Archive for fantasy busts

Just before the season started, the FanGraphs staff (including RotoGraphs contributors) was asked to make its official predictions for the upcoming season. We took our best shot at predicting the playoff teams, MVP and Cy Young Award winners, and Rookies of the Year for 2017. Perhaps in the coming weeks we will check in with the top picks for MVP and Cy Young, but in this article, we’re going to look at the top rookies.

Our staff picks on the American League side had Andrew Benintendi (40 votes) as the overwhelming favorite to be named the league’s top rookie, with Jharel Cotton (4) and Mitch Haniger (4) rounding out the top three.

Over in the National League, Dansby Swanson (27 votes) was the favorite by a wide margin, followed by Robert Gsellman (12), Manuel Margot (5), and Hunter Renfroe (4).

While it’s extremely early and still much too soon to make any concrete statements about who will win this year’s awards, let’s take a look at the wide-ranging early season performances of the players we expect to be the game’s top newcomers: Read the rest of this entry »

When you examine at end-of-season rankings, some players stand out more than others against the backdrop of their rotisserie-successful peers. But a lot happens in the course of a year. It’s unfair to dismiss the accomplishments of players as something … less than fluke but more than breakthrough … without some thorough investigation.

Some players finally realize their potential and have built a foundation of skills (including the “health skill”) on which their new performance baselines can rest. But others haven’t. And that’s usually reflected in their outcomes the following season. It happens to some players unexpectedly, but some are easy to see coming.

More than a handful of players stick out right away as candidates for that kind of result next year. Too many things went their way, and I wouldn’t expect so many to go in their favor once again. We’ve discussed these players in the podcast at one time or another. Sometimes I think that such players are obvious, but there’s always a proponent or buyer.

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When discussing a fantasy baseball ‘Least Valuable Player,’ we’re looking at a few different things to factor in. Obviously, an under-performing stat line is one. But we’re also looking at the relative cost of the player in relation to other players at his position. If he didn’t cost you more than a 15th round draft pick or $2 in your auction and he didn’t perform well, then so be it. Very little harm done. But when you’ve used a third or a fourth round pick on him and he doesn’t meet expectations, it’s a much bigger deal. We’re also taking into account that player’s in-season trade value. Some guys who are in a slump, you can still trade them on name and reputation, but when the performance is so bad that no one wants to trade for them, an LVP award is just begging to be won. For me, this season, no one epitomizes the LVP award more than Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro.

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A great band name?  Definitely.  Especially if you’ve got a series of gigs in downtown Cincinnati.  But we’re going to stick to fantasy baseball here and talk about the fact that Drew Stubbs’ league leading 205 strikeouts (yes, that’s right, he struck out more than Mark Reynolds) may just help you land what could be one of 2012’s most valuable fantasy assets.  Sure, his 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases will keep him on most people’s radar, but the .243 average, those strikeouts, and the overall decline from 2010’s breakout season should help keep the price down and allow you to grab him at a more bargain cost.

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The first half of the 2011 season saw two of the game’s better power hitters fall into a veritable abyss when it came to production.  Both players were joining new teams, both signed big contracts, and both were drafted with home run expectations that were sky high.  But both Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn struggled mightily to begin the year, and while those that drafted them were becoming more and more frustrated by the day, other GMs were sitting back and licking their chops, waiting for the moment of a huge buy-low opportunity.  Those that tried it with Uggla just finished reaping the benefits of a 33 game hit streak and a .361-12-28 second half run.  Those of us who chose Dunn?  Well….not so much. Read the rest of this entry »

“Don’t take your love away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If you go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause breaking up his hard to do.”

It plays over and over in my head every time I look at a roster that includes the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Joe Mauer.  Aggravataing?  Yes.  Both the song and the lack of production.  But what’s really aggravating is that question that keeps popping into your head as well, “How long do I stick with this guy?” Read the rest of this entry »