Archive for Jed Lowrie

Every year, it seems like there’s a handful of veteran players who go overlooked by fantasy owners. Part of it is likely that these 30-somethings do not excite you anymore. You’ve been scrolling past some of these names for a decade, if not longer. Your eyes simply skim through them on their quest to find that young sleeper who’s about to break out.

Another part of the the puzzle may be that no analysts write about these guys anymore. What would anyone possibly have to say at this point about a player we’ve all been watching since 2005? “He’s still here”? That’s no fun — at least, it’s far less fun than projecting the next breakout performer.

As someone who understands that life isn’t always fun, I hereby declare my intent to remind you that the following three players are worth owning, despite their relatively high ‘old and boring’ levels.

Shin-Soo Choo (17% Yahoo, 17.5% ESPN, 46% CBS, 92.1% Ottoneu)

I understand there might not be anything sexy about owning Choo these days. The guy does turn 35 next month, and spent most of last year struggling with injuries. However, the fact that he’s owned in about 17% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues is entirely unforgivable. Check out these numbers and tell me why he’s on your waiver wire.

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I am a chronic off-season Mets rosterbater. Many of my potential Mets trade Tweets are far from rational. Some have included proposals for Troy Tulowitzki, which then leads to trading Daniel Murphy in order to open second base for a long-term competition between Wilmer Flores and Dilson Herrera.

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The discussion below does not involve bizarre predictions. In fact, it doesn’t even include bold predictions. Essentially, the discussion is just the opposite of my bold predictions post last week. Or opposite in that I’ll be discussing players I dislike compared to the average as opposed to players I like. As for what ‘the average is,’ I’m using the expert consensus rank (ECR) from FantasyPros.com. If you’re still confused on the premise of this post, maybe the image below will help.

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Ever since the boss, Mr. Eno Sarris, showed me how to use the VLOOKUP function in Excel, I can’t stop comparing recent numbers to past rates. The function makes it easy to put this season’s numbers in one sheet, past season or career numbers in another sheet, and then pull the past numbers and place them right next to the corresponding season numbers for any sample of players.

Instead of billing a client from 1:15-3:05 yesterday afternoon at work, I toyed around comparing 2012 and career fly ball rates to 2013 numbers. I chose those two because we’re at the point in the year where most qualified hitters have a sample of 80+ balls in play, which is the point at which FB% stabilizes according to Russell Carleton.

The first thing I looked at was whether the hitters with the highest fly ball rates in 2012 had seen a shift so far this season. The idea was that the guys who cut down on the fly balls would see a corresponding rise in average given that fly balls go for hits somewhere in the neighborhood of 13%-15% of the time, while ground balls are hits roughly 25% of the time and line drives about 71-73% of the time. Read the rest of this entry »

Considering I just covered the A’s infield earlier this month when the team acquired infielder Jed Lowrie in exchange for Brad Peacock and Chris Carter, this one will actually be short and sweet. There hasn’t been any change in the two weeks since that last article was published. What I did do was a little more studying of the team and consulted with those who follow the A’s much more closely than I do and whose opinions I trust and respect. Read the rest of this entry »

You can tell we’re all itching for pitchers and catchers to report when multiple RotoGraphs writers start jumping all over a trade between the A’s and the Astros that doesn’t really have any marquee talent to discuss. But hey, we’re almost there. Just days away, in fact. But while others handle the power bat of Chris Carter, the potential of Brad Peacock and the dregs of what’s left in Houston, I’m going to take a look at how Jed Lowrie’s arrival in Oakland is going to impact the A’s, and how, for fantasy purposes, the outlook isn’t so good. Read the rest of this entry »

– With Jed Lowrie ready to return from the disabled list, it appears that he and Marco Scutaro with split time at shortstop for the mighty Boston Red Sox. With that lineup, it may not matter to Boston who ends up in the starting lineup, but this is a big blow for fantasy owners. Heading into the season, I had a hard time projecting numbers for both of the Boston infielders due to playing time questions, and did not draft either of them in the process. If for some reason you own one of the aforementioned shortstops and don’t have a backup plan, I feel sorry for you. If you’re looking to add a player off the wire and Lowrie is available, he might not be a bad pickup. If he hits, he’ll stay in the lineup. Bottom line.

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There’s really no need to be embarrassed.  It’s a very common problem.  In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners.  I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time.  No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better.  It happens to everyone.  Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »

Another interesting name came up in the comments section when we did the shortstop keeper rankings last week. The Red Sox have a young shortstop from Stanford that had a good season, what’s his name again?

Right. Jed Lowrie. He of the nice walk rate (12.7% last year), booming ISO (.240 last year), and somewhat surprising 2010 slash line (.287/.381/.526), perhaps he should have been included? Perhaps.

But even before we get to his ability to repeat that performance, there is the fact that the Red Sox have an incumbent shortstop that may complicate issues. Marco Scutaro was just decent, but he’s predictable – he’s topped 2.1 WAR for three straight seasons now. Then again, Scutaro’s defense, now accrued in over 1400 plays, is below scratch (-3.5 UZR/150 career at SS). And he’s never shown a slugging percentage over .409, let alone over .500. If Lowrie can repeat his 2010 performance, Scutaro can easily settle into a super utility role… and there’s still the open job at third.

We can agree that Lowrie has more upside than Scutaro, and with 23 games at short under his belt, he’ll be eligible there – so now we can get to his ability to put up another OPS over .800. The variability in his possible 2011 performance kept him off the list at first, but perhaps it shouldn’t in deeper leagues. If Lowrie is to be an asset in fantasy baseball, he’s going to do it with his batting average and his power, so let’s unpack those portions of his game.

There’s no magic formula for a nice batting average. Lowrie, in his rookie season, showed a .258 batting average despite a strong .328 BABIP – and his strikeout rate was probably at fault (26.2%). In his lost 2009, Lowrie put up an eyesore of a .147 batting average by combining a terrible BABIP (.118) with lots of whiffs (29.4%). Lo and behold, once he ironed those two stats out last year (14.6% K%, .292 BABIP) and spawned this discussion most likely. That’s a lot of variance in his strikeout rate. Lowrie put up a 17.9% strikeout rate in the minor leagues (and over 20% in Triple-A), so it’s reasonable to expect him to strike out a little more next year. If he does, the batting average will most likely drop. This also meshes with his history well – even if you take out his lost 2009, he oscillated from .262 to .328 in the category down on the farm. Don’t pencil him in for a .280+ batting average.

Then again, plenty of players show value with poor batting averages, and a .500+ slugging percentage from a shortstop would paper over other flaws. He had a .161 ISO in the minor leagues, and his .172 major league ISO just barely topped the threshold for reliability (579 plate appearances). Since those plate appearances came over multiple years, it’s hard to say if even the .172 ISO is a repeatable skill for him. Looking over his minor league career, however, you will notice that he topped a .200 ISO in 2007 in Double- and Triple-A, and of course did so again last year. Only one qualifying shortstop last year topped a .200 ISO (Troy Tulowitzki), so this is no meaningless discussion.

Lowrie was a flyball hitter in the minor leagues – once he hit Triple-A, he never hit more than 33% of his balls on the ground – so at least he’s doing that part right. Sometimes players can have trouble with the line drive when they have so much loft in their swings, and even in his decent year last year, Lowrie showed a poor line drive rate (16.4%). There’s actually some upside left in him even if his strikeout rate returns. He could pair a strong line drive rate with all those flyballs and manage a decent batting average despite a worse strikeout rate – and of course his power stats would be happy with that combo.

Deep dynasty leaguers and AL-only keeper leaguers should find space on the end of their bench for Lowrie’s kind of upside. Because of the high level of variability in his possible outcomes, though, everyone else should probably just keep an eye on him in next year’s drafts.

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

Dustin Pedroia‘s laser show is postponed until 2011, and Marco Scutaro’s playing through a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Thus, Lowrie is getting the chance to re-insert himself into Boston’s plans after scarcely playing at all over the past two seasons.

A 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, Lowrie displayed quality secondary skills for a middle infielder in the minors (.284/.380/.445 line in 1,600+ plate appearances). Baseball America ranked the switch-hitter as the #73 prospect in the game prior to 2008, and Lowrie reached Fenway that year. He held his own in the majors, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA with a 95 wRC+. Lowrie punched out often (26.2 K%), but he controlled the zone by walking 11.4% of the time and swinging at pitches thrown off the plate just 17.6% (25.4% MLB average in ’08).

Unfortunately, Lowrie suffered a left wrist injury in 2009 and had to undergo surgery that wiped out three months of his season. He took only 76 trips to the plate in the majors last year, posting a 20 wRC+ with terrible luck on balls put in play. This season, Lowrie was sidelined until late July with Mononucleosis.

Since returning to action, however, Lowrie’s bat has been a plus for the Sox. He’s got a 122 wRC+ in 128 PA, hitting .255/.359/.445. The 26-year-old has a 14.1% walk rate, hacking at 21.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (29.2% MLB average this season). Lowrie’s no star, but he possesses patience and a dash of pop while capably playing up the middle of the diamond. CHONE thinks Jed is a .262/.347/.400 hitter ZiPS is less of a fan, though (.242/.324/.394). I like his chances of staying closer to that CHONE forecast.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (22%)

For most of his minor league career, Chacin was a moderate-K, ground ball-centric pitcher who limited walks. In the show, though, the 22-year-old Venezuelan native has taken a power approach.

In 113.1 innings pitched this season, Chacin has whiffed 117 batters. His rate of 9.29 strikeouts per nine frames ranks 10th among pitchers tossing at least 100 innings. His 10.7% swinging strike rate also ranks 10th, and his 74% overall contact rate trails just Francisco Liriano. Chacin’s breaking stuff has been devastating. According to TexasLeaguers.com, he’s throwing his low-80’s slider for a strike 70.6% (63.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 22.5% (13.6% MLB average). The righty’s high-70’s curveball is getting strikes 61% (58% MLB average) and whiffs 14% (11.6% MLB average).

All of those whiffs have come with walks. Throwing 41.3% of his pitches within the zone (46.7% MLB average), Chacin has issued 4.05 BB/9. Even so, he’s boasting an above-average ground ball rate (46.3 GB%) and a 3.69 xFIP. Pick him up if he’s still sitting on the sidelines in your league.