Archive for fantasy baseball

Already, the excitement over the recent callups of Trent Grisham, Josh Rojas and Ty France has started to fade. These are just some of the fantasy implications resulting from changes in National League lineups and batting orders this week.

Arizona

The Diamondbacks continue to employ a platoon of Jarrod Dyson and Adam Jones, but with the demotion of Tim Locastro to Triple-A Reno on Aug. 15, David Peralta is back to playing everyday in left field. He has made seven straight starts and is in the lineup once again for Friday night’s game in Milwaukee.
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With a handful of closers unavailable to pitch, Thursday turned into Substitute Closer’s Day. The appearance by a fill-in that could signal the biggest fantasy impact was Derek Law’s foray into a save opportunity against the Dodgers. That’s because the Blue Jays’ placed Ken Giles on the paternity list prior to Thursday night’s game, and the incumbent closer could be miss the entire upcoming weekend series in Seattle. In other words, Law could have more save chances over the next three days.

Law had already filled in for Giles on a short-term basis earlier this month, when he was out with right elbow inflammation. Since returning on Aug. 13, Giles has made only three appearances, and only one of those outings was for a save opportunity. Because of Giles’ relative inactivity, we have kept Law in the grid as a co-closer, as it’s conceivable he could get saves if the Jays want to be careful with Giles’ workload.
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Not so long ago, when it came to pull-heavy power hitters, there was no equal to Brian Dozier. Based on developments currently unfolding this season, the genre could explode in 2020.

Back in 2016, Dozier was unique among major league hitters in his ability to pull flyballs at an extremely high rate consistently. Among hitters who launched at least 100 flies in both 2015 and 2016, Dozier was the only batter to exceed a 35 percent pull rate on flyballs in both seasons. He essentially lapped the field, surpassing a 40 percent rate in both campaigns. Then Dozier was the only hitter to pull off the feat in both 2016 and 2017.
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When Julio Teheran takes the mound against the Mets at SunTrust Park on Thursday night, he will be looking to extend a hot streak that extends back to the beginning of July. Over his last seven starts encompassing 42.1 innings, Teheran has registered a 1.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Since July 1, Teheran ranks 30th in Roto value among starting pitchers (per CBSSports.com rankings), and he would place in the top 20 if not for inconsistent run support and a Luke Jackson blown save that cost him a win against the Nationals on July 19. Despite excellent ratios, Teheran is just 2-1 over this stretch.

When a pitcher gets more strikeouts and reduces walks and home runs, an increase in fantasy value is to be expected, and Teheran has recently been accomplishing all three things. The decrease in his walk rate is the most dramatic of the improvements and also the most needed. Over the preceding season-and-a-half, Teheran’s walk rate was a lofty 11.7 percent, but over his last seven outings, that rate is a slightly-below-league-average 8.1 percent. He did not have a home run problem over the first three months of this season, as evidenced by his 1.05 HR/9, but since then, he has been even better at keeping the ball in the park with an 0.85 HR/9.
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With the trade deadline behind us, player movement has slowed to a crawl, but as in any other week, injuries and slumps are causing managers to tweak their lineups. Here are this week’s most notable changes in the National League.

Arizona

Just as it appeared that Christian Walker was losing playing time against righties, he has gained it back. Walker has started five straight games, including three against right-handed starters. Instead, it’s Adam Jones who is losing playing time, as he has been out of the starting lineup for three of the last five games with a right-handed starter
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Thursday night’s schedule consisted of only eight games, and even for a small slate, there weren’t many high leverage situations to speak of. It was a big night, however, for some long relievers, so let’s check in on them and what they might have to offer us in fantasy.

Luis Cessa was one of only three relievers to notch a save on Thursday night, but his required him to pitch the final three innings of the Yankees’ 12-6 win over the Blue Jays. The 27-year-old righty has had issues with the long ball, and the one run he allowed was a Reese McGuire solo home run — the 11th homer he has allowed over 58.1 innings. He also tallied five strikeouts, giving him 61 on the season, which is as many as Ken Giles has and more than either Kenley Jansen or Sean Doolittle has. It was Cessa’s first save of the season, so he is nowhere close to Giles, Jansen or Doolittle in value, but in deeper formats,  you may not be able to find a reliever who can help more with strikeouts.
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The Mets were hardly in need of a closer during Sunday’s 13-2 win over the Pirates, but on a day full of reliever drama, they were the biggest story in terms of closer news. After Sunday’s game, Mickey Callaway said to reporters, “I don’t think we can lock ourselves into one thing,” and in this context, the “thing” was the team’s closer. The incumbent, Edwin Díaz, has allowed at least one run in each of his last four appearances, so that has opened the door for the primary setup reliever, Seth Lugo, to at least enter the saves mix. For now, Díaz and Lugo are listed in the closer grid as co-closers with Lugo designated in the lead role.

While Díaz — one of last season’s elite closers — has had his ups-and-downs throughout the season, two of this season’s best closers faltered on Sunday. Kirby Yates blew his third save in 35 tries in the Padres’ 11-10 loss to the Dodgers, as he gave up Max Muncy‘s walk-off two-RBI double in the bottom of the ninth. Yates was also charged with his third loss, though he may have been spared that fate if not for a fielding error by Luis Urías that allowed Alex Verdugo to be safe at second base on Corey Seager’s fielder’s choice, just before Muncy’s double. The one earned run that Muncy drove in was the first allowed by Yates since June 23 and just the sixth he has allowed all season.
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The trade deadline produced some playing time winners and losers across the National League. While it’s premature to know how some of these situations will play out, the Reds, Cubs and Phillies in particular already have some interesting developments that are worth paying attention to.

Arizona

It appears that Torey Lovullo has at least two platoons in place, with Jake Lamb and Christian Walker splitting time at first base and Jarrod Dyson and Wilmer Flores sharing a spot in the lineup (with Ketel Marte starting at second base versus righties and in center field versus lefties). Neither of these is a strict platoon, but these are the tendencies that Lovullo has shown over the past week. A third platoon may be developing, as David Peralta has received each of the last five starts in left field against a righty, but Tim Locastro has taken two of the last three against a left-handed starter.
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Just when it seemed like Tuesday night’s three-team blockbuster was going to be the marquee deal of this year’s deadline trades, Mike Hazen needed someone to hold his beer in the final hours of trading. In dealing Zack Greinke to the Astros for four prospects (which, incidentally, included Seth Beer), the Diamondbacks’ executive vice president and general manager may have helped to change the complexion of this year’s postseason, but in terms of impacting the fantasy landscape, Greinke was going to be a must-start pitcher whether in Arizona, Houston or anywhere else.

However, Hazen made two other trades involving pitchers that will likely have an effect on some fantasy owners. Meanwhile, the trade involving possibly the largest impact on a pitcher’s fantasy value will get less notice for its real world consequences.
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By this time next week, several teams in the National League will probably have lineups with a different look. For now, managers are mostly tinkering on the margins. Still, there are a few players who have recently seen their playing time take a turn for the better or the worse.

Arizona

David Peralta made his return to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday after missing three weeks with a shoulder injury. He pinch-hit on Wednesday, but on Friday he started, and Christian Walker was the regular who made way for him. Going forward, Peralta’s presence could impact Jarrod Dyson and Tim Locastro, who had been splitting time in left field. A change in the batting order could be in the works, as Dyson and Locastro have been serving as the leadoff hitters. Peralta has batted exclusively in the third and fourth spots so far this season.
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