Archive for jake fox

Seated quite comfortably on a bar stool at my favorite watering hole, I looked up at the television, and the vision was unmistakable. The green infield grass and the diamond it outlined – baseball is back and it felt like normalcy had finally returned to my life after slagging through the insufferable images of the sport where they kick things and constantly feign injury.

Yes indeed, Spring Training – everyone starts with the same number of wins and hope trumps reality. Optimism not only surrounds real-life clubs, but it also permeates us fantasy folk — and it’s almost a little impossible to try and eschew Spring results as we all look for information on who is going to help us claim our bragging rights in our respective leagues. Velocity, best shapers, worst shapers, all of this noise that we know probably doesn’t matter seeps into our consciousness despite efforts to the contrary.

Looking back at 2011, I can’t help but think I should have seen the writing on the wall. In the Spring, Mike Morse hit nine home runs and slugged .818. Asdrubal Cabrera hit .364/.400/.636. Alex Gordon hit .343/.459/.729 with six home runs and 23 RBI in just 70 at-bats. Ryan Roberts hit .509/.603/.660! On the flipside, Adam Dunn hit .224/.333/.448 with three home runs and 27 strikeouts over 67 at-bats. I should have seen it coming!

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As a Chicago Cub, Jake Fox was a swing-from-the-heels slugger without a defensive home.

The 6-0, 210 pound Fox roamed around the diamond in the minors, logging time at catcher, first base, the outfield corners and third base.

But the Cubs are set at the infield corners with Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Alfonso Soriano, he of bum wheels and -0.7 WAR in 2009 (only five years and $90M left on that contract!), will patrol left field. Kosuke Fukudome could shift back to right field in 2010 if Chicago adds a center fielder. And, Fox hasn’t really been taken seriously as a backstop.

As such, a trade to the A.L. seemed likely. Yesterday, Fox was indeed shipped to the Junior Circuit. The Oakland A’s acquired the 27 year-old righty batter and IF Aaron Miles for RHPs Jeff Gray and Ronny Morla and OF Matt Spencer.

Fox famously went all Babe Ruth on the Pacific Coast League in 2009, blasting 17 HR and posting a .409/.495/.841 line in 194 PA. The University of Michigan product holds a career .293/.357/.528 triple-slash in the minors, with a .235 ISO. Fox has mostly hacked and asked questions later, walking in 6.9% of his plate appearances.

With the Cubs in desperate need of some offensive thump, Fox logged 241 PA in the big leagues while shuffling between third base, the outfield corners, and first base (he logged a few innings at catcher, too). He compiled a .259/.311/.468 line, popping 11 homers with a .208 ISO.

Fox remained ultra-aggressive, chasing 37.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). He also took a cut at 77.8% of in-zone offerings, compared to the 66% major league average. His 56.7% swing rate ranked in the top 10 in the majors among batters with 240+ PA. Fox walked in just 6.1% of his PA.

It’s not a good idea to put too much stock in less than half a season’s worth of pitch data, but Fox was greeted with plenty of off-speed stuff in 2009. Big league pitchers tossed him a fastball just 44.5% of the time, the lowest percentage among hitters with 240+ PA. Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the ’03 draft hammered heaters (+0.51 runs/100), while posting negative run values vs. curves, sliders and changeups.

Now in Oakland, Fox could figure into the competition for AB’s at DH and third base. Jack Cust, coming off of a .342 wOBA season, is a possible trade/non-tender candidate. Fox’s qualifications at third are suspect. But with Eric Chavez and Dallas McPherson his primary competition (assuming Brett Wallace opens the year in the minors), Fox could hold an advantage by simply being ambulatory.

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance. Fox’s power and newfound opportunity in Oakland make him a more appealing fantasy target. Just don’t get too giddy over a couple dominant months in the cornfields of Iowa.

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.

The Chicago Cubs finally found a way to make room for the hottest hitter in the minor leagues. Jake Fox has reportedly been recalled from triple-A Iowa, with infielder Aaron Miles landing on the disabled list.

Fox, a first baseman, was leading the triple-A Pacific Coast League in all three Triple-Crown categories: average (.423), home runs (17), and RBI (50) in 149 at-bats. Now, before you get too excited, there is some fine print that comes with Fox. 1) He’s not your typical prospect at the age of 26 (going on 27 in July). 2) The Pacific Coast League is an extremely good hitter’s league. 3) He cannot play defensive to save his life and is a below-average first baseman and has no hope of playing another position.

As we all know, Derrek Lee is the incumbent first baseman in Chicago and although he’s struggling (.248/.314/.416), he’s due $13 million annually through 2010. Sweet Lou is desperate for offense, but he’s not about to abandon one of his veteran regulars. As such, Fox’s playing opportunities should be limited to pinch-hitting duties and the occasional start at first base. His situation is actually fairly similar to that of Micah Hoffpauir, another over-aged rookie who posted solid offensive numbers in the minors. Hoffpauir, though, has more defensive flexibility.

Last season, while playing at double-A, Fox hit 25 homers in 388 at-bats and posted a triple-slash line of .307/.397/.580 with an ISO of .273. He actually appeared in seven games with Chicago in 2007 but hit just .143/.200/.286 (although both his hits were doubles). Fox was originally selected by the Cubs in the third round of the 2003 draft out of the University of Michigan. Drafted as a catcher, Fox played himself off the position by 2007. For interest’s sake, here is a sneak peek at his pre-draft scouting report from Baseball America:

Fox enjoyed a breakout season with the bat, hitting .365 and leading the Big 10 Conference in homers (14) and RBIs (63). He drives balls 450 feet in batting practice, and might have had more homers if he didn’t play his home games in cavernous Ray Fisher Stadium. He is exceptionally strong at 6 feet and 210 pounds, and has worked hard to improve his catching. He still has just average skills behind the plate, with below-average hands and arm strength.

The best scenario for Fox (barring an injury to Lee) would be for him to perform well in limited duty over the next one to two months until he can be packaged in a trade to an American League club for a veteran who can help the Cubbies in the race to a World Series title.

After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.