There is still a smorgasbord of outfield and middle-infield waiver wire options. Let’s sort using 20% ownership in Yahoo leagues as our qualifier.
Using a combination of contact percentage and isolated slugging, here is the 2015 zCt+zISO leader board:
This is a subject I tackled last year, but the basic idea for this article is that people playing in leagues that use non-traditional roto categories may not be equipped with proper draft materials. Almost any set of rankings you can find online are compiled with the standard 5×5 roto categories in mind. Some sites may have rankings published specifically for leagues that replace batting average with OBP, but the vast majority assume standard categories. If you’re using a set of rankings from a site or magazine, you’re doing yourself a disservice unless those rankings were designed for OBP leagues.
I’ve compiled my own projections for 242 hitters to generate my own rankings, and I’ve generated rankings specifically for standard 5×5 leagues and leagues that have replaced batting average with OBP. I want to highlight the players who gain the most in OBP leagues and the players who are hurt the most when OBP replaces average. I base my rankings off a number Zach Sanders calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement (FVARz). Essentially I assign each player a value for each category and add them all up while adjusting for positional scarcity.
Below I’ve included two lists; one shows the players whose FVARz increases the most when OBP replaces average, and the other shows the players whose FVARz decreases the most. I’ve also included their ranking among hitters and auction values for both batting average and OBP leagues. Over on a site of which I’m the managing editor, TheFantasyFix.com, I’ve posted how the rankings and auction values change for all 242 hitters I have projections for when the switch is made to OBP. You can find that here. All values are based on 10-team leagues with 25-man rosters, 13 starting hitter slots and three bench slots. If you have questions about the methodology, the charts or anything else, hit me up in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s fairly likely this isn’t your first spin with fantasy baseball, so you are no doubt familiar with the fact that things go wrong. Despite all your preparation, your undivided attention to the prognosticators and the projection sheets, sometimes the bell rings and one or two of your top picks turn into moldy wet blankets. One of your sleeper picks never wakes. A can’t-miss rookie never arrives.
It happens. It’s part of the game.
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For a team that’s in a highly transitional period like the Mets, their infield situation is surprisingly set. Unlike their complete mess of an outfield, starters at all five infield positions are pretty easy to nail down.
But just because we know who is starting on Opening Day hardly means that it will be the same player throughout the season, and nowhere is that more apparent than at catcher. John Buck is clearly nothing more than a placeholder for top prospect Travis D’Arnaud, and if Buck is still starting for this team past July then something has gone horrible, miserably wrong. Since it’s the Mets, that’s always possible, and Buck should get the majority of the playing time for at least the first few weeks of the season. You know what he is by now, and that’s a one-category player who will provide his fair share of power while killing you absolutely everywhere else. Behind him, Anthony Recker is just a Quad-A type who merits no fantasy consideration whatsoever. Read the rest of this entry »
For all the years that I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, I’ve never really understood the idea of punting saves. Not that I don’t understand the concept, but that I don’t understand the rationale behind thinking that it’s a good strategy. You load up on starters with the hope of locking up wins and strikeouts while doing your best to stay competitive in WHIP and ERA. Perfectly viable strategy, right? But what about the fact that Wins is, more or less, an arbitrary category and while your guy goes seven strong and exits with the lead, some clown of a set-up man comes in, walks the leadoff guy and then serves up a two-run shot to tie the game. A great game for your starter, for sure, but you make no advancement in a category you’ve supposedly built your team to excel in. Read the rest of this entry »
By true definition, at least by Aesop’s fables, the turtle represents the old adage, “slow and steady wins the race.” By our definition, at least how Eno laid it out, the fantasy turtle is the best buy-low/waiver pick-up that dominated in the second half of the season. While some of our awards were fairly unanimous, this one wasn’t, as nine players received votes. Again, the title of the piece tells you that Kris Medlen won, but let’s look a little further into it. Read the rest of this entry »
Coming into mid-September, we’re not only seeing late season call-ups but we’re also experiencing players getting shut down for the year not to mention some veterans getting extra rest. This makes it even more difficult to manage your squad in what is hopefully your final charge to the title. The fact is, you probably need an additional position player or two in daily transaction leagues just to help fill out your roster – and you’re going to have to get creative.
Similar to Dan Wade’s post yesterday about microtrends, what I’m looking for is two things in typical Roto league formats and points league formats: I want to maximize my games played and I want to utilize any advantage I can in the match-ups.
Let’s face it, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak these days. Obviously if you’re in a real shallow league of eight to ten teams, there are always guys worthy of picking up even for just a week or so. But the deeper your league gets the worse it looks out there and as writers trying to suggest a worthwhile pick-up, it can often be difficult. So now that I threw that caveat out there, here are two guys that probably aren’t bad enough that they could contribute as a possible fill-in for you while your guy maybe nurses a sore hamstring or is mired in some sort of multi-week slump. Read the rest of this entry »
So you take your Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, you select Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista and breathe a sigh of relief that you have first base and third base covered, now let’s see about building something of a respectable pitching staff. And then around the 15th round it occurs to you that you have that pesky corner infield situation to tend to (not to mention middle infield, and for those of you in such leagues – one or more utility slots — but that’s for another post).
I have fallen into a false sense of security before during drafts where I select a player and feel a little like Ed Norton in Fight Club regarding his couch – that is, “I’ve got that sofa issue handled.” We know there’s more work to be done on the offense side of the dish, yet we might fail to plan as diligently as we did for the respective positions.
This post is a little strategy that might be quite “101” to some, but it was born out of comments about the need to plan for the flex positions in our leagues. The context is standard 5×5, 12 team, non-keeper roto leagues.
All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some first basemen.
Billy Butler
Butler continued to increase his walk rate while simultaneously cutting back on the K’s. The batting average is always there, but owners are still waiting for the power to come along. He’s only 24, so a power surge is still possible, but it’s probably going to take a slight adjustment in his swing, and that may not be worth the risk. Somewhere down the road, he has a 30 HR season or two in him, but how long are you willing to wait?
Crude 2011 Projection: .315/.395, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as he keeps churning out a high average, I’m willing to wait for more power.
Kendry Morales
Morales had a chance to duplicate his 2009 success until he snapped his leg like a twig. He’ll still be in his peak years when he returns, so the leg is likely the only thing to hold his value back.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.345, 28 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you got him in the fourth, he’s still worth it.
Matt LaPorta
It feels like I’ve been here before. You? For someone who’s supposed to be a great power hitter, LaPorta has a sub-.400 slugging percentage. The only good thing to come out of this year is his improved BB%, and a ton of MLB experience. He’s still only 25, so maybe he’s a late bloomer?
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.320, 16 HR
Verdict: Cut. Not looking like a stud, may never even be average.
Justin Smoak
He disappointed early this season, but Smoak has been on fire since he was recalled. He’s kept the strikeouts to a reasonable level, is working walks and is still hitting for power. Sure, it’s a small sample, but I like what I’m seeing right now.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. Too much potential to let him go.
Ike Davis
I’m not going to lie and say I saw this coming. Davis has been very good this year, and has gotten overlooked quite a bit. He has the Mets job going forward, and will be a big part in their rebuilding plan.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.365, 23 HR
Verdict: Keep. He may never be a superstar, but he’ll put up good numbers.
If you have a first basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.