Draft Order: The Second Basemen
As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.
As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.
The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)
Utley is the clear winner at this position, both for his individual potential and for the offensive protection that he has around him in the Phillies lineup. He has 25-30 homer potential and he is one of the few second basemen that could produce both 100 runs scored and RBI. His 23 steals were the icing on the cake in ’09 but don’t count on him breaking the 20-mark again.
Kinsler is another second baseman that benefits from a good hitting environment, and a solid lineup. He hit just .253 in ’09 but he produced a 30-30 season and is just 27 years old. Don’t be shocked if he produces his first 100 RBI season in 2010. Roberts is starting to get a little gray around the edges but he’s also very consistent and has appeared in 155+ games for three straight seasons. Of concern, though, is the dwindling stolen base totals from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three seasons.
The Next Best Thing:
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
5. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
7. Aaron Hill , Toronto (.357 wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips , Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)
9. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)
These middle options were the hardest to rank and you could probably mix numbers four through eight and I wouldn’t argue with you too strongly. Although Cano produced bigger numbers in ’09, you have to be worried about his motivation and consistency. Pedroia is a safer pick but the upside is not as big. Phillips is another player who worries me a bit and I think he’s still a little overrated based on his 30-30 season in ’07. With that said, don’t sneeze at a 20-20 second baseman.
Hill has the potential to be one of the most overrated players in 2010 fantasy drafts, thanks to his 36 homers and 108 RBI. On the plus side, he showed a power boost in ’07, as well, but his ’08 season was ruined by a concussion. With that said, 20 homers and 80 RBI is probably a more realistic projection for the upcoming season. Zobrist is another second baseman who is probably coming off of a career year, but he has some positional flexibility; His minor league numbers did not hint at that type of MLB offense. Uggla is going to hurt you in the batting average category but he’s also the safest bet amongst keystone players to repeat 30 homers.
The Leftovers:
10. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
12. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)
13. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
15. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)
As long as Lopez maintains his second base eligibility (and he shouldn’t become a full-time first baseman in Seattle in ’10), he has value based on his power. I expect a bounce-back season from Kendrick in ’10 but his value is almost all batting average (maybe some runs too). It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays this season and if it will have any effect on Hudson’s play. Polanco is going to be a weak third base fantasy option, but he has value as long as the second-base eligibility remains; He’ll benefit greatly from hitting ahead of Utley and Howard. Stewart has the potential to offer versatility on your roster with the ability to play second base and third base (as well as the outfield in some leagues). Weeks is a wild card.
Up Next: The Third Basemen
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
The only reason to rank Stewart below Uggla is if you think Stewart will see a lot fewer at-bats. Check out the similarities in projections between the two,
http://www.rotosavants.com/2010/02/cheap-in-2010-ian-stewart.html
ssssssssssssshhhhhhh . . . not so loud; my opponents will hear you (though they probably already have).
Man, did Brandon Phillips sleep with your girlfriend and then Brian Roberts helped beat him up for you?
i’d swap Brandon Phillips and Roberts in this list. Whatever edges Roberts has in R/SB/AVG (my 10 team estimates are 1.2 points combined) are more than made up for BP’s better HR/RBI (2.0 points combined).
Agree w/ Aaron on Uggla/Stewart. I like Uggla but not by much. Guys like Hudson and Polanco have so little upside that you might as well take a chance with a Kelly Johnson or Scott Sizemore and, if they don’t pan out, grab something close to a Polanco/Hudson off waivers (thinking 10-12 team).
No Asdrubal? I would have Stewart right behind Uggla, but not ahead (at least not until he outproduces him).
Brian Roberts does not belong as a Top Target, send him down a tier. Why do people continue to rank Pedroia so high? Phillips will beat him in HR/RBI/SB easily.
3. Phillips
4. Cano
5. Pedroia
6. Roberts
Then make another tier for Zobrist, Hill, Uggla and Stewart, imo.
With late SS deeper than late 2B, I’m pretty sure I’ll target Asdrubal here. I’d take him over Uggla any day. Was far more valuable last year (in 5×5 context), and still has upside.
RE: Pedroia. People draft Fielder in the first round as (basically) a two-category monster. DP is, imo, a monster for average and runs…two categories that don’t jump out at you for a 3rd or 4th rounder, but at a weak position that’s a lot of separation from everyone else. Ichiro goes about the same place, yet you get similar contribution from a MI.
He’s one of the few guys where I really disagree with the projections. I think 2009 was a down year and easily take the over on a .308 batting average. Probably the main driver behind ranking him 3rd vs 6th among 2B.
He had over 1,300 at bats in 07/08, with BABIP of .333/.331. Last year that dropped to .297 and the projections have him closer to 2009…not sure why. He’s still entering his prime, and his BB/K is about as elite as they come. Personally I think it was a little bit of bad luck and a little bit of post-MVP pressure.
If he hits .320/15/80/120/18 this year, would you expect four 2B to do better?
If he hits that line, then he’s challenging Kinsler for #2 Second baseman…
I’m just not sure I see that happening, but if you do, then he’s practically a second rounder.
Just to add to either mob mentality / the wisdom of the crowd, I agree, Phillips and Roberts should be switched. Particularly given the herniated back. I think a study at THT showed that back problems are one of the highest predictors of DL time. But that might have been for pitchers.
I think you mean Lopez shouldn’t become a full time 3rd basemen in ’10?
Weighing in on Pedroia:
1. In roto leagues I won’t argue too much that Roberts and Phillips should be higher
2. In points leagues Pedroia has outscored these guys for the last 2 years by 20-100 points thanks to his 50+ doubles/year (which do nothing for you in roto but add up in points leagues)
Not to be a homer, but I think you’re underestimating Cano. I’d put him at number 3. I think you can relatively safely bank on a .310 average or so, and assuming that his terrible numbers with RISP last year normalize even a little bit, he should easily approach or top 100 R and 100 RBI, along with 20+ homers. Basically, he’s going to be right at the top of all 2Bmen in four categories, and even though he’ll give you nothing in the SB department, his four category consistency should count for something.
Couldn’t agree more. I’d LOVE for him to be the 4th best player on my offense next year! Maybe even a 3rd rounder depending who’s available.
Where would Gordon Beckham be ranked? He will be playing 2B for the white sox this year…but would you put him in with uggla and stewart?
Yeah, he’ll be 2B eligible within a couple of weeks in most leagues…
severely underrating phillips, i agree he should be #3
Especially if you aren’t concerned with the BA risk.
I really see Cano, Phillips and Pedroia as equals. You take one of them based on how your team has drafted (or guys you plan on targeting), as each provides better value in specific categories.
Might seem obvious, but so many people try and just rank guys based on their stats alone, and not what they would provide to your team as a whole.
I do have Phillips ranked higher, as I see him outproducing the other 2 when you through out BA (maybe even including it if he has a higher BABIP than his crappy sub .300 norm).
Why exactly is Cano unmotivated? Because he seems relaxed in the field? Because he came off a career year? Because you feel he is a player who doesn’t care much about his craft?
If you read about his offseasons, you will see that his always one of the players who works specifically with Kevin Long to improve his swing. Yankees fans hear more about him trying to improve his swing than any other player. I’m not sure where this “unmotivated” or “lazy” label comes from other than the fact that he his a free-swinger with a smooth strokes and he often makes plays look easy at 2nd base. Everything else suggests he works hard and cares about his job.
yea, I think the unmotivated remark is pretty uncalled for. I think the guy is peaking, probably this year if any based on the fantastic offense around him. I would expect less biased analysis from fan graphs. that sounds more like an argument for why the phillies have the best infield since 1949 or what not then why Cano shouldn’t be a top second baseman producer.
yo how bout some jose reyes in that last one?
oh my bad this is second basemen. my bad