Archive for fantasy catchers

Today is kind of a big day for the U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team. I’m excited. I haven’t really done the chant thing yet, but that’s mostly because I watched their group-stage matches in my home, where for some reason I’d feel more uncomfortable doing it.

I categorized the catchers for this month by USMNT’s all-time leaders in clean sheets. (That’s “shutouts,” which are registered by goalkeepers, for the uninitiated.) The Yanks could use one of those today versus Belgium. I doubt that they’ll be so fortunate, but I expect them to exhibit considerably more promise in the attacking third than they did against zee Germans.

The more clean sheets, the higher the netminder. No subjective hierarchy here. Just like my catcher tiers. Wink wink. You’re welcome to compare to last month’s.

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Is Wilin Rosario the high-upside player he seemed to be a couple of years ago (and appeared to remain coming into this season)? Is he just on the wrong side of some bad platoon splits these days (and perhaps screwed for eternity)?

A reader asked questions like these in a comment on a recent podcast, and we discussed them in a subsequent pod. I think the reader did well to get at the heart of the matter. (I added the “screwed for eternity” part.)

The player has a lot potential value because he has a lot of power, even if it’s not reflected in his home run total. The batting average (.245) this season has been disappointing, naturally. Brett Talley’s survey of “The Best Fantasy Hitters of the Past Calendar Year” doesn’t do enough to console 2014 Rosario owners, especially those in redrafters or those who’ve experienced only these last nearly three months.

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The Oakland Athletics indirectly piqued the interest of astute fantasy owners – and Mike Podhorzer – with the preseason news that they planned to slot John Jaso at DH regularly in order to help him to maintain his health. Naturally, this carried other implications, the primary of which is that right-handed-hitting catcher Derek Norris appeared to be in line for a spike in playing time.

The A’s seemed to dash hopes of fantasy owners in deep leagues, but only briefly. By the end of spring training, they’d elected to go with Daric Barton at first base and to relegate Brandon Moss to DH. That arrangement meant more time behind the plate for Jaso and less time for Norris, period, initially. Barton failed to impress at the dish after less than a month and a half, so he and his plus mitt were designated for assignment. Thus, the excitement about Norris was on again.

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Some fantasy pundits – including a few at RotoGraphs – and owners were optimistic about the fortunes of Joe Mauer entering this season, in large part because the Minnesota Twins were moving him away from catcher permanently. Although his brand of statistical output is mediocre for a first baseman, the catcher eligibility he retains could make him one of the more valuable rotisserie commodities in this transition year.

Mauer’s apologists – such as yours truly – were confident of his chance to avoid injury as long as he manned a less stressful position. His rough first two-plus months of the 2014 campaign seem to have done little to tarnish the RotoGraphs group’s and my hopes, though.

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Good timing. The RotoGraphs consensus rankings for catchers went up yesterday. The more information the merrier. I’ve made some adjustments – a few significant – since the backstop tiers I developed for May. Between the two, you should have a good idea of how fantasy owners in your league might view certain crouchers for the rest of the season.

I’m single, so I’ve been known to purchase a frozen pizza or four. I haven’t tried them all, so in a few cases, I’ve taken the word of a reviewer and combined it with my feelings about the picture on the box and other information that I can interpret with uninhibited bias. What do you know?! Just like my tiers.

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It didn’t seem like a big deal, at the time, when Matt Wieters missed a late-April contest because of forearm soreness. He returned to the lineup for a few games, then sat out twice more with what the club began to call elbow soreness. Less than a week into May came the report that he was scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews, who would examine the results of an MRI on the Baltimore Orioles backstop’s elbow. Dr. Andrews determined that Wieters wasn’t a candidate for elbow-ligament replacement surgery shortly thereafter.

Meanwhile, Wieters returned the lineup and played in four of five games, all of them as the DH. He was unable to serve the team behind the plate because the ailment affects his ability to throw, but early indications were that it doesn’t hamper him at the dish. He also took ground balls at first base on at least one occasion as the O’s weighed their options. It was worthwhile to Baltimore to lose some flexibility on the roster as long as Wieters could hit, but entering play on May 11, he was hitless in his last 10 at-bats. They’d obviously determined that keeping him active was no longer in their or his best interests, so he headed to the disabled list.

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It’s not unusual to find several unexpected names among the top fantasy producers at a position nearly a quarter of the way into a particular season. Because they’re unforeseen, they aren’t necessarily among your league’s most owned players.

At some point, though, some antsy owner will have begun to question his loyalty to a player he drafted when the season-to-date performance of a player he didn’t is still rated higher in his league’s free-agent list. Even though at some point in the near future, regression to the means of both players would seem likelier than not to benefit him, ignoring signs of changes in their baseline performance and reliability.

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Really, who isn’t? OK, maybe Zack Cozart.

But, in general, a fastball is what a hitter sees more often than not. And, in general, a hitter hopes to see a fastball in a “fastball count” more often than not. Perhaps the one they want is of the four-seam variety, but any fastball will do if a pitcher isn’t commanding it. Which probably has something to do with how the pitcher arrived at the fastball count in the first place.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t any different from most hitters in that regard.

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I’m not a connoisseur of much of anything pop culture, and I don’t consider myself the most well-informed citizen on any particular subject. I probably give myself less credit than I deserve, relative to the general population. Which is full of people who know what is “just the best,” even though it’s something different every other day. Which of course instantly discredits them because of their failure to understand the function of a superlative. But that doesn’t mean I won’t worry about my own qualifications.

I have doubts about whether the kind of fancy tier names I’ll generate will be worthy of those that have graced the virtual pages of FanGraphs. Howard Bender classified the catchers based on lodging chains at which he’s stayed (I’m just assuming, probably incorrectly, but amusingly) last month. That’s a good theme, fairly simple. I’ll try to follow that lead.

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As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here. As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (.438 wOBA)
2. Victor Martinez, Boston (.375 wOBA)
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.359 wOBA)

It should come as no shock that the reigning American League MVP is the top target amongst catchers. Mauer’s value should be helped by a full season from Justin Morneau, as well as the additions of second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom will reduce the playing time for the offensive vacuum known as Nick Punto. A better-balanced lineup can only help Mauer’s RBI and run totals.

Martinez is a great player to have in your fantasy lineup because he is eligible at both catcher and first base, which gives you added flexibility. A full season in Boston (He was traded from Cleveland midway through 2009) should have a positive effect on his numbers – especially in terms of RBI opportunities, and he should see better pitches now that he has more protection in the lineup.

McCann got off to a slow start in ’09 and April was pretty much a write-off thanks to vision problems, which are no longer a concern. On the downside, the Braves lineup is not significantly better than it was in ’09 so he will have limited protection in the lineup if Chipper Jones and/or Troy Glaus start to show their age.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jorge Posada, New York AL (.378 wOBA)
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (.330 wOBA)
6. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.357 wOBA)
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles NL (.307 wOBA)
8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles AL (.362 wOBA)

Clearly, Posada had an outstanding year in ’09 but he appeared in just 111 games and the 38-year-old can’t swim in the fountain of youth forever (although New York should obviously try bottling whatever Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are drinking). On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wieters is just coming into his own. You even might be able to draft the catcher in a favorable spot if your fantasy baseball owners are still feeling let down by his ’09 season. Wieters had an encouraging debut for a 23-year-old catcher, but expectations were incredibly (and unfairly) high for him.

Montero seized the starting gig away from Chris Snyder in ’09 thanks to an injury but fantasy managers would probably feel a little bit better if Snyder was off-loaded to another club in spring training (after proving his health). Martin appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness a couple years ago, but his power has dried up. Still, there aren’t many backstops that can steal you 10-20 bases in a season and he’s reportedly bulked up a bit in an effort to hit more taters. Napoli would perhaps be more deserving of a higher ranking if A) Jeff Mathis projected to have fewer at-bats, or B) The club would give more at-bats to Napoli at DH. Unfortunately, the addition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui will eat up most of the DH opportunities.

The Leftovers:
9. Geovany Soto, Chicago NL (.310 wOBA)
10. Chris Iannetta, Colorado (.346 wOBA)
11. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (.321 wOBA)
12. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.308 wOBA)
13. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.337 wOBA)
14. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (.306 wOBA)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago AL (.326 wOBA)

Of the “leftovers,” the highest potentials come from Soto, Iannetta, and Doumit. Soto was not in great playing shape last season and he’s reportedly motivated to recapture his past Rookie of the Year glory. Iannetta has the offensive bonus of playing in Colorado, but the free agent signing of Miguel Olivo could mean fewer at-bats, unless the youngster breaks out in a big way. Doumit’s ’09 season was ruined by injuries and he appeared in 75 games. He has good power for a catcher but he’s also hurt by a below-average offense in Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The First Basemen