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Bullpen Report: July 14, 2019

With less than three weeks to the trade deadline for teams to formulate decisions, bullpens will play a pivotal role in deciding whether to buy, sell or hold. Philadelphia lost on a two run home run allowed by Hector Neris to Juan Soto in the ninth inning yesterday. On the surface, it seems like a blip. However, this loss puts the Phillies on the outside looking due to the Brewers comeback win over the Giants. Injuries have ravaged the depth in Philadelphia’s bullpen but Neris took over as closer early on and did not look back. But, he’s blown two of his last three save chances and served up a home run in consecutive outings spanning the All-Star break.

Neris has shown the ability to bounce back from adversity all season long, so he should remain in his present role. Neris also issue a walk with the bases loaded in the eighth upon replacing Adam Morgan who allowed singles to Soto and Ryan Zimmerman preceding Victor Robles reaching on an error prior to the fateful ninth inning meltdown. Keep tabs on Tommy Hunter who turned in a clean seventh inning for his first hold and has not yielded a run in five outings since his return from the injured list. Philadelphia also awaits the return of David Robertson by the end of the month. (Update, post publish the Phillies placed Tommy Hunter on the injured reserve and promoted Edubray Ramos)

For the Nationals, Sean Doolittle closed the door on his 20th save working around a single by Maikel Franco. Since Washington prefers not to overwork Doolittle, he should receive Sunday off which opens the door for the Fernando Rodney experience in the ninth inning if a save presents itself. Wander Suero recorded his second win retiring the only two hitters he faced in the bottom of the eighth before the Nationals rally in the top of the ninth.

With teams circling the San Francisco bullpen as the trade deadline looms, Sam Dyson struggled during his outing on Saturday. Dyson coughed up three straight doubles to Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar and Keston Hiura resulting in two runs then a single to Eric Thames before exiting. All told, Dyson gets tagged with four hits and three earned runs to his ledger without recording an out. This results in his first blown save all year and the first runs he’s given up since June 20th in an ugly appearance. Derek Holland walked Yasmani Grandal then induced a sacrifice fly by Orlando Arcia before retiring Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to end the inning.

Just when it seemed safe for the Brewers, Jeremy Jeffress entered for the save chance with Josh Hader unavailable. Jeffress walked lead-off batter Brandon Crawford then allowed a one out singles to Austin Slater and Stephen Vogt. Two runs scored on Vogt’s single but only one earned due to an error by Lorenzo Cain with the ball going under his glove letting the second run score. Freddy Peralta was in line for the win walking two and striking out three in the top of the eighth, but Jeffress garners the win after the Brewers rallied in the bottom of the frame. Reyes Moronta took over in the ninth of a tied game but an error by Brandon Crawford allowed Ryan Braun to reach base. Moronta rebounded striking out Moustakas and Aguilar before issuing a walk to Hiura. Ben Gamel then doubled driving in the winning run and handing Moronta his fifth loss. Who says high leverage does not matter?

Another game deciding by the bullpens occurred in Texas. Roberto Osuna held on for his 20th save in the 11th inning. Osuna did serve up a lead-off double to Nomar Mazara who later scored on a Delino DeShields Jr. single during the inning. It’s been a rocky start to the second half for Osuna giving up runs in consecutive games along with two hits and a walk in each appearance. Of more concern, the four walks in his last three games after yielding only five in his previous 36 innings of work. Ryan Pressly struck out two in the eighth inning and Josh James gets his fourth win working two scoreless innings walking one while striking out two. Brett Martin of Texas takes the loss after giving up two runs in the top of the 11th on a Jose Altuve double and Myles Straw single.

Last, but not least, the Braves outlasted the Padres in San Diego. Kirby Yates suffered his second blown save entering the eighth inning after a lead-off walk issued by Gerardo Reyes forced him from the game. Yates allowed a single to Nick Markakis then induced a fielder’s choice ground out by Ozzie Albies but Josh Donaldson advanced to third with one out. A sacrifice fly by Austin Riley scored Donaldson tying the game handing Yates the blown save letting an inherited runner score. Yates finished two innings yielding two hits and striking out four. Luis Perdomo imploded in the top of the 10th giving up two hits, three earned runs and two walks for his second loss.

Sean Newcomb benefits for his third win after he walked two and struck out two in the bottom of the ninth for Atlanta. Luke Jackson once again held on for his 16th save but it was a wild ride. Jackson served up a solo home run to Manny Machado starting the 10th inning then faced a bases loaded situation with two outs but struck out Perdomo ending the game. All told, Jackson’s line did not look pretty with two hits, an earned run and two walks with a strikeout, but a save’s a save, right? Anthony Swarzak worked the eighth inning walking one and striking out one in his first outing off of the injured list. Swarzak’s been a stabilizing force for the Braves recording a 0.49 ERA in 18.1 innings during 18 appearances with the team since his acquisition.

Before delving into the Quick Hits, something to track in Toronto. Daniel Hudson notched his second save on Saturday afternoon with Ken Giles not available. Giles last worked on July fourth against Boston. This tweet updated to say the massage happened during the All-Star break, but be aware of Giles health going forward:

It could be nothing or it could be something, time will tell. Do know, it was Derek Law throwing with Hudson providing traffic in the ninth before recording the last out on a strikeout of Luke Voit. Also note David Phelps fired 1.1 clean innings of setup relief for his first hold with three strikeouts. This Blue Jays bullpen could be gutted at the deadline so it’s not crazy to think Phelps, with health, could get saves at some point. Stranger things have happened.

Quick Hits: Mychal Givens notched his seventh save firing two clean inning with two strikeouts in Game 1 versus the Rays. It’s his first save since June 11th. Richard Bleier gets his first win walking one in a scoreless seventh inning…Colin Poche suffers his second blown save and loss coughing up a two run home run to Stevie Wilkerson. Yes, Poche has blown the save in two of his last three outings, but heed his 27:1 K:BB to start his career. Emilio Pagan pitched a clean eighth with two strikeouts and Diego Castillo made his first appearance off the injured list in Game 2 recording two outs…Getting in work, Alex Colome allowed a hit, an earned run and a walk with a strikeout. Aaron Bummer tossed a clean eighth inning…Blake Treinen yielded two hits, two earned runs and a walk with no strikeouts. He’s given up runs in two of his three appearances since returning from the injured list…Ian Kennedy locked down his 13th save with a clean ninth striking out one. Kennedy’s converted 11 of his last 12 save chances with a 1.89 ERA and 19:4 K:BB since May 30th…Taylor Rogers pitched a clean ninth with a strikeout, but with a four run lead. Blake Parker logged 1.1 clean innings with two strikeouts for his eighth hold…Save number 20 for Edwin Diaz working around a hit with a strikeout. He’s converted four saves in a row. Seth Lugo gets his 13th hold working a clean eighth with two strikeouts….Strong outing for Carlos Martinez striking out three of the four batters he faced for his fourth save. Giovanny Gallegos recorded his seventh hold striking out two in 1.2 innings…A potential injury to Steven Wright could open the door for a Darwinson Hernandez promotion. Since transitioning to the bullpen at Triple-A, Hernandez has retired all 10 hitters he’s faced as a reliever…Two clean innings with two strikeouts for Julio Urias in Boston but he did not pitch the ninth so no save chance, sigh…Jared Hughes gets the one out win pitching in Colorado prior to a five run rally by the Reds. Michael Lorenzen did record his sixth hold with a clean inning.

Not Very Stable
Hot Seat
Committee
Bullpen Report — 7/14/2019
Team Closer First Up Second Up Minors/DL
ARI Greg Holland Yoan Lopez Andrew Chafin
ATL Luke Jackson Anthony Swarzak Jacob Webb
BAL Mychal Givens Miguel Castro Richard Bleier Nathan Karns
BOS Brandon Workman Matt Barnes Heath Hembree Nathan Eovaldi
CHC Craig Kimbrel Pedro Strop Steve Cishek
CWS Alex Colome Aaron Bummer Evan Marshall
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen David Hernandez Amir Garrett
CLE Brad Hand Nick Wittgren Adam Cimber
COL Wade Davis Scott Oberg Jairo Diaz
DET Shane Greene Joe Jimenez Victor Alcantara
HOU Roberto Osuna Ryan Pressly Will Harris
KC Ian Kennedy Kevin McCarthy Jake Diekman
LAA Hansel Robles Ty Buttrey Cam Bedrosian
LAD Kenley Jansen Pedro Baez Yimi Garcia
MIA Sergio Romo Nick Anderson Jose Quijada Drew Steckenrider
MIL Josh Hader Jeremy Jeffress Junior Guerra
MIN Taylor Rogers Trevor May Blake Parker Trevor Hildenberger
NYM Edwin Diaz Seth Lugo Robert Gsellman
NYY Aroldis Chapman Zack Britton Adam Ottavino Dellin Betances
OAK Liam Hendriks Blake Treinen Joakim Soria
PHI Hector Neris Tommy Hunter Adam Morgan David Robertson
PIT Felipe Vazquez Kyle Crick Francisco Liriano Keone Kela
STL Carlos Martinez John Gant Andrew Miller Jordan Hicks
SD Kirby Yates Craig Stammen Luis Perdomo
SF Will Smith Tony Watson Sam Dyson
SEA Roenis Elias Anthony Bass Cory Gearrin Hunter Strickland
TB Emilio Pagan Colin Poche Diego Castillo Chaz Roe
TEX Shawn Kelley Chris Martin Jose LeClerc
TOR Ken Giles Daniel Hudson David Phelps
WSH Sean Doolittle Fernando Rodney Wander Suero Kyle Barraclough

Bullpen Report: July 13, 2019

Unfortunately, the second half picked up where the tumultuous first half ended in terms of performances in high leverage. Both Josh Hader and Will Smith suffered blown saves in outings against their respective teams last night. Hader entered in the eighth inning serving up a lead-off home run to Tyler Austin. He settled in striking out Brandon Belt, getting Buster Posey to ground out and then a foul tip strikeout of Evan Longoria. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: Trade Primer

Two factors could make this a very intriguing trade deadline. First, with seven teams within seven games of each other in the Wild Card race in the American League along with 11 teams in the National League, the sellers face tough decisions. Second, due to a rule change, the July 31st trade date will be a hard deadline with no waiver transactions in August. So, the onset of the second half will not only dictate which players may be traded, it could change how teams finish within their divisions. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: June 18, 2019

Owning Raisel Iglesias comes with its ups and downs. His multiple inning usage can cap save totals year to year, but he’s saved 71 since the start of 2017. Last night, Iglesias once again struggled with his command leading to his removal from the game in the ninth inning without recording a save. Instead, Iglesias gets his second hold of the season to the dismay of his owners. In the eighth inning, Iglesias entered with a runner on base and one out. He induced a pop out to shortstop by Robinson Chirinos but walked Tyler White in the next at-bat. Iglesias ended the inning on a Tony Kemp ground out and returned for the ninth inning. But, he walked lead-off hitter Myles Straw then retired Alex Bregman on a pop out to first base. Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: June 8, 2019

It’s a tenuous time of year for fantasy owners. Amidst all the buy low and sell high noise, one needs to take stock of trends along with the standings. For instance, representing one of the top two picks at the position, Blake Treinen seems a bit off compared to last year. He recorded his 13th save last night, but needed to work around a hit and two walks. Through four innings this month, Treinen’s walked five batters with only two strikeouts. Overall, his 3.16 ERA accompanies a 4.79 xFIP with a drop in ground ball percentage by over 12 percentage points while his walk rate continues to rise sitting at 12.7 percent, his highest rate over his career. It could be mechanics or a hangover from usage last year, but it needs to be monitored. Read the rest of this entry »


NL Lineup Analysis (5/10/19)

A path for an Austin Riley promotion, a new role for Jose Peraza and positive developments for Mac Williamson and Ian Kinsler are just some of the lineup developments in the National League in recent days. Here’s the breakdown for each team.

Arizona

Wilmer Flores has been hitting well of late (.410/.452/.641 over his last 12 games), so he has been getting in the lineup more often. He has started six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games and each of the last four, including the last three against right-handed starters. A different player has sat each time to make room for Flores, so as long as he keeps hitting, there is enough flexibility to keep him in the lineup on a close-to-everyday basis.

Torey Lovullo has yet to settle on a spot in the batting order for Ketel Marte against righties. He has been consistently slotted in at the second spot against lefties, but in his last four starts against right-handed pitchers, Marte has hit fifth, leadoff, second and sixth.

Atlanta

As Ender Inciarte has yet to get untracked at the plate, he is starting to lose some playing time. He has gone to the bench for three of the last five games against left-handed starters and for four of the last 12 games overall. For each of those games, Ronald Acuna Jr. has moved to center field with one of Johan Camargo, Matt Joyce or Charlie Culberson taking over in left field. On a related note, Riley started in left field for Triple-A Gwinnett on Wednesday, so with Acuna getting more acclimated in center field, we should wonder if the prospect may eventually supplant Inciarte in the Braves’ lineup.

Chicago

Daniel Descalso has played sparingly over the last six days due to a sore ankle, and Ben Zobrist was placed on the restricted list on Wednesday, so that has meant more playing time for Albert Almora Jr. He has started four of the last six games, including two against right-handed starters. David Bote had already been playing more regularly, but he has now started seven straight games. Addison Russell, who replaced Zobrist on the Cubs’ roster, has now started two of the last three games at second base.

With Descalso and Zobrist out, Jason Heyward led off the last two games against right-handed starters.

Cincinnati

Have we seen the last of Joey Votto, Leadoff Hitter? Nick Senzel has led off for the Reds in the last two games, with Votto batting second against the Athletics on Wednesday and out of the lineup entirely for Thursday’s finale. The outfield situation has stabilized, with Yasiel Puig in right field, Senzel in center field, and an apparent platoon of Jesse Winker and Peraza in left field. The plan at second base is less clear, though a platoon of Derek Dietrich and Kyle Farmer could emerge. Peraza and Josh VanMeter could be in that mix as well.

Colorado

Raimel Tapia has seized something close to an everyday role, starting seven of the Rockies’ last eight games. He has also settled in at the lower part of the batting order, hitting no higher than sixth in 12 of his last 13 starts. Meanwhile, David Dahl and Ian Desmond have had a strict platoon in center field over the last six games, with each player getting three starts on the basis of handedness.

Los Angeles

With A.J. Pollock out, the Dodgers have been going with a platoon of Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez in center field to go along with the Joc Pederson/Chris Taylor platoon in left field. Max Muncy has been playing second base when Hernandez has been in the lineup in center field, which has turned Muncy into an everyday player. In turn, David Freese has been covering first base when Muncy has been playing the keystone.

Miami

Curtis Granderson and Peter O’Brien are sharing time in left field, though handedness does not seem to be a factor in determining which one gets the start. The split between Rosell Herrera and Isaac Galloway in center field looks more like a standard platoon, with Herrera getting the last two starts against righties and Galloway getting the last two starts versus lefties.

Jon Berti is now the regular third baseman, as he has started six of the last eight games and 11 of the last 15. Neil Walker and Martin Prado are now ensconced in a first base platoon, with Walker starting the last four games with an opposing right-handed starter and Prado getting the nod against the last two lefties.

Milwaukee

As expected, the return of Christian Yelich has meant less playing time for both Eric Thames and Ben Gamel. Both players have started in only two of the five games since Yelich missed time with back problems. Craig Counsell has taken advantage of Mike Moustakas‘ surging production, batting him either third or fourth in his last 13 starts against right-handed starters.

New York

Brandon Nimmo may be losing his grip on an everyday role, as he has been left out of the Mets’ starting lineup in two of the last five games. Once was against a lefty starter (Gio Gonzalez), but the other time was against righty Chris Paddack. Todd Frazier and J.D. Davis have been platooning at third base, and with Jed Lowrie (knee) possibly returning next week, Frazier could see a reduction in his playing time. Mickey Callaway did not specify a plan for getting Lowrie into the lineup, only saying that some regulars may not play as much. With Frazier batting .143, he would seem to be the most likely player to be impacted.

The suddenly-hot Amed Rosario (15 for his last 45 with five extra-base hits) has batted second in three of the last four games. Peter Alonso has hit in the cleanup spot in each of those three games.

Philadelphia

All of the regulars are back, so we are back to seeing the same Phillies lineup, day in and day out.

Pittsburgh

The easing-in process for Gregory Polanco appears to be over, as he has now started five games in a row. Also, Bryan Reynolds‘ run of semi-regular playing time looks like it’s over, as Melky Cabrera has three of the last four starts in left field.

San Diego

For the Padres’ eight games played in May, Kinsler has hit leadoff for six of them. He has rewarded Andy Green for the decision by going 9 for 30 with two home runs and two doubles this month. Now Manuel Margot looks like the odd man out of the Padres’ outfield, having started only two of the last six games.

San Francisco

After getting four straight starts in left field, Mike Gerber was abruptly pushed aside with Williamson’s promotion from Triple-A Sacramento on Tuesday. Williamson started on both Tuesday and Thursday at Colorado, and the team will be looking to him to play left field on a regular basis. The Giants also placed Buster Posey on the 7-day concussion IL on Thursday, so Aramis Garcia and Stephen Vogt will split the catching duties in his absence. It may be worth noting that when Vogt started on Monday against the Reds, he batted third.

The rest of the lineup is stable, though with Yangervis Solarte designated for assignment on Tuesday, Donovan Solano has likely inherited his portion of the second base platoon with Joe Panik.

St. Louis

Harrison Bader has been relegated to a bench role once again. Dexter Fowler has now made five of the last six starts in center field.

Washington

Juan Soto (back) is expected to return on Saturday, so the recent run of starts by Michael A. Taylor is about to end. With the demotion of Carter Kieboom, Wilmer Difo is back to getting regular play at shortstop, though Trea Turner (finger) could be back as soon as two weeks from now.

With both Matt Adams (shoulder) and Ryan Zimmerman (plantar fasciitis) out, Howie Kendrick figures to play close to regularly at first base. He has started three of the last five games there. Kendrick has also been hitting regularly in the heart of the order, batting third or fourth in each of his last 13 starts.


Bullpen Report: May 4, 2019

May the fourth be with you, and the force be strong in the unyielding chase for saves. During a game with twists and turns in the win probabilities, the Giants outlasted the Reds despite trailing by eight runs at the end of the third inning. Raisel Iglesias incurred his second blown save giving up a game tying home run to Stephen Vogt in the top of the ninth inning. It’s been a tumultuous season for Iglesias, who seemed to be turning the corner of late, but he’s been asked to record more than three outs in three of his last four outings and five times of his 14 outings this season.

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Al Melchior’s 2019 Bold Predictions

The other day, my wife asked me what my next column was going to be about, and I told her it would be my annual Bold Predictions piece. She wanted to contribute a prediction, and when I asked her what it would be, I realized it would be the perfect addition to this column.

So the first-ever Bold Prediction for Mary Beth Melchior is this: J.T. Realmuto will break the all-time single-season record for home runs for a catcher.
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Fantasy Relievers on Non-Contenders: Giants

Whether you’re measuring by WAR, SIERA or saves plus holds, Will Smith and Tony Watson were the Giants’ most valuable relievers in 2018. (If we include non-qualifiers, Pablo Sandoval had the lowest SIERA, but I’m not going to dwell on this.) When you think about non-contending teams who don’t need the luxury of going into the season multiple top-flight relievers, the Giants should come to mind first. So it should hardly be surprising that Smith and Watson’s names have been popping up in trade rumors.

Several teams have contacted the Giants about both relievers, and with bigger names like Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson recently coming off the board, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recognizes that the duo could be a good fit for small market teams still looking for relief help. Even if the Giants dealt both Smith and Watson, they would have a plethora of lefties still in place to fill that need in their bullpen.
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What Makes a Strikeout-Rate Breakout Last?

The emergence of Gerrit Cole as a top-10 starting pitcher and top-three pitcher for strikeouts was one of the more notable developments in fantasy in 2018. As unexpected as Cole’s emergence may have been, he did have a history of being an above-average strikeout pitcher, particularly in his second and third season with the Pirates. Just as noteworthy was a cohort of starters who catapulted themselves well above the major league norm for strikeout rate after having been average or below-average strikeout pitchers prior to this past season.
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