Archive for jaime garcia

On Tuesday night, the Twins shut out the Blue Jays, 5-0, and while it was a superb performance by Jose Berrios, there wasn’t much of interest as far as relief work goes.

Or so I thought. A commenter for Wednesday morning’s Bullpen Report, docgooden85, pointed out a few things that are worth noting for those speculating on future Twins saves. Trevor Hildenberger, who we have listed in the “First Up” column in the closer’s grid, did pitch the eighth inning, but in the aftermath of a couple of recent ineffective performances, he did it with a five-run lead. Also, in Ryan Pressly (1.38 ERA and 18 strikeouts over his last 13 innings) and the recovering Addison Reed (elbow impingement), Hildenberger has a couple of rivals for saves down the stretch, should the Twins trade Fernando Rodney.
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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – I get the feeling Minor needs just one more outing before he’s wildly owned. He’s sporting a 2.53 ERA with a 29.3% K rate thus far, supported by a 3.38 FIP and 12.9% whiff rate. He’s locating his slider well on both sides of the plate, trusting his changeup plenty as both a strike-getter and finisher, while he’s being careful with his fastball to prevent the longball (5.6% HR/FB rate thus far). I can even see Minor improving as he gets more innings as a starter, since 2018 marks the first year he’s been handed the role since the 2014 season. April is all about getting on the right trains early, and Minor could be leaving the station soon.

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Last week, I reviewed my NFBC Draft Champions League results. I think some of my speculative saves (Joel Peralta early on; Adam Ottavino later on) could come to fruition, and I am pretty bullish on the depth of my rotation. I have a sundry of sleepers that could provide supplemental value: Daniel Norris, Randall Delgado, Jaime Garcia, Rafael Montero, Trevor Cahill and Robbie Erlin.

With that said, some of the feedback was helpful. I agree that based on my closing situation (among other things), I can’t possibly compete for the grand prize unless I get very lucky. I also do not have enough sure-thing starters to punt saves altogether to at least ensure a league win.

I don’t agree with a lack of depth on offense. I have CI/OF flexibility and a sundry of power (Justin Smoak, Travis Snider) and speed (Billy Burns, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) on the bench. My second catching slot is in question, but Caleb Joseph could provide some surprise value until Matt Wieters returns. I like Andrew Susac, but I need to hope for a Buster Posey or Brandon Belt injury.

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You have seen some Tout and LABR reviews for the past few weeks here on the site. We all can’t be so lucky to participate in such glorious leagues. On the other hand, we can all take part in NFBC leagues.

NFBC’s $150 NFBC Draft Champions leagues are a perfect format for me:

a) I have impending time constraints including my first child in June!

b) I didn’t have to ask my wife for permission to use our mutual bank account.

c) I was able to dwell on each pick if/when needed (8 hours to make a pick) and

d) There are no trades or free agent pick-ups once the draft is complete. This feature is my wife’s favorite, and I appreciate the preventative collusion measures. I am also much more interested in draft strategy and player projections/rankings/draft position than I am jumping on small sample sizes in-season.

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According to ERA, the Cardinals had the sixth best starting staff in 2014. But according to both WAR and xFIP, they were only the 17th best staff in the league. Every starter who threw at least 100 innings for the Cardinals had an ERA that was much lower than their xFIP/SIERA. Combined, the gap between the staff’s ERA and xFIP was -0.36, the third largest negative gap in the league. And our depth charts/projections don’t have any have any Cardinal starter significantly outperforming his peripherals again. Read the rest of this entry »

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.

Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.

Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).

Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.

Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers

Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.

Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):

And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.

Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.

St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.

Scott Kazmir, Angels

Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.

The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.

While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.

Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Josh Hamilton – There were a lot of doubts about Hamilton coming into the season, specifically if he could remain healthy. So far, so good on that end, although there will always be health-related concerns around him. Hamilton is laying off more pitches outside of the zone and has the highest BB% (11.6) of his career. Some will look at his .333 BABIP and 14.3 HR/FB rate and conclude this is the best he is going to do all season. But from a fantasy perspective, Hamilton could see a big rise in RBIs in the coming months. The Rangers have already removed OBP sinkhole Julio Borbon from the top of the order and hopefully Ian Kinsler can slot into his customary position ahead of Hamilton and bring his .391 OBP with him.

Justin Masterson – An 0-3 record and a 5.40 ERA has Masterson owned in only 41 percent of CBS Sports leagues. But it is hard to imagine anything but the shallowest leagues where a 10.46 K/9 is not worthy of a roster spot. Masterson’s walk rate has never been good in the majors, and this year is no exception with a 4.05 BB/9. But what is really hurting him this year is a 26.7 HR/FB rate. Masterson has allowed 4 HR in 26.2 IP. His xFIP checks in at 3.11. Previously Masterson has had normal HR/FB rates and if it regresses to those levels the rest of the year, he should be a very valuable fantasy pitcher, even on the 10-16 Indians.

Scott Rolen – The past three seasons, Rolen has played in 128, 115 and 112 games so he is not the most durable player out there. But he remains a productive hitter while in the lineup. And right now Rolen’s numbers are being dragged down by a .239 BABIP. He has a nice .250 ISO, thanks to 6 HR in 84 ABs. Obviously he will not be able to keep up that HR pace, but Rolen should easily surpass preseason expectations that he would hit just 10-14 HR. He has really enjoyed hitting in the Great American Ballpark, as lifetime Rolen has 14 HR in 208 ABs at the GABP. And once he raises his current .200 BABIP in road parks, Rolen could be on his way to his best season since 2006.

SELL

Jaime Garcia – Everyone’s favorite rookie pitcher, Garcia has seen his CBS Sports ownership jump from 24 percent at the beginning of the year to 84 percent now. We know all about his phenomenal ground ball rate and how pitching coach Dave Duncan has had success in the past with these types of hurlers. But now is the time to sell high. He has a 3.73 xFIP and RoS ZiPS projects him with a 4.43 ERA (although its IP estimate seems way off). Garcia is likely to remain a useful to good fantasy pitcher the rest of the season, but like Joel Pineiro can tell you, eventually you give up some homers regardless of how many ground balls you allow.

Kevin Gregg – If you look at Gregg’s FanGraphs page you might conclude that his success this season is due to throwing fewer fastballs and sliders and more cutters and splitters. Last year both his cutter and splitter were below-average pitches and both have been tremendous in 2010, helping Gregg to a 64.3 GB%. But PitchFX guru Mike Fast thinks that Gregg has not really changed his arsenal much at all and that it is more of a reclassification of the BIS identification system. Gregg has lost his closer’s role for the Marlins in 2008 and the Cubs in 2009. Right now he is on a nice hot streak so look to sell high before regression hits since he likely has not added anything new to his repertoire.

Aramis Ramirez – Many people view Ramirez as a buy candidate, since he got off to such a terrible start (perhaps due to not being fully recovered from injury) and his BABIP is so low. But the strikeouts are alarming, with his 25.7 K% the first time since his rookie year in 1998 that it tops 20 percent. Ramirez is not chasing more pitches out of the zone and his O-Contact% is nearly identical to what it was last year. Instead, it appears that most of the trouble comes from catching up to fastballs. Ramirez has a Z-Contact% down over 9 percent from last year and his wFB/C has gone from 1.36 a season ago to -4.90 in 2010. Meanwhile his wSL/C has nearly tripled, going from 0.55 to 1.44. Ramirez has started to hit better in the last week (only 4 Ks in his last 38 ABs, although with a .184 AVG) but there should be at least a little bit of concern about his slider-speed bat. This is not a recommendation to sell at all costs but to see if you can get close to his preseason value. RoS ZiPS still forecasts him to finish with 20 HR and 97 RBIs, nearly identical to its preseason prediction of 21 and 101. But I am not optimistic that he will hit those marks.

HUNCH

Brian Matusz – Most people would shy away from a rookie pitcher in the AL East who is a flyball pitcher in front of the Orioles outfield defense. While coolstandings.com shows the remainder of the Orioles schedule against teams with a .545 winning percentage, I like Matusz to exceed his Updated ZiPS marks of 10 W, 4.51 ERA and 7.16 K/9.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Five.

Brett Cecil – After getting the Rays and the Red Sox in his first two starts this year, Cecil gets a break from AL East opponents this week with road starts in Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with a combined 18-25 record. Cecil has allowed 2 HR in 12.2 IP but the Indians are 13th in the American League in HR. He will face a harder time on that score against the White Sox, but outside of HR, the Chicago offense has been terrible this year. Southpaws have limited the White Sox to a .216/.219/.381 line this season. Cecil is on the waiver wire in most leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two-start week.

Kevin Correia – After losing his first start of the year, Correia has run off four straight wins. But that has had as much to do with the level of offensive support he has received as it has had to do with his pitching. In his last two starts, Correia has 10.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 BB and 11 H allowed and 2 W. With matchups this week against Ubaldo Jimenez and Roy Oswalt, do not expect the Padres offense to supply him with a ton of runs. Put Correia on the bench this week.

Gavin Floyd – It has been a rough start to 2010 for Floyd, who finally broke into the win column in his last outing. The key was that he did not allow a single walk in 7 IP. Even after that outing, Floyd has a 4.10 BB/9. In the three previous years, Floyd’s highest BB/9 was 3.05. And even with the elevated walk rate, Floyd’s xFIP is 2.42 runs lower than his ERA. With home starts against two sub-.500 teams in the Royals and Blue Jays, Floyd is set up for a good week if he can continue to throw strikes.

Jaime Garcia – As Dave Cameron alluded to yesterday, Garcia has a pretty nice GB rate. Maybe the Cardinals can start removing Skip Schumaker and perhaps even David Freese when he takes the mound. But aside from that, right now Garcia is really outperforming his peripherals. His xFIP is 2.65 runs higher than his ERA. Garcia has yet to allow a run at home this season, but this week he has two road starts, including one against the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Give Garcia a week off if you have a safe alternative.

Max Scherzer – In three of his first four starts this season, Scherzer threw a Quality Start. In his other outing he missed because he only went five innings. In his last start, he got lit up by the Twins. But Scherzer gets a rematch versus Minnesota this week. My opinion is that whenever a pitcher faces a team in back-to-back outings, he usually has the opposite result in the second start. In his other game this week, he faces the weak-hitting Indians, a nice tonic for a pitcher who has allowed a HR in his last four starts. Ignore Scherzer’s poor outing his last time out and keep him active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Five are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Jimenez, Kershaw, Oswalt, Dempster, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Baker, E. Santana, Peavy, Pavano, Harden, Matusz, Braden, Garcia, L. Hernandez, Leake, Kennedy, Sanders, Talbot, A. Sanchez, Blanton, O. Perez, Vargas, Maholm, Kawkami, Guthrie, Meche, Wellemeyer, Narveson, Paulino, Mulvey.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Three pitchers and how they fared.

Bailey – Recommended to sit. 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.677 WHIP
Morrow – Recommended to sit. W, 16 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.077 WHIP
Myers – Recommended to start. W, 8 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP
Pelfrey – Recommended to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP
Slowey – Recommended to start – W, 11 Ks, 3.375 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

Cardinals left hander Jaime Garcia almost opted for professional baseball in his native country of Mexico in 2005. But area scout Joe Almaraz convinced Garcia to sign with the St. Louis as a 22nd-round pick. Almaraz is quite the persuader as he also convinced the Orioles to draft Garcia in round 30 a year prior but they did not sign him. Almaraz left Baltimore after 2004 to scout with the Cardinals and he didn’t forget about Garcia.

Much of the Cardinals attention is currently focused on Matt Holliday these days after they signed Brad Penny to seemingly replace current free agent Joel Piniero. That leaves the Cards with four definite starters: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Brad Penny, and Kyle Lohse. St. Louis may try bringing back veteran John Smoltz or someone else to plug the fifth spot in the rotation but it could very well be filled with an in-house candidate.

Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters figure to be some of those in-house candidates but then there is also the case of the intriguing Jaime Garcia. Garcia was cruising through the Cardinals system before elbow soreness cut short his 2007 season. He made 18 inspiring starts between Double-A and Triple-A in 2008 and received a call up to the big leagues in July 2008. Garcia served as a reliever and had a tough ten game trial (7.07 FIP) before it was determined that he needed Tommy John surgery on his left arm.

Garcia returned in 2009 and logged 38 innings in the minor leagues after surgery. He performed well in the postseason for the Triple-A Memphis club. Garcia attacks hitters with a sinking fastball that ranges from the upper 80’s to the lower 90’s and he has a hammer 12-6 curveball. Baseball America reports that he added a third useful offering last season in their recent scouting report, “He used his rehab to add a pitch that’s a cross between a cutter and slider”.

Garcia’s sinking fastball has induced ground balls at a mighty pace throughout the minor leagues. Here are his ground ball rates, courtesy of Firstinning.com, throughout the Cardinals system.

2006: A ball (78 IP)- 65%. A+ (77 IP)- 62%
2007: AA (103 IP)- 56%
2008: AA (35 IP)- 62%. AAA (71 IP)- 55%. MLB (16 IP)- 63%
2009: Rookie (4 IP)- 85%. A+ (13 IP)- 71%. AAA (21 IP)- 55%

At every single level Garcia has induced ground balls at an amazing rate. His lowest ground ball rate is 55% in 92 combined innings during two Triple-A stints. Consider the top five ground ball percentages for 2009 MLB pitchers:

1. Joel Piniero– 60.5%
2. Derek Lowe– 56.3%
3. Jason Marquis– 55.6%
4. Chris Carpenter– 55%
5. Rick Porcello– 54.2%

Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright ranked #13 with a 50.7% rate. The Cardinals had three of their 2009 starters within the top 15 and two within the top 5. Piniero is likely signing elsewhere but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals won’t have another ground ball pitcher in their 2010 rotation.

There’s no reason not to believe that Garcia could induce ground balls at a very solid clip as a starter in the majors. His pitching repertoire would fit right into the Cardinals rotation. The Cardinals defense is very solid up the middle with slick fielding shortstop Brendan Ryan (10.6 UZR) and the rangy Colby Rasmus (8.9 UZR) is center field. Second base is the weak spot but the Julio Lugo/Skip Schumaker tandem may provide average defense with Lugo (-3.5 UZR in 168 innings) shifting over from shortstop. Schumaker (-7.7 UZR) will be spending his second season ever at the position after spending almost his entire professional career as an outfielder and there might be room for more defensive improvement.

It is also encouraging to know that with last seasons defense the Cardinals four primary starters and ground ball specialists had these BABIPS:

Adam Wainwright– .309
Chris Carpenter– .272
Joel Piniero– .293
Kyle Lohse– .300

The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t hurt these pitchers last season.

Garcia is entering 2010 with a clean bill of health and should get a long look during the Spring. He’s one of the Cardinals better pitching prospects and offers more upside over Mitchell Boggs and P.J. Walters. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be given the job. Since his professional career began in 2006 Garcia has never topped the 155 inning mark and he hit that career high in his first pro season in the lower minors. Below are Garcia’s inning totals:

2006- 155 IP
2007- 103 IP *season ends early due to elbow soreness*
2008- 122 IP *season ends with Tommy John Surgery*
2009- 38 IP *first season back from Tommy John Surgery*

It’s also worth noting that some fear Garcia’s pitching mechanics and Garcia really can’t be expected to fire 170+ big league innings next year from the Cardinals rotation. They will closely monitor Garcia and his innings total.

Keep a close eye on Garcia’s progress this Spring and the Cardinals plans. He might be ticketed to Triple-A Memphis to start 2010 but he could arrive to St. Louis’s rotation at some point during the year. He’d be a cheap pick up and worth the gamble if he’s ever presented with the opportunity to start at the big league level. If he makes the big league rotation on opening day I’d recommend picking him up but keep in mind that he likely won’t last in that role for the entire season due to his past inning totals and the fact that this will be his first full season back from injury.

Garcia fits the Cardinals overall pitching scheme and their defense is going to help him and his sinking fastball. Don’t be surprised if he’s grounding opponents with his sinker this summer in St. Louis.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Chris Carter: Oakland’s Chris Carter is an interesting prospect. A look at his numbers show massive potential with a double-A line of .334/.433/.567 in 485 at-bats. He had 40 doubles and 23 homers, as well as 106 runs driven in – the second time he’s topped 100 in as many years. Carter also maintains a solid walk rate (14.3 BB% in ’09) and he trimmed his strikeout rate by six percent over last year (30.8 to 24.3 K%). The 22-year-old first baseman also stole 13 bases in 18 attempts and recently earned a late-season promotion to triple-A. On the downside, Carter had a .404 BABIP in double-A, which is highly unsustainable. As well, scouts have questions about how well his swing will work in the Majors and he has a lot of trouble hitting breaking balls. Carter also does not have a defensive home. Despite a strong arm, he is average at best at first base due to poor hands. He’s also been tried at third base and right field, with little success. Carter is basically a designated hitter who should hit a bunch of homers and take his fair share of walks while hitting .260-.280 and piling up the Ks in the Majors.

David Lough: It’s been another depressing year in KCville. Top hitting prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have underwhelmed. However, the Royals have seen a few players step forward, such as Jeff Bianchi, Jordan Parraz, and Lough. An 11th-round selection out of tiny Mercyhurst College in 2007, Lough has really played well this year after a so-so first full season in pro ball in 2008. Beginning 2009 in high-A, the left-handed hitter posted a line of .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. Since moving up to double-A, Lough has continued to hit well with a line of .332/.371/.537 in 190 at-bats. The Ohio native has enough speed to steal 15-20 bases and gap power that could produce 10-15 homers. He does a nice job making contact and has the chance to be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Unfortunately, he does not walk nearly enough (5 BB% in 2009) but he keeps the strikeouts to a respectable level (14 K% in ’09). With a .119 average versus left-handers in double-A, Lough has a lot of work to do if he wants to avoid being platooned at the MLB level.

Chris Pettit: This Angels prospect has shown solid skills over the past few seasons but he just can’t stay healthy. Signed as a college senior out of Loyal Marymount University, Pettit has made the most of his solid-average abilities and he now projects to be a solid fourth outfielder and occasional starter. The right-handed hitter is a lefty killer with a line of .400/.509/.670 against them in 100 at-bats in 2009 at triple-A. Overall, Pettit has a line of .325/.383/.488 with 26 doubles and 16 steals in 326 at-bats. He does a nice job of keeping the strikeouts at bay with a rate of 15.4 K%, but his walk rates have decreased as he’s moved up the ladder (7.3 BB% in ’09). Defensively, Pettit can play all three outfield positions.

Jaime Garcia: The Cardinals organization has been absolutely snake-bitten when it comes to developing pitching prospects over the past 10 years. Southpaw Garcia was on the cusp of securing a big-league role in 2008 when he blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. Control was never a huge strength of Garcia’s, but it’s looked pretty good in seven post-surgery appearances – especially considering that command and control usually suffer afterward. Still just 23, the Mexico native has plenty of time to re-firm-up his plus breaking ball. He could find himself back in the Majors by mid-2010 with the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter for St. Louis.

Jeremy Hellickson: This right-hander has officially passed both Jacob McGee and Wade Davis as the top pitching prospect in the Rays system. It took a little while for scouts to warm up to Hellickson because he’s not as flashy as the other two pitching prospects but he is a better all-around pitcher and far more consistent. The 22-year-old hurler began the year in double-A and allowed 41 hits in 56.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.22 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.85 K/9. Since a promotion to triple-A, he’s allowed 24 hits in 35.1 innings. He also has a 3.06 BB/9 walk rate and a 9.93 K/9 strikeout rate. Hellickson has a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and changeup. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. Pitching is still a strength in the organization with Matthew Moore, Nick Barnese, and Kyle Lobstein also blazing through the system.

Trystan Magnuson: Magnuson was a bit of a surprise supplemental first round draft pick in the 2007 draft, as a fifth-year senior at the University of Louisville. With multiple picks in the first few rounds, though, the Jays organization needed to save some money and it felt Magnuson would move quickly through the system. Shifted to the starting rotation in 2008 at low-A, the right-hander struggled mightily. Moved back to the ‘pen in 2009, Magnuson pitched pretty well in high-A and received a late-season promotion to double-A, which is where he should begin the 2010 season. At the rate that the Jays organization goes through pitchers, he should get a MLB shot next year if he continues to improve. Magnuson, 24, has a fastball that can touch 94 mph out of the bullpen, as well as a good (but inconsistent) slider. He also gets his fair share of worm-burning outs, and Toronto loves its ground-ball pitchers.

Robbie Weinhardt: Toronto loves ground-ball pitchers and Detroit loves its flame-throwing relievers. The organization grabbed five college relievers in the first 10 rounds of the 2008 draft with the hopes that they would provide quick relief in a system that significantly lacked pitching depth. Ryan Perry (1st round) has established himself in the Majors, while Brett Jacobson (fourth round) was used to acquire Aubrey Huff in a recent trade with Baltimore. Weinhardt, the fifth reliever taken by the Tigers (10th round), has been perhaps the second most impressive reliever taken by the Tigers in the ’08 draft. Beginning 2009 in high-A, he allowed 24 hits in 31.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. Moved up to double-A, the right-hander has allowed 20 hits in 25 innings of work, while allowing a walk rate of 3.96 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.36 K/9. Weinhardt has a low-90s fastball that can touch 94 mph, as well as a changeup and slider. He looks like a future set-up man.