Archive for Jamie Moyer

Today’s Roto Riteup features a guy with bad knees, someone who can’t hit, and a man who’s older than the earth himself. Sadly, all three of people are different and not one pathetic man.

–  Chase Utley is not going to be ready for opening day, as his knee problems keep on keepin’ on. I had suspicions that Utley was going to have issues both staying healthy and producing this year, ranking him 20th among second baseman while my compatriots place him an average of 9th. Utley is going to have these problems the rest of his career, so it’s not like you should be expecting a bounceback in keeper leagues.

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Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 12. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Wade Davis – In his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA. While he has two home starts this week, you might want to bench him until you see some better results.

Gio Gonzalez – Roughed up in his last two starts, both on the road, Gonzalez returns home for two games this week. In Oakland he has a 2.90 ERA in six games. Make sure he is active for games against the Reds and Pirates.

Jamie Moyer – A terrible outing against the Red Sox two starts ago has masked a string of solid pitching by Moyer since early May. Activate him for his two home starts this week.

Jon Niese – Since returning from the disabled list, Niese is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA. He has a tough matchup against Justin Verlander in his first outing but has two home starts, where the Mets are 24-10. Keep him active this week.

Jason Vargas – Not everything has been disappointing this season in Seattle. Vargas has a 2.88 ERA and has hurled a Quality Start in 11 of his last 12 outings. Get him in your lineup for this week’s action against the Cubs and Brewers.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Verlander, Lincecum, Lester, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Danks, Dempster, Burnett, J. Garcia, E. Santana, Latos, Leake, Baker, Cecil, A. Sanchez, L. Hernandez, Hunter, Chacin, Talbot, Guthrie, Narveson, Ohlendorf, R. Lopez, Chen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 10 pitchers and how they fared.

Cueto – Advised to Start. W, 6.75 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.667 WHIP (2 starts)
E. Jackson – Advised to sit. 4.26 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.895 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 15 Ks, 0.753 WHIP (2)
Matsuzaka – Advised to start. W, 0.00 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.750 WHIP (1)
Slowey – Advised to start. W, 3.86 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.143 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week Four 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

PHI – Jamie Moyer
LAD – Josh Towers
DET – Justin Verlander

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

PIT – Daniel McCutchen
LAD – Vicente Padilla
SEA – Ian Snell

In each of his three starts this year, Moyer has gone six innings. In his first two outings, he gave up five runs but in his last outing he allowed just two unearned runs. Moyer his being his usual stingy self with walks and his strikeout rate is up slightly from a year ago. He has been a bit unlucky with home runs allowed, which along with a 60.6 LOB%, helps explain how his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA. Moyer is a recommended option in only the deepest of mixed leagues. But his chance to pick up wins makes him a useful NL-only pitcher.

Last December, the Dodgers signed Towers to a minor league deal. After three starts in Triple-A Albuquerque, where he went 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA, the Dodgers are expected to promote him to replace Padilla, who went on the 15-day DL with a sore elbow. There is no guarantee that Towers will get two starts next week, as Los Angeles could shuffle its rotation and have Charlie Haeger move up and get two starts, instead.

Because Verlander finished last year with 19 Wins and a 3.45 ERA, it is easy to forget that he got off to a slow start in 2009. But he started last year 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA after three starts. This year he is 1-1 with a 6.95 ERA after four games. His velocity is just as good as it was a season ago, but batters are making more contact this year. Verlander is allowing more fly balls and more of those balls are leaving the park. But Verlander has been hurt by a 55.6 LOB%. On the whole, Verlander is still a must-start fantasy pitcher.

At first glance, Game 6 starter Andy Pettitte has entered the metronome section of his career. For fantasy managers, that’s a level that is of borderline value in standard mixed leagues, but strong veteran value in deeper leagues.

Consider that he’s spent the last three years in the Bronx putting up a 4.05-4.51 ERA, won either 14 or 15 games per year, pitched between 194 innings and 215, struck out between 141 and 158, and put up a WHIP between 1.38 and 1.43. “Knowing” what you are going to get has sneaky value later in a deep league draft when the other owners are reaching.

Is there any reason to doubt that this 37-year old metronome won’t keep ticking? He is around the age when pre-steroid era pitchers began to decline precipitously, and there are some hints of cracks in the foundation.

His home run rate has always been a strength (0.77 HR/9 career), and with his strikeout and walk rates being only above-average (6.61 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 career), it’s fairly important for him to keep the balls in the yard. The bad news is that his home run rate has steadily been increasing in his second stint in pinstripes (.67 to .84 to .92 in 2009). The rate has oscillated like this before. He’s had three years with worse rates in his career than the number he put up in 2009. But this sort of gradual decline has not happened before. Fantasy owners may reasonably expect his second year of a 1+ HR/9 next year.

When looking at his pitch selection and the linear weights, it’s striking that he’s developed his cutter over his career and that the pitch has become more effective the more often he’s used it. That has to count as a good sign.

The bad sign in his pitch mix might be the disappearance of his slider. At one point in his career, he was throwing the pitch over 10% of the time and as recently as 2003-2004 it was averaging about +5 runs a year. Last year, the southpaw threw the pitch 0.1% of the time and it didn’t figure into his results at all according to the linear weights.

With the slider being a neutral pitch (-2.7 runs since 2005), should we be sorry to see it go? It moves less than his slider, and maybe it’s easier on his shoulder or elbow and will lead to longevity. The cutter is six or seven miles per hour faster than his slider according to one system, so maybe using the pitch more is an effort to avoid falling into a Jamie Moyer-esque “Slow, slower and slowest” pattern. That may not play so well in the American League. There are also some pitch-classification issues going on here. One system has Pettitte throwing the slider not at all, and another over 17% of the time last year. Whichever is true, the takeaway is that there is some flux in his arsenal as he ages.

Comparing him to Moyer may be overstating things. Moyer’s “fast”ball barely breaks 80, and Pettitte’s is almost ten miles per hour faster. But it does appear that there is some decline in Pettitte’s numbers and he will soon no longer be the safe late-round deep-league metronome that he has been in recent years.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

Three day games have already gotten underway and there are seven more contests on deck. Let’s get to some fantasy links as the season marches on…

Dustin Hockensmith of Imaginary Diamond lists 10 young players who could prove to be fantasy sleepers in 2010. As Hockensmith notes, “Some of these guys — Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Hanson, Neftali Feliz and Rick Porcello — are making an impact right now.”

The boys over at Fake Teams work through a discussion-inducing question: “Who would you rather have, Justin Upton or Matt Kemp?” Both have shot up in fantasy value this season and will be taken among the top tier of outfielders in drafts next season.

Not ready to begin thinking about 2010? Fantasy Baseball Junkie has you covered with a look at “vulture win opportunities” for the month of September. The blog post suggests adding guys like Jamie Moyer and Alfredo Aceves, who leach off starters like Pedro Martinez and Joba Chamberlain, respectively, for wins. The strategy may come off as odd, but it does make some sense.

With Chad Qualls, Mariano Rivera and Huston Street hitting the bench recently with injuries, there are an awful lot of saves up for grabs. Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse runs us around some of those situations.

Troy Patterson of Roto Savants previews Buster Posey’s September fantasy value. For those who didn’t catch the news, the elite prospect was called up to the majors on Wednesday to aid the Giants in their push toward the playoffs. Bengie Molina is hurting and reportedly disgruntled, so there may be some playing time available.

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup spins us around the league with a group of recommended waiver adds. Brian Joura handles that duty wonderfully for RotoGraphs, but it’s always nice to have multiple perspectives.

Have a link, comment, question or fantasy blog you think I should be reading? Send me an e-mail and tell me about it. Or find me on Twitter.