Archive for Jimmy Rollins

It’s easy to be tempted to overreact to the small sample size of strong performances very early in the season. Like many fantasy pundits before me, I’ll continue the tradition of preaching patience with your best players and your preseason evaluations. That doesn’t mean, however, that you should be sitting on your hands. Three things I keep tabs on especially closely in the first few weeks of the season are PITCHf/x data, lineup constructions and playing time distribution. Colleague Scott Spratt tackled fastball leaders in the bullpen and Jeff Sullivan discussed velocity in depth relating to King Felix’s first start. I wont’ tackle PITCHf/x data in this piece — as others have done so already — but I will look at a few playing time situations that might be sorting themselves out as well as a few players whose stock is on the rise as a result of their lineup spot.

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As I write this, Mike Trout is sporting a .556 batting average in Spring Training. I also had the pleasure of drafting him first overall in my NFBC Draft Champions league. To celebrate his feat and my luck, I am shooting for at least five of nine of the following bold predictions.

Here goes (extra ballsy right from the start):

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When I was on The Sleeper and the Bust with Mike Podhorzer a few weeks ago, he told me about his process for finding value in daily contests. The basic idea is that he breaks the rest-of-season ZIPS projections down to a fantasy points per game basis and then compares that to cost to find the biggest values. As I’ve learned, that process takes a bit of work, so I’m going to walk you through it.

The first step is to get the rest-of-season ZIPS projections into a spreadsheet. You can find daily updated projections from the ‘Projections’ tab at the top of the site. Then you need to eliminate the stats and columns that are not needed in order to calculate how many fantasy points a player is projected to score for the rest of the year. But don’t delete the games column; you’ll need it later to calculate projected points per game. Read the rest of this entry »

When picking hitters, the quality and handedness of the opposing pitcher are probably the most important considerations aside from whether the hitter himself is any good and likely to be in the lineup. And it makes sense to be very mindful of the opposing pitcher; the hitter will probably face the starter for most of his plate appearances that day. But starting pitchers are averaging 5.89 innings per start this year, which means that a full third of most games is handled by other pitchers to which we give no consideration. When you consider the fact that most pitchers you choose to start hitters against are below average, the bullpen probably factors into closer to four innings of each game as opposed to just three.

I decided to figure out which bullpens are the most hitter friendly in Draftstreet contests. To do this I had to figure out how many points each reliever has allowed to this point in Draftstreet contests. I pulled all of their batting against statistics, added up all the positive scoring events for hitters and then subtracted all the negative scoring events for hitters. The formula was this: (1B + (2B x 2) + (3B x 3) + (HR x 4) + (HBP x 0.75) + (BB x 0.75) + (R x 1.5) + (RBI x 1.5) + (SB x 2) + (SAC x .75)) – ((K x 0.75) + (GDP x 0.75) + CS). Read the rest of this entry »

We’re plowing through the rest of the Depth Chart Discussions (<– excellent link to them all on one page!) this week as we continue our preparation for the numerous drafts we have in the coming weeks. And with that, it’s now time to bust out your AARP card and make sure your Blue Shield policy is up to date, because we’re talking Phillies infield now. The average age is 34, considered prehistoric in relative terms, and the total number of trips to the DL can only be rivaled by the number of gray hairs you find once you wash all the Pomade out from Chase Utley’s hair. Sure you’ve got some quality players but risk/reward is the game you’re playing here. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve often stated that I was going to run a fantasy baseball team simply by rotating players in my lineup coming off of terrible offensive weeks. I’ve never spent enough time to actually formulate a plan (and frankly, when I spend any time on it at all, the whole thing blows up in my face) but you know where I’m going with this. The idea is simply to play the regression game, for better or for worse.

Would it work? Probably not, because as a dedicated reader, you know there’s a lot more behind a BABIP than whether a ball happened to be a frozen rope right at the third baseman or if a ball Texas-leagued itself in the Bermuda triangle between the 5, 6, and 7. Or if you get your hits like this.

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Thanks to his outstanding start Monday night against Minnesota, here are some thoughts on Chicago White Sox pitcher Zach Stewart:

– While Stewart performed well enough to throw a one-hitter Monday night, his pitch mix was very interesting. He threw one change-piece against the Twins, opting to use just his fastball and slider. Scouts and prospect analysts have argued over whether Stewart is going to be a back or middle of the rotation starter, or delegated to bullpen duty in the long run. Unless he puts some work on developing and using a changeup, he’s going to be forced to the pen sooner or later.

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Jimmy Rollins is entering a pivotal season in his career. For years, the switch-hitter was a power/speed dynamo who ranked near the top of pre-season shortstop rankings. But, at 32, Rollins faces a contract year coming off a season sabotaged by calf and hamstring injuries (he had cysts removed from his left wrist this offseason, too). Rollins’ ailments limited him to less than 400 plate appearances in 2010, the first season that he logged less than 600 PAs in the majors.

Since his 2006-2008 peak at the plate, during which he hit .284/.342/.485 (15 percent above the MLB average, once park and league factors are accounted for), Rollins has tumbled to a .248/.304/.406 triple-slash over the 2009-2010 seasons (11 percent below average). Can we expect better from a more Zen J-Roll in 2011, or will he continue to fade?

One of the biggest factors in Rollins’ offensive decline is his batting average on balls in play — his BABIP over the ’09 and ’10 seasons was .249. That’s fourth-lowest among qualified big league hitters over the past two years, and well below his career .290 mark. And much of Rollins’ BABIP downturn has come on grounders. From 2009-10, he had a .178 BABIP on ground balls, compared to a .225 career average and a .235 average for NL hitters. That ’09-’10 ground ball BABIP was sixth-lowest among MLB hitters, placing slightly ahead of speed luminaries like Casey Kotchman, Lyle Overbay and Jose Lopez. Wait, what?

Despite top-shelf speed, Rollins has generally posted below-average BABIP figures on grounders during his career. But recently, his performance on choppers has been commensurate with players whose 60-yard dash times are measured by sun dials, not stop watches. Could those aforementioned lower body injuries be sapping Rollins of some of his foot speed?

Rollins has remained a high-percentage base stealer, swiping 31 bags and getting caught seven times in 2009 and going 17-for-18 on the base paths this past year. But he is attempting to steal bases less often. According to Baseball-Reference, J-Roll took off on 16.6 percent of his stolen base opportunities (defined as a situation in which a runner is on first or second and the next base is open) from 2006-2008. That dropped to 15.6 percent in ’09, and 12.2 percent in ’10.

In terms of other base running aspects (such taking an extra base or advancing on wild pitches and passed balls), Rollins remains above average: Baseball Prospectus’ base running stats show him adding around two runs of value in non-SB base running last year. It doesn’t seem like his wheels are shot.

Perhaps in an effort to conserve his legs, Rollins is picking his spots to go full-bore on the bases. Those forty-plus steal seasons appear to be over. But if Rollins is healthy, it’s likely that his BABIP in grounders will perk up, and so should his line. ZiPS projects a .264/.323/.426 showing in 2011. Rollins’ go-go years may be behind him, but that offensive line, coupled with around 25 steals, still makes him one of the better options at a shallow position.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some shortstops.

Derek Jeter
The Captain was drafted pretty high this year, and his production was lacking. He’s going to be 37 next June, so this isn’t the time to own Jeter if you haven’t already.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 10 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s still worthy of a roster spot, but not at his keeper price.

Jimmy Rollins
Rollins is another aging shortstop who has had a bad year, but he’s not as old as Jeter. Rollins will be 32 by the time the 2011 season rolls around, so he’s not at the bottom of the hill quite yet. For the first time in his career, Rollins did not step to the plate at least 625 times due to injury. However, he walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, and was only thrown out once on the basepaths.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.335, 12 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Cut. His value will not equal his price.

Starlin Castro
While Castro was a solid performer in real life, his fantasy value was limited by his lack of counting stats. Castro did steal ten bags, but he did that in 18 tries. Plus, his average is going to be a product of his BABIP, which sat around .350 this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.355, 5 HR, 12 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s got the ability to rack up counting stats at some point, and he won’t hurt you in the meantime.

Alcides Escobar
Escobar came into 2010 with huge expectations, and fulfilled none of them. But, for the most part, his lack of production wasn’t his fault. The Brewers didn’t give him many chances to run, and his BABIP was absurdly low.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you reached for him based on upside, you should cut him. But, his market value should be fair enough.

Cliff Pennington
Pennington is a typical Billy Beane player. He keeps the strikeouts to a minimum, plays solid defense, and walks at an average rate. While I thought he’d be a valuable player in real life, I never suspected fantasy success so soon.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.350, 7 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s been undervalued because of his average, which should change next season.

If you have a shortstop you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Last week, after a throwaway comment about his inclusion among the elite shortstops, we had a delightful repartee in the comments section about Jimmy Rollins. I rarely own Rollins because of his first- and second-round cost, but perceive him as elite from afar, so some of the comments surprised me. Was his 2008 “crappy?” Has he really not been elite for years? Do you have to be taken in the first two rounds to be elite? Let’s try and go at this without preconceptions and work forward.

What is elite? I might have a healthy Rollins as the fourth- or fifth-best shortstop in the fantasy baseball this year. Would that be elite? A comparable outfielder would be one that was in the top third at his position, or the ninth- or tenth-best OF. That would be somewhere between Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter Pence so far in 2010. That doesn’t pass the sniff test, so it doesn’t look like Rollins is ‘elite’ if elite means something like the top tenth at a certain position. Certainly, Rollins is not passing Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is healthier and younger, so that’s debatable as well.

So does Rollins belong in the same tier even? He does own a career 105 wRC+, which looks great compared to the average batting-average qualifying shortstop this year – 86 wRC+. Perhaps a comparison to Troy Tulowitzki will help. Tulo put up 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases to Rollins’ 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year, and while that seems fairly comparable, Rollins of course had a .250 batting average while he accrued his stats, compared to Tulo’s much more palatable .297 number. Case closed? Rollins’ batting average sinks him from the tier?

Maybe. It’s pretty stark. But Rollins had a .251 BABIP last year, which pales next to Tulowitzki’s .316 in the same season, and also next to his own .291 career BABIP. So if Rollins had put up something closer to his .273 career batting average, he probably would be a lot closer to fitting in the tier, no?

Then there’s the issue of Tulowitzki’s speed. It’s inconsistent. It’s not something to depend on. His career success rate is 61%, and his career speed score is 5.1 (5.0 is average). He never stole more than six bases in a minor league season, either. It wouldn’t be going out on a limb to predict that he’ll never again steal twenty bases.

So let’s try to ‘normalize’ Tulowitzki’s stats using his career ISO and this analysis of his speed. If he’s a .190 ISO guy, with questionable speed, we might want to guesstimate something like a .290 season with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases next year. Other guys with .190-.200 ISOs this season include David Wright, Delmon Young and Torii Hunter, and though ISO doesn’t straight up equal home run power, this seems to make sense.

What would a similar guesstimation have to say about Rollins? Let’s take his career batting average, accrued over 6800 plate appearances, add it to his plus speed, and take his .163 career ISO to spit out something like .270, 12 home runs and 35+ stolen bases in a healthy year. That seems comparable to Tulo, even if you give the younger shortstop a nudge for being younger and having more power. Stolen bases are rare, and getting them from a middle infielder is a bonus.

The gorilla in the room is Rollins’ age. He’ll be 32 next year and aging middle infielders can find themselves in precipitous declines – just ask Derek Jeter how 2010 is going. Rollins’ ISO has declined, generally, over the past four years, and his speed scores, though still nice (7.0 this year), have fallen off his elite pace as well. Even though it’s tempting to say he’s been ‘oft-injured’ recently, it’s hard to discern a serious trend in his plate appearance totals. It’s definitely worth noting that his lowest two plate appearance totals will have come in the past three years, though.

Yes, Rollins is declining. Yup, he’s probably not elite. Yes, most people would take Tulowitzki over Rollins. But no, he’s not dead yet. And no, despite his injury-riddled 2010 and poor-luck-addled 2009, he’s not quite ‘crappy’ just yet. Taken at the right moment in 2011, he may just win a few fantasy leagues next year. Heck, his comeback may just win a couple fantasy leagues this year, provided his owners didn’t fall too far off the pace while he was out.