (.260 wOBA) and Josh Hamilton hitting the DL (finding his inner Milton Bradley?), Andruw should definitely be on your radar.

Dexter Fowler, Rockies

A lanky 6-4 center fielder endowed with a full complement of tools, Fowler is off to an excellent start with Colorado. Aside from his five SB bonanza versus Padres righty Chris Young, Fowler has a .363 wOBA in 82 PA after jumping straight from Double-A. He’s working the count well (10 BB%, 19.7 Outside-Swing%), has shown some pop (.153 Isolated Power) and he’s 9-for-10 in the steals department (a welcome change for a guy whose raw speed had produced a pernicious 66.4% SB success rate over the past three minor league seasons). The 23 year-old switch-hitter has earned an everyday gig with the Rockies, and his broad skill-set makes him well worth acquiring.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

When Youkilis slugged .569 and thumped 29 homers in 2008, most figured that his power numbers would regress more toward his career averages in 2009. After all, his career-high SLG% prior to that was .453, in 2007. So far, the 30 year-old has done his best to quash those thoughts: with 6 dingers and a .744 slugging percentage, Youkilis has produced a .528 wOBA that leads all major league hitters. After four straight seasons of decreasing walks and increasing Outside-Swing percentages (chronicled in more detail here), Youk is drawing free passes at a career-high 15.7% clip.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Jones was covered here a few weeks ago, but his significant progress with the lumber deserves further mention. Jones was among the most free swingers in the game during the 2008 season (his 36.2 Outside-Swing% was leaps and bounds above the 25.4% MLB average, and ranked 9th-highest among all hitters), but he’s curtailed that Francoeur-esque approach in 2009. His O-Swing% is down to a more reasonable 26.5%, and his walk rate his climbed to 8.8% from a paltry 4.6% in ’08. As a result, the 23 year-old has put himself in the hole with less frequency this season: his First-Pitch Strike% has fallen from 66% in 2008 to 59.1% in 2009 (57.6% MLB average). No, he won’t come anywhere close to hitting .355, but Jones’ more enlightened plate approach is a welcome sight.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Gallardo has been every bit the ace he was billed as, with a slick 3.78 K/BB ratio and a 3.37 FIP. He’s benefitting from a .220 BABIP, but with 8.83 K’s per nine, 2.34 BB/9 and a greater number of grounders (47.7 GB%, compared to a 38.7% career average), Gallardo has the skills to remain among the very best in the NL.

Stock Down

David Ortiz, Red Sox

During the off-season, I wondered if the days of “Big Papi” were now a relic of the past, to be replaced by the much-less-catchy “Medium Papi” era. Right about now, Boston would love to have even a mildly productive Papi: the 33 year-old has a sordid .271 wOBA in 114 PA. Ortiz has been uncharacteristically impatient at the dish: his 28.2 Outside-Swing% is well above last year’s 20.6% mark and his 18.3% career average. He’s also making more contact on those outside pitches (59.4 Outside-Contact%, 53.4% in 2008), likely meaning he’s been making more weak contact on “pitcher’s pitches” off the plate. Combine the hacking with an ISO that looks like a misprint (.094) and a tendency to get jammed (his Infield/FB% is 18.6%, compared to an 8.3% career average), and you have a fellow who has produced -6.8 batting runs on the season.

Daniel Cabrera, Nationals

The Nats brought in Cabrera from the O’s this past offseason, hoping to find even remnants of the 6-7, hard-throwing groundball pitcher who looked highly promising during the middle part of the aughts. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s skills have eroded even further this season. His K rate (just 4.75 in ’08, after sitting in the 7-9 range earlier in his career) has dropped to a microscopic 3.33 per nine innings, and he’s issuing an absurd number of free passes (6.29 BB/9). Cabrera sat at 96.2 MPH with his heater in 2005, yet he’s barely cracking 90 this season (90.5 MPH, down over 2 MPH from last season).

Perhaps in recognition of his diminished fastball, Cabrera is mixing in more breaking pitches: his league-high fastball usage in 2008 (82.5%) has been ratcheted down to 67.9%, with more sliders and changeups instead. Unfortunately, he has next to no control of those secondary offerings, either: just 41.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate (48.9% MLB average). The result of all this ugliness is a 5.72 FIP. Cabrera won’t turn 28 until the end of the month, yet it seems as though he’s completely lost the ability to pitch at the major league level within a span of four seasons.

Joe Saunders, Angels

How long can Saunders keep this act up? He posted a 3.41 ERA last season, but a low whiff rate (4.68 K/9) and good fortune on balls in play (.267 BABIP) indicated that regression would find him: his FIP was a less-impressive 4.36. In 2009, Saunders has posted an identical 3.41 ERA in 31.2 frames, yet his FIP has trailed further south (4.87), while his strikeout total (2.56 K/9) would make Kirk Rueter blush. Again benefitting from a low BABIP (.252), Saunders is a great sell-high candidate.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Wither Pronk? Hafner (coming off an ugly, injury-marred 2008 season) had been doing his best “Hulk Smash” impression in the early portion of the season, posting a .394 wOBA and a .270 ISO. Unfortunately, his surgically repaired shoulder again acted up, pushing him to the DL. On the positive side, Hafner’s absence should open the door for the recently recalled Matt LaPorta.

Oliver Perez, Mets

Perez’s scattershot control has come completely off the rails in 2009. Never known for painting the corners, Perez has issued 8.72 BB/9 this year, with a near-ten ERA and a 6.17 FIP. When he’s not walking the yard, Ollie has surrendered line drives at a 29% clip. Batters have understandably plastered the lumber to their shoulders, chasing Perez’s outside offerings just 13.2% of the time (the lowest rate among starters). The 27 year-old’s fastball is coming in at 89.2 MPH (down two ticks from last year). Is Perez hurt? And if not, isn’t that almost worse?

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.