Archive for Giants

If something about Madison Bumgarner’s first eight starts of 2018 have seemed odd to you, it’s because they have been. No matter the fielding independent pitching statistic to which you subscribe — FIP, xFIP, SIERA (although, frankly, it should be SIERA) — Bumgarner’s 2018 has not inspired confidence. Despite a dazzling (and quintessentially Bumgarnerian) 2.90 ERA, his baserunner suppression skills (i.e. strikeouts and walks) have lagged this year, and the various FIPs all portend severe bumps in the road. Granted, Bumgarner has outperformed his FIPs the last three years and throughout his career. I’m here to argue not that we should dismiss our concerns because of this but, instead, that such overperformance has insulated us from what should be potentially serious concerns about MadBum’s long-term health and success.

The problems with Bumgarner’s 2018 season — or at least the peripherals that underpin his 2018 season — thus far stem back not to his broken finger but, rather, something both farther back and much more dire. You may or may not recall Bumgarner fell off a dirt bike last year and injured his throwing shoulder. He returned from that injury almost exactly a year ago and promptly underwhelmed us. Sure, he posted a 3.43 ERA through September and has a 3.23 ERA in the calendar year since his return. It’s not vintage Bumgarner, but it’s not awful. But the peripherals, oh, the peripherals: his strikeout rate (K%) has caved dramatically, falling more than 6 percentage points (27.1% from April 2015 through April 2017; 20.9% from July 2017 onward).

It’s his fastball. Bumgarner’s fastball, once elite (relative to other four-seamers), is broken, and it has been broken for a year.

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It seemed like Kenley Jansen would close out his 22nd straight save with a two strike count against Shohei Ohtani in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. However, Ohtani battled back drawing a walk, then stole second base during which an errant throw allowed him to move to third. A single by David Fletcher tied the game, then a single to right field by Ian Kinsler eventually scored Fletcher after a bobble and an overthrow to home let the winning run score. On the surface, it’s tough loss. Jansen owned not backing up home on the play which resulted in the winning run scoring, saying and I quote, “That’s my fault.” The blown save is Jansen’s first since April 17th when he fell to two-for-four in saves with an inflated 8.10 ERA. Since then, Jansen whittled his ERA down with a 1.06 ERA over 34 outings converting 21 straight saves, until last night.

However, when targeting a closer at Jansen’s average draft position, it’s to own an elite closer with strong ratios. Jansen’s accrued 23 saves so far this year but with a 2.40 ERA, 3.01 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. Very good, but not in the upper echelon of closers this season. Perhaps it’s his losing a tick off of his velocities on his fastball and cutter or it’s the cumulative effect of pitching in the postseason each of the last five years including into the World Series last season. He’s only blown three saves but the strikeout percentage drop of over 16 percent, Jansen’s swinging strike percentage decrease of almost six percent along with his contact allowed up over nine percent. Getting the All-Star break off could help Jansen but due to his peripheral statistics lagging compared to past performance, he will be fine going forward, just not his to his usual elite status from seasons prior. Read the rest of this entry »

On a day where there were far more developments regarding setup relievers, Sergio Romo further consolidated his status as the Rays’ primary closer. He did allow the second of Evan Gattis‘ two home runs in Sunday’s 3-2 win over the Astros, but a walk to Tyler White was the only other blemish on Romo’s ninth inning. He recorded his eighth save of the season and has been the recipient of seven of the Rays’ last eight saves.

The lone exception came on Friday, when Jose Alvarado retired Marwin Gonzalez for a one-out save. Even then, it was Romo who started off the ninth inning with a one-run lead. Alvardo was summoned only when Romo yielded a two-out Gattis single, and Kevin Cash opted to turn Gonzalez around to bat right-handed. Entering Friday’s game, Gonzalez’s .285 wOBA against lefties was 25 points lower than his mark against righties. While Alvarado could take an occasional save away from Romo when matchups dictate, it looks safe to assume that the former Giant and Dodger will be receiving the vast majority of save chances.
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Predictably, Sam Dyson struggled as the interim closer with Hunter Strickland sidelined due to a self inflicted injury. With intriguing arms like Reyes Moronta, Tony Watson and Will Smith, the Giants had options for the ninth inning with better ratios and performance over the last month. Bruce Bochy opted for Will Smith in the ninth inning in Arizona for a chance to record his first save since April 13th, 2014. Smith responded with a clean inning and striking out two. Returning from a myriad of injuries, Smith’s been terrific this season and especially in June. His 0.75 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 21 strikeouts to four walks punctuate how good Smith’s been over his last 12 innings.

Delving a bit deeper, Smith’s 24 swinging strike percentage along with a 47.8 O-swing percentage (chase rate) combined with his 56.7 percent contact allowed fuel his surge in June. On the season, Smith’s limited left-handed hitters to a .180/.200/.231 slash line in 10.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and right-handed hitters to a .071/.191/.103 average against with 15 strikeouts. If Smith remains the preferred option for Bochy going forward, both Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta will remain on the periphery of saves if Smith needs a break. Watson possesses closer experience and currently in the midst of a 13.1 scoreless inning streak spanning 14 outings. Moronta notched his fourth hold last night and has 11 strikeouts, three wins and a save with a 3.71 ERA his last 12 games. Read the rest of this entry »

It looks as if we have a full-blown committee situation in San Francisco.

That’s because Sam Dyson, who was annointed as the primary closer 10 days ago after Hunter Strickland broke his hand punching a door, has allowed six runs (five earned) in seven innings since said annointment. On Thursday, Dyson blew a save and took the loss against the Rockies, having given the visitors the lead by allowing DJ LeMahieu’s two-run homer.
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Entering the Giants’ Tuesday night game against the Rockies, it had been one week since Sam Dyson had recorded his one-and-only save since Hunter Strickland was placed on the DL. Given that he had a couple of shaky outings in the interim and that Bruce Bochy called on Will Smith to pitch the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game with the Padres on Sunday, one had to wonder if Dyson was still the Giants’ primary closer.

Whatever worries Dyson — or his fantasy owners — may have had were somewhat assuaged in Tuesday’s 3-2 win. Dyson pitched a scoreless ninth inning for his third save of the season, though there were some nail-biting moments. He gave up a leadoff double to Tom Murphy and issued a one-out walk to pinch hitter Chris Iannetta. Dyson appeared to get out of the inning on a DJ LeMahieu double play ball, but the Rockies challenged the call, which was ultimately upheld.
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Although Bruce Bochy listed Sam Dyson and Tony Watson as his “primary options” to close with Hunter Strickland headed to the disabled list, could Mark Melancon work his way into at least a time share? While it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, keep in mind Dyson worked the three previous games prior to last night so he received a much needed day off. Melancon stepped in to record his first save, one year and one day since his last one before missing the majority of last season. For one night, San Francisco’s blueprint went exactly as planned with Madison Bumgarner firing eight shutout innings and Melancon locking down the save. Read the rest of this entry »

Life is coming at the Giants’ bullpen fast. On Monday, Hunter Strickland blew a save against the Marlins and punched out a door. On Tuesday, Strickland had surgery and Sam Dyson was named the new closer. That night, Dyson notched a save, and then on Wednesday afternoon, he came perilously close to blowing a save.

The Giants gave Dyson a three-run cushion in their series finale with Miami, but the Marlins shaved a run off the lead when Starlin Castro brought Miguel Rojas home with a one-out sacrifice fly. Dyson was one strike away from recording his second save in two days, but then Brian Anderson smacked an 0-2 two-seamer into right field for an RBI single. After J.T. Realmuto singled on Dyson’s very next pitch, Bruce Bochy called for Reyes Moronta to get out of the jam. In striking out J.B. Shuck on four pitches, Moronta got credit for his first career save.
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Among yesterday’s developments, I was pretty certain nothing was going to top the Cubs losing their closer due to an injury sustained while taking his pants off. I was wrong.

After blowing a save against the Marlins on Monday night, Hunter Strickland then lost a fight with a door. The Giants’ closer punched said door and broke his right hand. He underwent surgery on his right pinky finger on Tuesday and is expected to be out for six-to-eight weeks. Bruce Bochy wasted little time in anointing Sam Dyson as his new primary closer, and promptly used him to nail down a save against the Marlins on Tuesday night. With Tony Watson apparently off after pitching on consecutive days, Will Smith pitched the eighth inning and stayed in to begin the ninth with lefties J.B. Shuck and Derek Dietrich due up, but after walking pinch hitter Yadiel Rivera and striking out Dietrich, he gave way to Dyson. The sinkerballer, who happens to have a 64.8 percent ground ball rate, got Brian Anderson to hit into a game-ending double play.
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For the second time in less than 24 hours, the Marlins helped themselves with a sacrifice fly off Hunter Strickland. On Wednesday night, it was Brian Anderson’s deep fly to center field that brought in Miguel Rojas to score the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Then on Thursday, Strickland was brought in with a one-run lead in the ninth inning. Three batters into the frame, he engaged in a nine-pitch battle with Lewis Brinson that concluded with a flyball to the warning track. That drive scored Starlin Castro and tied the game up. In fairness to Strickland, Castro had reached on a Joe Panik error, and the night before, he had inherited two runners from Reyes Moronta.

With Mark Melancon back, it may seem like Strickland has less margin for error, but the Giants’ former closer is far from the most immediate threat to the incumbent’s job security. Tony Watson has been spectacular lately, not allowing a run over his last 8.1 innings while striking out 13 batters and yielding only a single and a walk. Sam Dyson stumbled a bit in the Marlins series, allowing three runs (two earned) in 1.1 innings, but prior to that, he had allowed one run over a 13.1-inning span with 17 strikeouts and four walks.
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