Archive for Geovany Soto

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Geo was a prime bounce-back candidate entering 2010, given that his strong walk and power numbers in ’09 were obscured by his batting average on balls in play taking a nose-dive. CHONE projected a .358 wOBA for the Cubbies backstop prior to the season, and ZiPS projected a .352 mark.

So far, Soto has outpaced those forecasts with a .386 wOBA. His BABIP, .246 last year, has shot up to .316 (his career average is .306), and he’s still driving the ball fairly often (.151 Isolated Power). The biggest reason Soto has scorched those pre-season forecasts, though, is his Bondsian walk rate — Geo has taken ball four in 22.1 percent of his plate appearances. That’s tops in the majors among batters with at least 100 PA.

Soto was a patient hitter in 2007 (20.1 outside-swing percentage) and 2008 (17.8 O-Swing). But this year, he has chased just 13.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches (second in the majors). Geo likely won’t keep this pace up, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection –.262/.357/.456, with a .360 wOBA –still makes him one of the best fantasy options at his position. Yet, Soto is still available in one-quarter of Yahoo Leagues. That makes me wanna take a Lou Pinella-like tantrum.

Mat Latos, Padres

As a 22-year-old starter who dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries on the farm, logging a career-high 127.2 innings between the minors and the majors in 2009, Latos isn’t likely to be burdened with a full-season big league workload in 2010. Still, he’s showing the excellent stuff — a 93-94 MPH fastball, an upper-80’s slider and a mid-80’s change — that allowed him to whiff 10.5 batters per nine frames as a prospect.

In 55.1 IP, Latos has 6.83 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 and a 3.81 xFIP. While the walk rate suggests he’s pounding the strike zone, that hasn’t been the case. Latos has placed 41.7% of his pitches in the zone, well below the 47.7% MLB average. Rather, the 6-6, 225 pound righty has induced swings on pitches off the plate 30.6% (27.6% MLB average). Latos has also gotten swinging strikes 9.3%, compared to the 8.3% MLB average. He’ll be handled cautiously, but Latos is a premium young arm in a pitcher’s paradise.

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays

The former Pirate has already popped 14 home runs in 2010. For reference, he went deep 16 times in 2006, 15 in 2007 and 2008 and 13 in 2009. Bautista has a .325 ISO, basically doubling up on his pre-season projections (.163 CHONE, .162 ZiPS), and his wOBA is .393 (.320 pre-season CHONE and ZiPS).

He’s lofting the ball more than ever, with a 52.3 FB% (43.7% career average), and those fly balls are finding the stands a whopping 20.9% of the time (11.5% career average). Odds are, “Joey Bats” (as he was known in Pittsburgh) hasn’t become a hulking, elite power hitter. But you can’t just pretend that his power surge hasn’t happened, either.

The best course of action is to take those pre-season projections and incorporate the extra data points we’ve gotten on Bautista over the past two months. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .339 wOBA for Bautista, with a .201 ISO.

Ted Lilly, Cubs

Lilly has been one of the best free agent signings among starting pitchers since he inked a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs prior to 2007. The lefty compiled 10 WAR from 2007-2009, providing about $44 million in value. However, Lilly hasn’t looked as sharp in 2010.

The 34-year-old, who began the season on the DL recovering from left shoulder and knee surgery, has 5.02 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.83 xFIP in 37.2 innings. Lilly has never been known for velocity, but his heater is down to an average of 85.3 MPH in 2010 after sitting 87-88 MPH in recent seasons. His slider, typically around 82 MPH, is averaging 79.4 MPH.

Keep in mind the sample size, but Lilly’s whiff rates are down across the board (data from texasleaguers.com):

Lilly has garnered swinging strikes 5.9% this year, compared to a 9.5% career average. His contact rate is 87.5% (79.7% career average, 80-81% MLB average). Perhaps this is just a blip, but Lilly needs to start missing more bats to be an above-average big league starter.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

Granted, LaPorta spent more time on the surgeon’s table than in the batting cage this past off-season — he had surgery on his left hip and left toe. But the 25-year-old, Cleveland’s supposed big catch in the CC Sabathia deal, has been extremely disappointing this season.

The career .291/.384/.557 minor league hitter has a paltry .240 wOBA in 110 trips to the plate. LaPorta showed decent patience as a prospect with a 10.3% walk rate, but he has hacked at 32.7% of pitches off the plate this year. The most surprising aspect of his season, however, is a total lack of pop — his ISO is in Juan Pierre territory, at .059.

While fantasy owners shouldn’t write him off entirely, LaPorta has an uninspiring .329 rest-of-season wOBA projection from ZiPS. League-average hitting from a defensively-challenged corner outfielder/1B/DH just isn’t very valuable.

Randy Wolf, Brewers

Signed by Milwaukee to a three-year, $29.75M deal during the winter, Wolf benefitted from a low BABIP and a high rate of stranding base runners during a contract year in 2009. The result was a 3.23 ERA that outpaced his xFIP (4.17) by nearly a run.

Both CHONE (4.22 pre-season FIP projection) and ZiPS (4.19) predicted that Wolf would be more serviceable starter than top-shelf arm in 2010. So far, the new Brewer has fallen short of that level of performance. Wolf has 6.09 K/9, 4.12 BB/9 and a 4.96 xFIP. The 33-year-old got swings on pitches out of the zone around 24% of the time in recent years, but that’s down to 20% this season. After putting about 53% of his pitches in the zone in 2008 and 2009, Wolf’s Zone% is 48.8. His swinging strike rate, around the MLB average recently, sits at 6.1%.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 6.85 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP. Wolf will likely pitch better from here on out, but that low-three’s ERA hurler from ’09 isn’t coming back.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops here.)

Rankings are the height of subjectivity, of course. Drafts are the expression of the subjective opinions of the different draftees, though, so lets see what we can learn by putting these players in their (subjective, fantasy-oriented) place.

One of the biggest arguments of the offseason in regards to this position will be whether or not Joe Mauer belongs in a tier of his own. Certainly, if he repeats his work from last year, he’ll be above and beyond the best catcher in the league. The problem with projecting his power next year is that he didn’t crack 30% fly balls last year, he just more than doubled his career HR/FB rate (and tripled 2008’s number). That uncertainty regarding his power ‘drags’ him down into a tier with the recovered Victor Martinez and the steady power producer Brian McCann.

Next comes the tier that mixes strong rookies with some doubt with an ageless wonder in Jorge Posada. Matt Wieters or Miguel Montero have the upside to blaze past Posada (at least in terms of batting average). Just look at the second halves that Wieters (.301/.351/.415) and Montero (.316/.366/.534) put up last year for a little taste of the possibility. Though Mike Napoli made a small stride in his strike out rate (27.1% in 2009, 29.7% career), it’s still high, and he’s still the most likely to put up the worst batting average of the group.

The third tier is a mix of riskier young catchers with upside remaining and less-valuable older catchers on their way down. Actually, to be fair, A.J. Pierzynski doesn’t seem to be declining currently with his best batting average in seven years, but he is utterly devoid of upside and provides minimal returns in the power categories. For example, despite a major step back in his slugging percentage (all the way down to .329), Russell Martin could easily hit more home runs than AJ next year (and that doesn’t even mention his stolen bases). Geovany Soto seems to have had some terrible luck (.251 BABIP, .310 career) and is a decent bet for a bounce back. Buster Posey has to be seen as more of a risk than the young veterans ahead of him, despite his strong minor league numbers, just because of his youth (22) and his struggles last year. Bengie Molina had his worst wOBA (.308) in six years and doesn’t have a starting job in hand currently.

The final tier includes a trio of long shots at this point. Though there is reason to remain excited about Chris Iannetta, there are negatives for every positive. You might want to point to his bad BABIP (.253), but that may have been because of his bad line drive rate (16%). You like a power hitter to hit fly balls, but maybe not as many as the young Rockie (52%). If he straightens out those hits a little, he could even leap a tier next year, and he’s the best long shot in the bottom tier. Ryan Doumit just can’t stay healthy, and Kurt Suzuki hadn’t even shown this power before last year (.421 slugging in 2009, .398 career) and without it, you’re relying on a catcher for (already modest) speed.

Many of us will own someone on the bottom of this list sometime next year, but will we really want to draft them at the beginning of the year?

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.

Consider that Rod Barajas and his .711 OPS is probably the 12th best catcher in most formats currently, and you’ll realize how thin the catching position really is. The buy-low catcher is an important phenomenon, especially in two-catcher leagues. Let’s take a look at two guys that could yet net you a top-12 finish at the position, despite their currently ugly stats.

Geovany Soto – Almost every secondary statistic screams that Soto is a great buy-low. Of course, any player with “Sweet” Lou Piniella as their manager has to come with an asterisk next to their name. They could be subject to the vagaries of their impulsive manager, and just as likely to end up in AAA as starting regularly. That’s how Soto ended up on the bench for a two game mental breather this past week. Maybe Piniella will take credit for the impending hot streak.

Yes, his four for eight so far this week (with a home run) should be the beginning of something good for Soto. Let me count the ways. The first is that his BABIP is a meager .261 against a .328 career number. This is in the face of a 20.9% line drive percentage, which is both decent and in line with his career percentage (20.6%). His fly ball rate, ground ball rate, walk rate and strikeout rate are all either the same as his career rates – or better. He’s walking more than ever and striking out less than ever. Pitchers are sending him more or less the same mix of pitches, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone.

When all of a player’s career numbers are the same or better, and only one number isn’t right, it’s a great bet that the player will recover to his career norms. A quick check at the speed of balls leaving his bat (thanks to Harry Pavlidis and his look at the speed of balls leaving the bat) shows us that Soto has about as many 90+ mph balls leaving his bat as Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley. Yes, he’s a good buy-low.

Chris Iannetta – This situation is not as clear. Early on in the season, I took a look at Iannetta’s legendary batted ball statistics. Back then he had a 5.1% line drive rate, easily the worst in the league. Along with his 69.2% fly ball percentage, his stats painted the picture of a young catcher swinging for the fences.

As with all outliers in small sample sizes, these numbers quickly came back into the fold. Iannetta is sporting a relatively robust 13.8% line drive percentage now, and a more modest 55% of his balls are traveling through the air. He’s still swinging for the fences – and now that it’s not so extreme, this is probably a good thing.

All the other numbers are mostly trending positive. He has the highest walk rate of his career, and his strikeout percentage is now at a three-year low. He’s swinging at fewer balls outside the zone than his career rate, and his contact rate in the zone and overall are above his career numbers.

Considering that his career line drive percentage is 19.5% in 865 career plate appearances, the ZiPS RoS prediction of a .261/.369/.479 finish to the season (with 10 more home runs) seems very achievable. If he can combine a higher line drive rate with the career-high fly ball rate, he could, of course, better the projection considerably, making him another good buy-low candidate.

For years, the path to Wrigley Field has been turbulent for Chicago Cubs position prospects. From Corey Patterson to Luis Montanez, Brian Dopirak to Ryan Harvey, Felix Pie (though Pie might yet make good in Baltimore) to Tyler Colvin, the folks from the North Side have had many a batter end up falling by the wayside. In fact, the last position player signed by the Cubbies to develop into an all-star prior to last season was Joe Girardi, all the way back in 1986.

The man that ended that ignominious streak in 2008, ironically, wasn’t viewed as that great of a prospect for the majority of his minor league career. Geovany Soto was the National League’s starting catcher in last year’s midsummer classic and took home NL Rookie of the Year hardware. In the minors, however, he often toiled behind more celebrated farm products, posting modest numbers that had most envisioning him as a future second-stringer rather than a cornerstone backstop.

Selected out of Puerto Rico in the 11th round of the 2001 amateur draft, Soto spent his first two pro years in rookie ball oscillating between catcher and first base. The 318th overall pick showed some ability to work the count and a modicum of pop, batting .260/.327/.387 in ’01 and .273/.328/.416 in 2002.

Bumped up to High-A Dayton of the Florida State league for the 2003 season, Geovany posted a tepid .242/.314/.316 line. He worked the count decently (10.4 BB%), but no one’s going to get excited over a .630 OPS. Heading into the 2004 season, Soto was in the prospect witness protection program: part-time catchers/possible first basemen who slug just north of .300 aren’t going to attract much adoration.

Soto showed signs of life at the plate at AA West Tennessee in ’04. He hit .271/.349/.401 for the Diamond Jaxx, displaying a good eye (12 BB%) and a little more thump (.130 ISO). The 6-1, 230 pounder got himself into better shape (shedding close to 30 pounds) and donned the tools of ignorance on a regular basis, catching 102 games. Feeling that the then-21 year-old Diamond Jaxx catcher was diamond in the rough, Baseball America jumped Soto up to the 14th spot on the Cubs’ top 30 prospects list following the season.

Feeling that he had made significant strides, the Cubs decided to promote Soto to AAA Iowa for the 2005 season. His performance didn’t collapse, but his offensive output was a bit disappointing: .253/.357/.342 in 292 AB. The 22 year-old did get one AB with the Cubs, and ranked 16th on BA’s Chicago top 30 prospects list.

Back with the I-Cubs in 2006, Soto had a similar level of output, save for an additional 20 points of batting average, a few less walks and a tiny bit of extra power (.272/.353/.386 in 342 AB). Soto soaked up a few more AB’s for the Cubs in September. BA (ranking Soto 17th) noted his improving defensive skills, but also felt that he “profile[d] more as a backup than a regular”, and that Soto was “destined for a third straight season in Iowa.”

The Puerto Rican backstop did indeed return to the corn fields in 2007, but he decided to transform into the Pacific Coast League’s version of Josh Gibson. Soto blasted the PCL to the tune of .349/.422/.640 in 444 PA. Sure, his batting average was sky-high (the result of a .411 BABIP), but Geovany finally showed some juice (.291 ISO) to go along with his discerning eye (12.2 BB%). That prolific performance caught the attention of the Cubs, who gave him a healthy dose of playing time in September. Soto soared up the prospect charts, ranking second in the Cubs’ system and 48th overall. BA pined that he “raised his ceiling from likely backup to potential all-star.”

That comment seemed prescient in 2008, as Soto made good on that all-star promise in his first full season in the majors. In 563 PA, he posted a .371 wOBA, ranking behind only Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. Batting .285/.364/.504, Soto compiled a .219 ISO ranked just three points behind McCann. In addition to hitting the ball with authority, Soto continued to be selective at the dish. He drew a free pass 11.2% of the time and swung at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is about 25%). If there’s one area where Geovany might regress, it’s in the batting average department. He did strike out 24.5% of the time, so maintaining a .280-.290 average isn’t all that likely. Given those stellar secondary skills, however, that hardly matters.

While more highly-touted bonus babies in Chicago’s system have often crashed and burned, Geovany Soto kept on chugging and has emerged as one of the most valuable assets in Major League Baseball. Catchers with his combination of plate judgment and extra-base sock are exceedingly rare, and the 26 year-old figures to turn in another all-star caliber season in 2009. Soto is no one-year wonder: he’s here to stay among the Mauers and McCann’s of the game.