Archive for Edwin Jackson

I did this on Monday as well, but below you’ll find a chart showing how today’s probable starters have fared against hitters of each handedness this year. This chart is something I create in the leaderboard section of the site, and it’s extremely helpful when picking hitters for the day. Unfortunately, the list must be created manually as there isn’t a filter for the day’s probable starters. Because inputting all the names takes a little time, I figure I’ll just do that work for you. After the jump we’ll use the chart to pick some hitters for the day. And we’ll pick a couple of starters, too.

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On Monday I touched on the idea of examining how hitters have performed against specific types of pitchers to try and find good daily matchups. Because a batter’s performance against a specific pitcher is too small of a sample to be predictive, why not look at a batter’s performance against that pitcher and others like him?

Let me qualify everything I’m about to say by saying that this method of choosing batters is merely something I am exploring. Despite the increased sample size I can get by looking at a batter’s performance against similar pitchers, it’s still usually not a huge sample size. And I’m also doing a pretty crude job of finding similar pitchers. I’m considering strikeout and walk skills, groundball and flyball tendencies, frequency of fastball usage and velocity as my variables in finding similar pitchers.

It’s hardly scientific and nothing close to exact. But I’m almost positive it’s a better approach than just using simple batter-versus-pitcher data. But I’m not sure it’s better than just looking at how a batter has performed against either left or right handed pitching as a whole. Read the rest of this entry »

When picking hitters, the quality and handedness of the opposing pitcher are probably the most important considerations aside from whether the hitter himself is any good and likely to be in the lineup. And it makes sense to be very mindful of the opposing pitcher; the hitter will probably face the starter for most of his plate appearances that day. But starting pitchers are averaging 5.89 innings per start this year, which means that a full third of most games is handled by other pitchers to which we give no consideration. When you consider the fact that most pitchers you choose to start hitters against are below average, the bullpen probably factors into closer to four innings of each game as opposed to just three.

I decided to figure out which bullpens are the most hitter friendly in Draftstreet contests. To do this I had to figure out how many points each reliever has allowed to this point in Draftstreet contests. I pulled all of their batting against statistics, added up all the positive scoring events for hitters and then subtracted all the negative scoring events for hitters. The formula was this: (1B + (2B x 2) + (3B x 3) + (HR x 4) + (HBP x 0.75) + (BB x 0.75) + (R x 1.5) + (RBI x 1.5) + (SB x 2) + (SAC x .75)) – ((K x 0.75) + (GDP x 0.75) + CS). Read the rest of this entry »

• Dee Gordon’s current strikeout rate is very alarming, if you ask me. Gordon has already struck out in more than 20% of his plate appearances. Yes, it’s early, but his contact rate has also suffered, and it’s really going to kill him if it continues. Gordon can’t steal second if he doesn’t get on first, and even during last year’s stint, he only did that 33% of the time.

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When Scott Boras and company decided they didn’t like the smell of the longer term offers Edwin Jackson was receiving and started kicking the tires on a one-year deal, it was almost tailor made for a team like the Washington Nationals.

They project well back of the Atlanta Braves, but after failing to acquire an impact bat, there were still a few wins to squeak out of a rotation spot at the expense of trotting John Lannan out there every fifth day. Three wins (which might be optimistic) might keep them hanging around long enough to keep their fan base excited throughout the summer and if the ball bounces their way more often than not, perhaps even flirt with a wild card birth.

And heck, even if the wheels fall off, Jackson should be pretty easy to unload at the trade deadline for some toolsy kind of kid few have heard of in Portland.

But Jackson has been rather sneaky-valuable in fantasy circles and according to Mock Draft Central, he’s being selected right around the 19th round in standard 12 team drafts, so he doesn’t come at a high price. Does this move to Washington help or hurt his fantasy value (assuming he passes the physical, of course)?

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I tend to get rather obsessed about starting pitchers, strikeouts, and predictability – three things that go together like Tracy Morgan, funny stuff, and sanity. What keeps me up at night, and what I find particularly unnerving are sizable, unexplained variations from year to year. Why did Jhoulys Chacin go from 9.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011? Why did Ricky Nolasco go from 8.39 K/9 to 6.47? Jered Weaver from 9.35 to 7.56? When obvious indicators of age or injury aren’t there, the resulting chaos has me reaching for torches and pitchforks.

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With the regular season ending on a Wednesday, many leagues are having a 10-day week to end the year. Check your league’s rules to see how you are accounting for the last week! This list will assume the 10-day week.

Trevor Cahill – In 2010, Cahill lived a charmed life with a .236 BABIP. Fortune smiled upon Cahill once again as he began this year 6-0 with a .257 BABIP. But since May 15th, Cahill is 5-13 with a 5.33 ERA and a .318 BABIP. For the season, Cahill now has a 4.32 ERA and a .299 BABIP. And the only reason his ERA is that low is because of his home park, where Cahill’s ERA is over two and a half runs lower than his road mark. Cahill has one home and one road start, but his home game is against TEX. After handling the Rangers twice during his 6-0 start, Cahill has allowed 10 ER in 20 IP in his last three starts against them. Give Cahill a spot on the bench this week.

Edwin Jackson – By both FIP and xFIP, Jackson has pitched worse since his trade to the Cardinals but his results have been better, as he sports a 5-2 record with a 3.24 ERA in the National League. Jackson has enjoyed Busch Stadium, where he is 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA in six starts. Overall, he has eight Quality Starts in 10 games for St. Louis, with only a poor outing in Milwaukee where he allowed 4 HR dragging down his numbers. This week he gets home starts against the Mets and Cubs. Get Jackson into your lineup this week.

Mat Latos – While he has not pitched as well as last year, a 3.62 xFIP is still a good number and should have resulted in more than 7 Wins in 29 starts. In his last nine games, Latos has a 3.00 ERA with 15 BB and 55 Ks in 60 IP yet is only 2-4 in that span. Some might be scared off from starting Latos due to the road start in Colorado, but he has been decent in two starts this year in Coors (11 IP, 5 ER, .729 OPS against). Ride the hot hand and hope Latos breaks into the win column in one of his two starts this week.

Michael Pineda – After struggling through a rough patch right around the All-Star break in which he had a 7.64 ERA with 8 HR in 33 IP, Pineda has rebounded with four straight Quality Starts, with just 2 HR in 26 IP. The matchups are favorable for Pineda, as he has a road start in MIN and a home start versus OAK. The Twins and Athletics are the two bottom teams in the AL in HR. If you jumped off the bandwagon after his poor stretch, it’s time to get Pineda back in the lineup.

Javier Vazquez – When Vazquez followed up last year’s 5.32 ERA with a 3-6, 7.09 ERA start to 2011, it looked like he was done as a useful fantasy player, and perhaps as an MLB pitcher, too. But from mid-June forward, he has been a strong pitcher. In that span, covering 16 games and 101.2 IP, Vazquez has 18 BB, 93 Ks and 9 HR. In his rough stretch to start the year, Vazquez had 31 BB and 11 HR in 66 IP. On his May 15th start, Vazquez averaged 88.4 with his fastball and had just 3 swinging strikes in 90 pitches thrown. In his last outing, he averaged 91.3 with his fastball and had 10 swinging strikes in 113 pitches.

He’s a different pitcher now than he was earlier in the season. Vazquez has two home starts this week and he has a 3.61 xFIP with a 9.25 K/9 at Sun Life Stadium. And the pitching matchups are favorable, too. It all adds up to having Vazquez in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Sabathia, Halladay, Haren, Kershaw, Shields, Weaver, Lincecum, Wilson, Kennedy, Greinke, Lester, D. Hudson, T. Hudson, Marcum, Carpenter, Bumgarner, Jimenez, E. Santana, Worley, Scherzer, Romero, G. Gonzalez, Garza, Fister, Beckett, Hellickson, Oswalt, W. Rodriguez, A. Sanchez, Vogelsong, Lewis, Kuroda, J. Garcia, Holland, Lohse, Nova, Chacin, Buehrle, Lilly, Niemann, Nolasco, Floyd, Ogando, Collmenter, Stauffer, Dickey, Colon, Porcello, Morrow, McCarthy, Luebke, Norris, Lowe, Humber, Harden, Capuano, Burnett, Lackey, Minor, Hughes, Myers, Bailey, Davis, Carmona, Morton, Wells, Karstens, Arroyo, Britton, Westbrook, Vargas, Pavano, Cecil, Lannan, Guthrie, Alvarez, Surkamp, Narveson, Pelfrey, Pineiro, Volquez, Miley, Eveland, Williams, White, Penny, Paulino, Beavan, Huff, Hunter, Millwood, Sosa, Happ, Delgado, Volstad, Wang, LeBlanc, Simon, Lopez, Gomez, Furbush, Slowey, Ohlendorf, Milone, Cook, Swarzak, McGowan, Hendriks, Diamond, Coleman, Schwinden, Axelrod.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 23 pitchers and how they fared.

Collmenter – Advised to sit. 6 Ks, 6.10 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 7 ER
Garcia – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 14.09 ERA, 2.478 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 12 ER
Harden – Advised to sit. 10 Ks, 7.20 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, 5 IP, 4 ER
Vazquez – Advised to start. 2 W, 14 Ks, 0.69 ERA, 0.846 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Willis – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 5.14 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 7 IP, 4 ER

It’s been about a month and a half since the Cardinals dealt Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays, so why not check in on that whole situation?

– Since the move, Jon Jay has responded by hitting around .300 with a few homers in just over 30 starts for St. Louis. Unfortunately, he’s not really stealing bases, so it looks like he’ll simply be a batting average guy next year. It shouldn’t be too hard to snag him late in drafts, just don’t expect more than .290/10/5.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Edwin Jackson – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose peripherals from last year more closely matched what he’s done this year than Jackson. In 2010, Jackson had a 3.86 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP. This year the respective numbers are 3.83 and 3.71. Last year Jackson’s ERA was three-quarters of a run higher than his xFIP and this year it’s a half run higher than that. In 2011 he’s either been very good or really bad. And (coincidentally or not) he’s been really good at the Cell and, well you can guess how he’s been on the road. This week he has two road starts, so leave him out of your lineup if you can.

Mat Latos – Before last year’s drafts, I thought fantasy players were overvaluing Latos and he went out and posted a 3.78 K/BB ratio along with a 77.4 LOB%. This year, with his season delayed by a shoulder strain, Latos has not been the same pitcher. His K/BB is down to 2.50, still an impressive number but not what it was a year ago. His velocity has dropped 1.7 miles per hour from last year. Latos is also allowing more fly balls than a season ago and his HR rate is up, too. This week he has road starts against the Brewers and Rockies, typically two good HR parks, although Coors is not playing that way so far this year. If you can, err on the side of caution this week with Latos.

Ted Lilly – It’s been a ho-hum start of the year for Lilly but the good news is that he does not have to face the Cubs this week. Two of his last three starts have been against his former team and Chicago put up 10 ER in 10.1 IP versus Lilly in those two games. Against the rest of the league he has a 3.67 ERA. The Pirates have the next-to-worst OPS (.618) versus LH starters in the National League this year. Lilly’s other opponent this week is the Diamondbacks, who are middle of the pack versus LHP (.702) but who are last in the league in away runs scored. Part of that is because Arizona has played only 11 road games to date but part of it is that Chase Field helps their overall numbers. With Lilly on the road against the Pirates and home against the Diamondbacks, make sure he’s in your lineup.

Francisco Liriano – Not many pitchers can throw a no-hitter on a night where they allow six walks, but that’s what Liriano did in his last outing against the punch-less White Sox. It had been a disappointing season for Liriano prior to the no-hitter. Now the question becomes if he can use that as a springboard to get his season back on track. His strikeouts (5.51 K/9) are at a career-low while his walks (6.61) are at a career-high. This week he faces the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston leads the AL in walks (123) while Toronto is fourth (113). Give Liriano the week off if you can.

Brandon Morrow – An inured forearm sidelined Morrow at the beginning of the year but he has come back and made three starts in the majors. Last year, Morrow finished on a high note, as in his final 15 games he had a 3.53 ERA with 112 Ks in 89.1 IP. This year he has a 3.06 ERA with an 11.72 K/9, with Quality Starts on the road versus Tampa Bay and Texas. This week he goes up against Detroit and Minnesota. Tiger batters have the second-most strikeouts in the American League, while the Twins score the fewest runs per game (3.07) of any club in the loop. Make sure Morrow is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Price, Lester, Hanson, Cahill, Carpenter, Billingsley, Wilson, Scherzer, Pineda, Chacin, Zambrano, Greinke, Tomlin, E. Santana, Correia, Marquis, Arrieta, Wood, F. Garcia, Vazquez, Hammel, Capuano, Blanton, Karstens, Davies, A. Rodriguez, Collmenter.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 4 pitchers and how they fared.

Burnett – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Drabek – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 2.160 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. 2 Ks, 21.24 ERA, 4.071 WHIP, 4.2 IP, 11 ER
D. Hudson – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 6 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 5 ER

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.

Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.

Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.

Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.

Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.