Archive for Jimmy Nelson

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Andrew Triggs (Oakland Athletics) – Did you realize that Triggs hold a 25.8% strikeout rate? What about a 58.1% groundball rate and 25.6% soft contact? How about his 3.32 SIERA? Okay, this is a really poor style of telling you information, but it does illuminate how quietly Triggs is performing out of the gate in Oakland. Sure, his 9.1% walk rate and 9.4% whiff rate are questionable, but you’re going to have warts and I’d gladly chase his batted ball profile mixed with strikeout upside.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – Minor is back again, despite getting roughed up by the Astros last week. It’s hard for me to discredit him plenty after facing one of the toughest offenses in the league, while Seattle and Oakland are next in line. Given enough time, I can see Minor getting more comfortable with his repertoire as he features higher velocity than his time as a starter back in 2014. My colleague Ian Post wrote a fantastic GIF Breakdown of the stuff he brings to the table, and he’s well worth the investment off the wire.

Trevor Cahill (Oakland Athletics) – Cahill may not actually make this list if I made it tomorrow as more players become aware of his studly shutout seven innings with eight strikeouts against the ChiSox Tuesday night. I can see owners repeating his name wondering why they recognize it only to think “hey, wasn’t he really good for a moment last year?” That was a stretch of seven starts to begin 2017 with a 3.27 ERA, 29.5% K rate, and 1.21 WHIP. While you shouldn’t be expecting a replication moving forward, he has the ability to miss bats with his curveball while keeping batters off balance with a lively two-seamer and solid changeup. There’s value to be had here.

Nick Tropeano (Los Angeles Angels) – He missed the entirety of 2017 with TJS after being an intriguing sleeper option after producing a 23.0% K rate and 12.5% whiff rate across 68.1 IP in 2016. His breaking ball (Slider? Curveball?) was the catalyst with a fantastic 24%+ whiff rate in 2016, and with his first start back against the Royals, that number exceeded 20% again, leading to a stellar 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks line. This is far from what to expect and he’s a massive risk tomorrow against the Red Sox, though keep an eye on him. This could turn from a streaming option to a back-end starter quickly.

Vincent Velasquez (Philadelphia Phillies) – I’m actually a little surprised to see Velasquez as an option in the heavy majority of leagues, even not as a big fan myself. Without the strong secondary pitches, Velasquez is sure to have his valleys, but with one of the better fastballs around, his peaks can be massive. His last two starts have combined for 13 strikeouts, two walks, and two earned runs in 12.2 IP – not a sample to get behind, but more of an expression of a ceiling to chase. Don’t start him against strong offenses, feast on the average and below average, and this will work out well.

Luiz Gohara (Atlanta Braves) – Stashes aren’t the most popular of moves in fantasy, but Gohara looks ready to be an arm that will help your team by the middle of May. He had a rehab start on Tuesday and while it wasn’t impressive, given another few weeks, he could start producing results at the big level. He comes with an overpowering fastball and a slider that earned a 24.3% whiff rate across 140 thrown in 2017 – and he didn’t have the best command of it! – suggesting that he can be successful even if he doesn’t take the next step with his changeup. It’s only a matter of time before he gets picked up in your league, you may want to consider it now.

Jimmy Nelson (Milwaukee Brewers) – With Gohara, there’s Nelson, another productive stash as he should help your team through the second half of the season. It’s an easier stash given his DL eligibility, though his return will be later in the year – think June/early July – and it’s still hazy as to how productive he will be. Yes, Nelson went on a tear to complete his 2017 season, though returning from a torn labrum may hold him back from repeating his 2017 breakout. Nevertheless, the risk is worth the gamble if you have room for another on your squad.

Chris Stratton (San Francisco Giants) – It’s a familiar list last from last week, with over half the names returning as they made a home on the wire. Stratton’s outlook hasn’t changed, still acting a possible streaming option with a glimmer of hope to become a sturdy arm if his curveball gets a larger spotlight. His slider has potential as well, and monitor its consistency moving forward, while his heater is good enough to set up his secondary pitches. Don’t anticipate greatness but he should be in consideration for a roster spot.

Andrew Heaney (Los Angeles Angels) – Like Tropeano, Heaney returned for the Angels this week, though his road has been a little rockier with just six starts since the end of 2015. He profiles to be an innings eater, though he shocked with seven strikeouts to his name in his 2018 debut. His curveball has earned whiffs every step of the way – 23.3% career whiff rate – while he has featured great fastball command in the past. There may be some growing pains here as Heaney finds a rhythm, but there is upside to be had that could label him a Top 60 starter.

Daniel Mengden (Oakland Athletics) – I don’t see Mengden becoming a staple of staff. At the same time, he’s known to go on stretches where his fastball command is on point and he’s able to throw his curveball in the zone for strikes. Now could be that time as he’s fresh off a fantastic 8.0 IP 1 ER outing against the White Sox. At 3% ownership, Mengden could be a sneaky play in deeper leagues in the short term.

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – I get the feeling Minor needs just one more outing before he’s wildly owned. He’s sporting a 2.53 ERA with a 29.3% K rate thus far, supported by a 3.38 FIP and 12.9% whiff rate. He’s locating his slider well on both sides of the plate, trusting his changeup plenty as both a strike-getter and finisher, while he’s being careful with his fastball to prevent the longball (5.6% HR/FB rate thus far). I can even see Minor improving as he gets more innings as a starter, since 2018 marks the first year he’s been handed the role since the 2014 season. April is all about getting on the right trains early, and Minor could be leaving the station soon.

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About a month ago, I started searching for the league’s underthrown pitches. Pitches that despite inducing elite swing-and-miss, ground ball, and pop-up rates, are thrown with scarcity relative to other inferior offerings. It was as an enlightening a topic to research, as it dealt with untapped potential, as it was a fun series to write. Though to be honest, there wasn’t a whole lot of actionable fantasy advice to be gleamed. But in the process of writing those pieces, I had to grade each pitch. And arsenal scores, a subject of interest to the RotoGraphs community over the years, were just a stone’s throw from away from the groundwork I’d already laid.
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After an incredible first half of week 14 — 0.90 ERA, 3-for-3 in quality starts, 17-2 K/BB ratio and 0.55 WHIP — we’re feeling pretty good heading into week 15. Here’s how things have shook out so far this season:

30-27 record
3.87 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.30 WHIP
45 quality starts

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses:

RHP Jimmy Nelson – 21.6% ESPN – @SDP (92), @ARI (95)

It might be a tough sell on Nelson, who has decent enough numbers this year but is a) coming off getting absolutely rocked by the Diamondbacks (whom he sees on the back end this week) and b) walks way, way too many batters. He’s got the third most walks in the NL (55) and has given up his share of extra-base hits as well, so while his .255 BAA looks impressive, he’s sporting a triple-slash against of .255/.344/.403. So while that doesn’t look all that appetizing, it came down to him or Adam Conley (Cubs and Rockies both at home), Archie Bradley (also getting largely rocked; will likely face Nelson on Saturday) or James Paxton (Red Sox and Angels). So….we’re playing the matchups here, kind of. Read the rest of this entry »

My intrigue with Jimmy Nelson began over two years ago, when I first saw him pitch in Triple-A. Since then, the now-26-year-old has only gotten more interesting, as he’s made several significant adjustments in his quest to stick as a quality major-league starter. Back in May 2014, Nelson’s repertoire focused on the combination of his mid-90’s four-seam fastball and mid-80’s slider, with work-in-progress versions of a sinker and changeup. His delivery — especially his release point — was far from consistent, causing his command to be an irregular guest.

Of course, ironing out problems like this is what the term ‘player development’ is all about. In David Laurila’s interview with Nelson from last August, Nelson discusses smoothing out his delivery:

“It was a mechanical change. Instead of going over my head with my hands to start my delivery, now I just keep them in front and drop them down. That allows me to be more consistent and repeatable, and a lot more relaxed.”

Nelson’s repertoire and pitch usage saw even more adjustments over the last couple years than his mechanics. By the time he got the call to the majors in mid-July 2014, he was throwing more sinkers than four-seamers, a trend that continues to this day. Through his first 308 major-league innings, he’s throwing his sinker at a 40.4% rate, compared to 25.1% for the four-seamer.

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I’m enamored with Jimmy Nelson. I’ll get that out of the way immediately. Fair or unfair — and rational or irrational for that matter — I am a sucker for big pitchers, and Nelson fits the bill at 6-6 and 245 pounds. He’s built like a workhorse and has avoided any significant injuries. That said, he’s yet to eclipse the 200-innings mark. After pitching 180.1 innings across Triple-A and the majors last year, he’s in a position to make 2015 his first season of reaching or exceeding 200 innings. As you’ve probably guessed as a result of sharing my infatuation with Nelson, I expect them to be very good innings. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Brewers rotation was exceedingly stable in 2014. They had three starters who threw 190+ innings and another guy who threw 160+ innings. As a result, they only used seven starters all year, which I would imagine was at least tied for the lowest number in the league. But their workhorse starters weren’t just innings eaters. The three guys who topped 190 innings all had an ERA just north of 3.50 while the 160-inning starter had an ERA just north of 3.60. Unfortunately, none of their starters were aces or even close to it, which is why they ranked just 15th in ERA and 17th in WAR.

The stability is expected to continue this year despite Yovani Gallardo’s departure as they have five starters projected to throw between 160 and 180 innings. Again, none are projected to be aces, and several are projected to regress from what they did last year. But if nothing else, they have the classic innings eaters who can keep them in games and give the team a chance to win, a trait that is far more appealing to color commentators than it is to fantasy owners. Read the rest of this entry »

The Brewers opened a hole in their rotation once they traded Yovani Gallardo to the Rangers, obviously. Some pundits guessed that Milwaukee had made the move in order to clear the way to sign free agent James Shields or trade for rumored chip Jordan Zimmermann. GM Doug Melvin put such beliefs to rest shortly after the swap by stating that the spot is Jimmy Nelson’s, however. Akin moves are more his style, really, and it’s about time for the right-hander, who’ll be 26 in June.

Nelson’s spike in projected playing time should drive up interest from fantasy baseball players, naturally. How much more interest is justifiable? That’s not a question with a simple answer.

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