Archive for Jason Frasor

With Sergio Santos being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Nestor Molina on Tuesday afternoon, it seems to signal the raising of a white flag of sorts on the South side. Santos had a pretty spectacular year, serving primarily as the team closer, posting a 2.87 FIP with a staggering 13.07 K/9, saving 30 games over 63.1 innings pitched. Santos is presumably the closer in Toronto, where he will have great fantasy value, but who will be handling ninth inning duties for the White Sox is very much up in the air — although they have plenty of options.

First in line would presumably be Matt Thornton, who entered 2011 splitting duties with Chris Sale, and then kinda-sorta handed the full time closer role, and then subsequently blew up and was relegated back to set-up duties. And while he wasn’t quite as dominant has he was in the previous two seasons, he was still pretty nasty — putting up a 2.62 FIP and a 9.50 K/9 rate. His strikeouts were down from 12.02 K/9 in 2010, but even at 9.50, it was right in line with his career average. He was stung by some bad luck with a strand rate of just 61.2% whereas his career rate sits at 74.7%, not to mention a BABIP of .326 where his career rate is .295. After a horrific first month of the season (5.91 FIP), Thornton was mostly back to his old self, throwing 51 innings, giving up 45 hits, striking out 53, allowing just one home run, posting an ERA of 2.45 and holding opponents to a .232/.286/.289 triple-slash. But if there’s truly a fire sale going on, it’s probable that they’ll be taking offers for Thornton too.

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This post comes to you all the way from Tokyo town. I just flew here today (yesterday? tomorrow?) and boy are my arms tired. (badum-ching!) As you can tell, it’s been a looong day. Let me quickly get to a couple waiver wire ideas before I pass out.

Shaun Marcum
Our shallow league special won’t be on the wire long, but if you missed out, don’t worry. There’s plenty of reasons to be suspicious of Mr. Marcum. First, even before he missed all of 2009 with elbow surgery, he hasn’t been the picture of health. His major league high is 159 major league innings in a season, and 168 total innings in a season. He doesn’t have a nice K/9 (7.13 career) or ground ball rate (40.3% career), and though his career ERA looks okay (3.95), his career FIP is much less interesting (4.81). That’s probably because he’s somehow managed to put together 400+ innings with a .273 BABIP. In his first start he had a sparkling .068 BABIP even. If it wasn’t such an obvious idea, actually, it seems that the best move here would be to sell high. Here’s a bet his ERA ends up in the low 4s where it belongs with his peripherals.

Dexter Fowler
It takes a little deeper bench in order to take advantage of the fact that Fowler is being summarily dropped in many leagues, but the reward is there for the patient manager. While Seth Smith is definitely a nice pickup in most leagues since he’s getting the lion’s share of at-bats by taking on righties, Fowler is not yet chopped liver. Obviously, the team is looking at Fowler’s nice .322/.374/.470 major league line against lefties (and his correspondingly putrid .228/.343/.353 line against righties) and making what they believe to be the best short-term move for the team. The problem is that this split has only come in 461 total major league at-bats (which is not a significant level for splits like these), and his minor league splits were non-existent (.843 OPS vs lefties, .859 OPS vs righties). Expect Fowler’s upside to will out and force some sort of move by management (Brad Hawpe, I’m looking at you), and in the meantime, just put him on your bench and slot him in against lefties. You’ll enjoy both short- and long-term return.

Scott Downs
The deep league special is a speculative play based on an incredibly tiny sample size seen in one light. Yes, Jason Frasor blew one save. And yes, it’s one inning. And yes, he probably won’t be removed from the closer’s role in Toronto today. On the other hand, Downs has been amazingly consistent for three years now (FIPs around 3.33 all three years), and managers love consistency. Compare Frasor’s range on his FIPs (2.99 to 4.55) and you’ll see that it’s not at all assured who’s going to have the better year in that pen this year. Throw in the fact that Frasor has been linked to the Twins in trade rumors, and Downs looks like a good bet if you’re a-speculatin’.

The news came down the pipe this morning that Joe Nathan has a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament and is, in all likelihood, headed for Tommy John surgery. No pitchers in recent memory have rehabbed through a torn UCL. A moment of silence for Nathan’s 2010 season, and for all of the keeper league owners that were happy with their elite closer.

Now let’s have some fun with rampant closer speculation. The front-runner has to be Jon Rauch because of his mythical ‘experience in the role.’ Yes, because he closed for 40 innings in the National League, he’ll probably be the front runner to assume the mantle in Minnesota. Then again, one has to be concerned with his strikeout rate, which peaked in 2006 (8.47), recovered in 2008 (8.29) and dropped off a table last year in Arizona (6.30 overall). In general, he offers some nice strikeout ability (though not plus for a closer) and an above-average walk rate (2.89 career, 3.46 ’09 ML average).

On the other hand, there’s been some change in his mix as he’s aged, and it doesn’t seem to be good news. He’s using his fastball less every year (down to 52.8% from 67.9% in 2006) and replacing it with his curveball (up from 3.3% to 15.5% last year). The problem? His fastball has been worth 17.1 runs by linear weights over his career, His curveball? -1.3. Yeah, where is that fastball going?

Could the Twins instead turn to a man with a funky delivery that has his own blog and a penchant for juicing? What about Pat Neshek? He owns a sparkling 10.56 K/9 for his career, a decent 2.76 BB/9, and despite slight gopherball problems (1.12 HR/9 career), has a sparkling WHIP (0.96). He’s coming off TJ surgery of his own, but has pitched live ball in Spring Training (2 innings, 2 Ks and 1 hit if you must know). There is a whiff of Brad Ziegler about him, but here are his splits against lefties, from our very own splits pages: 8.59 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP (good), 55.9% FB, 12.1% HR/FB, 1.64 HR/9, 4.70 xFIP (bad). This is all against 185 total lefty batters faced… this sample is not big enough to say definitively that he cannot handle lefties. This book is not closed. And since it is such a fun read, there’s at least one fantasy analyst that is banging the drum for Neshek to take over the closer’s role for the year.

What about Matt Guerrier? What about him? With a below-average 6.01 career K/9, and no corresponding excellent ground ball rate (45.5% career) he’s squarely third on this list. His .222 BABIP last year will surely regress and the Twins will once again have the okay guy they’ve always had. No closer here, despite last year’s seemingly excellent numbers.

One last note – the possibility that the closer comes from outside the organization is reasonably high. The Cubs inquired with the Jays about Jason Frasor, and because that team is rebuilding, it seems that maybe also Scott Downs might be available. Anthony Castrovince, the Cleveland Indians reporter for MLB.com, speculated on Twitter about Kerry Wood being moved to the Twinkies. These options may all be more palatable to a Twins team that wants to compete in their new stadium. Hey, they all have ‘experience in the role.’

Toronto Blue Jays signed RHP Kevin Gregg to a one-year, $2.75 million contract, with a pair of club options.

According to Jordan Bastian’s MLB.com report, Gregg’s pact has two different club options. After next season’s Fall Classic, the Jays can do any of the following: say sayonara, retain Gregg at $4.5 million for 2011 or pick up a two-year option covering 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75 million. Gregg qualified as a Type A free agent, but the Cubs didn’t offer him arbitration. Thus, no draft pick changes hands.

The bespectacled, 31 year-old right-hander saw his ERA rise from the mid-three’s in 2007 and 2008 to a mediocre 4.72 mark this past year. However, a closer look at Gregg’s peripherals suggests his ’09 might have actually been better than the two previous seasons.

Gregg whiffed 9.31 batters per nine innings with Chicago, issuing 3.93 BB/9. The K rate was the second-best figure of the former Angel, Marlin and Cub’s career, and the walk rate was his lowest since 2006. He garnered more outside swings in ’09 (26.1%) than at any other point in his big league career. His BABIP wasn’t high (.277), nor was his rate of stranding runners on base very low (73.5). So, what’s the deal with the ERA?

Home runs. An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 39 GB%), Gregg had very low home run per fly ball rates in 2007 (5.9%) and 2008 (4.4%). In ’09, a whopping 15.3 percent of fly balls hit against Gregg became souvenirs. For comparison, the big league average is usually around 11-12 percent.

He was fortunate in ’07 and ’08, and had lousy luck in ’09. These things happen with relievers tossing 60-80 frames per year: a couple extra wall-scrapers are hit against a guy, and his overall line suffers. Gregg’s xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, was 4.16 in 2009. That was actually lower than ’07 (4.74) and ’08 (4.59).

Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with a late-game reliever. He’s a three-pitch guy, tossing a 91-92 MPH fastball (+0.67 runs/100 career), a low-80’s slider (+0.11) and the occasional mid-80’s splitter (+1.13). Over the past couple of years, Gregg has thrown fewer fastballs, mixing in more sliders instead. Perhaps as a result, Gregg’s percentage of pitchers within the zone has decreased. His InZone% was 50.4 in 2007, 49.5 in 2008 and 44.8 in 2009 (49-51% MLB average).

In Toronto, Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for save ops, assuming neither of those two are bartered before Opening Day.

Downs, 34 in March, is a groundball-centric lefty who uses a 89-90 MPH sinker with hellacious tailing action in on southpaw batters, as well as a big-breaking mid-70’s curveball. Downs has moved in the opposite direction as Gregg, progressively tossing more fastballs (from 63% in ’07 to 74% in ’09). He has a three-year xFIP of 3.38. Downs’ 2009 season was interrupted by a left foot injury that required surgery, as well as a strained right hamstring.

Frasor, 32, is a diminutive righty who pumps 93-94 MPH gas. That fastball has been a plus offering, with a career +0.94 run value per 100 pitches. He also features an average low-80’s slider (+0.02), with a few changeups/splitters sprinkled in. Frasor’s three-year xFIP is 4.01.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for our three closer contenders:

Gregg: 67 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.32 FIP
Downs: 49 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.67 FIP
Frasor: 51 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

Gregg figures to rebound somewhat next season, but intermittent control and fly ball proclivities make him an iffy high-leverage reliever. Toronto’s ninth-inning situation bears watching over the next couple of months.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Frasor (36%) – Those hunting for saves should be thrilled to find a closer like Frasor on the waiver wire this late in the year. Yes, he blew a save last night but previously he had saves in four consecutive outings. Frasor has a good strikeout numbers with a 8.71 K/9 and his WHIP (1.03) is very good, too.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Brian Duensing (26%) – After 14 outings in relief, the Twins moved Duensing to the rotation, where he has enjoyed more success. In his six starts, Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP. He also has 28 Ks in 36 IP as a starter. The lefty topped out at 93.8 mph with his fastball in his last start. Pitch Type Values show both his fastball and slider being plus pitches.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Tim Stauffer (12%) – After starting the season 1-6, Stauffer has turned things around, going 3-0 in his last four starts and losing a win when Heath Bell blew the save in the ninth inning in Stauffer’s last start. In his last four games, Stauffer has a 2.22 ERA and a 1.397 WHIP. Stauffer is not overpowering and has not piled up strikeouts, but his changeup has proven to be a very effective pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Eric Young Jr. (7%) – His father’s game was based on speed and the apple does not fall far from the tree. The elder Young notched 465 SB in his 15 year career in the majors. In four minor league seasons, the son stole 46 or more bases each time, topping out with 87 steals in 2006. Junior has three SB in his last four games with the Rockies. Playing time is going to be an issue, but if/when he gets in the game, the steals will follow.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Nick Johnson (51%) – While it is true that Johnson does not have the power you would like to see from your first baseman, it is also true that he has been productive when he has been able to stay healthy. Since coming back from the DL, Johnson has a .361-1-11-9-0 line in 10 games.

It’s a rainy Thursday across most of the baseball world. Look for delays and a few postponements. 13 games are scheduled. On to the links…

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse lists a few sell-high sluggers. The man at the top of his list? Adrian Gonzalez. “After hitting nine home runs in April and 11 in May, Gonzalez has only parked two in June,” writes Bardeen. “In fact, he hasn’t hit a home run since June 2nd when he capped off four straight days with a dinger. Since June 2nd Gonzalez has been walked 16 times and only has six base hits. That seems to be the new way to pitch to the Padres slugger, you walk him.”

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup especially likes Jason Frasor in this week’s “Waiver Wired” column. The right-hander has been tabbed to take over ninth-inning duties in Toronto with Scott Downs hitting the disabled list. Frasor has a 1.90 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 19/3 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings this season, leaving opposing hitters with a .184 batting average.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports points out that Alfonso Soriano has attempted “just two swipes since May 1.” The outfielder swiped 41 bags in 2006, 19 during an injury-shortened 2007, and 19 in 2008. He has just six through Wednesday. Perhaps his knee is still bothering him, or maybe he has decided to give up on the running game for good. Either way, it’s bad news for fantasy owners.

For those of you clamoring for more information on international prospects, the fellas over at RazzBall have taken a closer look at Junichi Tazawa and Dayan Viciedo. Tazawa is under Boston’s control, and Viciedo is a member of the White Sox.

Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com is disappointed in Adrian Beltre, who is way off his career pace in almost every category this season. With free agency looming in 2010, Saponara believes the third baseman might be trying too hard: “The numbers do support that theory as well. Beltre is only walking 3.7% of the time, a far cry from his 7% BB career average. He’s also seeing fewer pitches per at bat (3.44) than his career average (3.77) and swinging at over 37% of pitches outside the strike-zone. No wonder he has a higher ground ball percentage and 12 GIDP (grounded into double plays) when he had all of 11 last season.”

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