Archive for German Marquez

After a 2018 breakout season, Kyle Freeland gave us a lot to be confused about on draft day. As a rookie in 2017, Freeland defied conventional wisdom about Rockies pitchers, posting a lower-than-average HR/FB ratio at Coors Field (10.3 percent), and then he did it again last season (12.6 percent). He even took a relatively modest 92.0 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD) at home and lowered it to 91.2 mph. While Freeland had been especially effective at limiting homers with his four-seam fastball, last season, he was able to hit another level by getting more whiffs on his cutter.

We owners didn’t know exactly what to do with a pitcher who had consistent success at Coors Field. We didn’t treat him like the top 25 starter that he was in 2018, and for good reason. Skepticism about his home splits aside, Freeland benefited from an 82.8 percent strand rate that he was almost sure to regress from significantly. He had earned enough trust to be among the top 175 players taken overall on average, according to both FantasyPros and NFBC ADP. Even with a lower strand rate on the horizon, Freeland’s 3.67 FIP and 200-plus innings showed the potential value he could have for owners this year. To buy into the FIP and the innings, though, you had to buy into his homer-thwarting abilities.
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The emergence of Gerrit Cole as a top-10 starting pitcher and top-three pitcher for strikeouts was one of the more notable developments in fantasy in 2018. As unexpected as Cole’s emergence may have been, he did have a history of being an above-average strikeout pitcher, particularly in his second and third season with the Pirates. Just as noteworthy was a cohort of starters who catapulted themselves well above the major league norm for strikeout rate after having been average or below-average strikeout pitchers prior to this past season.
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In most drafts, I hit a point where I look at my queue and the remaining player pool, and I’m not excited about any of my options. I am currently participating in one of Justin Mason’s 2EarlyMock drafts, and as we enter the final rounds, I have yet to have that feeling. A number of players went in the middle rounds whom I had stashed in my queue several rounds before they were taken. The ones that I drafted felt like tremendous bargains, and the ones that I missed left me envious.
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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

German Marquez (Colorado Rockies) – I’m a little surprised to see Marquez still this available. It’s a 30% K rate, near 1.00 WHIP and sub 3.00 ERA over his last eight starts, half of which have come inside Coors. He’s improved his curveball while his slider is still a fantastic offering for any count. Go get him, he could push the needle in the right direction.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

German Marquez (Colorado Rockies) – It’s a pretty easy case for Marquez: He’s averaged over eight strikeouts per game across his last five starts – including three games in Coors. He’s improved his curveball, earned a 10%+ swinging strike rate in each game and while he has run into some trouble along the way, it’s a 3.15 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in his last seven outings. Take a chance.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Derek Holland (San Francisco Giants) – With Johnny Cueto going down with TJS, Holland looks to have a firm grip on a rotation spot in San Fran and you should capitalize on it. He moved over from the third base side of the rubber to first base in the middle of the June and the results have followed. Across his last 47.2 IP and 9 starts, Holland has boasted a 2.83 ERA, 26% K rate, and digestible 8% walk rate, making him a prime discount option.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) – This could be nothing, but it could be something as Marco Estrada has dominated in his last two starts, allowing 3 ER in 12 frames against the Yankees and Orioles, posting a wonderful 15/1 strikeout per walk ratio. His fastball has been toxic through the season, but has performed wildly better in these starts, suggesting that maybe, just maybe, a corner has been turned that could spell better days. One more great start will exile him from this weekly article, and this might be your only chance to act.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Jaime Barria (Los Angeles Angels) – Barria is owned right at the 15% threshold and I’m making an exception this week as I need to push the idea of owning Barria to those even in twelve teamers. Across his last four starts, Barria has returned a 1.93 ERA with a 26.4% K rate, 3.3% BB rate, and 0.94 WHIP, all while facing the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, and Rockies in Coors. His impetus for success is a slider that has seen its usage grow from 26% to 36% in those four outings while returning a 20% whiff rate and 45% marks in both zone and O-swing. That’s the makings of a money pitch and with an elite tool in his arsenal that he’s throwing over 35% of the time, Barria should able to provide value in plenty of leagues.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Anthony DeSclafani (Cincinnati Reds) – Tony Disco threw his final rehab start today and he may be worth the add if you’re looking for some stability at the backend of your staff. His 2016 season returned a 3.28 ERA across 20 starts with a 1.22 WHIP that works incredibly well in the current SP landscape. It doesn’t come with the largest ceiling, but those in deep leagues should be all over Desclafani.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Zack Wheeler (New York Mets) – I know, I know, Wheeler is holding a 5.32 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and it’s terrifying to consider him. But he also has a 66.6% LOB rate, 23.1% soft contact, and a 23.6% K rate that hint at better days. He’s fanned at least seven in four of his last five games and maybe, just maybe, this turns into something a bit more stable.

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