Archive for fantasy second basemen

I’m a San Francisco Giants fan and our* starting second baseman will probably never play baseball again. His replacement Brandon Hicks is hitting just .182/.297/.359. Despite Hicks’ stellar work in the field (+4 DRS) and occasional dinger production, we need a new second baseman if we’re going to set the modern record for wins in a single season.

So I went on over to McCovey Chronicles which is like the New York Times for me given that I don’t know what’s going on in the world beyond Grant Brisbee’s opining on the Giants. Brisbee had a well-reasoned column on the Chase Utley trade rumors. I thought Utley had faded off into obscurity with Marco Scutaro. Instead, it turns out Utley has returned from nagging leg injuries to re-take his rightful position as one of the game’s best at the keystone. Who knew? If the Phillies have a Hall-of-Fame second baseman at the top of the league at his position in offensive production, why have they been so awful? Please let me know in the comments.

Anyway, the point here is that Chase Utley is still the man, apparently. He leads all second baseman in wOBA, and he’s second in WAR.

Brisbee’s article had a link to an in-depth Philadelphia Magazine piece on Utley. The article made me completely fall in love with the guy, and that wasn’t just because of the hot picture which is now my desktop background. The tight-fitting white shirt, the gun show, the intense look off into the distance, the soul patch, the wavy hair—are we underrating how handsome Chase Utley is?

Utley is not just a Hall-of-Fame player. He’s also a leader with a plus-plus clubhouse presence, an incredibly hard-worker, and a loving husband and father. Chase, if you’re reading this, with Father’s Day coming up, perhaps you’d like to adopt me? Please let me know in the comments.

After reading about the real Chase, I was pretty devastated I hadn’t drafted him in fantasy. I figured the health risk was too steep given his age (36 in December) and injury history (hasn’t been fully healthy since 2009). Now I’m stuck with underachieving early-round picks Buster Posey and Evan Longoria who can’t lead in my fantasy clubhouse until they start producing, which, like, any day now fellas! I’m thinking of proposing a blockbuster trade to acquire Utley so I can move Matt Carpenter to third base and spark the ballclub. But first, I consulted my fantasy coach who not only doesn’t want Utley on our Giants, but who also thinks Utley is an overrated fantasy player. Here’s a transcript of our chat:

Me: I’m going to write about Chase Utley. Any fantasy thoughts?

Fantasy Coach: I actually have no fantasy thoughts on Utley. I’ve never even thought about getting him on my team. I’ve never liked him; always thought he was overrated. I seriously think Rickie Weeks may be relevant once he’s traded to the Giants, A’s, or Yankees. The concern would be the ground-ball percentage (15th highest). He’s hitting line drives (20.3 percent), which is what made him successful before, but that’s not really sustainable and his ground-ball percentage is super high which doesn’t bode well for a return to big-time power.

Me: Utley leads all second basemen in wOBA.

Fantasy Coach: Cano, Kipnis, Dozier, Kinsler, Altuve, and Pedroia are better fantasy players. I can think of seven or eight second basemen I’d rather have than Utley.

Me: Ouch. Well, he’s third in wOBA since the start of last year, so it’s not like his defense—which doesn’t count in fantasy—is carrying his value. And there’s no park adjustment in fantasy, so offensive production only, he’s at the top.

Fantasy Coach: Right, but that’s not the only calculus in fantasy. Matt Carpenter is also good at hitting baseballs, but he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases, so he’s a ghost-runner on first a bunch of times.

Me: Which is why we need a sabermetric revolution with fantasy stats.

Chase Utley might not be the most valuable fantasy second baseman at this stage of his career because he doesn’t steal bases or dig the long ball anymore, but I doubt he’ll mention that in his Hall-of-Fame speech. Also, on my fantasy Giants team I spend most of the day thinking about, I just traded Kyle Crick for him. Get on it, Sabey-Sabes; we need the man.

*I’m basically on the team

At this point, the reader should not be surprised that I claimed Neil Walker. I’ve often touched on him in the Roto Riteups — no really, I have a bit of a man-crush on him — and so it was only fitting I tackle his end of season numbers. Before we dive too deep into the stats, here are my official top 3 Walker Power Rankings, in order:

3. Walker, Texas Ranger
2. Neil Walker
1. AT-AT Walker
Read the rest of this entry »

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)

Utley is the clear winner at this position, both for his individual potential and for the offensive protection that he has around him in the Phillies lineup. He has 25-30 homer potential and he is one of the few second basemen that could produce both 100 runs scored and RBI. His 23 steals were the icing on the cake in ’09 but don’t count on him breaking the 20-mark again.

Kinsler is another second baseman that benefits from a good hitting environment, and a solid lineup. He hit just .253 in ’09 but he produced a 30-30 season and is just 27 years old. Don’t be shocked if he produces his first 100 RBI season in 2010. Roberts is starting to get a little gray around the edges but he’s also very consistent and has appeared in 155+ games for three straight seasons. Of concern, though, is the dwindling stolen base totals from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three seasons.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
5. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
7. Aaron Hill , Toronto (.357 wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips , Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)
9. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)

These middle options were the hardest to rank and you could probably mix numbers four through eight and I wouldn’t argue with you too strongly. Although Cano produced bigger numbers in ’09, you have to be worried about his motivation and consistency. Pedroia is a safer pick but the upside is not as big. Phillips is another player who worries me a bit and I think he’s still a little overrated based on his 30-30 season in ’07. With that said, don’t sneeze at a 20-20 second baseman.

Hill has the potential to be one of the most overrated players in 2010 fantasy drafts, thanks to his 36 homers and 108 RBI. On the plus side, he showed a power boost in ’07, as well, but his ’08 season was ruined by a concussion. With that said, 20 homers and 80 RBI is probably a more realistic projection for the upcoming season. Zobrist is another second baseman who is probably coming off of a career year, but he has some positional flexibility; His minor league numbers did not hint at that type of MLB offense. Uggla is going to hurt you in the batting average category but he’s also the safest bet amongst keystone players to repeat 30 homers.

The Leftovers:
10. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
12. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)
13. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
15. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

As long as Lopez maintains his second base eligibility (and he shouldn’t become a full-time first baseman in Seattle in ’10), he has value based on his power. I expect a bounce-back season from Kendrick in ’10 but his value is almost all batting average (maybe some runs too). It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays this season and if it will have any effect on Hudson’s play. Polanco is going to be a weak third base fantasy option, but he has value as long as the second-base eligibility remains; He’ll benefit greatly from hitting ahead of Utley and Howard. Stewart has the potential to offer versatility on your roster with the ability to play second base and third base (as well as the outfield in some leagues). Weeks is a wild card.

Up Next: The Third Basemen