Archive for Jason Giambi

Let’s face it — when the A’s acquired Kila Ka’aihue from the Royals on Tuesday, they simply added another mediocre Major League hopeful who crushes it in Triple-A but will probably never get it on the big league level to an already disastrous first base situation.  Ever since Jason Giambi jumped ship for the big bucks and bright lights of New York in 2002, the first base situation for the A’s has been a relative mess.  Sure, Nick Swisher brought some productivity to the  position when he was moved in from the outfield back in 2006, but you can add Ka’aihue’s name to a shameful list that includes such greats as Scott Hatteberg, Eric Karros, Erubiel Durazo, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton.  You can throw in a post-steroidal Giambi and a way-past-his-prime Nomar to the mix as well if you like as well.  How the A’s end up mixing in Ka’aihue into the 1B/DH mix will ultimately be decided next spring, but fantasy owners are already speculating the potential ugliness for the A’s in 2012.

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The first half of the 2011 season saw two of the game’s better power hitters fall into a veritable abyss when it came to production.  Both players were joining new teams, both signed big contracts, and both were drafted with home run expectations that were sky high.  But both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn struggled mightily to begin the year, and while those that drafted them were becoming more and more frustrated by the day, other GMs were sitting back and licking their chops, waiting for the moment of a huge buy-low opportunity.  Those that tried it with Uggla just finished reaping the benefits of a 33 game hit streak and a .361-12-28 second half run.  Those of us who chose Dunn?  Well….not so much. Read the rest of this entry »

Stock Up

Garrett Jones, Pirates

Who? Mr. Jones is a 28 year-old lefty hitter who had a bitter cup of coffee with the Twins back in 2007 (.260 wOBA in 84 PA). The hulking 6-4, 230 pounder is one of many kinda-sorta-maybe corner outfielders getting a chance at playing time in Pittsburgh (Brandon Moss and Delwyn Young are also in the mix). Jones has responded by thwacking 5 home runs in his first 46 PA. While he could be a cheap source of power and has a good chance of keeping his name in the lineup, I would hesitate against getting too enthralled. Jones is a career .258/.312/.450 minor league hitter who has taken 5 tours of the AAA International League. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection (.257/.309/.455, 6.7 BB%) essentially makes Jones look like Pittsburgh’s version of Micah Hoffpauir.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants

Sanchez was booted from San Fran’s rotation, only to be returned to the starting five in the aftermath of Randy Johnson ’s shoulder injury. I think Jonathan, uh, responded well. The gifted, aggravating 26 year-old tossed a no-no versus the Padres, punching out 11 in the process. It’s anyone’s guess as to how the Puerto Rican native pitches in his next outing, though. Equipped with low-90’s cheese and a plus slider (+1.84 runs/100 pitches), Sanchez has punched out 9.04 hitters per nine innings. However, his walk rate (5.26 BB/9) leaves owners pulling out their hair. Whether the 6-2, 190 pounder remains in Giants duds past the deadline remains to be seen, but he should continue taking regular turns in the rotation regardless.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Pablo is no stranger to the “Stock Up” section, but his scorching first-half deserves special mention. As a 22 year-old, Sandoval has posted a .406 wOBA, ripping the seams of the ball to the tune of a .333/.385/.578 line. While the 5-11, 245 pound corner infielder will never be called restrained at the plate, he has shown promising signs in terms of working the count. Sandoval’s walk rate has climbed from 2.7% in 2008 to 7.3% this year, with a drop in his percentage of swings outside of the strike zone (53.8% to 45.3%). As a result, Pablo’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped from 70.8% to 59.4% (58% MLB average).

Sandoval has contributed 21.3 park-adjusted Batting Runs above average for the Giants. The rest of San Francisco’s usual starting lineup has posted a collective -18.5 Batting Runs. Let that sink in for a moment.

David Price, Rays

In 2009, Price has been a Three True Outcomes pitcher. While the abundance of whiffs (9.61 K/9) highlight the talent that made the Vanderbilt star the most celebrated pitching prospect in the minors, Price has also handed out free passes (6.34 BB/9) and souvenirs (1.43 HR/9) far too often. Perhaps Price has begun to turn the corner, as he outdueled Doc Halladay on July 9th (6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The 23 year-old southpaw will likely toss the occasional stinker as he gains his big league footing, but there’s still every reason to think he’ll be an integral part of Tampa’s rotation. If Price can get ahead of hitters more frequently (his first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.9%), he should be able to garner more swings on pitches off the plate (his outside-swing percentage is only 18.6%, compared to the 25% MLB avg).

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals

Formerly property of Oakland, Texas, Cleveland and Detroit, Ludwick had saw career stagnate as he dealt with the effects of a serious hip injury. The righty-hitting, lefty-chucking outfielder then revived his baseball ambitions in St. Louis, posting a .350 wOBA in 2007 and a monstrous .406 mark in 2008. While last year was almost assuredly a peak season, the 31 year-old Ludwick (Happy Birthday, Ryan!) has rebounded from some BABIP-induced valleys (.716 OPS, .156 BABIP in May, .622 OPS, .219 BABIP in June) to crush the ball for a 1.243 OPS in July. His production for the season (.357 wOBA, .264/.333/.496) is a good match for his ’07 work. ZiPS sees Ludwick performing slightly better from here on out (.368 wOBA, .273/.345/.510).

Stock Down

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers

Salty has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many this season. The 24 year-old, switch-hitting backstop was the best-known prospect in the July 2007, gift-that-keeps-on-giving Mark Teixeira swap. However, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus are running circles around Saltalamacchia these days.

Salty didn’t show much pop in his trial with Texas last year (.319 wOBA, .244/.352/.365) and he whiffed like Chris Davis lite (37.4 K%), but he did work the count well (13.5 BB%). This year, he has kept the punch outs (36.3 K%) but dropped the patient approach (6.8 BB%). His O-Swing% has soared from 26.2% to 34.6%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 53% to 64%. The result? A putrid .288 wOBA. There’s still time for Salty, but he’s going to have to halt the Eric Munson impersonation.

Jason Giambi, Athletics

As Dave Cameron pointed out last month, the baseball community has an Adam Everett-like batting average when it comes to identifying when an older player is “done.” There’s usually a rush to attribute poor performance in baseball’s elder statesmen to a loss in skill, and sometimes that’s correct. But other times, Jim Edmonds or Gary Sheffield gets released and then starts partying like it’s 1999.

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that I’m not quite ready to write Giambi’s hardball eulogy; many of you will remember that he looked washed up a half-decade ago and then resumed raking. But the 38 year-old looks cooked. His performance against fastballs has cratered (-0.50 runs/100 pitches, compared to +1.01 in 2008), and things are only getting worse as the months roll by:

Giambi’s Runs/100 pitches against fastballs, by month

April: +0.24
May: -0.17
June: -0.56
July: -3.97

If one wishes to be optimistic, his .217 BABIP is nearly 40 points lower than 2008’s mark. Giambi could bounce back, but I wouldn’t bet on it. ZiPS projects a .213/.347/.404 line the rest of the way. That’s just not very useful at a position where the average player boasts a .276/.363/.485 triple-slash.

Ervin Santana, Angels

(I don’t have anything against the AL West-I swear!)

On the heels of a dominant 2008 season in which he compiled a 3.30 FIP, Santana has gotten roped for a 5.72 FIP in 40.1 innings. Pitching with a damaged elbow ligament, Ervin just isn’t nearly the same hurler who used a wicked mid-90’s fastball and biting slider to punch out 8.79 batters per nine innings in 2008. Santana’s velocity is down over 3 ticks this year (94.4 MPH to 91 MPH), with a 2-3 MPH dip on the slider (83.9 MPH to 81.4).

Santana’s heater has been the worst among any starter chucking at least 40 frames (a stunning -4.1 runs/100 pitches, after a +0.11 mark in ’08). Hitters are making more contact (84.2% contact rate, up from 77.1% in ’08) and swinging at fewer outside pitches (24.7% in ’09, 31.7% in ’08). Santana looks like damaged goods.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Millwood’s regression shouldn’t come as a complete surprise, as his ERA was far surpassing his peripherals. There’s still a sizable gap between his ERA (3.46) and FIP (4.73), but it has lessened after Millwood surrendered 17 earned runs over his past 17.1 innings. Texas’ slick leather (8th in team UZR) helps a pitch-to-contact hurler like Millwood, but he’s more serviceable mid-rotation starter than ace.

Dioner Navarro, Rays

The 25 year-old Navarro performed admirably for the Rays in 2008 (.330 wOBA), but the former Yankee and Dodger has plummeted to a .256 mark this season. He’s not getting many bounces (.245 BABIP), but Navarro’s plate discipline is non-existent (2.8 BB% in 2009, 7.4% in ’08). His outside-swing% is up from 23.2% to 27.2%, with a rise in first-pitch strike% from 52.8% to 57.5%. Navarro was worth 2.7 Wins Above Replacement in 2008, but he has been sub-replacement level in ’09 (-0.1 WAR).

When Jason Giambi took his on-base skills and gargantuan power from the Bay to the Bronx after the 2001 season, he was the recipient of a mammoth seven-year, $120 million contract. But let’s be honest: it was strange to see this long-locked, tattooed fellow transform into a clean-cut, cordial Yankee.

While the mustachioed one managed to rage against the machine as much as grooming requirements allowed, his time with the Yankees was something of a mixed bag. Giambi posted a wOBA in excess of .400 in four of his seven seasons with the Yankees, but as the back loaded portion of his pact kicked in, his value to the club did not match up to the bloated salary commitment. Despite compiling a combined .383 wOBA over the 2006-2008 seasons, Giambi made $67.2 million while providing the Bombers with approximately $26.5 million in performance value.

Giambi made a whopping $23.4 million in 2008, but he’ll make less than a fifth of that sum after coming to terms with the A’s on a one-year, $4.5 million deal with a $5M option for the 2010 season. While Giambi’s salary had become cumbersome in recent years, he looks like an outright bargain at that price. The soon-to-be 38 year-old may no longer be the same guy who slugged near .650 over his last two seasons with Oakland in 2000 and 2001, but he can still provide some value to fantasy owners while invigorating a rapidly improving A’s lineup.

In 2008, Giambi rebounded from an injury-shortened 2007 campaign to post a .247/.373/.502 line, with a .377 wOBA in 565 PA. As always, the Giambino drew a boatload of walks (14.2 BB%) and still managed to put a pretty solid charge into the baseball (.255 ISO). That ISO figure tied Houston’s Lance Berkman for the 14th-best mark in the majors.

Interestingly, Giambi has actually become a little more of a free swinger as he has advanced in age. He’s still a very disciplined batsman, but Jason’s Outside-Swing% has climbed in each of the past four seasons, from an incredibly low 10.2% in 2005 to 19.2% in 2008, and he has increased his percentage of strikes swung at from 60.8% in ’05 to 63.2% in ’08. The increased number of swings seem to have had a slight negative effect on his walk rate. Still, when you’re “only” drawing a free pass 14-15% of the time, you’re doing quite well. Giambi tied former-Athletic-now-Yankee Nick Swisher for the 14th-best walk rate in the big leagues.

Granted, Giambi will be leaving a wonderful environment for left-handed power hitters (per the Bill James Handbook, Yankee Stadium has a 3-year HR park factor of 120 for lefties) for less-inviting terrain: McAfee Coliseum’s HR park factor for southpaw batters over the past three years is exactly neutral, at 100. However, even accounting for the lefty-friendly dimensions of his home ballpark, Giambi’s offensive performance in 2008 was 21.5 runs above that of an average hitter. That ranked him just outside the top 10 among first baseman.

Giambi’s signing also has the likely consequence of sending one of the least productive first baseman in ’08, Daric Barton, back to the minors (Barton was -7.2 runs compared to an average batter). Though many question his power ceiling, there’s still reason to hope for better things from the 23 year-old down the line. A career .299/.411/.455 hitter in the minors, Barton is young enough to put his ugly start behind him and emerge as a solid cog for the A’s down the road. Still, the Athletics may be closer to contention than many realize, and the difference between Daric’s 2008 showing (0.4 WAR) and Giambi’s (2.6 WAR) was substantial.

Jason Giambi may no longer be the unstoppable force that annihilated American League pitching earlier in the decade, but he still possesses a patient and potent stick that should be of use to both the A’s and fantasy squads. In both real baseball and fantasy, position scarcity matters; it’s far easier to find a suitable player at a position like first base than it is to find, say, a good shortstop. Once the top-tier first baseman are gone, your best bet is to wait on a guy like Giambi.